Danny Blanchflower on the coming recession

Posted on October 16 2021

I have already  discussed Danny Blanchflower's Peston lecture. It us now available on YouTube:

 

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2 Responses

  1. Michael G says:
    October 16 2021 at 10:40 pm

    Thank you for the link to a very interesting lecture.
    Before I am fully convinced of anything, I want two things: I need the numbers, but I also need a plausible mechanism. Either on its own is interesting, but not conclusive.
    David Blanchflower’s numbers are impressive, but what is the mechanism? Why does pessimism predict recession? Is it cause and effect? If so, why have people been so bad at predicting the consequences of Brexit or COVID mishandling? Why would polls suggest people think that the Government is doing a good job with the economy, while his data suggest that they also think the economy is going to tank?
    (By chance, on Wednesday I followed part of an online symposium on my old subject Genetics. Things have moved on so far in that field that I found David Blanchflower easier to understand. Though I did learn that elderly lady fruit flies have dodgy digestions)