An article in the FT this morning explores issues concerning the future of the Dover — Calais trade route.
As the article notes, at present it takes an average of just four minutes from a lorry leaving a ferry in Dover for it to exit the port. However, after Brexit every single one of these vehicles will require customs clearance.
On the French side all the necessary arrangements for the post Brexit era have already been put in place and the technology has all been designed and is ready for installation in the ships so that drivers can be forewarned when on board of what will be required of them when they land.
In the UK no one, as yet, knows what the requirements will be. No technology has been trialled because that is impossible because the requirements are not known. Only 1,000 of the 150,000 regular importers and exporters have, so far, been granted an enhanced status to reduce the amount of delay that they might suffer. And as for the infrastructure, all that anyone knows is that it cannot be at the ports because there is no room for it there, but where it might be is anyone's guess. We can be quite sure that it is not in place.
Taking these factors into account my forecast, made yesterday, that we might suffer severe disruption to food supply chains after Brexit seems a little optimistic. Total breakdown seems more likely.
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Not just the French. The Dutch were ready over a year ago (remember when we were definitely leaving on 29 March 2019?).
But if push comes to shove, we could just wave all those lorries through at Dover with no checks. That is what we call “taking back control”, of course.
I don’t dutch government will give a favour a third country which uk will be after brexit. They will be more harsh than france interms of rules and system. Don’t forget that netherlands an Eu country and they will never give special treatment to a third country like uk. They will always listen and follow what other Eu countries agree like france. So you have lucky if france couldn’t block the Euro tunnel for good.
Indeed, the Dutch and the French (and others) are fully prepared to apply the full rigors of EU law at the border, as they must as soon as the transitional period ends. UK exporters (if we still have some by then) will need to have their paperwork fully in order from 1 January 2021, else they will get a really nasty and expensive surprise.
The UK, meanwhile, does not quite know yet what its policies and procedures will be, and hasn’t yet recruited the people we will need to implement them. The two main choices are (a) chaos at the UK border as people try to work out what the hell is meant to be happening, or (b) allowing everyone into the UK without checking (which is what we currently do most of the time).
How many members of the cabinet do you think have much experience of running an import/export business? Or indeed any kind of business at all? (Journalist; solicitor/civil service; banking analyst; PR; journalist; barrister; army; economist; accountant; management accountant; management accountant; manufacturing (can you guess who?); farmer; solicitor; printing and marketing; barrister; tent hire and self storage; surveyor; think tank; SpAd; accountant; market research; solicitor; fund manager; farmer; barrister.)
It would be quite fun to have that list with names attached
I’ll confess, I ran through the current list at Wikipedia – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Johnson_ministry – and clicked through and reviewed their biographies, picking out what appeared to be their main professional qualification / job before Parliament.
Some had careers that shifted around a bit, so I might have got a few a bit wrong, or placed the wrong emphasis (happy to be corrected if someone knows better).
In order, they are:
* Boris Johnson – journalist
* Dominic Raab – solicitor/civil service
* Rishi Sunak – banking analyst
* Priti Patel – PR
* Michael Gove – journalist
* Robert Buckland – barrister
* Ben Wallace – army
* Matt Hancock – economist/special adviser
* Alok Sharma – accountant
* Liz Truss – management accountant
* Th̩r̬se Coffey Рmanagement accountant
* Gavin Williamson – manufacturing
* George Eustice – farmer
* Robert Jenrick – solicitor
* Grant Shapps – printing and marketing
* Brandon Lewis – barrister
* Alister Jack – tent hire and self storage
* Simon Hart – surveyor
* Baroness Evans of Bowes Park – think tank
* Oliver Dowden – special adviser
* Anne-Marie Trevelyan – accountant
* Amanda Milling -market research
* Stephen Barclay – solicitor
* Jacob Rees-Mogg – fund manager
* Mark Spencer – farmer
* Suella Braverman – barrister
But I dare say you could play a similar game with any cabinet.
Too many accountants – most knowing the value of nothing
Only 1% of lorries and vans are checked at the moment which means customs must increase their capacaty by 100 times than at present. Michael Gove says 50,00 extra civil servants will be recruited but cagey on how many have been taken on as yet, let alone trained, technology, systems etc that you outline. Presumably the default position is WTO tariffs but nobody knows what these are and there will be a time lag of chaos between the end of transition on 31 December and whatever comes next. Not only food security will be affected but pharmaceuticals and loads of spare parts and other essential items will be disrupted under the “just in time” supply chain system.
Bill Hughes says:
“….Not only food security will be affected but pharmaceuticals and loads of spare parts and other essential items will be disrupted…..”
We were told about this disaster scenario last year. As referred to by another contributor, her Brexit store cupboard has been depleted by the Covid chaos. Nothing happened last year ….we survived the pandemic toilet roll shortage so there is a growing feeling of crying wolf. Presumably we are all assuming the government will cave in and go for a withdrawal extension…… but will they? They say not.
Rather than becoming better prepared for chaos and disruption there is a danger that we are becoming more careless and more complacent as the false alarms line up….. and the deadlines pass.
You refer to ‘phoney war’, Richard. On how many fronts can we fight phoney wars before something ‘gives’?
I wish I knew the answer to the last
Not all countries may be agreeable to abide by existing WTO tariff rates since the organisation is effectively a defunct organisation. The EU and China are trying to create a WTO replacement but I’m not sure if that’s operational. As far as Britain is concerned if another country decides it wants to play “hardball” on tariffs for political and/or economic reasons it can. Of course the British have been busy hyper-inflating the cost of their homes for five decades which feeds back into export costs and erodes the value pound. Given the country is far from being sustainable in feeding itself and manufactures this will cause further inflation with a No-Deal Brexit because increased tariffs will apply. British voters global and monetary system ignorance is destroying its democracy.
Ireland has been preparing for the very worst since the day the referendum was called. Irish ports are ready. Meanwhile, Cork harbour, the largest deepwater port in Europe (2nd largest in the world after Australia’s Port Arthur) is being redeveloped for the great British bypass.
A €600m connector is in progress to interconnect Irish and French electricity networks.
Even if Brexit were reversed tomorrow the effects of the self-harm, economically, reputationally, and in terms of trust by neighbours will last generations.
Agree with the last
And the rest is just wise
scaremongering as usual – we will get all the sh#tty food we need from the Donald. We will join half the country who couldn’t give a flying fig about these things.
I don’t know what to believe but I believe what you’re saying. Another thing I believe is that we have government that doesn’t give a FF about us and is supported by a media that is fully supportive of it. I just wonder if Labour had won the election having promised that our food standards wouldn’t be lowered and then casually reneged on that promise what kind of bile would have been heaped on them by the media. Would labour have got off so lightly on the pandemic mismanagement? The country is sleepwalking to disaster and the government could be in for a very rude awakening. A lot of people are going to feel betrayed by what looks like happening. Of course I may be wrong, it could be sunlit uplands and unicorns in 2021. The big worry for a lot of us is that the bricks might start flying through our windows even though we feel we’re blameless. Be nice to your neighbours. Don’t make enemies. Stay alert, even.
I see no sunny uplands right now
Having worked in Customs and Excise I am not surprised by this. The data required for import entries comprises I think up to about 54 data items on the Customs declaration form – which will be submitted online I assume. It may be that as some comments have said that everything will just be “waved through” and checks possibly carried out later at inland clearance depots – but are there enough of them with the staff capacity required to process them ? And we know how good the government is at introducing new computer systems. I foresee chaos !
So do I
Having worked in Customs and Excise I am not surprised. If I recall correctly the import declaration has up to 54 data elements. Although the submissions will be electronic how much confidence can we have in a new government computer system ? As noted by some comments it may be that everything is “waved through” with checks later at inland clearance depots – but are enough being set up and how are they going to be staffed ? I foresee chaos !
So do I
They’ll have a private Mafia running this in no time!
“Brown envelope and on you go, we’ll tick you as checked.”
Only half joking too.
Ireland has been preparing for a very long time
See this dated Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 19:02:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-busting-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760
Here is an extract.
By any measure, the vertigo inducing ship moored at a specially built quay at the heart of the sprawling port is massive.
It can accommodate more than 600 lorries and is almost twice the size of any ferry currently operating out of Dublin Port. If all the parking lanes on the 235m long boat were laid end to end, it would stretch to almost 8 kilometres, making it the world’s largest short sea roll-on roll-off vessel.
It is hoped its size will allow hundreds of thousands of additional tonnes of freight go to and from the Continent each year, bypassing Britain and the border controls and paperwork that may be inevitable if a hard Brexit becomes a reality.
And I know others were being commissioned and some may be in operation. I have not kept track.
News today which I think is relevant to this discussion.
“Brexit: UK backtracks on full EU border checks amid coronavirus crisis”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53018020
Two points immediately stand out.
1) The ground is being prepared to blame C-19 as a cover up story if Hard Brexit becomes reality on the 1st next year.
2) Looks like a “lite touch” policy which will have all manner of ramifications. For example, will they impose tariffs? If there are no checks or lite touch checks on EU goods coming in, how will they collect tariffs. If they don’t they will have to offer all other countries no tariffs under WTO rules.
It maybe conspiracy thinking, but loosening lockdown now could well lead to that second wave just in time for Brexit no deal on the 1st next year. They will then have their cover story to blame a bigger downturn on the resurgence of the virus. I assume the deaths from this approach will be seen as collateral damage, part of the means to the end.
You are probably right on all this…