As the FT reports this morning:
Britain's chemicals sector faces a £2bn hit from post-Brexit red tape, twice the cost of initial industry estimates, as the government sets up its own regulatory regime, ministers have warned.
Despite Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak promising to “axe EU red tape” during the Tory leadership campaign, the cost of bureaucracy after leaving the bloc is mounting.
The evidence that Brexit is phenomenally costly is growing by the day - but still the idiots in politics promote the idea that it was the right thing to do and is irreversible.
Starmer said his priority was 'growth, growth, growth' yesterday. If it really was he'd have announced that the UK is planning a return to Europe, over time. He didn't. As such his claim is not credible.
And the Tory arguments are just lies.
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As has been pointed out elsewhere the Brexiteers, for the most part have never had to deal with ‘abroad’
But the big issue with international trade these days isnt so much tariffs, although using the example of a Christmas Pudding, that can be bad enough but standards. Customs will want to know does this ….. comply with our regulations? If there is no mutual recognition of standards in place then it can be very difficult and expensive to ship things across borders.
Starmer is beyond woeful. The Brexit issue is in sheer numbers terms his biggest blooper. In its wake there trail his ‘chancellor’s’ nonsense ‘new’ rules, his defaulting on renationalising rail etc etc.. As to his 5 main goals/promises for a Labour government, not one of them is remotely capable of implentation given his thralldom to right-wing economic nonsense. All that is before we get to his adamantine pledge not to allow democracy to work in Scotland. What, oh what is Labour for? Apparently nothing more than providing parliamentary careers/playpens for its leading lights – always providing they are turned down to utter dimness!
In terms of Brexit, I think you are being harsh on Starmer. He is between a rock and a hard place surely? I am certain that he knows that economically Brexit is a disaster and that it is going to get worse; I think the economic can be argued well enough for a lot of Leave voters get it. However, and sadly, the emotional and ideological argument is currently not winnable and may not be for another five, 10 or 15 years. We literally need people like my Daily Mail reading mother-in-law to shuffle off and the generation unable to vote and denied the aspirations of the UK being in the EU to get a bit miffed at the situation and campaign for re-entry.
What is worse than a Starmer led Labour government from Dec 2024? A Truss or Sunak led government. As woeful as he may appear to be, Starmer (I think) is playing the long game. Why press a policy that has no guarantee of success at the moment, and he may be reasonably assuming that even if we want to go back, the French or another nation in the EU may veto it? If, at the moment, Labour stands only for ‘not Tory’, that’s certain to get my vote in 2024. Naturally I want more than that, but – what did Johnson say? – ‘them’s the breaks’.
I am unexcited by suboptimality
The notion that this is all a ‘long game’ seems just more smoke and distorting mirrors. If there were any signs at all that at least some of the promises Starmer made when getting his job were being stuck to, such a gradualist ‘strategy’ might be arguable. But there are no such signs and those that flickered but a week ago have already been snuffed out – and even when there is huge polling evidence that those policies were popular. Worse – the whole of Starmer, and others in the new leadership’s philosophy seems totally detached from anything that looks like defence of ordinary people’s interests – the kind of things that Labour once existed to fight for. And just where in the ‘long game’ view does one put the imperial dismissal of the democratic case for a fresh Scottish Independence referendum? I’m afraid that if it talks and ‘thinks’ like a Tory free marketeer and flinches from the interests of ordinary folk whenever they are attacked – it probably isn’t anything other than what it looks like; the same but with a slightly less expensive suit. Of course, Truss is crazy and incoherent and will be a disaster – but that doesnot change the fact that Starmer, if he wins, will just be a crash of a slightly different shape on a slightly different time scale. That is not a real electoral choice – especially in a voting system, which he shows no signs of changing for the better.
Starmer has no diplomacy of compromise between Leave and rejoiners whatsoever. He just shut all the door at the rejoiners instead of simply saying: ” It is not up to us a ministers to rejoin the single market and the customs union but if one day the majority of the British people decide to change their minds after realising the economy is under performing because of Brexit, we will not be able to stand in their way because at the end of the day it is the will of the people that counts not the will of parliament or government”. This way, he would not give any ammunition to the Brexiters and the Brexit media to start attacking him from every direction. I do not think he is a shrewd politician because his recent announcement can risk Labour losing even millions of Pro EU electorates by voting any party but Tory and Labour. As for “making Brexit work” slogan by cutting red tape etc, he should know, there is no way he would be able to do that as long as the UK does not join the single market and the customs union. He will be flogging a dead horse.
Starmer’s best policy would be to say “I am listening to the concerns expressed by a number of people. They say-list of negatives- and we have to take them into account.”
He could then be ‘persuaded’ that re-joining the single market would be better than putting up with the disadvantages. That might mitigate the criticism “he is going against what we voted for” which seems to be Labour’s fear.
At some point, however, he will have to show leadership which is risky.
I suspect in a year’s time ‘being a supporter’ of Brexit will be something many will be wanting to keep quiet.
( I saw fascinating article about support for the Iraq war. It looked at measured support at the time and how people today remember their support or opposition. It found that many more today thought they opposed the war than seems to have been the case)
Sunak or Truss or Starmer…..does it really make much difference?
Not a lot
Both will be a disaster
I have been looking at Labour discussion sites. So many seem convinced that a ‘real socialist’ program would attract wide popular support. I think a thoughtful radical program, of the sort of ideas that get discussed here might do so, but the appeal of “Socialism” is limited in numbers, even though many of its supporters are quite dedicated.
In France and Germany there were/are split off socialist parties. They got no more than 10% and the country got Conservative governments. In the last election the German Social Democrats returned to power, albeit in coalition. Die Linke was down to 5%.
Self delusion is widespread.
Socialism is a diversion
But we do want non-neoliberal social democracy
Meanwhile Stephen Kinnock is part of the organisation publishing proposals to introduce daily stay charges in the NHS. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/24/charge-patients-for-hospital-stays-to-help-fund-nhs-says-report
No denial from Labour or comment about it. Just what the Conservatives need- permission to go ahead and introduce more and ever higher charges in the NHS. Just as Labour introduced student fees so they now seem intent on helping the destruction of the NHS. If only people would wake up- time for mass resignation from the Labour party it is now just a version of Conservatives.
I find that staggering….
I despair when I read items like this.
Alleged pro-Europeans who are against health care being provided in a more European way.
I presume you are aware that the NHS already has a significant amount of services being provided by USA insurance companies – we are not heading towards a European model of healthcare but are rapidly heading towards a USA one.
Charging for bed stays – especially when people are “forced” to stay in hospital because there is no social care – causes huge admin costs for very little gain and a great deal of pain for many people.
There will soon be a huge number of voters entirely disenfranchised from politics altogether waiting to be scooped up as there are no left wing parties now to vote for.
There have been mass resignations from the Labour Party. It’s only half the size it was when Corbyn was in charge. Not all resignations; Starmer has removed lots of people, but still half the size.
For the most part party politics seems corrupted and broken – there is no effective opposition to the government – just a space where it used to be. I have voted for and campaigned for Labour for years but don’t have the heart to continue. Disappointed supporters try to excuse Starmer saying he is “playing the long game” waiting for 2024 – keeping quiet to avoid the viciously destructive force of the Daily Mail et al. But everything he does suggests that not only does he believe that the only way Labour can win power is by appearing to support a neo-liberal agenda but that he actually believes this is the only way to go. The Green Party seem to have some very interesting ideas but many people see them as an environmental movement rather than a contender for power. They need to get out on every High Street – with a table full of leaflets – talking to people about their policies, they need to get on TV and radio. Labour is a busted flush – it has been struggling with an identity crisis ever since the decline and death of heavy industry and mining – it’s time that mass support swung away from them towards a party that will really challenge the neo-liberals and give people hope for the future.
have to agree @ellie comber
as rebecca long bailey said the other day “you can’t fatten a pig on market day”
you need a transformative set of policies that you believe in (and can defend from the daily heil) and go sell them to the people, let them decide!
Presumably, any UK regulatory regime for chemicals would be rather loose increasing the costs to the environment and to society as a whole. The idea will be of course to undercut the EU. Not by being best of course – just by being cheap and cheerful (hazardous).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/26/british-wine-wholesaler-leave-uk-over-post-brexit-paperwork
Another Brexit bonus (not)