I have just posted this thread on Twitter:
I took the weekend off writing. I deliberately wanted a break from commenting on the crisis that I think is coming. Having done so, and having done some other things as well as watching a little politics, I come back even more worried. A thread….
Like everyone else I could be wrong in assuming Liz Truss will be prime minister (PM), but I will take that risk. So what are the risks in that forthcoming premiership? They are numerous. They're all deeply troubling.
At its core the most troubling issue that we face is that Liz Truss is simply not a credible politician. She says nothing, commits to nothing, has never delivered an identifiable policy of consequence, and is clearly driven by dogma. Her indifference to redistribution proves that.
It would be easy to say that we have already got used to this. Johnson was an obvious disaster, after all. But this is not the same. Truss is as vacuous, although more dogmatic. But she also lacks two things Johnson had.
The first of these is charisma. Johnson had this in my opinion and that of most people. I think, as many will agree, that Truss lacks charisma. Second, unlike Johnson she becomes PM without the obvious support of most of her MPs.
We know that Sunak won the MP vote to be party leader. We know Truss has not won over many MPs who supported him. And worse, we know many MPs and most Tories would still prefer Johnson as PM, corrupt as he was.
In that case let us remember the basis on which an MP is invited to form a government. The assumption is that they can command a majority in the House of Commons. It is not clear that Truss will be in this position. At best she will be hostage to many factions in parliament.
I doubt any PM will come into office in such a weak position as Truss. There is already talk of MPs sending letters of no confidence in Truss to the 1922 Committee. I suspect that is true. And Sunak, Johnson and Gove will all be working to fuel that concern about Truss.
But let me add that the concern I have is not just about the micro-politics of the House of Commons and even the Tory party. There is the credibility of the whole of British and even the British government at stake here.
A country that can, in the absurd manner in which it has happened, end up with Truss as PM without her having the backing of her MPs and without her having won a general election, is not in possession of a credible constitution.
Nor can that country be considered credible when the PM selected in this extraordinary fashion has shown during her election campaign contempt for not just her own potential electorate but those also considered key political allies from France and the USA to the EU.
If there is going too be a sterling crisis (and because the dollar is overvalued due to the Fed's reckless interest rate policy this is likely) it's not down to economics: it will be because the chance that anyone outside the UK will believe in Truss is very low indeed.
In a country where Johnson did his best to bankrupt politics, Truss has the aim of finishing the job. A look at her supposed ideas for her time in office makes clear how bad things will be.
She plans tax cuts for the rich. They will save the net benefits and not spend them. There will then be no stimulus for growth. There will be no trickle-down, as there never is. There will just be a shortage of government revenue as an excuse for more austerity.
When people already have nothing to lose as they cannot pay their bills Truss will take on the unions, thinking herself like Thatcher for doing so. She cannot win but she can wreck services by trying, and likely will.
Unless there is the most massive U turn millions of households will not get the help that they need this winter. I suspect those on lowest incomes will, just about.
But middle earners will not, and as I have argued before now, they have no margins left for the decent lifestyles they thought within their grasp. In that case she will alienate the group she has to keep on side at the next election, which is staggering.
And so far we have heard nothing from her about support for business. Cuts in corporation tax make no difference when you are making a loss and facing liquidation. Truss clearly does not get that. Expect hundreds of thousands of businesses to fail and millions of jobs to be lost.
Do not expect Truss to care: Thatcher created 3 million unemployed and was hailed as a hero: Truss expects the same.
Thatcher was saved by a war, of course. Expect Truss to look for one. The difference is that we do not have the forces, or allies, to fight one.
But political turmoil will be created, in Northern Ireland in particular, where the abandonment of the Protocol is going to cause immense problems.
And Scotland will be rightly enraged by the demand that 50% of the electorate must vote for independence if it is to happen when no such demand was made for Brexit.
Talking of Brexit, Truss says she is going for growth. Outside Brexit she has not a hope, even if this is the right goal in a world heading for net-zero, but the born-again are always the worst, and Truss is a born-again Brexiteer.
The fact that Labour will not talk Brexit either is a massive issue here. Certainly, the fact that the two UK major political parties will not talk about what is so very obviously the cause of much of the malaise in the UK is enough to deter any investor from coming here.
Worse, companies and individuals are going for that reason: nothing will be solved in the UK until the disaster that is Brexit is faced.
Nor will anything be solved until we have government that believes in government again. Truss does not. She believes in shrinking the state when the state is needed more than ever.
But Labour also refuses to talk about nationalisation. It's as if there is a collective desire to destroy the credibility of the body politic by mutual denial that there are solutions to the problems that we face. Labour enables Truss as a result.
As bad, Labour is also fixated on solutions that are designed to bail out energy companies and not people, and which hopelessly inappropriately target help for those who need it and give much to those who don't.
What did we do to deserve this? We believed that the individual was more important than society. And we believed greed was good. And that there was a trickle down to the poorest. We were wrong to believe any of this. We need each other and to care.
Truss doesn't care. Labour doesn't care enough to talk about what matters. And this is happening when politics is likely to melt down as Truss fails to address the issues that we face in this country.
The outcome? Either a move to the very far right, or a resurgence of real democracy. The former is more likely. The latter is what we have to work for.
Truss has to be the last PM of her type: out of touch with a country that never chose her and with a mandate from almost no one. We have to hope for better. Will we get it? I do not know.
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What is truly going to be destructive here is this notion that Truss has taken up a sort of Thatcherite mantle – hard line, conviction type politics.
As I have alluded to before though, that was Thatcher’s image/perception management at work as she was capable of change if she felt she was not taking the party and the country with her (until that is she began to swallow her own myth which led to her downfall).
What people like Truss, Raab and the like (and user/opportunists like Rees-Mogg) don’t realise is that they are actually doing their heroine Thatcher a disfavour which to me is always the sign of an extremism.
Such followers who become leaders are fated to fail because they were always followers and never leaders.
The consequences of this for the country are dire. But we must cling to the hope that the consequences for the Tories could be bad too. We talk about political suicide notes when we talk about the Labour party.
The Tory leadership campaign has been an even longer suicide note.
But when we look at the Tory ability to get into power, I’d love to be a fly on the wall to see how low they going to stoop in the next 5 years.
My worry is that Labour is not only being out fought, but out thought too. Things are going to get very dirty indeed.
Very well thought out and concise summary of our upcoming lives under an unelected turnip
You often explain how Liz Truss, with most politicians and commentators, fail to misunderstand critical aspects of economics. With climate, it is worse. Liz Truss seems to be oblivious, as are the newspaper tycoons – which means that the public is not prepared for restrictions that are essential if coming generations are to have a fair chance of living productive lives. CO2 emissions must be cut and now!
“Major sea-level rise caused by melting of Greenland ice cap is ‘now inevitable’ (Guardian 29 August https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/29/major-sea-level-rise-caused-by-melting-of-greenland-ice-cap-is-now-inevitable-27cm-climate)” “The minimum … sea-level rise deficit that we have accrued to date [is] going to get paid out, no matter what we do going forward,” said Dr William Colgan of the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland. “Whether it’s coming in 100 years or 150 years, it’s coming.” But he highlights the difference “that can be made through implementing the Paris agreement. There is still a lot of room to minimise the damage.”
At the other pole, “The analysis shows that keeping below 2C of global heating, the upper limit agreed by the world’s nations in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, would result in East Antarctic Ice Sheet contributing less than 0.5m of sea level rise by 2300. But continued high emissions and a temperature rise well above 2C would result in a rise of 1.5 metres to 3 metres by 2300 and up to 5 metres by 2500. (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/10/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-in-our-hands-climate-action)
The article refers to “profound consequences for millions of people in coastal cities from New York City to Shanghai.” London – and your area of East Anglia – will not escape.
I agree
In a stare-at-a-car-crash way, Truss is going to be fascinating, if only for the answer to one of the key questions: is she planning on following the Britannia Unchained model or not? I have re-read this recently, and it is clear her Tory-member hustings speeches were based, still, on those ideas. Its core of course is – all British workers are lazy and have to be made to work harder, longer and for less money, venture capital should be encouraged into everything, and let’s deregulate everything as well, removing Health and Safety rules and conditions of work – and then sit back to watch the magical growth. This also clearly involves not supporting anyone or any business that cannot survive without support (the phrase Zombie Businesses was not used in BU in 2012, but has been since). But – though I doubt it – it is possible sheer naked desperate need to keep the economy afloat may just persuade Truss to help in real ways, not just tax-allowance ones for the rich. Truss obviously didn’t write Britannia Unchained (Unhinged), and most think it was Raab, but she’s got a strong record of having no idea and following whatever firm advice she’s given by her allies. So we’ll see. Shortly.
Is there any chance of her announcing an unexpectedly generous package on energy and then a snap general election do you think?
Yes
Except the Tories are massively behind in the polls and people will not forgive the distraction when action is needed
I’m pretty convinced that the only reason why Truss will win is because she is white.
Let’s be brutally honest about this.
If Sunak was white with a surname like Ponsonby-Smyth he would have beaten Truss hands down.
The Tory membership is mostly white, male and over 50. I suspect that a large number of them are ex-UKIP/Brexit Party supporters as well although I have no proof of this, just guesswork on my part. The Tories have clearly shifted to the right, more so after Johnson’s purges. They are a racist party with a number of token Asian and Black MP’s (are Lab much better?).
I see Truss as more of an opportunist than anything else. She clearly models herself on Thatcher.
If only the opposition would wake up I think there is a once in a lifetime chance to sink the Tories to the waist bin of British politics. How to do that? Here’s four policies that would give the people a genuine choice next time.
1) The nationalization of Gas, electricity and water. Make it a national security issue. The alternative being the Tory free market and being in the pocket of the likes of tin-pot Putin. It amazes me that Starmer and the Labour leadership cannot see this. They are playing into the Tories hands on this. At the very least they could call for the nationalization of the National Grid. That would immediately take away the standing charge element of our energy bill from the private energy companies. By the way, I think we should all call the standing charge for what it is – an energy Poll Tax. It is not based on what you can pay, in fact it penalizes the worst off as those on pre-payment meters pay a higher standing charge. It’s a modern day Tory Energy Poll Tax.
2) A commitment to a wide ranging green energy economic alternative with an aim to become energy independent.
3) A new deal for the NHS.
4) A new working relationship with the EU based on rejoining the single market. We are seeing the fantasy now of the idea that we can trade with the rest of the world as against our nearest neighbors. We were quite good at trading with the EU. Covid, Brexit, Putins war and runaway inflation show the fantasy of relying too much on markets thousands of miles away.
I would also add in PR as number five, but I fear that Labour still believe in FPTP (well the leadership does). I genuinely believe that Labour can only be radical under a PR voting system. As long as we have FPTP the Tories stay alive. With PR they can be killed off. They really have no friends anymore in other parties, accept maybe the DUP and they stabbed them in the back recently. Even Farage hates them.
“I would also add in PR as number five, but I fear that Labour still believe in FPTP (well the leadership does). I genuinely believe that Labour can only be radical under a PR voting system. As long as we have FPTP the Tories stay alive. With PR they can be killed off. They really have no friends anymore in other parties, accept maybe the DUP and they stabbed them in the back recently. Even Farage hates them.”
Labour – the tories best friends. Refusing to get rid of FPTP in 1997 – 2010, refusing to form a progressive alliance now, and still deternmined to keep FPTP.
Tory enabling
Spot on comment on Labour’s shameful complicity.
FPTP is widely acknowledged by political scientists as having a built-in right wing bias and so it would be far more appropriate to call it for what it really is: ‘TORY Past The Post’.
Meanwhile Labour’s electoral calculus leads them to think a ruined nation, with one of the most unequal societies in the developed world, is a worthwhile trade for them to get ‘their turn’ in power a 1/3 of the time. Hell mend them.
Truss is out of touch, of that there is no doubt. However there is still a significant proportion of the UK that agrees (although agrees suggests a thought process has occurred even though it is absent) with everything she and her sort say. Should she offered up a turd sandwich she’d be hailed as the leader who saved all.
Truss just appears to spew forth jargon and meaningless slogans and, when something doesn’t get a positive response or is quickly proved to be rubbish, u-turns and spews out different jargon and slogans.
I think she’ll be worse than The Quockerwodger – in fact, probably Quockerwodger II !!
Craig
The key points : ‘Truss doesn’t care. Labour doesn’t care enough to talk about what matters. ‘
So scary – how do we get Labour to talk about what matters? I suppose they finally issued their energy price freeze when it was the only half-credible policy left. Maybe they can eventually be convinced that baling out people is better than baling out corporations and so start caring and talking more about what matters..
How long before Truss reinvents herself as being one of the Mitford sisters?
I’m sorry but Marp by making this accusation against conservative members the same can be placed against Labour. When will they appoint a female leader?
John
My accusation?
That the Tory Party might just be a touch racist? Personally I don’t think much of Sunak, but of the two he is far better qualified than Truss to be leader. I also doubt whether Truss would have beaten a white Tory male with Sunak’s experience. I think the older Tory membership is probably just a little bit racist in a “I’m not a racist, but….” way. If you get my drift.
As for Labour I did say (are Lab much better?). About time they had a woman leader and I can think of one or two who would probably be better than Starmer, although none seem to be in favour of PR, or they are just keeping quiet.
Hmm – do we really need to talk identity and gender politics when we are talking about the Tory party, eh?
Really?
Yes – the Tory party has had female leaders and PMs, BAME chancellors etc., – smashing, super.
But can’t you see that the uniforming factor here is WEALTH – not racial or gender identity. The enabling factor therefore is culture based – some form of financial success or experience?
I find that when I look at wealth, all that matters is the size of your wad as it were – your gender, the colour of your skin, straight, gay whatever – if you’ve entered that exclusive club, none of that matters.
Because you are in a culture of worshipping and acquiring wealth. That is the only qualification you need in today’s Tory party.
Think about it.
I’ve been reading your material for years Richard, and, as you know, occassionally putting in my comments, for what they’re worth, which is probably not much in comparison to many of your more knowledgeable and well read contributors, e.g PSR, Mike Parr, Andrew Broadbent, John Warren, and so on. I’ve also read The Courageous State, some years ago now.
I have to say, it’s not cheerful reading! Frequently, I feel I should not bother, and just do what I know loads of people now do, which is ignore the news altogether, so bleak is the situation, both here and worldwide.
But as Dostyevsky said, ‘it is better to know the truth and be unhappy than to live in a fool’s paradise’. So, though I ignore much of the TV news, I do still listen to it (when I’m feeling strong enough) on R4. And I keep reading this blog.
Ignoring or denying bad news is, after all, responsible for much of our present ills e.g re the climate and nature emergencies.
So sticking just to the benighted UK for now, my thoughts re Truss. Simply, as you say, she will be a disaster. As bad, or worse, than Johnson. To quote you Richard;
“I doubt any PM will come into office in such a weak position as Truss. There is already talk of MPs sending letters of no confidence in Truss to the 1922 Committee. I suspect that is true. And Sunak, Johnson and Gove will all be working to fuel that concern about Truss.”
Bloody Hell!!! that quick!?
It’s almost funny really, if it wasn’t for the fact this appalling woman will be in charge precisely when we need someone of real quality and depth to get us out the disaster of 12 years of hopeless tory administrations.
From my PoV as civil servant, I have plenty of reasons to view her as a disaster.
The tories have treated the CS with nothing but contempt since 2010. Real terms pay cuts, attempts to reduce the redundancy compensation payouts (they’re at it again now ahead of their mooted 20% cuts), blaming the CS for not negociating the impossible re Brexit, and finally, glory of glories, telling us to stop WFH when they spent the 10 years prior to the pandemic telling us to get out of expensive London office space, so that when some civil servants went back to the office, there weren’t enough desks for them.
And then there’s this gem from her leadership campaign. Truss publishing a plan that targets “woke civil service culture that strays into antisemitism”. My late uncle was the son of German Jews who left Germany 6 months after Hitler came to power. And Truss is accusing me of being an anti-semite!!!
Now that she’s become PM, she’ll presumsbly put round the obligatory note saying how much she values the CS, blah, blah, blah…….as do all incoming PM’s. The joke here is that she’ll mean it even less than Johnson. I remember his one. Short, lazily written from a man who couldn’t give a toss.
Hers will be even more ludicrous. Unfortunately for her, she’ll need the CS to implement her policies, so pissing it off isn’t likely to be very succesful. I am lost for words.
Thanks
Well, well. I have just listened to Paul Johnson (IFS) interviewed on BBC Radio Scotland News (around 1.10pm); asked if Truss is going to require a “magic money tree”, Johnson repled: “she is going to discover one”. Developing the theme of her finance credentials as a past Secretary to the Treasury, Johnson went on “she was a fan of austerity”, at a time when – he says: “we could borrow cheap” and there was “a respectable argument for borrowing more”.
Blow me over with a feather ……. how the chickens eventually come home to roost, whie economists coollly rewrite history (but only when there is nowhere else to go). This comes from the school of ‘we always knew how it worked’. I think we are expected to believe that this farce, politically isneither here nor there; while the miscreants indulge in a self-congratulatory Party campaign, and intednto cling on, spending over £100Bn (or whatever it takes to stay in Downing Street), just to clean up the worst short-term effects of the Conservative mess they have made of government.
A note of caution. Truss is demonstrably a shape shifter. That is her one talent. She shape shifted to win over those white and racist party members and she’ll shape shift again to accommodate her backers. There is a path to winning the next election. If her backers decided to propel her on a journey of national salvation, she could, with enormous help from the billionaire press, win. Labour has provided dismal opposition. Truss could easily match its plan. If she began to suprise the commentators the story would quickly gain momentum. Labour would struggle to get a foothold. Tory strategists must know this. Truss would only need to remember her lines.
Millions of bankrupt households will not be fooled
Households won’t be bankrupt though as there is a freeze on energy prices .. why exaggerate?
Bills are set to be at least £2,500 – way more than double what they were a year ago
And you are ignoring other inflation and massive mortgage cost increases
Please stop talking nonsense