I make no apology for returning to the A level theme that I have noted for a couple of days. This blog is a stream of consciousness, as much as anything. It represents my reaction to world events, and in my world this has been a big deal for the last few days. My son and I are, we now know, amongst the lucky ones. We could celebrate last night, and not all could.
This year's results are not, however, my main concern this morning. Next year's are. And they are just as important to those who will be taking them as this years have been to people like my son. The prospect that those results will be severely impacted by the coronavirus crisis is very real. And that is an issue I have not seen anyone mention in the mainstream media as yet.
There is an assumption that this year's results will be aberrational: a disruption in an otherwise smooth flow of results that would otherwise exist from 2019 to 2021, but that is not true. In fact, it is likely to be very far from it. I can, in fact, make a fairly confident set of predictions right now, presuming that there are A level exams in 2021, and nothing should be taken for granted at present.
The first is that students from private schools will perform at way above average level. Their schooling has been relatively uninterrupted during the summer term of 2020, largely because it was reasonable for those schools to presume that every pupil could partake in online learning.
Second, and inversely, state school performance will be worse. They could not deliver a continuing curriculum during a crucial term, or provide the exam training that is, rightly or wrongly, a key part of that team's work for their pupils. Those pupils will not be as well prepared as is desirable as a result. That is the consequence of their inability to assume all pupils could access online learning.
And third, the impact noted in my second point will be exaggerated by income factors. The lower a pupil's parental income is likely to be the harder access to education during the last term was also likely to be, through lack of IT resource, uninterrupted space to study, and so on.
As a result it is entirely possible to say now, and with absolute certainty, that next year's A level results will not see a return to normal.
It is equally certain that those results will be heavily biased in favour of those pupils with the best off parents, and most especially those who have attended private schools.
It follows that without allowing for this fact the 2021 A level results will fail next year's sixth formers, and most especially those from lower income households attending state schools. That means planning to correct for this has to start now, unless the government is indifferent to the injustice this will give rise to.
And nor will the problem end there. Those aged 15 who will be taking GCSEs next year are also impacted by this. The consequences will flow through to their post 16 choices and A levels. There is very likely impact in that case until the 2023 A level results, at least.
My question in that case is a simple one, and is what is to be done about this, unless we are to be indifferent to the resulting prejudice? This year's mess can be dismissed as a fiasco, even if an utterly arbitrarily unfair one. But next year's issue is wholly anticipatable, because I am doing that now. It cannot be avoided in that case. And I suggest that the injustice cannot be avoided either.
So what is to be done? I have no answers, at least as yet. I do not claim that I can formulate answers to every problem I can foresee arising. But unless this issue is addressed now the scale of the anger at the injustices that will result will be even greater than this year, where some degree of forgiveness for the mess is at least possible on the part of some. Next year there will be no such tolerance.
The key issue is that we are not going back to normal.
And that means that ministers need to prepare for that reality.
And so, too, does everyone else.
The post-Covid world is not going to be the same as the pre-Covid one. We need to embrace that reality. Few have. And ministers do not appear to be amongst those few. It's time they rose to the challenge, and prepared the ground. How society develops from here depends upon them doing so.
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Well, that’s a fine challenge that has been issued. Good stuff.
There will be nowhere to hide next time. My daughter will be doing A levels next year and we are encouraging her to get the best mock result she can just in case.
My son will be doing his GCSEs and he has been told the same. Both are going to have to become independent learners much earlier than anticipated but that is the way forward.
Indeed…
Good luck
It’s quite a shock to realise that I( have now left the school system behind
Education expert now I see? Add that to your other long list of other recently acquired fields of expertise.. Environmental science, Epidemiology, Derivatives, credit instruments, Constitutional governance, everything to do with Scotland, everything to do with politics, everything to do with economics, everything thing to do with tax, everything to do with accountancy… I am sure I do you a disservice and have missed plenty out. I really don’t know where you find the time to play with your train set as well.
I’ve been a university professor for five years
I’d have thought that gave me a voice on education
And certainly more experience than our Secretary of State
But if you wish to pursue for silliness please feel free….as long as it is somewhere else
That you should think that a little bit of part-time university lecturing equips you to comment on full time teaching at O and A level is sufficient to show that you shouldn’t be commenting.
Very politely, what I have said is glaringly obvious stuff and does not require educational expertise, although I have some of that
What you’re saying is ‘shut up’ and ‘to the line’
What qualifies you to say that? Please tell us, in some detail.
Clearly the country’s education system failed Jesse in that he can’t see the irony in his comment!
Jesse
All good parents are educational experts and Richard is one of those too.
BTW – have you ever heard of polymathy?
No – I thought not.
Do us a favour and stick to commenting on say the Telegraph’s website? Or the the Times? Or what about the Daily Mail perhaps? The Sun – maybe?
Cheers.
“BTW — have you ever heard of polymathy”
Oh you see Richard as being able to enlighten you on all areas of complexity..hang on to that, blind faith is a powerful emotion to hang on to..to the rest he’s like the bloke down the pub offering his opinions to anybody who listens. He too becomes a source of humour for many..
Let’s just mention why I might know something about this
15 years a school governor, most as chair or vice chair
4 years a director of an HE college, heavily involved throughout in its restructuring
5 years a university professor
But I have no right to offer an opinion because I know nothing about education?
The only fool around here is you
What is the point of this comment Jesse? Other than to troll.
I have 4 kids at school doing GCSE and A levels . The 5th one is at university and hopefully will be doing his 3rd year in September. My two youngest are doing their GCSEs, and my 15-year-old will be sitting that exam next year. Also, my daughter and son will be sitting their A levels next year as well. The income their mother is on is not poor by any standards, but I suspect their grades will be reduced next year if they are unable to sit the exams
Absolutely. This year’s upper sixth mostly lost study leave and the actual exams, but next year’s lost at least a third of their vital lower sixth year, and god knows what might happen over the next seven or eight months, but something like a fifth to a quarter of their entire A level contact time already. The year after had disrupted GCSE exams and the two years after that disrupted year 10 and year 9. The latter two might be ok if schools return (and continue without interruption) from September. But that means at least three more school years with substantially disrupted teaching.
I expect some disgruntled/disappointed students/parents will sue the exam boards and they’ll have to disclose the “algorithm” so perhaps they should just publish it now. More importantly, they need to prepare better for next year. Although they had about five months (from mid March to mid August) this year, and here we are.
If I was an agent of some foreign power (honestly Special Branch I’m not) how could I design a cascade systems failure causing lasting serious damage? Something that creates bitter social and political division, damages the nation’s long term physical and mental health, significantly reduces the economic prospects for the UK, and damages relationships with neighbouring nations. Back in May 2019 I would have said it was too big an ask and require a lot of time, dedication and effort to bring such a situation about if it was possible.
Bojo and his circus have done it in a year. Robbing our children of hope is the cherry on this bitter, poisonous confection.
How far ahead does this government plan? One week? Two days? Twelve hours? My money is on about 36 hours. You are absolutely right in looking forward, but sadly not in the narrow so-called decision making group. Best wishes to your son in this most difficult of times.
Kudos to The Guardian for running this article on Ofqual’s algorithm failure:-
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/14/punishment-by-statistics-the-father-who-foresaw-a-level-algorithm-flaws
Indeed…
Kudos too to the person referred to (and I’ve now closed the link)
Sorry, long comment.
I am aware of someone missing an offer by (rather ridiculously) being allocated an A in maths and an A* in further maths. A significant number of people will be appealing to be allocated grades based on their better mock results, but the process is not clear and will take some time, and meanwhile some of the universities are not being very flexible.
The 320 page Ofqual interim report is extraordinary. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-gcse-as-a-levels-in-summer-2020-interim-report
“Based on the testing of the approaches applied this summer using results data from 2019, 51 of the 55 A levels tested had accurate predictions for more than 90% of students within plus or minus one grade.”
This is success? So, most subjects can allocate grates within an accuracy of plus/minus one grade for 90% of students. That means:
* they appear to be accepting plus/minus one grade as “accurate”, but pupils really need the specific grade they are given to be their *actual* grade, not within one to either side. One grade higher might be ok, but one grade lower is not good enough to meet a university offer.
* up to 10% of students are given results that might be inaccurate by two or more grades
* 4 subjects were not able to achieve even that level of (in)accuracy
“Overall, the levels of predictive accuracy are broadly comparable to measures of marking consistency across an equivalent range of subjects.”
* Oh, so why bother with exams at all in future, if the computer is just as accurate.
* But at least if you have done an exam, you can ask for it to be remarked. How do you challenge an algorithm?
* (Perhaps it is just me, but treating individuals like statistical data points subject to AI decisions makes me think of the Butlerian Jihad.)
“The analyses show no evidence that this year’s process of awarding grades has introduced bias.”
* Seriously, when it has demonstrably enhanced the entrenched advantage of private schools, which are correlated with economic advantage?
“Throughout the development and testing of the model, and in its implementation, we have taken all possible steps to ensure the process is as fair as it can be and, where possible, have taken design decisions in the students’ favour. ”
* So why the sudden retrofit of allowing appeals based on mock results? (The word “mock” appears on page 5, reporting the Secretary of State saying in March that “the government’s intention that results would be issued to this year’s cohort based on a range of evidence and data, including performance on mock exams and non-exam assessment” – but then mocks disappear until Annex R on page 316 – “Preliminary analysis shows that within GCSE and A level teaching staff, mocks were reported as by far the strongest source of evidence” – no shit Sherlock: so why have they been ignored in the algorithm?)
Lots of pretty diagrams and maths formulate and whatnot, but I could not find the one figure I’d like to see: what is the estimated percentage chance that the allocated grade is correct? Or equivalently, for each grade, what is the chance that the grade is too high or that it is too low. Are we saying that for example 70% may be correct, and by implication 30% are wrong? (Is the marking of normal exams is wrong just as often?)
Thanks
Appreciated that
Shorter comment. They should publish the algorithm so independent experts can review it. If (faint hope) it is robust they could abolish the exams and avoid a load of heartache for years to come. (Perhaps they should unleash DeepMind on the task of replicating the results of the last few years from the available data…) I’d also like to see a review of this report by some independent statisticians because despite its length and the wall of data it doesn’t look very convincing to me.
I am willing to believe you
As you might be able to tell, this debacle has got me hopping mad (and not for self-interest: my two got the grades they wanted).
This blogpost is fascinating, and I am glad to see the description of the grade allocation algorithm is getting the attention it needs people with the technical skills to take it apart: https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/
If that analysis is correct (I emphasise *if*) then the centre-assessed grades were simply window dressing. That blogpost suggests that the grades for each exam centre (broadly, each school) were determined by :
(a) starting with the prior performance of that centre over the last three years, in terms of the percentage of each grade from A* to U
(b) adjusting the percentages for (i) the prior achievement of the particular students, based on national statistics for the correlation between past performance and A level results, and (ii) the need to meet the desired national distribution of grades
(c) allocating students to grades one by one from top to bottom based on their ranking by the school to match the adjusted percentages.
No attention was paid to the characteristics of the particular students (apart from their past performance), or to the value added of the particular school, no attention was paid to exceptional candidates or to exceptional development, or a school with results improving year on year.
This comment nails it: “The most pernicious aspect of this is the lie that Centre Assessed Grades and therefore the professional opinion of tens of thousands of teachers were used in the process at all. The fact that the outputs generally correlate is an upshot of the process rather than a use of that data”
Thanks Andrew
Very helpful link
Your anger is wholly justified
My son also got his grades
But I am still livid
I love the comparison the Father makes between communist Vietnam and this country at the end. It’s so spot on.
I think that this exam debacle is going to really piss off a lot Tory voters – I think the biggest saviour of the country could well be the Tories own lack of empathy with….well……everybody and everything to be honest!!!!
Things are a bit more hopeful here in Wales. Pupils can rely on AS results and course work (both got rid of by M Gove in England?).
But AS levels will have been impacted this year as well
Everyone should be annoyed on the basis society will, at least temporarily, be denied the benefits of these young people’s abilities. They will be taking far longer, if they can still maintain interest at all in this absurd country, in becoming the doctors, the architects, the scientists, than under any reasonable regime they would have.
“if they can still maintain interest at all in this absurd country“
What a load of nonsenses. Is the country perfect? No but show me a country that is??
No one pretends perfection is possible
But the scale of abusive mismanagement we are now suffering is by choice
[…] By Richard Murphy, a chartered accountant and a political economist. He has been described by the Guardian newspaper as an “anti-poverty campaigner and tax expert”. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK. He is a non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics. He is a member of the Progressive Economy Forum. Originally published at Tax Research UK […]
Maybe this will be an impetus to reduce the testing and assessing culture and move on to learning for the sake of it. Because you want to understand more. Because it interests you. Assess the learning process, to improve it. Not the student, to judge them.
I’m a bit surprised that everybody is surprised. The trajectory of education in the UK since 1979 has been to favour fee paying schools, on the basis that this gives advantage to those with money. Tory and Tory-lite (B.Liar & Co) have all followed this trajectory. The grade deflation is to make sure that the “right” kind of people (from fee paying schools) get to the “right kind” of uni. Never let a good crisis go to waste & Covid certainly delivered.
Of-dumb will claim it was all a terrible accident, cue bowl of water, soap and towel followed by a good old fashioned round of English hand wringing and finger pointing. The English, getting dumber by the micro-sceond.
What concern me is the lack of curiosity by the examiners. If I had a statistical model and a data set that contradicted, I’d want to know which was right, not just assume it was my model.
I’d be asking for all cases where the grades differed by 3 grades and a representative sample of those where the difference was 2 grades be be subject to moderation. I think you have to accept 1 grade is difficult to challenge.
So teachers asked to submit evidence package (marked assignments, mock exams, course works etc) to allow a proper assessment.
I’m fairly convinced they haven’t done it, or they would have used it to support their position.
But you do have to ask why not!!
Indeed
Note to ‘Jesse’
The facts of the matter are that Richard’s blog started off being about tax in this country and as soon as you start investigating that it leads you onto other issues about Government money, how it is created and how it funds the services it has committed to and the performance of those commitments (the health service, social care, education, flood defences etc). Hence my comment about polymathy – the failures in these diverse areas I have just mentioned are all about an unwillingness to fund them all properly by YOUR Government Jesse.
The way in which this country has responded to the Covid pandemic – from the death rate and how its education and health systems have coped (or not) is the same – it’s all about money – or in this case, the lack of it.
I come here not to follow, but (1) to find like minded people who have their critical faculties intact (2) to get away from the stupid orthodoxy that is unthinkingly worshipped by too many other people and leads us to going around in circles. I want to hear new ideas and perspectives. There are other places doing this but I happen to have chosen this one. OK? And BTW this blog is also conduit for these other platforms of dissent – Richard is not a lone operator, he’s networked. And why? Because it’s all joined up I’m afraid; its complicated. Does that scare you Jesse? If it does, go somewhere else.
If you think life is ‘great’ Jesse – why bother coming here? If you find the depth of enquiry too deep, too complicated go and watch some cartoons or something. You don’t have to be here sniping at people who find this stuff interesting – you really don’t.
Thanks for expressing exactly my thoughts. I don’t understand trolls.
As Stephen Reicher pointed out yesterday in the Independent SAGE livestream, nearly 70% of private schools had daily, interactive, online lessons during lockdown, compared to 10% of state schools.
https://youtu.be/nzynQgToG0A?t=2801
We desperately need to equip state schools to deliver online lessons, which also means providing *all* students with broadband internet access and laptops.
This is the point I am making.
Absolutely, backing you up with more expert evidence!
I’m hoping some teachers weigh in to this discussion. They’re the ones on the frontline who will need to deliver whatever gets decided …either on purpose or by default. They might have some good ideas as to ‘what next.’