The world has, at last, noticed that not all is well in Northern Ireland. Loyalist rioting has gone on for six nights now. There is no sign, as yet, of it ending.
I will never condone violence. But when a community tolerates it - and it must be since it seems that several hundred people are engaged in this activity - then there is an indication of real political concern within it, and that requires attention.
Various justifications for this violence have been promoted. I am not able to determine whether they are reliable or not, and so will not comment. What I do know is that Boris Johnson wilfully changed the status of Northern Ireland and then wilfully lied about doing so when undertaking Brexit.
As years have passed it has become increasingly obvious how skilful the Good Friday Agreement on Northern Ireland was. By letting both communities feel that they secured the identity that they wished for the Agreement delivered an unexpected peace.
Unionists felt a part of the UK. Nationalists saw the border with Ireland disappear. The result was a compromise within the EU that proved to be remarkably durable.
Brexit took that away. The EU departed the scene. A border had to be created. It is in the Irish Sea, and not within Ireland. The result is Unionist anger. That was always predictable.
That Johnson lied about, and the DUP supported his plans for far too long made things worse. Being betrayed by those you think should be your own side is never a good feeling.
And betrayal is an appropriate word here. That is what Johnson did. He actually betrayed all in Northern Ireland by lying about what was being done. It's just some feel it more intensely.
What can be done? Honesty would help. But honesty about a deal that does, and even has to by its very nature, fail Northern Ireland can only go so far. The brutal reality is that the basis for the peace has been fractured.
I have no obvious solution to offer. There is none available. That's because Johnson did not care. Nor did the rest of the UK care. Northern Ireland was simply not an issue for them. Only a tiny proportion from Great Britain has ever been there. The rest think it another country. And the Unionists don't want to accept that. They wish to be a part of a country that is now very obviously indifferent to them.
Do I care about this? Yes, of course I do. I am aware that the same issue exists in Wales and Scotland. I am also aware that the sense of betrayal by what is, in effect, England, will also be found amongst some there. So of course I am aware of this issue and care about it. Passions run high in such situations. Outcomes are unpredictable. I definitely care about that.
But what I also know is that none of this can be managed without skilful diplomatic input from London. And that is a lot, and maybe too much, to expect.
Brexit was the creation of those now in power in London. They advanced it for their own cynical gain. Their transformation of the Conservative Party into an English nationalist party was not by chance. The consequences have and will flow from that.
Have they the ability to both simultaneously promote the nationalist, micro-imperialist cause that they promote and deal with tensions that arise from it, so far only really apparent in Northern Ireland? I doubt it.
The reason is obvious, it comes from the paradox that their nationalism is simultaneously imperialist. English nationalism's identity requires that it has the right to rule others, even if only now in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. So they cannot even be honest enough to say to the loyalists in Northern Ireland that the country of which they wish to be a part no longer wants them, even if the vast majority in that country probably think that. As a result Johnson fuels the hope of those rioting, whilst ensuring that in reality there is none, as evidenced by his actions on Brexit.
I did not expect this to happen so quickly. I thought there would be a longer period of grace on this issue. It appears not. Johnson lit the blue touch paper. He has no fire extinguisher. He does not have the skills to diffuse what he so deliberately created. He may not even have the desire.
The best we can hope for is that the troubles might be contained. But what I am quite sure about is that the stresses will not be contained. The route on which English nationalism set us is a stressful one, for the UK and the nations that will now seemingly inevitably emerge from it. Anyone interested in the route to constitutional change has to recognise that, and be honest about it. Johnson proves the risk of dishonesty. It is very high, and we might all suffer as a result of it.
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Loyalist Paramilitaries wrote to Boris Johnson and Micheal Martin recently to say that they no longer recognised the good friday agreement following brexit.
There is a Podcast available that was recorded a few weeks ago explaining what was happening then and the current subsequent events. It is worth a listen because it explains who the different parties are and what their motivations might be. Podcast is completely independent and non political hosted by independent war reporter Jake Hanrahan – https://open.spotify.com/episode/0tHp1bZE1wrbRmZOiFylQY
I can remember when in Customs in the 1970’s reading in our staff newsletter about British Customs officers being killed in N Ireland : Johnson is, unlike Major and Blair obviously ignorant of the history of N Ireland and the dangers his Brexit shambles has set in train
I wrote to our local MP after the Brexit vote, highlighting that the people of N Ireland would be the ones that suffer the most. Being in the EU did, as you point out, maintain a workable and liveable compromise that most could accept. Brexit has put peace in N Ireland back at least 20 years, in my view.
Of all the tragedies of Brexit – this seems to be the worst.
I have to say I agree with your blog – NI has been in the back of mind.
The thing is what will the American reaction be?
I don’t normally like to see the U.S. interfere in British governance but I relish what might happen over this. I hope that Boris and the ERG get a really big spanking over this, I really do. And as much egg on their faces that they cannot eat.
Our Government is basically out of control, ERG members are essentially trying to run the Covid response too. We need as much help as possible.
It’s ironic to think that it was being suggested in some quarters before the election that if Corbyn got in the Americans would be over here clandestinely trying to effect regime change. Now we may well discover them doing just that but to remove the Tories. Who knew?
If only Bill, if only. Anything that rids us of the appalling Johnson regime is to be welcomed.
“a few thousand unwashed Unionists and Nationalists murdering each other” – that is one of the most callous comments I’ve ever read on here. You may be parodying UK gov thought on this, but it’s unacceptable.
Agreed
That was a moderation error
Sincere apologies
I should always read right to the bottom line
An extremely callous comment but I am not sure you were right to moderate it. Unless that attitude belongs to an extremely small percentage of people (which I hope it is) it’s better out in open as it will be a determinant in any solution to this crisis.
If the Johnson administration has lit the blue touch paper on English nationalism then it would be important to realise that this is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
As an Irish citizen (Eire that is) I have always found the attitude towards NI entirely consistent with UK historical colonial rule. The current Secretary of State is the MP for Great Yarmouth. This is identical to appointing a British aristocrat to be Viceroy of India (though at least he had the decency to live there).
For those that visit Belfast, the scale of deprivation is all too clear. Poor housing, poor health, poor education, poor jobs, and the view that the hated Papists are winning creates a vicious atmosphere.
Never mind Johnson’s and the UK governments stupid Brexit negotiations, the Irish border problem was always going to be intractable. But why isn’t the same problem being mentioned when discussing Scottish Independence? When they join the EU, there will be the same impossibility.
What would a new referendum offer? Black and white in/out or a proper feasibility study – such as UK should have done, followed by an acceptance/rejection vote?
The Scottish border is clear, historic and real
There are also remarkably few crossing points
None of this compares with NI, where the border is wholly artificial
And if you have not noticed, Europe is full of borders
The problem is England wanted to make them hard borders
That is not Scotland’s problem
“There are also remarkably few crossing points” – here is a blog post that lists just 25 public roads crossing the 96 mile border between England and Scotland. https://mercinon.wordpress.com/2020/01/16/what-might-a-land-border-between-the-united-kingdom-and-a-separate-scotland-look-like/
I had no idea it was so few compared to the 200 to 300 road crossings on the 310 mile border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland (ROI). A boundary commission was meant to rationalise the wiggliest bits in the 1920s but its report was never implemented.
England-Scotland is a relatively straight boundary between nations that was determined over centuries of conflict. Much of the land is rather marginal, with the only significant settlements at either end. Whereas Northern Ireland is just a bunch of counties, with several towns close to each side of the border. Some roads cross the border several times within a few miles. Imagine how interlinked the six counties of the East of England (Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk) are with their neighbours, and what it might be like if they were to become a separate country.
Agreed
I am amazed there are 25 crossings, having explored much of that border in my time
Richard,
I remember seeing a TV programme – 2019, I think, and probably BBC – in which a Catholic from Northern Ireland, whose name I forget, but whose father had been murdered by Loyalist paramilitaries, meditated through speech and image on that whole tragedy in his life, as a microcosm of a macrocosm.
One of the most telling of those images was of him driving along a road in Ireland – deliberately unspecified, as it threaded its way in and out of the “border”.
“Now we’re in the Republic”, he’d say, and a couple of hundred yards later, “and now we’re in Northern Ireland”.
This didn’t just happen once, but repeatedly. Frankly, policing just that part of the border would have required a solution analogous to that adopted by the Romans to deal with the Spartacus slave rebellion, when crucified slaves were placed all the way along the Via Appia from Campania to Rome – 6,000 of them!!
So one every 100 yards would have stretched 340 miles! But instead of crosses, you’d need the same number of watchtowers, and a Berlin Wall type fence to guard that border.
How different from Scotland, as you say:
“The Scottish border is clear, historic and real
There are also remarkably few crossing points.”
There is also, as you say, no recent history in Scotland of the intercommunal tensions that form such a tragic part of Northern Ireland’s history.
On which, a last point: all talk of the Troubles tends to focus on the IRA and its murderous activities, so that people are surprised to find that the split between Loyalist and Nationalist victims (and hence between perpetrators) is very roughly 50/50.
For, note, the father of the maker of the programme I’m citing was a Catholic killed by Loyalist paramilitaries. Both sides had their men of violence, and both sides had their innocent victims.
I can recommend you read Anna Burns’s “No Bones” for a brilliant insight into what life was like in the Troubles.
See: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/748235.No_Bones
“But why isn’t the same problem being mentioned when discussing Scottish Independence?”
Because it is not analogous with NI. There is not a deeply sectarian division between communities. And there is not the recent history of violence and the literal targeting of border posts.
There is no reason to believe Scotland and England could not have a border like Switzerland does with numerous nations.
@ Steve,
“There is not (in Scotland) a deeply sectarian division between communities.”
I wouldn’t be too sure about that! When the rules allow you might want to visit Glasgow for a Rangers v Celtic game, or when there is an Orange march in the city.
I do have family ties to both Northern Ireland and Scotland. The religious sectarianism in both is hard to understand from an English perspective. This is because religion largely isn’t tied in with a sense of National identity in the same way as in both these countries.
I agree the situation is not only much more serious in NI than is generally appreciated in England, it is the same in Scotland too. No-one who is pushing for Scottish independence should think the issue will be settled peacefully by a 50% +1 vote in a referendum. It could be like Ireland, 100 years ago, all over again.
I agree that Scotland is much more divided than most people realise – and that there is a deeply oppressed Cathic community in parts of the country and most especially but not only Glasgow
@ Tom Edmunds
As Dara Ó Briain once joked when he greeted his Glaswegian audience: “It’s great to be back in Glasgow, or as I like to call it: ‘Belfast Light'”
I am not dismissing genuine concerns and divisions patently present in Scotland today.
What I was pointing out to Norman Willcox in his comment as he suggested “[w]hen [Scotland] join[s] the EU, there will be the same impossibility”, was that comparing the two borders is nonsensical and ignores the unique circumstances of NI’s history.
A Scottish/English border would be rather straight-forward compared to the current tense stand off in NI.
I agree with your conclusion
In Michael Gove’s notorious paper published by the Centre for Policy Studies in 2000 – http://www.finfacts.ie/MichaelGove.pdf – in which he likened the Good Friday Agreement to appeasement of the Nazis in the 1930s (seriously) – his proposal for Northern Ireland was “resolute security action”. Because, you know, that worked out so well in the 1970s and 1980s. Given defence cuts in recent years, I’m not sure the UK has the manpower for the sort of thing he had in mind, even if we wanted to military checkpoints and soldiers patrolling on the streets again.
Reunification would require border polls in favour in both the north and the south. Do people in the south really want to take this on?
You hint at the nightmare of this
Not quite true; Johnson does have a fire extinguisher for NI – by rejoining the single market and customs union. Even by “stealth” – just doing it and blatantly lying that it hasn’t happened. He could even get away with it if there’s an obvious and immediate economic recovery – which he would shamelessly claim is the promised “Brexit dividend”.
Unfortunately, this merely shifts the burden of being betrayed to Leave voters, the vast majority of which resides in England. It also obliterates the core of their plans against Scottish independence. I agree with your reply to another comment that it’s not really Scotland’s problem, but they haven’t got much else and it seems like they are going to rely on the “UK internal market” as an anti-independence device – which requires that GB stays out of the SM/CU.
I am not quite sure that only one fire extinguisher is needed. It is certainly true that the political choices of May and Johnson made a hard border inevitable. A lack of political leadership, the lateness of the final deal and a propensity for dishonesty within the UK government and the DUP meant that the effects of the protocol were belatedly recognised in NI. When the problems were seen, instead of accepting responsibility, the UK government blamed the EU and failed to honour its commitment to the protocol. There is a mechanism for trying to resolve problems in implementation of the protocol and that is, I think, being followed.
This is a piece attempting to explore the psychology of Loyalism. Here is a link and extract.
https://thepsychologist.bps.org.uk/volume-29/february/researching-loyalist-communities
“Within ‘hard to reach’ groups, a victim mentality often exists. This mentality is particularly prevalent within the loyalist community in Northern Ireland, whereby they often feel as though they have lost out in the peace process. This loss is perceived as zero-sum — with every loyalist loss being associated with republican gain.”
Underlying the violence is the existence over 45 years of Loyalist paramilitaries in some areas of NI.There has been little or no attempt on the part of the British (or Irish) governments to deal with this situation. Violence has served to segregate further the people in NI. As a consequence there is segregated housing and education which can lead to deeply divided cultures.
Poverty and deprivation plays its part. Adverse childhood experiences, often as a result of poverty, can lead to a child hailing to reach his/her potential. They can bring poor health in later life, early deaths, low educational achievement and poor jobs. In adulthood, affected young men are more likely to carry weapons and develop drug problems; young women will be more likely to have early pregnancy.
None of the devolved governments has enough powers to deal effectively with the fundamental causes of inequalities in society. UK government policies will continue to throw more people into the water upstream whatever limited steps any devolved government tries to take to mitigate poverty.
Heading off pan-European conflict was, as I understand it, one of the prime motives behind creating the EU after the hard lessons of WW1 and WW2. The GFA is a modest-scale but extraordinarily successful demonstration of its value. Brexit deliberately unlearned those lessons. And, inevitably, here we are.
Indeed
You couldnt make it up – Sinn Fein leader in Stormort calling for support for the police!
Hopefully, if Loyalist gangs dont manage to provoke republican street violence, their own street riots – wrecking their own communities – might peter out.
As Alan D says – wouldnt be beyond govt to rejoin sm/cu by stealth, while pretending not.
What a mess.
What is surprising about Sin Fein – a significant political party throughout Ireland and in government in the North for decades now – calling for support for the police?
I just meant in the sense that – who would have imagined it thirty/forty years ago, when Sin Fein werent even allowed to speak on the broadcast media, and the ‘armed struggle’ was everything. (Obviously too old.)
I remember that well
But I was making the point that things have changed and we need to recognise that
There’s nothing surprising, if you understand what’s been happening in NI in the last 100 years or so; but, it is rare to find anyone in England who does! I’d say that includes Boris Johnson, otherwise he wouldn’t have done what he has!
The English mentality used to be, and to some extent still is, hence Andrew’s surprise, that the IRA/Sinn Fein is/was an extremist group which is/was only supported by a tiny minority of of the population.
This is not at all true. Political concepts of Left, Centre and Right don’t apply so much in Northern Ireland. If you’re a Unionist you’ll vote one way and if you’re an Irish Nationalist you’ll vote the other.
What was news to a recent Northern Ireland Secretary
If Scottish independence occurs there will be a sectorial divide; just like in England – leave and remain, probably not too far from even. But quite possibly not quite so strident? I wonder why English remainers seem so relaxed about Scottish leavers. It seems against common sense to break up into smaller and smaller units, given climate change and pandemics, doesn’t it?
I note no comment about the mechanics of a referendum to leave UK – can they learn from UK’s disaster?
Scotland has always been a unit
I wonder, have you ever been there?
Yes, Richard, I have been there, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Rosyth, Dundee many times on business, Dunoon with my reprobate mate Roddy McInnes to visit his mother, and a fortnight’s camping trip with a girlfriend. Didn’t get to John O’ Groats though, or the islands.
So I don’t understand the point you are making then…
One of the points is that Brexit has caused so many unexpected consequences. Scottish independence will too, though perhaps less so. But the example is there from which to learn lessons.
I think that if the First Minister gets her mandate, she should offer a two stage referendum, firstly to get approval to make a staged feasibility plan, identifying the problems to be solved, including a detailed transfer to a sovereign currency, in order to obtain the electorate’s permission in the 2nd part to action the plan. That way the electorate can be shown the benefits and down-sides, before committing to independence. And the First Minister herself will have discovered some aspects which she probably does not yet recognise, plus & minus. (Is she not bent on keeping Stirling?)
@ Richard,
I’d say Norman is making the same point as I’ve made in recent comments. You say “Scotland has always been a unit”. Sure, but it doesn’t mean they’ve always been united. There are still those who think Bonnie Prince Charlie should have been king and the present lot are a bunch of German/Dutch usurpers! History matters in Scotland and Ireland in a way that English people tend to find difficult to understand.
As a Yorkshireman married to scot living in the Central belt I can both agree and disAgree. Yes here by the M8 corridor across to Ayr there is a historic sectarian and vocal minority. However, several big differences with NI.
1. Vast majority of Scots regard these people as ‘barmpots’ taking it too far.
2. We are Not plagued by paramilitaries
I voted No in Referendum because of promise ‘ best way to keep Scotland in EU’ – Not so as it turned out.
So I have a lot a sympathy for unionists in Ireland who like me gullibly believed the Govt assurances.
So yes I will be voting SNP and yes I will vote for Independence.
If There is going to be economic pain- better Scotland decide rather than London. At least if people dont like it they can vote them out. Never be the case staying inside the union.
I wouldn’t be surprised at the First Minister wanting to keep Stirling. It’s a town right in the middle of the Central Belt. If you mean Sterling, then it’s SNP policy to set up a Scottish currency as soon as practicable after a vote for Independence, which, for many of us, means straight away.
As a bit of light relief one of my old Customs colleagues told of when he worked on the Irish land border of a man whose shop was half in the North and half in the Republic – so if you were from the North and wanted cheaper duty free goods you went into the back half of the shop !
🙂
I had an interesting discussion with a Physiatrist about the nature of Northern Ireland which I feel often has the glamour and excitement of the sort of neighbour disputes my colleagues had to deal with when I worked in a Housing Office.
His comment was that the nature of Northern Irish politics was such that anybody with any kind of intelligence would not go anywhere near it and often emigrated.
I would be interested in your opinion of the parties involved
The irony of the situation:
There are those who want to be part of a United Ireland and nothing wrong with that. But do they know about Ireland being top of European League tables for economic freedom, low government spending as a % of GDP, has no NHS system, and dishes out significant subsidies to greyhound racing, horse racing and to farmland owners. If you had to represent neo-liberal by choosing one country only, Ireland would be a clear contender.
The people who want a United Ireland are not rioting. At least at the moment.
Young scallies who want the 6 counties to remain in the UK are having a blast, and burning stuff. But are any of the supposedly good thinking people blaming the parents or the sectarian education system funded by government for their behaviours?
Not that I’ve read.
As an aside, here are some of the most wonderful words ever crafted in the English language
“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion”
Good point about the NHS, clearly if there is to be a United Ireland, either The North loses free health care or the RoI has to extend it to everyone.
Interesting
The Republic of Ireland does have a public health service but is severely under funded due to cutting capacity.
I agree regarding Boris’ dishonesty, but it is also fair to point out that the initial fault was Theresa May’s . She caste the dye by refusing to stay in the Single Market, having ruled that option out there was only ever one outcome, a hard border. Boris removed her and faield to spot the error, but thought he’d have a go at defusing the backstop problem of a land border,to a front stop by moving it into the sea.
Along with his usual waffle, bluster and belittling of the issues, as is his wont.
The sound of chicken coming home to roost now can be heard as the Loyalist now see when the mist has cleared that they have been economically cut off from the mainland.
Had Theresa May taken better advice from a wider source of advisors this could have been avoided. We could have stayed in the Single Market until we negotiated a FTA. But she critically ruled it out as an option in her Lancaster House speech (Jan 2017) refusing to use the EEA route allowing us to remain in the SM. That of course would have left us in the SM for many more years and was deemed unacceptable to the far right fringe of her party. This has meant that we now have a terrible Brexit deal on Northern Ireland and for other UK small exporters to the EU who are finding trade has become nigh on impossible.
Anyone looking for education/information on the multi-faceted complexities of the situation both in Northern Ireland and the Republic will benefit from the 4 Alex Salmond Show episodes linked below.
As Richard has alluded to before, Alex (despite being a bit of a ‘ham’ as is his want) does his allow his guests the luxury in fully expressing themselves freely unlike the combative style of the narcissistic presenters of UK mainstream media, allowing an adult and friendly discussion.
Warning each episode lasts for 30 mins but will be well worth it.
https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/483428-northern-ireland-post-brexit-impact/
https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/484718-northern-ireland-post-brexit/
https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/484126-northern-irish-unionism-alex-salmond/
https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/495498-ireland-coalition-electorial-rise/
One thing that hit home to me, as will become clear if you watch the shows was the somewhat disturbing similarity between the politics of the ROI government up until recently and the politics of Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP administration was/is the concentration on the young to middle age professionals to the detriment of other groups especially the retired and working class and led to the spectacular gains made by Sinn Fein
Of course all this has absolutely nothing to do with the decision by the SNP to delay the Scottish Census by a year conveniently until after the upcoming election
When the Johnson government saw that the people gave them one of the greatest majority they became arrogant and now feel they can do what the hell they want, break international laws, damage the economy, destroy businesses, lie in parliament all the time which has now become normal, accepted and no longer a sin even by the house speaker. Now NI violence which was expected by the creation of a the border, thanks to Brexit.
The UK is going through moral, economic, social and political decline created by the Brexit fascist government and media and nobody seems to notice or care. They have not learnt from history unfortunately
This article in the Irish Times shows that there are indeed other issues going on in N Ireland, old political scores still linger and the PSNI have become a target for over their perceived inaction against Sinn Fein breaking covid restrictions on a recent funeral of one of their own, as well as resentment at the successful closing down some loyalist drug running criminal activities.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ni-assembly-set-to-be-recalled-for-debate-on-loyalist-violence-1.4529970