There have been many reports, unsurprisingly mostly in Scotland, about the sacking of Joanna Cherry MP as SNP Home Affairs spokesperson in Westminster yesterday.
I am aware that Joanna Cherry is a controversial person in the SNP, most especially on the subject of trans rights that have dominated much of the internal politics of the SNP and even the Greens in Scotland of late. I am not entering that debate, but I note the contribution Cherry has to make to it as a lesbian woman.
What I do instead note are four things.
The first is that Cherry is by a long way the most able potential successor to Nicola Sturgeon.
The second is that her popularity was more than confirmed by SNP internal elections last year, where she easily topped the poll.
Third, the SNP leadership have done their utmost to keep Joanna Cherry out of Holyrood by denying her the chance to run for a seat there whilst holding one in Westminster.
And fourth, it is very likely that the SNP is going to need a new leader by the end of March as the storm of the Salmond enquiry most likely engulfs Nicola Sturgeon, with the likelihood that she will be voted out as First Minister by the Scottish Parliament now looking to be very high according to all the sources I speak to.
In that case Sturgeon might have just made a massive political error. It is quite likely she will want her successor to look favourably on her, and be her heir. By pushing Cherry out Sturgeon has made her claim to leadership much stronger. And she is, I acknowledge, no friend of Sturgeon.
There is an old maxim in politics that you should keep your enemies close. Sturgeon forgot that in the case of Alex Salmond. Now she has done it again. If there was evidence that her grip on power might be fading, rapidly, this is it.
If she was wise Sturgeon's own, gracious, announcement of retirement after a gruelling period in office would be appropriate now. I don't see that happening though.
Scottish politics may not be as foregone as many think.
Alternatively, they might get much more radical as yet.
This is to be watched over the next couple of months.
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Thank you Richard. I think you have summed things up very well.
I think their may be increasing panic developing within the British State. It will be interesting to
see how all this plays out. The thought of an independent Scottish State with its own currency
must be very worrying to the British establishment.
While I agree with you that Joanna Cherry is a very able politician, the rest of your article is merely parroting the much-wished unionist line that want Nicola Sturgeon gone. Don’t have to wonder why, as the woman is the greatest danger to Westminster’s desire to hold onto it’s greatest asset, Scotland. Not only it’s abundant natural resources, but its people, especially if they are needed to fight, and die, in one of their illegal wars.
As for your assertion that Joanna is the natural successor to Nicola, you, as is common amongst English-based commentators, don’t seem to realise the abundant talent we have amongst our S.N.P M.S.Ps in our parliament. While I want Nicola to stay, the greatest mistake you, and many other ill-informed bloggers make, is that the Yes movement is the S.N.P. Not so, and, if it happens ,while Nicola’s departure would be a loss, the movement, comprising people from all political parties, and none, will continue, and we will have our referendum later this year, despite the increasingly shrill attempts at brainwashing by a corrupt, your words, Westminster Government, aided and willingly abetted, by almost all media outlets.
With respect, I make none of those mistakes
I am not in the SNP
I am very well aware that the independence movement is much bigger than the SNP, and work with it, mainly outside the SNP.
I also know quite a moot of SNP MPs and MSPs.
I am not a Unionist
I do work with, and seem to be liked by The National.
Yoru claims reveal your prejudices, and not mine.
And as a political economist I think the chance Sturgeon will survive the next couple of months are very low. I have done my soundings to check on that with those who might know.
I offered well-informed comment.
Preducies. Sure, ever since 1951 when I asked my parents why they were signing a particular document. Turned out that is was a Scottish Covenant asking for Home Rule for Scotland. Over two million people signed. What happened? Consigned to the No. 10 dustbin.
Sure I’m biased. We have been treated with contempt by whatever political party happens to be power at Westminster.
Claims, sure I have. The firm belief that a fully independent Scotland could do a much better job of running its own affairs than an administration based in another country, who, only pay lip service when it suits then.
It seems despite being an S.N.P member for many years, I don’t know many M.Ps/M.S.Ps as you seem to know. Probably quite correct. Apart from my local politicians, I don’t know any, at least on a personal basis.
What I do know are the feelings of our branch membership, and the opinions of the local electorate, and they, same as me, have what could be described as tunnel vision. Independence first, and sort out the minutiae later. So the replacing of Joanna as a front-bench spokesperson at Westminster is just that, a replacing of one M.P with another.
Despite the undoubted attempts by the media, and others, to big up the story, it will end up as tomorrows chip paper.
I believe, and hope, you are wrong about our First Minister, but if not, I will be one of the first to congratulate you on your vision, because while we may disagree on this subject, I follow your blog with interest every day.
Let me be clear, in many ways I hope I am wrong
You are not wrong Richard. The rot is deep seated within the SNP. It has been compromised by hostile forces masquerading as special interest groups and affiliates. There is no transparency and little or no democracy within the SNP’s political and administrative structures. With the enthusiastic assistance of the leadership the situation has deteriorated since 2016. The SNP has become the worst of what the Labour party in Scotland was until it’s death in 2015 and 2016.
It is heart breaking to see my hopes and dreams of Scottish Independence highjacked by quislings, careerists and special interest groups with no real desire for independence. Corruption the Tories would be proud of, they must be laughing their asses off.
The SNP will not achieve a majority in May. The MSM are priming their fuses waiting to explode their propaganda bombs at the most opportune moment to cause maximum damage. Tentatively it has already started. Hollyroods powers will be restricted to a point where they will be little more than a talking shop. Assuming it isn’t legislated out of existence by WM. If this happens independence will be dead in the water.
Like you, I hope I’m wrong but I’m not. Almost everything I feared would happen has happened.
Nicola is extremely popular with a huge following. If she resigns then that’ll be much easier for people to accept. If she’s pushed then i’m afraid the Tories will be laughing their empty heads off because independence will be lost.
Is your source very reliable?
Yes, very reliable, but strange twists can still happen.
Most expect this outcome now though.
She may be popular but when people were asked in a poll recently if she should resign if it is found that she broke the broke the ministerial code around 65% of people said she should.
This idea that her popularity will protect her is not borne out by this. People also value probity in public office. Remember also that politicians do not rate highly in terms of public trust. So the public half expect politicians to misbehave at some point and have to go. It’s part of political life.
“Acceptance of that maxim is apparently party political, which is a little surprising as a suggestion, whilst seeking to explore that causes of current inequality, of various forms, and the nature of the mechanisms of power that maintain it is apparently to pursue a culture war. But, again, it is not. It is about seeking to understand the mechanisms that create disadvantage in our society, and which maintain them through prejudice.”
“The universal right to be treated equally has to be proclaimed again, and again, without fear.”
Was this written by the same person?
“I am aware that Joanna Cherry is a controversial person in the SNP, most especially on the subject of trans rights….I am not entering that debate”
This seems like quite a contradiction, you oppose the Tory ‘War on Woke’ and various attacks on human rights but then go tepid when it comes from someone in the SNP that you support.
“but I note the contribution Cherry has to make to it as a lesbian woman.” You made the fatal mistake of thinking that a queer person can’t be prejudiced to other queer people, when it does happen, too often.
As far as I am aware we all have prejudices, appreciated or unappreciated
That is what unconscious bias is all about
Our job is to fight against them
And I am aware that not all human beings are perfect
If you are, that’s amazing
I am not
Nor is Joanna Cherry, I am entirely sure
But are you going to cast the first stone? Or are you ignoring the plank in your eye?
I wish I thought you were wrong about this.
I left the SNP when it became clear that Ms Sturgeon was more interested in social identity politics, than delivering Independence, in fact Independence is now only a vehicle to achieve social change. The battles which will ensue will destroy the Party and the vision promoted by Alex Salmond and Jim Sillars of a free proud nation built on traditional values, work and contribution.
Never forget that Salmond brought the SNP back from the wilderness and without his input, Sturgeon would probably be languishing amongst a group of Green misfits.
Scotland despite the years of struggle against “the bosses”, the economic Fascism of the trade Unions etc is still a very conservative country in social matters, and the hierarchy of the present Party will come to deeply regret its change of direction.
When people start to deny and even proscribe undeniable truth, the road to totalitarianism looms.
I have posted this with some hesitation
I don’t see how saying that Nicholas Sturgeon could be consigned to a “group of Green misfits” is at all helpful in this discussion. Which of Patrick Harvey and the 4 other Green MSPs fit this description? Is advocating a green ,sustainable transition to a low carbon economy misfitting for the future of Scotland to prevent global overheating? Or fair pay and the abandonment of austerity?
I have always liked the Scottish Greens, just for the record
For years I have been of the opinion that the greatest danger to humanity was not “global warming” but that our economies would be wrecked by a viral pandemic. The possibility of that has now been made clear to us all.
I had imagined that a pandemic would be the result of carelessness in the experimentation with and transport of such viruses but now the prospect of viral warfare becomes a distinct possibility.
The problems associated with an ever higher standard of living cause damage to our environment and can quite simply be dealt with by taking a small step back…. if our politicians had the will or the courage to do so, yet the green brigade drive forward the means of production through so called clean energy ignoring the fact that we are surrounded by many more pressing but more easily solvable problems.
Thank you sir…you are a democrat.
Somehow, watching from the sidelines over the last eighteen months has moved me far from Alex Beveridge’s views. I’m more in tune with Alex Tickell, though less generous toward Nicola Sturgeon – too much has happened for her to see any benefit of the doubt. In fact, I very much doubt she will do anything to help the independence movement now. I live in hope, I’ll pass on speculation regarding her motivation, but whatever the public face in Holyrood, she has become toxic to independence.
Self serving idiots all. Never done a days work in all your lives and have little idea what everyday Scots think in your, ie. all on this feed.
Since I very clearly have done a days work in my life I think I shall safely assume the rest of your claims are wrong
Terry, It may interest you to know that I left school at 15 to be a builder, I am still on the tools at well over 70. In that time I have learned many things, the most important being not to make assumptions on fellow humans about whom I know nothing.
The raison d’ etre of the Party has been extinguished to be replaced by identity politics which feeds into the young mind as being beneficial regarding human rights, equality etc, but turns off older and wiser people who see these arguments as disruptive and nonsensical and who wish to hear views on how our economy can perform, our relationship to other UK countries, our preferred currency and trading arrangements.
Not that I have to justify myself to you Terry, but I worked for 54yrs until forced to retire due to ill health. Since then I have canvassed, leafleted, with one goal in mind. An independent Scotland. That is why I hope I’m correct, because in speaking to real people on the doorstep, you discover very quickly what is important to them.
I think you will be interested in this:
https://yoursforscotlandcom.wordpress.com/2021/02/02/power-attracts-the-worst-and-corrupts-the-best/
The party I joined over 12 years ago no longer exists.
Readers who are interested in learning what is going on in the SNP at present might find this interview of Iain Lawson by Barrhead Boy enlightening. It is quite long but I found it interesting and informative. At about 27mns in their is mention of the SNP’s adoption of a policy for a Scottish currency. An interesting comment was made.
http://www.barrheadboy.com/scottish-prism-2nd-feb-2021-iain-lawson/
I remember 1979 and the heady times of campaigning for a popular sitting MP. Car cavalcades with flags and bunting and Scottish music blaring but then I sensed a slight change in the dynamic. What had begun as a novelty had gone on too long and the electorate were beginning to get weary.
Being the ‘new kid on the block’ I kept my concerns to myself.
Sure enough at about 7pm, the Labour party came out with their own cavalcade.
Short and sharp. “VOTE LABOUR THE ONLY WAY TO KEEP THATCHER OUT IS TO VOTE LABOUR” over and over and over again. And boy did it work and for a long time, a lot of people couldn’t believe how gullible they’d been.
The moral – “It’s not making the most noise that works. It’s making the most effective noise”.
I’ve got a sinking feeling something similar is in the pipeline folks..
I accept that Alex Salmond and Joanna Cherry view’s might represent some older small c conservative social values in Scotland, despite his appalling behaviour towards much younger women that he admitted to in his trial at the Court of Session.
However, I think that they’re both way behind social attitudes of young Scots when it comes to the modest changes proposed in the GRA.
This is not the issue here
I’m afraid it is.
I will not vote for a political party led by Joanna Cherry. Nor will anyone else I know, because they will not abandon trans people.
Support for minorities is more important for us than Independence (and I speak as someone who voted yes last time, and has been hoping he gets to vote yes successfully soon.)
I hear what you say
Two things to consider here.
1. Nicola Sturgeon is a former solicitor. What kind of law she practiced and with which organisation no one knows! It’s interesting to ponder on why a solicitor would give up a law career to enter politics at such a tender age.
Nevertheless Mz Sturgeon is well equipped to employ legal manoeuvering.
2. Peter Murrell appears to be a shadowy machiavellian character. His Wikipedia page has had more than twice the number of updates in the last two months compared to the previous thirty+ years.
He also worked alongside Alex Salmond for nearly ten years. If he failed to notice a tendency to inappropriate behaviour to younger women as you describe in that length of time then he is rather incompetent wouldn’t you agree?
I”ve been severely disappointed on this week’s events 1st NEC debacle 2nd Joanne Cherry QC & to add insult to Joanne’s injury replacing her with Start McDonald & Anne McLaughfin & the only letters after her name is BMI .
I’m thinking of trading in my Roll’s Royce in for ah Morris Minor i’m sure the Nicola stalwarts would say i’v made the rite decision .
The Labour Party has been all but destroyed by the whole row about antisemitism and its follow up by Starmer. The Green Party is being disrupted / diverted by trans rights, ditto the SNP.
I do wonder if these people demanding their rights have any real affiliation to the political party of their choice or have been put there with the intention of diverting much energy and sowing much discord to make the party dysfunctional. Interestingly the Conservatives appear quite able to ensure that claims of Islamaphobia and racism gain no traction whatsoever, inspite of the fact they appear head and shoulders more prejudiced than any other party (bar UKIP / BNP).
For me the big picture is independence. I’m fine with Nicola as leader. I’d be fine with Joanna Cherry or Alex Salmond as leader.
I do wonder if some of this is orchestrated by hostile agents. It’s something that historically the British secret services have been very good at. The method is to infiltrate an organisation, find the fault lines then gently encourage people to get more cross than they started out over genuine grievances.
The counter is to not rise to it.
If Sturgeon resigns that’s fine the movement will continue on. If this becomes a civil war with people overtly briefing against each other then the SNP risks haemorrhaging popularity just on the point of success. The Yes movement could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
People don’t separate Yes from the SNP and don’t separate the SNP from Nicola. Nicola leaving under a cloud would lose a lot of votes.
Should she go, if we were talking in a vacuum? I suspect she probably should, I suspect she’d probably like to.
But she can’t go now without significantly harming the movement.
Unfortunately both the SNP and the Scottish Greens seem to be shooting themselves in the foot with their obsessive pursuit of gender identity politics. Joanna Cherry MP was sacked, and has subsequently received a 2nd death threat, for not going along with SNP plans to give men the legal right to self-identify as women. Less than 2 months ago, Andy Wightman MSP resigned from the Greens because he objected to the way he was made to support party policy denying rape victims the right to be examined by someone of the same sex.
It is hard to escape the conclusion that key figures in the leadership of each party are more concerned about promoting ‘trans rights’ (and eroding the rights of women), than with building support for independence.
I think further comment on this issue is closed
Some of the above comments only reinforce my dislike of party politics.
It would be very interesting if a newly independent Scotland could be successfully governed without the party system, a sustainable and democratic system with full PR.
Most movements that start off small but end up mainstream seem to have infighting and other issues.
Maybe it is just human nature, but if Scotland does gain independence, a continuing punch-up in a ruling party will undermine any hope of progress.
I would hope it will split very quickly
Scotland could not afford another ANC
Scotland is quite protected from having a “ruling party” in the UK tradition.
The same voter base that gives the SNP in the Westminster parliament gives us 61/129 seats in the Scottish Parliament. Even at the height of our popularity we don’t have a simple majority and have to work with other parties to get government bills through.
Afaik there are no plans to change the way the Scottish Parliament is elected post-independence.
I also think that the SNP is being held together by the independence issue and will have to something extraordinary to keep its vote share without that unifying issue.
Apologies I meant to include that the SNP won 48 out of 59 Scottish Westminster parliament seats.
There was an interesting comment I heard – from a woman, in the Mid 80’s about what I will call a ‘Feminist’ organisation – I will mention it at the bottom so Richard may – or may not choose to include it but that they were extraordinarily disruptive to various progressive causes which had led to a view that they were funded by the CIA. Given that the organisations funding was far from transparent it was not without some justification.
I have a suspicion that some current organisations may be similar.
YouGov 21-25 January 2021:
Nicola Sturgeon’s favourability among SNP voters: 91% (+83 net), and Yes voters: 82% (+67 net).
Alex Salmond’s favourability among SNP voters: 27% (-36 net), and Yes voters is at 28% (-36 net).
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/pdqzw72qoe/InternalResults_Favourabilitty_210125.pdf
No one is, I presume, saying Salmond is coming back
Maybe I’m old-fashioned, but I think we normally wait until the verdict (or verdicts) are in before checking the trap door still works.
Many a high profile person has been sentenced by the press, the bloggers, the Twitteratee etc on the basis that the accusations are so serious and there are so many of them (and of course hearsay from [un-named] “reliable” sources) that therefore he/she must be guilty. Some sections of the press (and others) could scarcely contain their glee when AS was charged. Something similar is happening now with NS. Some people are too quick to jump on a bandwagon. Remember the case of George Monbiot (and many others) and Lord McAlpine?
Like Mark Twain stories of her demise might be greatly exaggerated. Who knows? And here’s an interesting development: https://www.thenational.scot/news/19059637.salmond-inquiry-committee-wont-publish-whatsapp-messages-handed-crown/
Having said that, I agree that sacking Joanna Cherry was a huge error. A blogger I follow has some interesting thoughts on the subject: https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-leadership-need-to-decide-whether.html
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-way-forward.html
I am reporting what I hear, and appraising evidence I have read, and assessing odds
I will offer my one critical assumption, which is the Greens will nit vote fir her in a motion of no confidence, which is what I suspect will be tabled
That is the basis for my judgement
Sturgeon is doing to the SNP voters and membership what Starmer is doing to the Labour voters and membership.
Alex Tickell makes a good point. Pandemics might well “get us” before climate change does. We really are playing with fire here. What we have to reckon with is this – we are the alpha predator sitting at the apex of a hierarchical pyramid.
The higher up this pyramid body size/mass increases and reproduction rate decreases. The lower down this pyramid the body size/mass decreases and reproduction rate increases. As reproduction rate increases so does the mutation rate and with it the rate of adaptation. The bugs are better equipped to survive the apocalypse than we are by a factor of something high on the logarithmic scale. We have already decimated the other species near the top of this pyramid, allowing imbalances in ecosystems which were once kept in check by predators. Great turbulence is churning in the middle of this pyramid and (this is allegorical rather than scientifically descriptive) this turbulence is “stirring up the sediment” at the base of the pyramid……precisely the organisms which reproduce rapidly and adapt quickly. Time to wake up. Time to understand our place – to “know of our water” (Old Chinese proverb says that “the fish is the last to know of water”). We truly have arrived at a barren shore – no rescue will come, no ferry to a promised land, no deliverance – we have to do it for ourselves. Counting up the money won’t get us there.
”Pandemics might well “get us” before climate change does”
Maybe….if we carry on as we are. And yes, there are plenty of pressing problems that it might be possible to solve before ”global warming”.
But we mustn’t lose sight of the big picture – the human race is racing to destroy the environment that sustains it.
In any case it’s not an either/or challenge: the kind of steps we need to urgently take to rebuild biodiversity and minimise the impacts of climate change (I fear it’s too late to ‘stop’ climate change) are exactly what will help protect us from future pandemics.
A virus can do a thousand years of natural selection/evolution in a week because it reproduces so quickly.
(I actually made the 1,000 years in a week bit up. but it is kinda true)
It’s the speed of reproduction, which through mutations, causes new strains, that is our real problem. It’s evolving very quickly in evolutiterms.
We are in a race against evolution and vaccines only buy us time.
The situation in Scotland is even more serious than you suggest, Richard. If the rumours and allegations are true, Nicola and her cohorts may well end up in court on criminal charges. Further, if true, she and those involved in the plot ought to be imprisoned.
The one thing Sturgeon has going for is that her likely replacement (Joanna Cherry) might be a bigger headache for the UK Government. The MSM are aware of this and are giving Sturgeon a very easy ride right now, but it’s hard to believe that will continue for much longer.
In the British Government’s shoes, would you want to bring down Sturgeon now and deal with someone like Cherry who is likely to take a much more aggressive stance towards independence? Cherry has already given Boris a hard time. They know what she is made of – she’s the real deal.
Sturgeon by contrast is much more predictable and cautious. She’s done nothing towards independence since Brexit. If anything she has weakened the hand of Scottish independence by stating that it is only achievable through the section 30 process. Cherry believes there may be other roads to independence that do not depend on UK Government approval.
In many respects, Sturgeon is the sort of leader of the SNP that the UK Government would pray for.
The best situation for the UK government involves Sturgeon staying, much weakened but there nevertheless. They have a sword hanging over her that they can let drop at any time. If Sturgeon stays and has a poor election in May, the UK and Unionist media will say it proves people don’t want independence. There’s a good chance they will weaponise the Salmond stuff in March in order to make sure she is weakened for the election in May. Timing is everything.
This deception by the BBC and MSM, in holding off and giving Sturgeon a much easier time than she deserves on the Salmond stuff, represents the thread that Sturgeon’s career and possibly her liberty hangs by. When ordinary people in Scotland hear what I believe is the truth of what has been done to Salmond, I think the country will be in a state of shock.
Keep in mind, the mainstream media is NOT in favour of Scottish independence. They are delighted when a ‘split’ seems to appear in the indy movement, or when disgruntled SNP members go running to them to air grievances–which has been happening for years. If they don’t get their way, they run to complain to the media. The media are more than happy to oblige. Interesting that the opposing (often majority) ‘story’ never seems to get aired.
I’d say avoid Trial By Media. We will see how this Sturgeon/Salmond thing plays out. But for the moment, I’d say keep calm and carry on. It’s Nicola and her stint as First Minister which has overseen the rise in support for independence to where it looks as if the majority of Scots will vote for it. Of course the opponents of independence would be delighted to see her brought down by any means possible. Wouldn’t they?
I have been hearing same (re AS case bringing NS downfall) from powerful unionist associates with strong links to English establishment for sometime. It has clearly been a hoped for outcome. It’s presentation as inevitable (and of the prescience of those in with the in) smacks of the arrogance we’ve seen from Westminster to Holyrood. I suspect SNP did try to manage JC but couldn’t. The why in that is interesting. Of note JC has been a politician for 5 yrs. NS her adult life. JC does not have the broad based political skills to be a leader. Her skill set is excellent but narrow. She is too divisive. Kate Forbes will be the leader who replaces NS in my view in time. Remember Scottish people are well versed in Union tactics. A vocal minority will be wound up. Most of us, we see the unionists play and it only strengthens our resolve
I don’t think it will be Unionists who bring Sturgeon down.
The Greens will.
And the reasons are here. https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2021/01/15/for-those-who-thought-scotland-has-the-kind-of-leadership-we-should-aspire-to-it-may-be-time-to-think-again/
For you readers consideration.
Mark Hirst (@Documark) Tweeted: “There is an overwhelming likelihood in my view that the criminal leak(s) of [Aug 2018 to Daily Record] came from within Government and were committed with the intention of damaging my reputation but with no regard whatsoever to the interests of complainers.” – Alex Salmond. https://twitter.com/Documark/status/1356998904479444995?s=20