I was talking to a group of activists in Scotland last week and was asked this question. My answer was an unambiguous 'yes'. In this video I explain why.
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Aye – a short concise and bang on the nail video Richard.
You are absolutely right to emphasise that this is a question of LEADERSHIP – about making the right decisions and making the minimum number of mistakes. Whatever the economic numbers may look like now we can make choices which reset the dials…..reading the runes on the dials as they are now does not foretell our future – we can choose the course we want to take for ourselves.
Well said – and what needs to be said fits neatly into a short message – not page and pages of quantitative data and analysis to be fought over in a macho intellectual (or is it?) tug of war.
I enjoy your articles very much Richard, very informative and educational.
Whilst your comparisons with other small countries is perhaps a reasonable starting point, may I say its not quite as straightforward as comparing us to other small countries?
As a proud Scot who is also proud to be part of the UK (and Europe!) I think there are several other issues to consider? Of those countries you mention, how did they handle the “divorce” from the “parent country” if they had one? I wonder what Scotland’s share of the UK National Debt is and how we would repay it? (ignoring CV19 costs which I understand UK has funded through our own National Bank). I wonder how it would fund the future public sector pension obligations it has (given we have a very high percentage of population employed in the public sector). In a strategically important position on the edge of the North Atlantic, and given the SNP rejection of Nuclear weapons, how would it defend itself? Just a few questions which don’t seem to get much “airtime” in the media…
Whilst Westminster is not covering itself in glory (Scotland looks at some of the Westminster Government almost like part of the cast of Monty Python’s Upper Class Twits of the Year) Holyrood is not overall not out-performing Westminster in terms of making the country better. Too much time and effort is going into the divisive planning for another referendum. Scotland’s education system has tumbled down the rankings, the health service is not in great shape… drug deaths have tripled in recent years.. I could go on, and no doubt Nationalists could cite success stories too; there will be some. But it is not way “better” than it was…
Yes, we are annoyed at being pulled out of Europe – that is having a big effect on feelings here – However, I am not sure independence will mean we get right back into Europe.. a long road ahead for that…
Living in Scotland as part of the UK has always been great; we can be a wee bit “different”, have our own customs and ways, devolved powers, as can Wales and NI, and yet be part of the same country as our friends in England. Because we are pretty much just the same as you.
It is not in any way obviously better under the SNP, with a lot of devolved power at their disposal; to me the question goes way deeper than “could Scotland afford it”…
When Holyrood actually ahs remarkably littler control do you really exp[etc something radically different?
That it has managed something different – and clearly popular – is itself a massive achievement when dwarfed by Westminster
The rest are issues I have answered. For example, there is no national debt to pay, and cannot be
I am not an economist. Nor am I well versed in the mechanics of the “inter-country” finances of the UK (like most of the people who may have to vote in the next indyref). I simply asked some questions, and you have clarified that rUK controlling sterling “post independence” rules out any obligation that Scotland might have for a “divorce” settlement re the UK National Debt.
I am not sure, Richard, where your answers re the other issues can be found (eg Scotland not being able to be part of NATO post independence, funding of future Scots public sector pensions) but I would be interested in seeing them; not to argue, but to try to understand better the implications for Scotland.
I live here. I have all my life. I don’t know where any of you live but I can tell you that the primary and secondary education system is NOT what it once was. (To be fair, thankfully, Uni Tuition fees are still met by Government). Our Health Service is NOT streets ahead of the rest of the UK (we have managed to spend something like £160m on a hospital that is not fit for purpose and is still not open; there are 400 Consultant vacancies in NHS Scotland..). Nicola is a superb orator; the person in the street relates to her, and Nationalism has grown on the back of the events of the last 12 months (COVID & BREXIT) with her daily TV broadcasts. But it is true to say that there are many, many proud Scots who are also proud to be British, to whom the Union flag means something, alongside the Saltire.
The SNP has created a real divide in Scotland, a divide which has an undercurrent of ugliness, with both sides vitriolic in their condemnation of the other. Perhaps that’s just politics. I fear that many are on the indyref bandwagon because they happen to “like” Nicola, feel they hate the English, but don’t try to out find out a bit more about what independence will actually mean.
Is a “halfway house remotely achievable? More devolved power to the 4 countries, but some sort of “Council of Nations” to deal with some of the common big ticket stuff (eg defence, social services). Or is that a complete non-starter?
I respect your opinions
But some claims are not mine. I did not mention NATO
And I make no claims for the SNP of which I am often critical, but equally I think you are ignoring the constraints it has to work within
Is there a compromise? I read not. Why? Because that’s been tried too many times and failed.
Scotland us not too wee, stupid or poor to run itself.
Mr Bargh,
You may have missed this (candidly, you seem to have missed quite a lot), but rUK made very clear in 2014 that it was going to take full responsibility for sterling, with no consultation, no discussion and no debate. The principle is established and set in stone, and although the SNP (ill-advised) proposed to share the currency, in the event it accepted the rUK argument as the only realistic outcome.
rUK could only do this (taking Scotland’s currency) by making clear it was taking full responsibility; that includes full responsibility for all the debt. It is the only way they can keep full control over the currency on a non-negotiable basis; so Scotland has no obligation for the UK debt, over which it will have no say or control over whatsoever. You are simply misinformed, or the wish was father of the thought. The rUK proposal is just an undeniable fact. Scotland will either have to use Sterling (but without any control, which is simply not practical without unacceptable risk); or develop its own currency, which is both practical and viable.
Spot on
Let’s not forget also that the financial crash was caused by rich greedy bankers in rich countries and that crash destroyed everybody’s economy in the western world so it’s only right that they pick up the tab of bailing the poorer countries out.
Actually Iceland itself is a great example of an ability of a small nation state to survive. It was absolutely wrecked by the banking sector collapse in 2008. Yet they have managed to shrug that off and prevail. Granted they had many years of capital controls and some economic pain as they could not move money out of the country. But its GDP is now above what is was in 2008 before the crash.
Scotland would be not starting from anywhere near such a handicap.
Agreed, entirely
[…] same group of activists who recently asked me if Scotland could afford to be independent also asked me whether Scotland would be better or worse off than the rest of the UK after […]
If Scotland becomes independent but they retain the English trident nuclear submarine base they will be a target in any conflict England might get involved in. A country like Denmark is far more secure as it poses no threat to other countries. If there’s a land invasion of Scotland I’m sure the BlackWatch and other regiments will see them off no bother.
Targeted? Ha ha ha.
By whom? And for what?
Whisky? Haggis? Kilts?
It is clear that you can’t physically move a missile silo or a shipyard or a nuclear submarine base!
NIMBY would be a problem for the rump state.
Though there are many a dumping grounds to put them on where the voices of the local populace are easily ignored.
The bases/weapons of mass destruction in Scotland should remain Scottish – no Guantanamo Bay type leases.
The independent Scottish Government with its New Constitution and elected Head of State – No Royals, No oaths to the King/Queen, these who insist on retaining their subservience to that Crown can physically take themselves to ‘their’ land. Scotland should take full control over all such ‘assets’ – then UNILATERALLY DISARM these useless and rotting systems, for a safer saner world. Is there any mad leader anywhere who thinks the RoW would take it kindly upon them, their progeny, or their peoples for destroying life and environment for thousands of years by use of such weapons? Do you still think it is an option ? Does anybody??? If so they literally need to be taken out of any position of decision making and put in a mental health facility for their own safety for their remaining days.
The skilled and experienced workforce should be turned into high tech high engineered resource making stuff that will be needed and valued by humanity – for profit of course, not for pointless deadly weapons systems.
Denmark! Bloody hell they are responsible for any amount of biological diseases with their industrial pig farming and also have plenty of nefarious activities.
Why not compare to ‘Taiwan’ ? You know that tiny ‘independent’ state that is at the top of the list of the neocon/libs current support for ‘Independence’ , because you know, they really care about Peoples independence , like the Catalans or Chagosians.
All true and independent minded Scots should not be distracted by the ‘if’ of Indy, they should be rushing to the ‘what’ that should be and rushing cross the t’s and dot the i’s of the Constitution that will make it the first modern advanced State of the C21st with the BEST such constitution.
Questions of allegiances, treaties etc should be addressed within that.
The only way to achieve the independence to believe that you have it and are only delayed until that Constitution is ready.
Stephen, I think you would find the wee book “Scotland the brief” very interesting which you can get via the Believe in Scotland website. It will give you answers to all of your questions. I note that you don’t rate the SNP government’s record on health and education (even though it seems to be a lot better than England’s on many measures). But if Scotland were to become an independent country you can vote for whichever party you like and we might not have an SNP government. The difference is that it will be up to Scotland to decide – not dictated by whoever happens to be in power in England. Glad to see you asking questions and doing research. Then you can make your own informed decision.
Linda