I wrote this yesterday, sending it to people I met during the week:
I apologise for having to write in this way I think it only fair to advise you that I think I might have coronavirus. I have met you in the last few days and that means I could have infected you.I first thought I might be getting a cold on Friday. Yesterday it felt a bit flu like, and I thought some cold symptoms were developing. Today those symptoms seem to have disappeared, but the flu like symptoms remain. I feel decidedly under the weather.Of course, this may be ordinary flu. In particular, I am not coughing. That, I think, suggests his may be a standard virus. Without testing, which is not available due to government policy, I do not know. But I am self isolating now and in practice have been (almost by accident) since Friday. To be honest, I'm not moving far from bed.I stress, I cannot say I have got coronavirus. I am working on the assumption that might be the case, and I thought you should know.I hope you don't get this.On the other hand, if you do, I also hope that it is no worse than what I have. I would much rather not feel as I do, but I do not feel threatened by it. It's just like a pretty bad cold right now, but without the nose and throat bits.
So, I am self isolating.
And this morning it's much the same. And still no sign of a cold.
So do I have coronavirus? Let me be honest, and say I do not know.
All I know is I have a flu type illness that is not going the way these things always usually do with me.
But that, I suggest, does indicate the failure of government policy. After all, it would be really useful to know if I have got coronavirus. I would definitely know what was required now, instead of guessing. And they'd know too. And so would those with whom I have had contact. And I'd also know that if there is such a thing as immunity that I might have it.
But right now, I don't know, the people I know don't know and the government doesn't know, so they have no idea whether or not the stats they issue are in any way useful, or not.
Moan over. I might go back to bed....
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Hope it isn’t, Richard, but if it is, I wish you a speedy recovery.
My husband and I are self-isolating for a week, as a young friend, whom we met last Wednesday, was sneezing, and has since tested positive for the virus. He’d returned from Italy, where he was visiting family members, just before their full clamp-down.
But he’s at a university, and they have facilities for testing. What about the rest of us?
No testing…
[…] PS Written yesterday: moderation will happen when I am awake. […]
The chances of you having the virus are remote quite now but what the current situation demonstrates that we are a society that can only thrive on cooperation. The pursuit of individualism, which is the neo-liberal model, has lost. We have to consider others as our own individual survival depends on their contribution, ‘no man is an island’ as the saying goes and money is just the oil that ‘greases the wheels’ to enable resources to meet demand.
The justification for austerity that there ‘is no money’ has disappeared in the current health situation which quite clearly demonstrates it was a nonsense from its inception. It has led to over 120,000 premature deaths which is nothing short of a scandal.
Okay, this government is doing its best to minimise the impact of the Covid-19 virus but its shameful record in running the economy for the last ten years should never, ever, be forgotten.
Having spent quite a lot of last week in tube trains I’m nit quite sure my chances are remote
But I agree with the rest….
[…] now I am too tired to deal with the issue….but maybe later on his morning I will return to it. The need for the most […]
Get well soon Richard.
Get well soon. We need, more than ever at this time, sane, probing voices to hold power to account, to demand they explain themselves and that they publish the advice on which they are acting, to explain the science that justifies the UK being used “as guinea pigs by a callous government”.
Seconded. With the need for urgent government intervention to prevent both a national health emergency , and an economic disaster, but with a government composed of the lowest quality of politicians I’ve ever known, we need people like you more than ever Richard.
Look after yourself, and get well soon (hopefully).
All the best Richard. Hope you get better and your family keep well.
Wishing you a speedy recovery. And do give yourself the time and space to recover. It’s the not knowing that eats in to one’s resilience.
Get well soon, Richard, and please keep writing. What you have said to date has been useful and important. You seem to be one of the few people who has a proper understanding of impact, and while this might conflict with the current government’s ideas, it is very useful and helpful to us at our local level.
Cheers, Nick
Thanks
Richard get well. You are a beacon of light in very dark days.
Get well soon Richard!
Whatever it may be, get well and get well soon.
Craig
I hope you do have it Richard. And that you gain immunity without being terribly ill or worse.
We need your voice to be strong and healthy!
Thanks
Richard, We need you! How dare you get virus! Get well soon. I don’t know if this will cheer you or not.
A coronavirus has a very simple aim in life. It wants to infect a cell, to create as many new copies of itself as possible, these copies to infect other cells, and to be transmitted to as many people as possible. To achieve its aim, the virus has dispensed with all surplus baggage, including the ability to correct mistakes while copying. This is not a problem, the virus will make enough good copies to make sure it transmits, and a small proportion of the mistakes (aka mutations) it makes will give changes that make the virus better at its job.
Because the first cases of coronavirus are almost identical genetically, we know that the outbreak started from a jump to a single human (probably originally from a bat). The high rate of mutation means that changes began to occur almost immediately. Thus it seems possible to tell by which route a virus reached the UK, for instance, via Italy.
The key point.
It is not in the interests of a virus to be too lethal. The ideal victim should be well enough to walk round and infect as many other people as possible. There is selective pressure for a virus to become less lethal.
I suggest that we need to start to think of COVID-19, not as single virus, but a range of closely related viruses, that may have subtly different properties.
Which raises three questions to which I don’t know the answer:
1) Is the reason that some carriers are superspreaders, not because the person is different, but because they have a different variant of coronavirus? If so, will such virus variants come to predominate? Are they likely to be less lethal?
2) Are hospital staff at increased risk of dying, compared to members of the general population of similar age and fitness? This would be because they were exposed to the most lethal end of a coronavirus spectrum.
3) If lockdown reduces transmission of the virus, will it strengthen selection for those variants that transmit most effectively? Are these variants likely to be less lethal? If so, early and prolonged lockdown could have an unexpected bonus. It could select for a less lethal form of the virus.
Warning. Although I studied mutation most of my working life, I can’t guarantee any of this. I am not a virologist and I am too long retired.
Get well soon, Richard.
If this is any comfort, it is possible that you have the coronavirus, but the chances are still on the low side. (30 or so deaths suggests up to 3,000 cases two weeks ago, doubling every 3 days, so there might be up to a few hundred thousand cases in the wild now. In a population of 60 million, that is still less one person in a hundred or two.)
I think those who can will all be working from home by the end of next week, possibly this week, and the schools are unlikely to resume after the Easter break. Many older people are already self-isolating. Once everyone has their stocks of tinned foods and loo paper, the shops should calm down a little. And then we wait.
I entirely agree, except for the fact that I spent a lot of time doing the exact opposite of social isolation last week
Get well soon, Richard. Hopefully, as you say, it’s just a dose of regular ‘flu’ which, if you don’t have a fever and a persistent dry cough, might possibly be the case. In any event, get some quality bed-rest and put the blog on a back-burner … at least for a couple of hours! Challenging times, for sure. Maybe it’s the long overdue wake-up call. Or not. Anyhow, take good care of yourself and drink coffee 🙂
Feverish, tick
Still no coughing
Coffee, tick
The current Tory Party is now an insane cult. Not only does it require a huge sacrifice of parts of the economy to achieve Brexit it now requires a huge sacrifice of individuals (upto half a million deaths) to deal with the coronavirus:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
Get well soon Richard and look after yourself, hope your stock of paracetamol lasts (and be careful not to take too much).
I’ve been self isolating for over a week, sort of, & have found the ever changing advice confusing – the start of last week it was only if you’d been in contact with a known sufferer that you needed to stay at home, by the end of the week it was if you have any new cough you should self isolate for 7 days,,, having had a bad dry cough, and sore throat, though not feeling that poorly I stayed off work anyway (luckily, given the later advice).
A study in Germany seems to indicate that it’s the early stages of Covid-19 that are the most infectious, and may not be after symptoms stop (even if tested positive for the virus), but nothing is certain of course.
Anyway, I started to feel better last Friday, and started a deep clean – then by Sunday started getting a sore throat and more of a cough again, and fairly stuffed up. Having read the new NHS advice this morning (you don’t get tested right enough unless you are near hospitalisation) they say not to shake out dirty washing because it might spray out the virus – so, I’m thinking the frantic cleaning might have reinfected me (kicking up dust, though I try to avoid that, likely hasn’t helped). They are putting a 72-hour time that dirty washing is okay after. Anyway, I’m going to keep cleaning and avoid coughing (open lots of windows too) on anything. I’ve deployed disposable gloves and dettol-soaked cloths and much hot soapy water.
It costs a fortune being ill!
So, just in case it is Covid-19 Richard, do keep all your washing separate or bag it for 3 days!
Noted
I hope you get well soon.
At least you have your readers to keep you company on your blog.
Thanks Ken
And to all I others who have passed on good wishes
I’ve just slept the entire morning – for me a quite exceptional experience but clearly what I needed
Very best wishes Richard. You make a wise decision.
Worrying times for all & I fear the UK govt is not yet doing all it should be doing.
I’m waiting to go into hospital on Friday – thankfully in France – for a (second & important) operation. As of now, still going ahead (in a service not suseptible to being requistioned for corona virus victims).
Good luck for the op
IU Hoppe all goes well
Good grief! Good luck.
Get well soon, Richard. You and we will get through this
Hope that it is a “passing” virus, and clears up. Not knowing is VERY concerning with all studies showing that the older one is the greater the need for reassurance. It is shaming that a G7 economy has not got the testing facilities of Panama, where I am at the moment. Here in a small regional centre they have just instituted phone in (nurse comes out and tests) and drop in at the state clinic (back door access). It keeps coming back to learning from the past (Richard North’s blog this morning is a classic) and having spare capacity in the system. This macro stuff is of course no value to the smitten individual, and all I can do is again wish you a speedy recovery.
In Ireland you call the GP. GP orders test online. In Netherlands GP surgeries are filling with coughing & sneezing people. Doctors will be positive within 2 weeks if they don’t sort this out.
Best wishes for speedy recovery & hope you don’t get reinfected.
I’m in NL too and their attitude is not that far off UK in terms of testing. I’ve been sick since a week last Sunday. Tried getting a test twice, given up now.
Thing is – if I do have it now and may be immune shortly, I could be out and about doing useful stuff. People with immunity are going to be in short supply! But they aren’t even tracking!
That’s the reason why I want to know
You feeling ok?
On the mend I think, generally feel much better, but still congested, chesty and a bit short of breath if I do too much.
Wishing you a speedy recovery
You too
Thanks
Take care, Richard and get well soon.
John
Get well soon Richard.
In an odd way your situation has calmed me down a little — it seems bad (and I wish you a very speedy recovery with no complications), but not anywhere near as bad as the panic-mode descriptions suggest.
John Beattie on Radio Scotland said he’d interviewed someone who had recovered and who had been tested whose symptoms soundEd exactly like mine
The implication is for most for most fit people who are not overexposed (medics) this will be uncomfortable but that’s it. I hope.
And there will be exceptions, of course. And without testing I will not know if I have it.
Good to know. If only it were possible to get tested…
Also, to reiterate, get well soon and I wish you a speedy and mild (?) recovery 🙂
(Couldn’t think of better phraseology)
Works for me….
Feeling a bit better this afternoon – but that’s been my pattern so far
I’m sorry to learn that you’re ill, and I hope you have a speedy recovery.
I’ve been reading your articles for 2-3 years now. As an engineer, not an economist, I particularly appreciate the way many of your posts relate economics to life in the “real world”, for want of a better phrase. Thank you very much for doing it.
Thanks
I still can’t work out what drives me in this … but it’s good to know it’s appreciated
[…] pre-record was ten minutes, which given how I feel was some […]
Just to send my best wishes – take care and get well soon, from whatever it is.
And add my appreciation of your blog, thanks.
Thanks
Huge best wishes – flu or whatever. Just play it canny and get well.
Heading for sleep very soon…..
I have found that I have had flu like symptoms on and off after having my flu jab in October last year.
I recently was asked to work from home because my daughter was asked to stay at home since a parent of a friend had come down with something (not tested of course). But I have not developed a high temperature or a cough. ‘Back at work today.
My employer does not know what to do. My rugby club is considering cancelling the mini festival I run.
It’s slo-mo chaos.
‘Hearing stories from supermarket runs – customers taking all of particular items leaving none for others ; people taking items out of other’s trollies if the shelves are empty.
What a country Maggie and David and Theresa and Boris and Farage hath maketh!
Stay well Richard.
Rationing is the answer…
It’s upsetting not to know for sure, isn’t it? We have all received helpful news on how to prevent catching the virus, but not a lot about what to do if we get, or think we have got, it. What to expect of the disease itself …the progression, etc. How long it takes before you can be sure you have fully recovered. And even to know if what you’ve got IS the virus, or just ‘normal’ flu.
There are a few interviews out there, with people who have had Covid-19 and who have recovered from it. It’s interesting that none of these people seem to have experienced it in exactly the same way. The one thing that seems to be universal, though, is that it happens in stages. You feel better, then you feel worse, then better, etc. Hard to know when you’re 100% again.
And does recovery confer immunity? Nobody knows for sure. And if you’re immune, can you still pass it on to others? Nobody is saying, although I assume that if your hands touch the virus and pick it up, you can certainly pass it on, even if it doesn’t attack you again.
Aaargh. These are difficult , scary and uncertain times. But I wish you all the best, Richard. You are a valued human being. Lots of us regard you with a great deal of respect. Take care of yourself, rest as much as possible.
All I can do is wish you good luck and a speedy recovery from whatever it is. Like many, I have learnt a good deal from you, thank you, and we all need you to keep going. God bless, you’ll be in my prayers.
Thanks Jim
Feeling better this morning, I think.
But I am breaking my usual habit. I am breakfasting before blogging and will be taking my time.
Hope you are feeling better this morning.
Get well soon.
Bob
It feels like I am better this morning
I’ll be sure after tea and breakfast…..
go steady! i thought i was feeling a lot better yesterday and was more active, but this morning i’m paying the price. drained! had viral fatigue once years ago and was in bed for about 3 weeks for 16 hours a day.
I am back in bed now …. drained by this morning’s efforts and some work calls….
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-testing-uk
A report from the frontline of developing and supplying capable and reliable sampling and testing for Covid-19.
Get well soon Richard, tested or not.
Wishing you a speedy recovery, whatever it is.
I’m fairly sure mine (and my husband’s) flu is covid 19 as I had to send in the paramedics for my son on Friday. They didn’t test him but they said it was a classic case.
Apart from a high temperature and a reluctance to move from the bed or sofa unless absolutely necessary for the first two days, the abiding impression is moments of exhaustion interspersed with feeling fine. During a couple of these, I snuck out for a long walk (keeping well away from humanity). On both occasions I suffered a relapse afterwards. So don’t be tempted!
This is the 7th day since the onset and according to some government guidelines, if I don’t have a temperature, I should be good to go. I don’t feel good to go at all.
The only other symptoms of note are a mouth that feels like the bottom of a budgie’s cage – and tastes not far off – coupled with (understandingly), a reluctance to eat anything. I’ve lost 3 kg so far.
I hope this is helpful.
I recognise most of that….but feeling better this morning
I am also aware that this may not last – I have had several warnings of false recoveries when things are not really better
Sorry, I forgot the cough. My husband’s is dry and mine isn’t. Both have been constant.
And the pain when I move my eyes.
You have something worse than me
But I am told that it is possible to have this cough free
There are at least two strains….
This may be why recurrence appears possible
Get well…..
All the best for a speedy recovery Richard. The fact that you don’t cough is a very positive one, but you absolutely did the right thing.
I came back from a few days in London (train, tube, Westminster meetings…) and as I had a dry cough when I got home, so I’m doing the same.
Still walk the dog on empty beaches though…but no testing, so no socialising and lots of distancing, disposable gloves when I have to go for food in shops.
Take care.
Good luck
Explaining this to the dog is hard
He’s not getting walks for two weeks – although I think he may have to go to a friend from today – it’s not fair on him
Poor thing. Grant Shapps did say yesterday that you could walk your dog if in self-isolation, but perhaps he meant if you weren’t sick, though he didn’t say that specifically. Good luck to you and your four-legged friend anyway.
And you trust Grant Shapps? 🙂
Hector (the dog) doesn’t….
Hope you recover soon Richard.
Think I’m pretty much in the same boat – except exposed to less folk than you last week. Self-isolating, but no idea if I have the virus. No temperature.
No idea how we are going to isolate daughter and b’friend whose jobs cratered in France yesterday. Hoping to make it across Franco / Swiss border before midday today – and then to UK if flights running and / or Eurostar operating……….must be thousands of similar stories going on………
I had a temperature…definitely feverish for 2+ days
That seemed to go late last night
Now feeling quite a lot better
Good luck
[…] economic disruption. In the very short term whilst we try to halt the spread of coronavirus (which was already too late for me) there are going to be massive supply-side shocks within he economy: temporary closing of […]
Get well soon Richard! Sending all our best, love Howard, Mel & Miriam
Thanks Howard
Richard
best wishes and a speedy recovery.
Thanks Sean
It hasn’t stopped me blogging so far, although I can already feel the energy draining this morning
Keep safe and as healthy as you can.
Thank you for all your thoughts and words. Must be difficult being proved right by events yet again!
Best wishes, Jake
Get well soon.
As a diabetic I now find myself in a similar situation.
Get well soon Richard.
Thanks
Get well, Richard, and thanks for carrying on writing!
Whether you have it now, or get later, I hope you have others who can shop for you etc…
The really good thing is that where I am in East London – an area of many short term let’s, so many do not know each other, and of many nationalities – groups online have started up and we are offering help to each other there. As, also, neighbours close by are. This is great!
Community spirit is around 🙂
I have had quite a number of offers of help….we’ll be fine
I do hope that this does make us rethink communities
Best wishes for a speedy recovery and thanks for the terrific blogs, as ever.
Andrew Sayer
Thanks
Hi Richard,
Iam sure that I speak on behalf of all Yes supporters in Scotland when I wish you a full and speedy recovery.
Best wishes,
Jim Davidson.
Thanks Jim
I think I’m better today – but not over it as yet
Yes Jim, you spoke for me, thanks. It’s been interesting seeing the different symptoms people are having. Maybe my raised temperature and sneezing is a mild form of the virus. I did a very intensive circuits class on Monday morning, that may account for the sore muscles!.
Get well soon Richard.
Thanks
I’m feeling better on day 6…
Get well soon Richard.
I am one of the many people I am sure that are being educated by your interesting articles. Thank you.
Thanks Rita
Feeling knackered and very angry this evening…bed soon…