This was written as a Twitter thread, but apart from imposing a constraint on the length of each paragraph it could have also been a blog post, so I lost it as one as well:
Rarely has the UK faced an existential crisis like the one it does at this moment. The relationships between its member nations are uncertain. We face meltdown with the EU, even if we get a deal. And the special relationship with the US is anything but that. This is unprecedented
What has now happened in this mess? The architects of it, secure in the knowledge that the damage they sought to create has been delivered and their consulting futures are secure, have walked out of government. Is that by chance? No. It's deliberate distraction.
The Brexiteers aim has always been apparent. It has been to maximise the chance of disruption. That's because they believe financial capitalism works best in such conditions. And they are right. Moments of chaos are times when hedge funds have greatest chance of making money.
But this is a very particular form of capitalism. It has nothing to do with business, or the creation of wealth. It is not about added value. It is simply about using financial power to exploit uncertainty to extract value from others during conditions of chaos.
This type of capitalism is parasitic. It's aim is to redistribute wealth from many to a few, which few hope to accumulate so greatly that their position is secure thereafter. It is wholly exploitative. It is wholly destructive.
Like the slave owner and feudal landlord, those undertaking this type of capitalism hope that amassed wealth will insulate them from the consequences of their actions. Those consequences, they are quite sure, are for ‘the people' of whom they are not a part.
Brexit delivers this chaos. The critical decisions on Brexit are to be made this week. And the Brexiteers created chaos just before that was going to happen. Was that chance? I put the probability at less than 1%. This was planned, down to the exit cardboard box.
What was the aim? To disable decision making at this crucial moment by creating confusion for Johnson, I suggest. Feeling rudderless, their hope is he will simply fall back on the mantras he has tried so hard to ingrain in the country that he might believe and act on them now.
What are those mantras? That we must leave, of course. For those who have already left - taking with them the knowledge of the chaos to come that they can now sell - this is their route to riches, having served their time in power. No book deals for them, suspect.
And for the rest of us? The certain knowledge that we have been played and exploited, with the certainty to come that the country will be laid to waste as the consequences of this very rapidly become apparent.
I have the horrible, sickening, feeling, that nothing can be done to prevent the damage that we are to suffer. Only an application to extend the transition period would provide a glimmer of hope of that possibility now. There is no certainty it would even be agreed.
So we now lie, literally awaiting a disaster so easy to foretell. And if anyone thinks the Brexiteers lost this weekend, think again. They have got everything they wanted. It will be many years before the prosperity that should have been ours will be restored.
Right now this might look like an existential crisis. But it is so much more than that.
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We have known that Brexit will be some sort of disaster since June 2016. Agree that that deferring the transition until December 2021 may spare us the immediate calamity regarding port chaos, supply chain disruption and much else, but will good sense prevail before then? With the Tories dominated by the ERG and nutters even further to the right, what chance is there for some sane solutions that doesnt’ involve high tariffs and trading disadvantages and all the other aspects that the remain campaign pointed out? The Tories U turn when disaster is imminent but in this case their spots will not change until it is too late.
It sounds like a speech to me.
The sort you dream of hearing one of our progressive politicians making.
It will join a very long list speeches that progressive politicians have not made but should have.
My view currently is that those of us alive now are captives of history; this is not our time unfortunately. But it is coming.
I think that when the generation who saw the UK IMF crisis in 70’s die away as well as the birth and grip of Neo-liberalism – when those events pass from memory – I think that that will help to foster different approaches because people will not be so haunted by them.
This is not a defeatist attitude BTW; the work Richard and others do now can pave the way for that future.
I hope so
Even if I am not there to see it
On the positive side, if this Tory government does misuse it’s position to make a short term financial killing, it will be the end of them for good.
“Get Brexit Done” says it all. The pressure within the Conservative party of today is keeping to simple electioneering slogans rather than dealing with the complexities of government. All the signs are that a No Deal is where the UK is heading. Indeed Simon Coveney (Eire Foreign Minister) said that even with a deal, it could not be ratified because of the Internal Market Bill. The relevant clauses will not be withdrawn by HMG, as they are a central part of their macho posturing.
Consequences? A substantial fall in sterling, further drops in export activity, inward investment, and shortages of skilled labour, coupled with increased hostility to Johnny Foreigner.
So, plan for the new reality, both at a personal and business level.
Do you read Joseph Stiglitz? Do you rate him as an economist? Do you agree he believes in social equality?..Well he was adamant Britain should leave the EU. He thinks the EU through the euro had caused phenomenal inequality in Europe…of course he believes the EU can work BUT ONLY if all member states join the Euro and crucially we have a Federal Europe..I agree with him 100% but as we all know that isn’t going to happen for Britain and probably many other member States too. So please don’t claim all leavers are rascist, right wing, small minded etc (though some definitely are).. instead reflect on the rational thoughts of Joe Stiglitz as economic justification for leaving. He thinks many others should leave too the EU is it’s current guise.
I am not claiming all people who believe in Brexit are “all leavers are rascist, right wing, small minded etc” although I agree ” some definitely are”
And I think Joie Stiglitz was wrong
I actually do not rate him very highly
And this was a case of his theory getting in the way of the reality of political economy – which is not what he does
“And I think Joie Stiglitz was wrong..I actually do not rate him very highly..And this was a case of his theory getting in the way of the reality of political economy”
Except he has been proved right. Germany has prospered beyond all recognition at the expense of Southern Europe who face lost generations who face long term unemployment or at best poor employment opportunities. That is the reality of the political economy of the EU as it stands..the hard evidence is there. Stiglitz is right it will need a Federal Europe to work effectively.
That has nothing to do with the EU
That us the euro
Please get your claims right
I have always been totally opposed to the euro
The transition period realistically needs to be extended by several years in order for us to be able to extricate ourselves from the present form of the EU. However, during that time the EU and the world around us would itself be evolving, making the task more complex and necessitating further extensions. Leaving simply isn’t practical. Oh well… chaos is what the nation deserves for endlessly promoting the connected over the able and we’ll be getting it in spades for the foreseeable future. I can live for around six months off the fat on my belly and supplies of something edible might have stabilised by then. I just hope my meds don’t run out as there’s nothing I can do about that.
Meanwhile Will Hutton is reporting “The Labour party, apparently, is even debating voting for Johnson’s deal to show it has left Remain behind.”
Starmer is rapidly completing the destruction of the Labour Party. Is the guy not willing to stand up for ANY principles? so far the evidence is that he isn’t – what a total disappointment.
I hope they do not
Labour must not try to gratify the leave vote.
From Will Hutton’s article today ”
Mike Hawes, speaking for the motor industry, says: “Only an ambitious deal… will safeguard livelihoods and drive investment.”
There was more in the same vein from farmers, chartered accountants, the pharmaceutical industry, ceramics, the City, motor manufacturers, airports, airlines, energy, creative industries, hi-tech. Even country landowners and the security industry added their weight. I can’t remember such urgency and unanimity from every nook and cranny of British business. For their pains, it was hardly reported.”
The situation in January will produce many people angry at losing their job, shortages, rising prices and general chaos.
Only then will the media allow them to speak and the public will be looking people to hold to account. To be part of the ‘establishment’ which permitted it, will not be good for Labour. They are supposed to be on the side of less well off.
Richard
There is an alternative view on what lies behind Cummings’ exit.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/furious-boris-johnson-axed-dominic-23011579
“Top aide Dominic Cummings was axed after Boris Johnson’s fianceé was nicknamed Princess Nut Nuts.
Boris flipped after Carrie Symonds revealed texts showing the Cummings faction was using the cruel moniker.”
I’ve done it again and misread the headlines.
I read about Boris ‘self-isolating’ this morning and initially thought it said ‘self-loathing’.
Damn it. I suppose one can continue to hope!
Brexit and the Covid legacy are the biggest threats ever to the economy and the country. The media have much to answer for, particularly regarding the looming Covid legacy.
With the cry of ‘How are we going to pay for government spending?’ currently ringing out across the media it should be the duty of the same media to give proper attention to Modern Monetary Theory which shows with unchallengeable authority what you have tried to make abundantly clear: that government spending is not like household spending; that it does not depend on income from tax; that the National Debt is not at all like household debt – it does not ‘burden’ future generations; that government spending is not limited by ‘budget deficits’, only by exceptional inflation and exceptional employment (neither likely in the foreseeable future); and that whenever even small amounts of ‘debt’ have been repaid, such occasions have been followed by some form of economic downturn, the inevitable result of taking money out of the economy.
This is the basis of the ‘deficit myth’ which has been exposed by yourself and Professor Stephanie Kelton. You have shown how the myth has been perpetuated by successive governments in order to falsely justify unjustifiable austerity, particularly cuts to local councils, the NHS, welfare and social care, and to attack the imaginary ‘profligacy’ of opposition parties. With government fiscal policies preoccupied with transferring government-created money, and the profits that accrue, to the private sector, it should be the duty of all, but certainly independent, media to expose the truth about government finance. It’s not just a myth; it’s deceit and a national scandal of epic proportions.