I was in discussion with one of the very first baby-boomers yesterday. He was born just after the Second World War. What he suggested was something very interesting. He, and his generation, remember rationing, which lasted well into the 1950s. And, he suggested, maybe they will now see it again. I admit I had not thought about this until he suggested the idea, but in the intervening hours it has occurred to me how pertinent his comment might be.
Leave aside the fact that we have a Covid crisis still, although you would not believe it given the behaviour of so many in the UK. Instead focus on food supply crises in many forms, a general logistics crisis, a power crisis, political crises, a threat of enforced short working, and an economic crisis as many in the country will not be able to make ends meet through no fault of their own which may well be exacerbated by the fools at the Bank of England demanding interest rate rises and suddenly we are looking at a country in melt down.
That much of this has been self inflicted, by Brexit, by enforced undermining of working standards, by false business models that have ignored the importance of resilience, is beside the point for the moment. It is happening. And there is no sign that it is likely to get any better any time soon. Indeed, the suggestions are that it can only get worse and all we are seeing at present is the start of the chaos.
If this is true (and I accept that some (I stress, some) of these issues might resolve without full blown crises developing with regard to them) then there is a fundamental issue to be addressed, which is how the country keeps going. This, of course, is the ultimate test of resilience. That test arrives when markets fail and alternative measures have to be put in place to make sure that everyone can get access to what they need, even if they cannot have access to all that they want.
Does that mean rationing should be considered now? If not, why not, when it seems that we are on a one-way street to chaos at present? Wouldn't it be at least wise to presume that things might get worse and that appropriate measures might be required to ensure that everyone can access the basics of life?
We have, of course, done this before. It happened in WW2. We are not at war now. I hope we never will be again. But, in the face of a similar threat to supply chains why shouldn't the reaction in be the same - that need should overcome ability to pay so that the wellbeing of all can be guaranteed by rationing essential commodities?
This would, of course, indicate the failure of neoliberalism. Its demise would be far more dramatic than the so-called winter of discontent in 1978/79 that saw out the post-war consensus, when uncollected rubbish was the big issue (although I note the Guardian reporting this morning that a refuse collection crisis may also be on its way). But the real problem on this issue is that there is nothing to put in the place of neoliberalism as yet. Well nothing except a Green New Deal that is, because the left has no other ideas at present. So at the heart of all this there is an intellectual crisis, which is that of the failure of many on the left to consider any real alternatives to the market.
In the absence of such alternatives pragmatism will be required. I wouldn't rule out rationing as a result. In weeks to come many might begin to welcome the idea. I sincerely hope someone has a plan for it.
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I am not sure that things will get that bad. I think we do have a tendency to exaggerate “minor annoyances” into a “major crisis”… but I do accept that things could get a lot worse.
But the real purpose of this contribution is to say that we should welcome 1950s style rationing if it is needed. The point about 1950s rationing is that resources are spread fairly and according to need. 2020s style rationing is already at work – money and influence get what you want and stuff everyone else.
Been to a supermarket lately Clive?
It’s a pretty weird experience
Oddly enough for me, yes. I have been in 5 supermarkets in the last 12 days in various south coast harbours and had few problems. My failure to secure pork pies in Dover almost led to a mutiny but other than that most of the stuff we needed was there. Now back home the delivery coming today has nothing missing or substituted.
I don’t deny there are shortages – possibly severe in some areas. I don’t deny that it may well get worse….. but this in not my personal experience at this point.
But most importantly, if required, I would welcome rationing as a way to allocate rare resources rather than a “highest bidder” approach that we currently have.
I was in Wales at the weekend – and saw denuded shelves, and it’s not good around here
Yes have been today it’s fine,
Luck, then
Might it be the case that there is always some form of rationing by price?
Might neo-liberalism have made this form of rationing, which is tolerably effective when the distribution of wealth is reasonably equitable, less and less effective as it polarises wealth?
Trickle up rationing is an odd idea….
Well, we already have trickle-up wealth do we not?
Seriously, rationing as would be organised by this cabal of incompetents? Many will starve and the ensuring public disorder will be uncontainable due to the lack of security (police/army).
I have a feeling that this may be their moment of truth where reality catches up with ‘belief’.
I have been of that opinion for many years. My forecast was that it would happen during the first half of this year. Obviously that didn’t happen, but if the situation becomes worse, Brexit, Covid, and now energy prices, I think their introduction is inevitable.
Rationing? I’m a pre-baby boomer – a war baby born 1942 -and I remember rationing all too well. I remember as a schoolkid in the early fifties, us all besieging the local sweet shopround the corner from primary school when sweets came off the rationing. Our teeth deteriorated after that – great for dentists – we had healthier teeth when sweets were hard to get. I also remember dried eggs and whale meat and a single nob of butter that was to last a family all week – and the black market and spivs. Rationing was not egalitarian. You could get stuff easily enough if you had the money. Slip something to the butcher and he’d give you a nod and a wink and extra lamb chops in a surreptitious brown paper parcel from under the counter. But the poor couldn’t do that they had to make do with the nob of butter (that they still had to pay for and would sell to the less poor) and fatty gristly scraps from the butcher. But I agree, rationing – a great idea. But it isn’t going to happen. It should happen. But it won’t. No party is going to commit political suicide by introducing rationing. And it wouldn’t bring about a fairer distribution of wealth around the country. There would be a black market and modern spivs and brown paper parcels under the counter available for a price at a nob and a wink, and poor people selling their rations to the less poor.
1941. I too remember walking to the sweetshop and the first bar of chocolate for 6d. In Northern Ireland there was the additional chance to cross the border to where there was no rationing (except based on means).
Agree completely with my namesake. Rationing may be needed, but it won’t happen with this government.
Rationing will be inevitable if there is a shortage of the essentials of life as in WW2 and the 10 years after that. We had the 3 day week in the early 1970s and power outages under Heath’s Tory government so this Tory govt will be forced to do the same as there could only be 10 days of food stocks under the just in time supply chain system or gas if supplies are cut or prices rocket. Italy and Germany have 30 or 40 times the gas stored as the UK as they had the foresight to ride out any future supply crisis. Also, the oil crisis in the 1970s made the govt issue fuel coupons that were not used in the end so they have the capability of doing this. True when there is rationing there is the black market of the back street spivs who emulate their betters in the City, but this happens anyway whether there is a so-called free market or not.
One obvious suggestion I might make is that every domestic energy consumer could have the right to purchase a fixed amount of gas/electricity at a set price
I must admit that I am having difficulty in getting over my own revulsion toward the idea of rationing. I read and watched (when I still bothered with and had access to broadcast television) the seeming glee with which some members of the public recalled rationing with misty-eyed nostalgia rather than the anxiety-ridden gloom facing us in the cold light of today. Perhaps my issue remains (at least in part) due to witnessing the derranged joy of older Brexiteers choosing self-imposed scarcity and hardship because of some misplaced desire to return to a non-existant golden era that included what was then an unwanted cicumstance. I still find it galling that so many fell for Johnson’s unmitigated tosh so completely and easily. Yet another harmful outcome of the Tory’s (and rest of the far right’s) culture wars. Then again, it could also be that I am simply a product of my times and have become entirely expectant of having access to an apparently inexhaustible supply of goods and resources and all I’m doing is displaying my remaining liberal tendencies. Unfortunately I cannot imagine that any rationing system imposed by the Tories will prove to be equitable. I will be delighted to be proven wrong.
For the full 1950s experience, you also need to reintroduce national service and hanging, but also near full employment, and hundreds of thousands of new local authority homes being built every year.
Given it has been 20 years since the Millennium Dome, perhaps our glorious Prime Minister will take the opportunity to announce a new Festival of Buccaneering Global Britain. Any distraction will do.
Judging by comments here and elsewhere, distribution of produce to supermarkets is patchy. If that persists it could become very divisive. I would expect supermarkets to institute informal rationing long before the Government moves.
Rationing was introduced in WW2 to keep the population healthy enough to support the war effort. The tories have no interest in keeping today’s population healthy. They have already presided over the deaths of some 150,000+ (and still rising) vulnerable and not so vulnerable people in the UK without any apparent qualms. Survival of the fittest and let the poor go to the wall is their modus operandi.
I can’t see rationing being anywhere in their sights. Those of working age will just have to ‘work harder’ (to quote our Revered Leader) to be able to earn enough to afford rising prices of scarce resources.
(I dimly remembered there was some sort of proposed rationing in the early 70s. Aaah, petrol coupons, that was it…)
Here the midlands, I can assure you that we have gaps on shelves for all sorts of commodities – food and non-food.
Fine, but could this government organise it? Can it organise anything? I shudder to think of Serco, Deloitte et al behind the scenes. The obvious minister would be Chris Grayling.
The least comforting words Johnson can say are ‘We’ll sort it out’
[…] By Richard Murphy, a chartered accountant and a political economist. He has been described by the Guardian newspaper as an “anti-poverty campaigner and tax expert”. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK. He is a non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics. He is a member of the Progressive Economy Forum. Originally published at Tax Research UK […]
An interesting read as always. This reminded me of a twitter thread by Robert Saunders that I made a note of a little while back https://wakelet.com/wake/NxXbh4ztrB97LRG2Qt3jt .
He asserts that the UK hasn’t been self-sufficient in food since the 1840s. Of course, no problem when there is an Empire and later a willing, compliant Commonwealth. More of a problem when other countries realise they have choices and can make more money elsewhere.
The twitter thread stepped through the reasons for the food shortages in 1974, the voluntary rationing that took place and the Tory government considering formal rationing. Thatcher even had to open her cupboards to apparently show that she wasn’t hoarding food.
Robert Saunders also showed that good supply security played a key role in the first EU referendum. Not that you would know that from the so-called debate around the Brexit referendum. The common Brexit refrain that there was food before we entered the EU now looks well wide of the mark.
If rationing has to be introduced by the present government you can be sure that it will be done in such a way that somebody makes a vast profit from it. Dido Harding will be in charge. It will be so badly done that people will starve if they can’t pay to get food on the black market. I remember (just!) the post war rationing as I was a pre-school kid going to the shops with my mum. I’m sure there was plenty of corruption and inefficiency, but I have the impression it was run by a government with the wellbeing of the population at heart. We won’t get that again so long as people vote tory.
I fear you may be right
Rationing! In our dystopian society? There would be rioting and looting and no means to control the masses. Such is the modern world we have created, stupid and selfish. (Not all I add, but far too many and increasing)
But how would rationing be enforced? We have (essentially) no single national ID card. My Mum tells me that what we know as the National Insurance number was used during the war as an ID card with a ration book.
Secondly, what will happen to individuals who cannot confirm their identity or do not want to?
Thirdly, is wider society disciplined enough to follow the rules? I personally think not.
I can see rationing as a possibility, but only when the current administration have made ID cards mandatory.
I see all the difficulties
I also sense that we might need to work out how to overcome the problems
Rationing of energy could be introduced by the regulator.
Every household should get a reasonable per capita ration of energy for cooking and heating purposes but consumption above that should be subject to a sliding scale of charges.
Rationing of food should come from levying of VAT on more industrialised food and subsidies to food banks and local small farms and market gardens.
Rationing of housing could come from a new rating system based on m2.
I forsee social troubles/unrest if this is tried. I think we live in very uncertain and worrying times.
If you wanted to go that way, rather than issuing food stamps, etc, you could have a universal basic income plus a per person entitlement to buy a certain amount of basic resources for a fixed price, but it would be up to the individual to decide whether they want to buy those basic resources or something else.
Interesting
presumably those that could afford to would simply move abroad for a few months (assuming thats how long the supply issues lasted) thus helping the situation
its certainly what i intend to do if necessary