As the Guardian notes this morning:
The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5% in the three months to November — up from 4.9%, and the first time it's been that high in more than four years, according to the the Office for National Statistics.
This means that the number of payroll employees has fallen by 828,000 since February 2020 and that around 1.72 million people were out of work in the quarter, up 418,000 on the same period the previous year, and 202,000 higher than in the previous quarter.
All of these numbers are troubling. I have a loathing of unemployment and real concern for all who suffer it. And yet, what is also baffling is how low the figures are. The economic crisis we are facing remains very deep. Why are so few unemployed?
One answer is, of course, continuing economic support via furlough and other schemes. This results in data being massively distorted, albeit with hope that jobs might just survive this crisis still.
There is also another factor that the FT notes today. Foreign workers are fleeing the UK as the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit impact on job prospects. I have read the data underpinning their findings, which rightly says the figures are uncertain, but it is likely that 1.3 million people have left the UK in little over a year, with 700,000 leaving London alone.
The figures are, of course, approximate, but they are also evidence based. And they also seem likely. Many in sectors badly hit by coronavirus, in particular, have given up hope of working in the UK, and left.
No wonder unemployment seems so small.
And no wonder rents are falling in London.
But this is not all good news. Some of these people priced themselves into work here, without doubt. But many did so by bringing skills way in excess of that their pay rate suggested they have. They will be badly missed when recovery begins.
The real story behind unemployment is always lost potential. There is more being lost in the UK at present than the headline stats reveal. And that does not have good long term implications. .
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The construction industry is a case in point – we might joke about those Polish plumbers and carpenters but there is a chronic shortage of skills in these areas, perhaps reflecting the failure by the industry to invest in training and apprenticeships over decades. That will hold back ambitions to build more houses and upgrade housing to meet higher environmental standards.
A friend who runs a small specialist construction company pointed out that his key engineers were Romanian. Its not just fruit pickers and barristas who are fleeing the country.
Worth noting.
https://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2021/1/brexit-hits-rental-market-as-number-of-eu-nationals-plummets
Could be big hits this year. Where will the farms get their labour from? And all the other employers that need seasonal labour usually from the EU? I can’t imagine a big desire for EU nationals to come here anymore and that was even before covid.
I also wonder on that 5% unemployment figure. Tory Governments have become so good at massaging it down. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is at least double that.
There are also thousands of people who do not register for UC because of the hassle and shame (as they see it) after the Tory propaganda about benefit claimants being scroungers. These people scrape by – support from relatives and friends, casual cash in hand odd jobs, savings etc but if the system was more fair and dignified would be signing on more readily.
Agreed
A few years ago it was pointed out that the big growth in benefits expenditure was ‘In work’ benefits not out of work or unable to work.
Who then is thy benefits scrounger?
Truepublica has a well researched tally of jobs lost to Brexit – 436,000 at last count. All government statistics should be considered with enormous suspicion – two super recent examples are the rough sleeping count (under 5000 in government figures and over 40000 on local authority placement in the early Covid phase), and the current EU settled status figures 4.3 million against initial estimate of 3.2 million likely to require registration. Not a clue. What a way to run a country.
I’ve always thought that for many people Brexit was too complicated and confusing and they would wait till it landed then see what they wanted to do.
This (rather obvious) expectation has been proving true since Jan 1st in a number of ways. One way is that EU residents have confirmed that this country is no longer suitable for them to live in long term and are going home. The attractiveness of the UK as a place to live is not being helped by our mismanagement of covid.
So I think a significant but under-reported exodus may be going on and that the data you offer here are only the start of what will be a significant loss of people over the next several months as EU nationals finalise their arrangements to leave this country and build their lives elsewhere.
Very sad.
So you are saying that we fudged our unemployment stats by not counting foreigners who no longer live here as part of the count?
Are you really being serious?
I am suggesting that explains why the figure is not what I would expect it to be
I would have really thought that was glaringly obvious
Unless you want to be stupid
No doubt they can return if and when things improve..that is very obvious too
No, maybe they can’t now
Worth pointing out that unlike most European Nations we dont have a population register or ID card system so we dont have an accurate figure for the population
This is the latest on rental price inflation from the ONS for London and the UK as a whole
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/indexofprivatehousingrentalprices/december2020
London saw annual growth in private rental prices of 0.9%.
Which is not what is being widely reported elsewhere
See https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/jan/27/private-rents-fall-in-uks-biggest-cities-by-up-to-12-amid-covid-crisis
Asking rents in some of the UK’s biggest city centres saw annual falls of up to 12% in the last quarter of 2020 as some tenants swapped centres for suburbs
Inner London has been hardest hit with average asking rents falling annually by 12.4%, followed by Edinburgh city centre down 10% and Manchester city centre down 5.3%
The number of rental properties on Rightmove more than doubled in some city centres, with the biggest jumps in Leeds (+179%), Inner London (+139%) and Nottingham (+139%)
Outside London, asking rents rose in Q4 for the first time, leading to another record of £972 per month, and London is the only region recording an annual fall, down by 6.4%
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/rental-price-tracker/
On the plus side, I volunteered last week as a driver for my district council (one day only) delivering school lunch supplies to pupils who were home schooling. My colleague was a middle-aged Syrian refugee who had been here for several years and was doing a council apprenticeship in the trade he worked at in Syria but for which he had no valid certificates. His two children were studying academic subjects at university and will no doubt be a benenfit to society, whether here or in Syria.
These are not scroungers and are not stealing our jobs for lower wages.