I have just Tweeted this thread:
There is talk of war this morning. A thread….
Putin clearly agreed to take no action against Ukraine during the winter Olympics. The need to keep China on side shows how weak his position really is. It also suggests war could start tomorrow.
That Putin could win territorial gains in Eastern Ukraine appears indisputable.
That there is nothing that the West will do to stop him doing so, as also happened when he annexed Crimea and other parts of Eastern Ukraine in 2014, is also certain. No one has the ability to mount a military campaign to stop him.
But that does not mean that what is possible should happen. I do not for a moment agree that Russia has any justification for its actions.
At the same time I am profoundly disappointed by the responses of the UK government and those of other nations to this crisis. They are not calling out what this whole issue is really all about. There are at least four issues that underpin this situation.
The first is imperialism. Russia is seeking to recreate its empire. It is time that imperialism of all sorts was consigned to history, but too many in the West retain commitment to it for them to say so.
Second, this is about male aggression. But then, so too is the response. This picture of the lunch at Saturday's Munich Summit where white males were the only participants is clear indication of that.
Third, this is about the command of resources. Few wars have ever been about anything else. There have been wars that are not economically motivated, but they are rare.
Fourth, this is about illicit behaviour. Russia has no right to Ukrainian assets. But then, many Russian leaders' claims over assets are illicit. But that is also true of many Ukrainian leaders' claims as well. We need to understand the consequences.
There have always been illicit claims to assets. What has changed is that in the last forty or so years the mechanisms for making those claims have been widely promoted in the name of supposed economic freedom.
All the apparatus of tax havens, backed up and supported by the City of London, has been used to facilitate illicit claims to which blind eyes have been turned.
That Johnson is now saying sanctions against illicit funds in London might be taken is the clearest indication that although this has been possible for a long time we have chosen not to enforce the laws that might have let us prevent abuse.
Why does this matter? Because what the West has very clearly said for a long time is that the UK and other countries will turn a blind-eye to Russian illicit assets and as a result Russia has come to believe that making claim on such assets is acceptable.
Of course I cannot be sure that there is a direct causal relationship between tax haven and City of London corruption and the Russian belief that the West is indifferent to its corruption, but the likelihood that this relationship exists seems very high to me.
According to Boris Johnson we are facing World War III. I think that exceptionally unlikely, simply because it is entirely predictable that there will be no military involvement in Ukraine. I therefore think the claim unjustified.
I also think it exceptionally unlikely that Putin will move against any other country. The balance of risks from doing so would simply be too high within the equation of causations that I have noted above. Putin knows that.
But there is a matter to resolve, and that is the corruption. There is a war needed now. It is a war on corruption that is required.
The City has to swept clean, and if that means lawyers, bankers and accountants cannot survive the process, so be it.
Tax havens need to be consigned to history.
If we are to eliminate the risks arising from avarice, from corruption, from illicit behaviour, and the nodded complicity with this that countries like the UK have provided, then we need genuine transparency.
We are suffering the consequence of limited liability. Putin has limited liability in one sense for his actions in Ukraine. He and we know that.
But we are also suffering the consequence of the abuse of limited liability companies that have been used to hide actions from view without belief that consequences follow.
That has to change. We need details of ownership and the full accounts of every limited liability company on public record now, without any exceptions. That is the price we must pay to end corruption.
If we need action as a result of what is happening in Ukraine it is that we need this renewed focus on transparency and accountability. They are really what democracy is all about. And we have forgotten that fact.
There is no transparency and accountability in Russia.
There is precious little here in the UK either, in truth. We have a prime minister and royal family who think that the law does not apply to them. That should be as shocking here as it is in Russia.
What we need is a focus on these essential issues. We must do that to eliminate the culture of irresponsibility in pursuit of illicit gain undertaken with the connivance of cooperative states that has led us to where we are today.
The possible war in Ukraine is all about corruption resulting in dire consequences for some, and maybe many.
If there is to be a lesson from this day, this issue, and this war if it happens (and I sincerely hope it does not) it is that we need to beat the mechanisms that facilitate corruption that permit dire consequences to happen.
That is the only way for democracy to happen. It is the only way for democracy to win. It is the only way to turn opposition to Putin into a truly just cause.
Will that peaceful war for openness, transparency and accountability, which will have victims and a cost in a society ridden with corruption like ours, happen? I do not know. But I am certain it should be pursued.
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There is a touch of “Louis Renault” about this – I am shocked, shocked to find there is gambling going on here.
Chelsea FC was bought in 2003 and was, perhaps, the first trade that made us sit up and notice the wave of Russian money coming into the UK… and that is nearly 20 years ago. Not for a moment would I suggest this or any other specific transaction is dodgy…. but there has been little effort over a long period to police this.
I think the people of Crimea and the Donbass should be able to determine their own future and not have it decided by some borders on some hastily made international agreements in which they had little involvement.
As these regions are, or were up till the evacuations, mainly Russian speaking then I would expect them to lean to Russia.
Just as Scots should be able to decide whether they are part of the UK, part of the EU, or fully independent of both.
But with respect, that’s not what is happening, is it?
Do you publish full accounts for your limited liability partnerships?
Yes
Reading between the lines here I see that what the West is actually up against is the ‘anarcho-capitalism’ that John Grey spoke of in 1998 – an even nastier version of the West’s post Neo-liberal revolution capitalism with even fewer scruples than its in-house version.
Post Neo-liberal capitalism has tied Western society in knots and enabled it to lose any ethical or moral superiority over the Chicago Boy derivatives’ around the world.
‘Putin’s People’ (2020) p.488:
‘It looks like the whole of U.S. politics is for sale’ said a former senior Russian banker with ties to the security services ‘We believed in Western values……………..But it turned out that everything depended on money and all these values were pure hypocrisy’ .
So there we – our whiter than white image rumbled by an adversary and there is very little to argue with in my view.
The problem with this is that Russia does just not take us seriously anymore.
Until that is – as you suggest above – we get our own bloody house in order.
Russia had two choices in my view after the collapse of communism. (1) Open itself up to North American capitalism and lose its assets to foreigners like many countries have already done to their detriment or (2) contrive to embrace Western style capitalism on its own terms but ensure ownership is entirely Russian.
It has chosen (2) and I can’t blame them to be honest. Their view is better a Russian billionaire rather than another Western one.
I bet the West at one stage was rubbing its hand in glee, thinking that it was dealing with a bunch of idiots. And now its got more than it bargained for. The Western disease is always one of underestimating the opposition and over estimating ourselves, exclusively by the way at the very top.
Reform is essential in the West – as is penitence and lots of it.
Pilgrim
I think you raise an important point. In 1990 the Chicago school economists were brought in to oversee the transition to capitalism. The result was a fall in the value of the Rouble, looting of public assets by the Oligarchs, savings wiped out and widespread misery. The average age of death fell (though this had been falling in the late 80s). People were reduced to selling medals and even themselves, to foreigners for foreign currency. People do not forget that sort of humiliation and when Putin can use implicit threats to cause foreign leaders to come to Moscow and pay court, they will cheer. If Putin were only using the situation to elevate his reputation. that would be a sufficient reason. But he is also elevating his nation. I am not enamoured of this style of politics but it exists. It is realpolitik. Some people are still impressed by power. It is what excited the MAGA people.
Part of me is suspicious about the American approach. Trump urged Europe to shut down the gas pipeline and the US and Saudi Arabia would sell Europe the gas. Biden also needs a win for this November’s mid-term elections because if the Republicans gain control of either House, his ability to implement his program, which people voted for by a significant majority, will be at an end.
It seems to me the Minsk accords is the only way forward. It allows the existing boundaries and some devolution of Russian speaking areas. The fighting and suspicions have stopped it happening. Crimea was Russian until 1954 and it is very likely the majority of people do want to be part of Russia. If it were possible to have an internationally supervised referendum and a result obtained , we might be able to de-escalate the confrontation. France and Germany have not joined in the Cold War rhetoric and their approach may bring that about.
Ian
Thank you. I remember those days for the Russian people – there was no smooth transition from one system to the other as Gorbachov had pleaded for – it was shock therapy Chicago style.
The West made modern Russia what it is today. We are culpable – make no mistake – we created this form of anarcho-capitalism which is just reactionary – a reaction to our own sanctimonious hypocrisy. We peed in the wind – now its coming back with interest.
I was studying housing as the time and doing a comparative studies module and we looked social housing in post communist Baltic states – we had some housing academic over to tell us what happened. Basically – over night – the tenants in blocks of flats lost their state landlord and had to become managers of their own blocks of flats without any culture of devolved or local management or skills. It was a free for all. And some made out like bandits and the condition of the housing stock deteriorated. It was a complete mess.
We did not bring Russian in from the cold; we just set the free market logic working , locked our doors and sat back and watched them freeze to death instead. And what’s more some of us enjoyed it – to my eternal shame.
You are so right about the need for a war on corruption Richard. Andrew Rawnsley has painted a similarly clear picture of the grim current state of affairs:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/20/britain-has-had-royal-political-and-policing-scandals-before-but-never-all-three-at-once
And as for the reprobate Johnson, his prediction of WW3 will be seen as a puerile attempt to distract from his own predicament and a pathetic hope of posturing as another Churchill ready to save the world.
I noted, and may still comment on his piece here
In my view it was Rawnsley’s best piece in a very long time even though he failed to mention that much of our woes are driven by a mixture of obscene wealth leading to people who think they are untouchable to poorly paid goons who seem to make up the modern police force.
Having said that, he – like the good modern centrist that he is – avoided casting his mind back to some of New Labour’s shenanigans (and the Tories have really just copied how NL managed the cabinet) and a certain Mr Blair where perception management all started (sorry – I never forgave Rawnsley for his character assassination of Gordon Brown given what happened during Iraq and all that).
BTW I’m speaking as someone who read Anthony Gidden’s ‘Beyond Left & Right’ only to find even more disingenuous excuses in the pursuit of wealth than had been written before.
It is damn scary that there is talk of funding and arming para military groups within Ukraine – these are neo nazis and not something we should be having anything to do with. Reminds me of funding the groups who became the Taliban and we can all see where that ended.
I believe that any discussion on the Ukraine should include an analysis of Nato policy and its aggressive expansion eastwards since the collapse of the Soviet Union. I repeat a point I have made several times. The Munroe Doctrine, in practice the basis for suppression of every progressive regime throughout Latin and Meso America for over a century, is just fine, but Russia drawing a red line for Nato isn’t! Nato understood from the inception of its policy that this point would be reached. This needs to be debated if we are to retain peace in Europe. Lambasting Russia, Putin and oligarchs is fine, but leaving it at that is just joining the media chorus. Demonisation, even justified demonisation, is not a satisfactory substitute for rational debate. Sorry, but I am disappointed by the drift of this discussion.
According to the late Andro Linklater’s book Owning the Earth ( 2013) 55 per cent of Ukraine’s farmlands were owned by corporations , and 13.5 per cent of Ukraine’s land in 2011 belonged to just 40 foreign companies.
Something is going on in the Ukraine but it looks like inter-imperialist rivalry to me.
It does to me too
Wow!
So much for relying on journalism to tell us what is really going on!! This adds a whole new angle to events.
And I agree about NATO too for that matter – again, reflecting on this – much of the West’s attitude emerges as ‘triumphalism’ over former communist states really rather that adapting to changes or creating something new and more cooperative. That’s why things like NATO persist.
We seem to have come full circle with the Russians, but China is more interesting.
In the the Netflix film ‘Downfall’ about the faulty Boeing 737 Max, China was the first nation to ban the aircraft without instruction from America’s indecisive FAA and other countries followed suite and probably saved lives.
Was this a nation that can think for itself free of the bullshit that the West is used living with? Or was it more political? One minute the Chinese were meant to be building a nuclear power station for us and we were the best of mates; the next minute they’re a cruel and repressive regime again.
What is going on?
I wish I knew…
It is precisely this swapping of betes noires to suit the propaganda of the moment that should make our debates concerning these geopolitical issues more circumspect. Demonisation is a propaganda technique whenever it is deployed. It is not an analytical tool.
There appears to be some typical western views on what constitutes the nation state in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians speak Russian almost as a joint first language so the simplistic view that those in the East who mainly speak Russian and should therefore be allowed to self determine themselves as part of the Russian State is a dangerous view. What happens to those in the East who do not identify as Russian? Partition? Genocide? Ukraine was Russified to a certain extent during the Soviet period but that does not necessarily mean that the majority of the population want to be part of Russia as some wish to claim. The majority of Ukrainians wish to identify as Ukrainian and it is ridiculous to state otherwise. It is a similar stance to Sudeten Czechs identifying as Germans in the 30’s. That was a manifestation of Nazi Germany as a pretext to invade and it is the same in the current situation. The idea that Crimea was Russian until 1954 is also not as straight forward as it is presented. Post 1917 what many see as “Russia” was a conglomeration of Soviet Republics consisting of many different peoples. Russia itself recognised Ukraine as a nation and recognised Crimea as being part of Ukraine.
Absolutely agree with the dire necessity of taking action to stop corruption, particularly by Russian oligarchs. But as Simon Tisdall notes in todays Guardian, proxy wars have a dire record of death and destruction. For the Russian people to free themselves from Putin’s tyranny then support for rebel factions in Ukraine is dangerous game. Both the USA and the UK are currently arming one of the few open Neo- Nazi militias.
Yet the suggestion that Ukraine should be a full NATO member would be equivalent of the ‘red rag to the bull’ to Russians
When the Soviet Union collapsed
and when Putin , with a KGB background, came to power with the current despotic rule, Russia was willing to offer trade and cooperation to the West. The Guardian noted this in an article in 2021.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule
Effectively this offer was rejected and instead the West armed the surrounding states.
There has to be effective diplomacy with a desire to avoid a bloody war but not making Ukraine a full NATO member.
It seems glaringly obvious that Ukraine should not be in NATO
And undertakings were given that it would nit be, as I understand
What I am not sure about is why is Russia threatening to invade The Ukraine?
Let alone anything else
Imperialism
See my blog on Sunday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8KhRkbEld8
This is worth watching as a good summary of the background three weeks ago.
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