As The Independent has reported:
A collapse in British exports to the Irish Republic since Brexit has handed Dublin an extraordinary trade surplus with London, new figures show.
The Irish government says new trading red tape explains a €2 billion plunge in the value of goods sales — 47.6 per cent in the first quarter of this year, compared with the start of 2020.
The data published by the Irish government shows this:
That is a staggering change in fortunes. The collapse of trade direct from the UK is extraordinary.
My attention was drawn to this article by Dr Tim Rideout. I think it worth sharing his comments on it:
UK Office for National Statistics stats don't, I understand, separate out Ireland, so you probably won't see this if you look at our data. Probably the majority of the Ireland to EU transit traffic that used to go via Holyhead and Fishguard is now going direct to France on one of the many multi-times per day services that have been running since January. There is bound, in due course, to be a big impact on Wales — Ireland ferry services and ports in due course as just one of the consequences.
I agree with Tim. The consequences of what is happening are staggering for British business, and those who depend on this trade.
I will ask, yet again, what are the benefits of Brexit supposed to be?
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
“I will ask, yet again, what are the benefits of Brexit supposed to be?”
In terms of the EU:
Helping Ireland
Removing from the EU a trouble making country (UK)
Moving financial services out of London to other EU capitals
Focusing UK gov attention on “who will pick the cabbages and fruit”
Making Uk less competitive vis-a-vis the EU.
In terms of the UK & Brexit main benefit seems to be:
virtual unicorns
The wrenching apart of the supply chains is happening at a speed which surprises even businesses that planned for it. There are lots of impacts on all sorts of British businesses that are not reported. For example 150,000 trucks used the landbridge, with immediate and noticeable effects on Welsh ports. In addition, drivers need food, diesel, and often accommodation, all being impacted. Eire holidaymakers are also avoiding the route, ditto.
Just returned from sailing from Belfast to Swansea. COVID rules meant that (Republic of) Ireland was out of bounds but a few random observations….
Portavogie was absolutely rammed with fishing boats. Yes, I know it’s a major fishing port not a yachting harbour but but even so, I was surprised. Also, (on a sample size of 2) the skippers I spoke to were Scottish. Are UK boats landing their catch in NI for export to the EU??
Holyhead was quiet but never been there before so can’t comment on any change.
Fishguard, and Pembroke Dock were quiet. It is a part of the world I am very familiar with but have not been to for about 5 years and ferry traffic is much diminished already. There are no direct trains to London from either port and just one a day from Fishguard. Reluctant to draw firm conclusions in a time of COVID…. but can’t help feeling that Brexit is the cause.
For what it’s worth (not much) Holyhead is always pretty dead. It suffers from being a transport hub, people pass through but don’t stop on their way to Ireland or London in the other direction. It also suffers from having a shopping estate on its doorstep, with two gigantic supermarkets, petrol stations, fast-food outlets etc so no one need bother with town centre.
There are other trade losses in this area for the UK; licensed bier production, copy bier like Stella, Peroni, Miller MGD etc, these are all now sourced from suppliers in the EU for EU destinations and no longer transported from the UK, I noticed by Feb there was very little UK mass produced bier being sold in CH and DE, the range of craft biers had also reduced. Brexit has caused multinationals to redistribute their production and supply away from the UK. MARS has capacity all over the EU and can easily switch production between EU centres to avoid delay and transportation costs – All multinational companies have expensive Siebel, SAP and Oracle Supply software systems that configure production to match demand and ensure product delivery to the market reducing input, transportation costs an easily calculated parameter. The net effect is that UK Exports and production are reduced, there is a direct net impact of less production and transportation hours required which feeds directly to a reduction in UK employment.
It was entirely predictable that the enormous UK trade surplus with Ireland, relatively speaking size wise (the Republic has just 4.9 million people), would take a hit. What its simply flabbergasting to me is the size and speed of that hit in such a truncated timeframe. I don’t think anyone anticipated the scale and rapidity. The UK enjoyed this trade surplus because it was the English speaking trade hub of Europe and a great many goods that Ireland wanted came via UK warehouses, via UK companies that held the rights to distribution and because the UK offered the necessary “scale” for the English speaking components of the EU.
Now this has all changed. What is very evident is that everyone, companies and customers, value consistency, constancy and predictability in trade. And EU membership via the internal market and the common customs tariff provide just this scenario which is so important and essential in the modern world. The UK has left this behind. There should be some recovery. Some. But Ireland was one of the few EU states with which the UK enjoyed a very large trade surplus. And that trade surplus has taken a permanent hit.
What we are witnessing is the catastrophic outcomes of misjudgement, hubris and deceit. And we are only at the beginning. This should act as a canary in the coal mine. But I strongly suspect that it won’t because denial appears to be in vogue in the UK political class and in many elements of the media.
This is a complete tragedy for the UK and I feel desperately sorry for the ordinary human beings who are going to pay the price. What did the people of the UK doing to deserve such political charlatans?
You are rate – the second differential is staggeringly high
“What did the people of the UK do to deserve such political charlatans?” They voted for them. Well, the people of England mainly…
Ahem…this came out just one day before Lord Frost was interviewed saying, “… nobody is questioning Brexit. It was self-evidently the right thing to do.” Words do indeed fail me.
And me
I am questioning Brexit
Is the EU bad? Yes.
Was it setup to do an endrun around democratically elected governments?
You betcha.
Are the people who paid for the Brexit campaign bad?
Yes.
Possibly worse. Some of them have CVs that would make Idi Amin blush.
Does that mean leaving the EU is bad then?
No.
Why not?
The EU was setup to free Industrial Capitalism from the extremely annoying possibility of being thwarted by pesky elected governments.
And it has worked like a charm.
However, there are some new boys on the block and Industry is not their thing.
Finance Capitalism seeks to indebt labor, industry, real estate and government in order to capture all net discretionary personal income and business profits.
So… not mates with Industrial Capitalists.
What was it Boris said? “**** business”
Finance Capitalism was the ‘invisible hand’ behind Brexit.
God, isn’t that worse then?
Well, sort of.
Yes, its worse in that we’re now run by a bunch of total sociopaths and they have a completely free hand, but we can change that.
We can now vote in who we like & when they get in, their hands won’t be tied by the EU.
It’s a two edged sword.
Once free of the EU you can use your freedom for good or ill.
But at least you can choose.
You entirely miss the point
I’d actually at most of that nonsense
It us about so much more than trade
If you don’t get that it’s no wonder your analysis is wrong
“We can now vote in who we like…” In Scotland we didn’t vote for any of this, neither Brexit nor the sociopaths. At present we can vote in who we like but it makes no difference; in England the tories are popular and continue to be voted into overwhelming power. Leaving the EU seems to have enhanced that tendency.
Once outwith the EU UKgov have ignored or overuled the devolved nations and sought to diminish the powers of Scotland while, through hubris or indifference, they have destroyed the fragile balance that existed in Northern Ireland.
The people of Northern Ireland didn’t vote for Brexit either and whilst they largely vote in elections on sectarian grounds and are fairly evenly split, Sinn Féin MPs do not take their seats, so the DUP had most influence at Westminster. However, once Johnson’s government was established with a huge majority, these former allies were discarded and the lies about the existence/non existence of a sea border soon became evident. The DUP is now in meltdown. Whilst the RoI government is not keen on reunification and NI remains split, the question has been revived by Johnson and Frost’s cavalier negotiating tactics and is gaining popular support in both the North and the South.
That sea border also disadvantages Scotland, of course, who were not allowed any input whatsoever in the negotiations either on Brexit or the NI Protocol.
“Freedom” from the EU will not result in any changes for the good so long as the United Kingdom continues with its present constitutional and electoral systems intact. The destabilisation caused by Brexit will likely result in reuinification of Ireland (the North thus rejoining the EU) and the independence of Scotland (who may well then also rejoin) leaving England and Wales “free”. Non of this will benefit trade between England and Ireland, though trade between Scotland and Ireland would hopefully improve.