I have already suggested that the UK, at least, has been enduring a phoney war with regard to the economic consequences of coronavirus. Furlough, loans to small businesses (in particular), and the initial onset of shock at the spread of the pandemic that led to an extraordinary rate of compliance with lockdown requirements, have all left the economy in a state of limbo. There can be little doubt that this will end over the summer as furlough comes to an end, and Treasury inspired measures to reopen the economy force it to do so far too early.
I have always been of the opinion that the reopening of the economy will be more dangerous than its closure. Businesses left without adequate working capital and facing impossible demands for social distancing both amongst their staff and customer bases, will simply not be able to make profits in the new environment that is being created, and millions of jobs will be lost. This, I think, is a certainty that we have yet to face.
There are, however, two other issues that we have not faced in this phoney war period, which might continue for a few weeks as yet. They also create a third consequence.
The first such issue is the likelihood of a second wave of coronavirus. Even the optimistic epidemiologist I have been talking to, who predicted that we would have negative abnormal deaths over the summer because people in care homes who might have died then would have already done so, is now talking about a second wave, and even a third. A wholly incompetent government that is simultaneously obsessed with central control and privatised delivery, which in this situation is a quite literally fatal combination, has ensured that we are completely ill-equipped to deal with this possibility, which could be at least as bad as the first wave.
There are countries that might avoid this second wave because they have sufficient public health capacity in place to take the necessary steps to protect their population. The UK, with its already disastrous death rate, has nothing like that, at least within England. Instead it has taken every possible step it can to prevent such a system being created, as has been evidenced by the gross mismanagement of the supposed track and trace system, which has been calamitous from the start. This fact, coupled with the Cummings episode, has led to a loss of public faith that now makes the chance of avoiding that second wave close to zero.
The second issue is, of course, Brexit. Talks with the EU are appearing to fail, and very badly, mainly due to intransigence on our side, although I suspect that a little more flexibility from the EU might help. This was, however, almost inevitable from the moment when these talks had to be undertaken at a distance: there are some things that are simply bound to suffer from the lack of face-to-face opportunity, and this was one of them.
Leaving the EU was always going to create significant economic disruption for the UK, which was bound to come with the cost both in the short and long-term. Leaving the EU now, in the circumstances that we are in, Is bound to be much more costly still, precisely because very few businesses will have had the opportunity of the transition period to make the adjustments necessary to manage the new environment, and as a result they will simply collapse under the burden that it creates. On top of the coronavirus impact this is a consequence that is almost impossible to imagine as to scale, but it is certain that it will impose an enormous cost on our society. 2021 is going to be torrid unless the government backs down and applies for a Brexit extension, when it will just become grim instead.
But, as I noted, putting these two issues together creates a third consequential risk. If we simultaneously suffer a second wave of coronavirus that is, like the first, worse than those of our European neighbours, and at the same time lose the advantages of free trade, then I fear that real obstacles to the free movement of food between the EU and this country will be put in place. Given that we import (depending upon the basis of estimate) between 50% and 80% of all our food, most of which arrives through the EU, the consequence of this is almost impossible to imagine.
In March I suggested that food rationing might be necessary as a consequence of coronavirus, thinking that such breakdown of free movement was likely at that time. I was wrong then, but think the chance is greater now. If the government is not planning for food rationing by Christmas then it is grossly negligent, because the need is easy to foresee.
But, knowing this government, the likelihood that what is required is being anticipated is low. As a result the phoney war will continue until it doesn't, and then the consequences might be very grim indeed. Serious food shortages are a very real possibility as a consequence of this disastrous coincidence of circumstances. Supposedly taking back control of our borders might impose a cost that no one could have envisaged. And there will be nobody to blame but the government.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
The sudden drop in the US unemployment rate might give some cause for optimism but here in the UK the government stupidly appears to be intent on reinforcing the coronavirus pandemic with a further job-loss Brexit pandemic. Sadly the unwillingness of many voters to engage in joined-up thinking on the economy makes this a structural issue that is going to take longer to find an antidote for than Corvid-19!
Sigh. Because I limit my trips to shops to twice per week I have been slowly eating my way through the ‘Brexit cupboard’ I had made last year by way of supplementing the fresh stuff. Looks like I’d better get going on making a new one any minute now, before the tribes get back into panic mode. Silver lining – it has been a learning experience of things I would rather not eat ( packets of pasta anyone? ) and have noted what I do enjoy. Also have spotted what takes longer to get back in stock after the shelves were emptied. Next time round it may not be quite such a random cupboard after all. I also know how many loo rolls lasts me a month …
🙂
Me too….
Of course there will be someone else to blame. The Government and its media lackeys have captured all the pieces in the blame game and will ensure that the EU gets the blame for not feeding its betters. Even if not, it suits their long game to discredit democratic government. It won’t be the fault of this government, but government in general. Sure, get rid of Johnson and Cummings, but that won’t change anything.
It would help, enormously
“ Supposedly taking back control of our borders might impose a cost that no one could have envisaged. And there will be nobody to blame but the government.”
Not true. It is the electorate for giving them such an overwhelming majority. You need to ask why this happened and point the finger accordingly
You’re blaming people for believing their ‘oven ready’ lies
Don’t talk nonsense
Blame the liar
‘Blame the liar’
Exactly. And there are loads of them to choose from in this Government – so you will not have to look far!
Don’t fall for it Ben H – people have been badly manipulated, as well as the FPTP system being exploited too.
Ben – I like to think that BREXIT voters have more in common with us than you think. It’s just that their anger and disappointment has been redirected into scape goat stuff like immigration and British exceptionalism.
“Blame the liar”
In normal social interactions we (human beings) are supposedly very astute at spotting cheats and liars. I don’t understand why this fails to translate into the assessment of political actors. Even before the December election campaigning a person would have to be very dull or inattentive not to have noticed Boris Johnson being totally unsuitable to hold public office.
Just listening to him would set off alarm bells – he talks garbage, mumbles, evades questions, avoids interviews, bullshits when he is finally rarely cornered and has to address a question. How is that performance electable? But apparently that is good enough. I can’t quite agree with you here, Richard. The electorate has to carry its share of blame for an appalling gullibility. Whatever happened to healthy scepticism?
The electorate didn’t give the Conservatives a huge majority in the last election. This was instead the result of the UK’s archaic and inherently undemocratic “First Past The Post” electoral system, which continues to ensure that smaller parties play no role in government and that voters are better off voting tactically against what they don’t want than voting honestly for what they do want.
Change in vote share
Party 2017 2019 Change
Conservative Party 42.4% 43.6% +1.2
Labour Party 40.0% 32.1% −7.8
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 11.5% +4.2
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.9% +0.9
Green Party 1.6% 2.7% +1.1
Brexit Party N/A 2.0% +2.0
Other(s) 5.6% 4.1% -1.5
Total % 100.0 100.0 —
Thanks to FPTP, a 1.2% increase in vote share translated to an increase of 58 seats, conferring a parliamentary majority despite only 14 million votes for the Conservatives out of a 67% voter turnout of 32 million from a potential 47.5milion eligible voters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
They only got an “overwhelming majority” because of a defective non democratic voting system and a split opposition. “More” people voted against them.
I fear that the Hard Brexit mob want only that and nothing else. There is no party loyalty and if the Tories are ousted at the next election they wouldn’t give fig. The loonies are in charge of the asylum and will take us all down with them.
Please stop the lie that a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit. 38% of the electorate so voted. I accept that a majority of those who voted voted Brexit but that’s not what you said.
I suggest that a major constitutional change should only happen if most people want it to, that Brexit is a major constitutional change and that most people (i.e. a majority of the electorate) did not vote for it.
It seems very worrying that the government is being driven by the wishes of Cummings as though no one else in the cabinet has a clue what to do. Any sane person would be making contingency plans but that appears to be beyond this bunch of spoilt ex-public schoolboys who have always got what they wanted as long as they stamped their feet enough. Maybe we have to go through this period of being humiliated by our own stupidity before we can face up to the reality. It’s going to be a long painful haul because the right wing media will be blaming everyone but the government. Stock up with food and batten down the hatches. I guess my daughter who manages the local foodbank is going to be very busy this year and next.
If there are people with enough left to donate…
That is, of course, true but quite large donations come in from abroad. On a similar issue, I was working in Norway during the coal miners’ strike of 1984 and in the town that I lived there were collections in the town centre every Saturday morning for the miners. People living outside the UK are not subjected to the constant anti working class filth pumped out by our media. Expats also miss out on that and are more likely to be more sympathetic to the workers. I am talking about 1984 and with the advent of 24 hour rolling global media things might have changed.
The evolving situation you describe has ‘Disaster Capitalism’ written all over it. While only history will tell, I believe both the UK & US administrations are callously facilitating (i.e. exploiting) the current crises – Brexit, Covid-19 and now BLM – as part of their long-term Neo-liberal project. Problem – Reaction – Solution. As Naomi Klein explained: ‘The “shock doctrine” is the political strategy of using large-scale crises to push through policies that systematically deepen inequality, enrich elites, and undercut everyone else. In moments of crisis, people tend to focus on the daily emergencies of surviving that crisis, whatever it is, and tend to put too much trust in those in power. We take our eyes off the ball a little bit in moments of crisis.’
The perps in power don’t even care how incompetent or dissembling they are accused of being, as any public outrage only serves to bolster their long-prepared sociopathic strategy, thus making the upcoming US election the most critical in modern history.
Conspiracy theorist, moi?
Yes
And why not? It’s appropriate
Couple of points I’m not clear about from your article:
– why would (say) Spain interrupt the trade in tomatoes etc to the UK regardless of any deal? Surely this would have serious consequences for Spanish farmers.
– are you suggesting that both the UK & EU would apply tariffs on food imports?
I think Spain my block exports for fear of getting Covid 19 back, yes
And if they come by road the decision will be France’s anyway
And tariffs are for real….
“I think Spain my block exports for fear of getting Covid 19 back, yes”
What Spain sends us tomatoes and oranges and we send them an electronic payment.. how is Spain getting Covid 19 back from us?
People have to cross borders to deliver food
And countries without Covid 19 will lockdown those who do have it
It’s really not hard to work out, is it?
Someone has to drive the trucks. As I understand it, they are exempt from the proposed 14 day quarantine for people arriving in the UK – I guess, because they don’t stop at service stations to buy petrol, stop in cafes to eat or drink, use the toilets, etc.
People outside the UK are less likely to have it right now, so that that is probably OK. But they go back again. And sensible governments will act to prevent importing infection from a higher incidence place – such as the UK – to a lower incidence place – such as France or Spain.
Precisely
That is the risk
My daughter went on a Black Lives Matter rally in a major city yesterday. She took a face mask with her.
We were proud that she went to it with her friends as it indicates interest in these issues but a bit disappointed when she told us that her and her possie ended up in a student’s flat afterwards with others to get out of the rain!!
You can imagine the nature of the conversation that followed………………………..Good Grief!
Thankfully their risk is very low
I just hope they don’t spread it
See the films of the demonstrations and if they are spreaders it’s going to be running like wildfire now….
But I also get their anger, completely
I get the anger and I support the BLM cause, but I do not support the demonstrations at this moment in time.
It is almost certain to result in a huge second wave (R>1 in the NW and very close to 1 elsewhere).
I also can’t help but feel that this has given the government exactly the cover they need. “Oh, many many more CV deaths? Well that’s (100%) the people’s fault. Shouldn’t have gone a-protesting.”
I will add that it’s taken some serious thinking to come to this point of view. I get a real sense that if you don’t support the current demonstrations it’s assumed you don’t support racial equality (or just equality). Unfortunately, the timing is such that you have to choose between demonstrating or isolating to try to reduce the spread of CV.
Also surprised at how blasé people seem to be becoming about CV19. I’d urge people to try and overcome their CV isolation fatigue and continue to take it seriously.
Finally (putting this here because if the information reaches even one more person it’s a win), it seems that CV 19 would be better described as a vascular and respiratory disease. I haven’t seen this widely reported in the news.
From an acquaintance working in a london icu; many Covid patients are presenting with increased blood coagulation. It is worth getting checked out if you think you’ve had it – better safe than sorry.
I will be arranging an appointment tomorrow to have this checked myself.
Some others have thought about this
My son, who like me has almost certainly had it, decided he could not take part because of Covid 19 but was pretty torn by the decision
Sorry, just to add. The risk is inherently high. Regardless of whether demonstrators think they are fit enough to fight CV19 themselves, if they get infected they are then likely acting as a spreader for up to two weeks before possibly becoming symptomatic.
I’m assuming that the majority won’t isolate for two weeks after demonstrating which means that there is the very real possibility that CV could spread to anyone and anywhere, with disastrous consequences.
If you’ll excuse the bad language – what was “just” a shitshow is now a full blown clusterfuck. The genie’s out of the bottle and lockdown is now well and truly over.
Maybe I have my priorities wrong, but dealing with the current epidemic feels like the top priority.
I will also add that I place the vast majority of blame at the governments feet. Why we don’t have a working track and trace system, and thus a realistic way out, is beyond me.
I think you are right
It demonstrates the sheer scale of the anger that this happened
Thank you for understanding my take on this.
The level of anger is something I hadn’t considered – good point.
There is a cynical part of me that suspects many people still vastly underestimate how bad Covid can be.
I hope I’m wrong
I hope my expectation of many more excess deaths is wrong.
I hope the demonstrations are ultimately worth it
We can only hope
They will not have helped on Covid 19, for sure
Tim Langs recent book “Feeding Britain our food problems and how to fix them” is an appropriate read at this time. There is effectively no adequate food store within the UK. Our food store is in effect the trucks on our motorways. The outlook of the UK government seems to be that Tesco will take care of everything!
And I can tell you, Tim is very worried about that
You’ve got it the wrong way round Richard .. The EU is talking about tariffs upon our exports of food to them. Something that would increase the supply of food domestically in the UK of course. Whether we put tariffs upon food imported into the UK is something that we now get to decide. A logical thing to do being not to have any such tariffs but who knows
Tariffs are almost incidental here: whether there is food to import will be the issue
Why not read my argument instead of making another one up?
The U.K. is set up with a containerised food delivery system that does not require lorry drivers to cross borders. If growers want to export food to the U.K. they will be able to without risk of spreading the virus. If that is insufficient our diet will have to change but adaptable people won’t starve.
Politely, I trust those who know about this and they would very strongly disagree with you
[…] would also add something else. This morning I mentioned that we are now in the next stage of a phoney war and that we may well be in a lull before a storm. I mentioned the reasons why this storm might […]
Peter May of Progressive Pulse, who knows a thing or two about the food business, has an interesting piece on the likely consequences of no deal on food supplies. Basically, the message is “you ain’t seen nothing yet.” His link to The Grocer is worth following too. http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/will-dim-and-dom-manage-to-pull-it-off
How delightfully pessimistic/ realistic. I think these risks are real. We are headed for a rough time. It feels like there’s nothing anyone can do but thanks for trying.
There is ample we can do
We could have an economic policy targeted at full employment and sustainability
We just have to realise that money is not an issue
In an ideal sense, yes, “we” can do what we like with systems “we” invented. But what percentage of the British public would have to accept these ideas to make the ruling class decide to use them for the greater good?
At present there is no mechanism whatsoever in place to even nudge, let alone compel, the people with tangible power to change their thoughts or actions.
The challenge is that, how do “we” infect the population with a more accurate view of the reality that underlies our economic mechanisms and how do we then force some sort of change to occur that will benefit the greater good?
The Labour party is not an acceptable answer. And I suspect a large number of your readers would agree.
So what do we actually do?
I do not agree that the Labour Party is not an acceptable answer
Political overthrow is not likely and undesirable and so working through political parties is what has to be done
Ultimately I always go back to what a wise man told me when I was a teenager
He said if I wanted to change the world I should not be a politician but should be a poet
And if not a poet then a philosopher
And if not a philosopher then at least a thinker
And a writer
Because he said all politicians follow other people’s ideas
So to change the world create the idea that it is possible to do so
That is what matters
I still think he was right
[…] these factors into account my forecast, made yesterday, that we might suffer severe disruption to food supply chains after Brexit seems a little […]
“There will be nobody to blame but the government”.
Yet it seems that as many as 27% of the population still thinks Johnson’s Mafia is doing a good job, according to a recent poll.
I wonder how this Mafia can spin it further in order to blame the EU or whatever they find to explain the coming crises.
Together with their press barons, surely they can concoct something.
As for the second wave of Covid-19, and maybe the third, when they come, they will be as poorly managed as the first, because unlike in some countries I know, the experience England has had doesn’t seem to have taught the leadership much in terms of logistics, and the time meant for preparing has mostly been wasted once again.
If anyone reading this blog lives in a fairly rural and pro-active county, they might find inspiration in our local initiatives here in Ceredigion. (article in WaslesOnline dated 6/6/20 “The area of Wales that missed coronavirus-and the simple system it set up”.)
The Health board and the County Council collaborated from the very beginning, before lockdown was called. And when it came (a week before England) they were prepared, having got their lead from South East Asia, not Westminster.
As a result, we’ve been spared the worst so far. Now preparing for the influx of tourists from England and other parts of Wales which have been worst affected, then in September, for the arrival of thousands of students from all over.
The Testing/tracing/isolating is not done by private firms, we’re using the already competent and well trained staff from both the county and the health board, also training retired GPs, nurses and other health and social care workers. They know the area very well, the infrastructures, and the local contexts. They are trusted, so people comply very well.
Centralised (Senedd) measures only applied to the lockdown process and rules.
The mood here is not to trust what’s happening over the border. I suspect the same is true in Scotland.
This crisis will have done a huge amount to discredit Westminster further.
So after Brexit, after covid-19, at the same time as the economic depression looming, there will be an existential crisis for the Union.
The ruling Mafia may have given up by then?
Good for Wales
I fear I have a son intending to invade you as a student come September…
He’ll be most welcome !
What will he be studying? Several excellent Departments here, and I know the ‘student experience’ is very well rated too. He’ll be well looked after by the uni and the community.
Tell him to wash his hands though
He’s lucky to be allowed out of England, seeing as it has now unilaterally decided to cap the numbers of English students allowed to study in Wales, Scotland and NI, from 2021.
No end to this onslaught on freedom of movement and devolution.
Another fight on our hands, which our very able (English) vice-chancellor Elizabeth Treasure is well able to lead.
Watch this space.
Business and tourism, because he’s a practical guy
And never intends leaving Wales: I am quite sure he’s moving for good
Whi is why he has every intention of learning the language
Dear Richard,
Your work with ideas is far more likely to create change than anything a politician might do. I agree with you on that wholeheartedly.