To those of a certain age (my age, for example) the idea that Sinn Fein might top a poll in Ireland is hard to believe. But they might. And if they don't, they're very close.
I was brought up with the Troubles. And with a name like mine it was real, even in East Anglia. Irish racism remains a reality that many in my extended family are all too aware of. And The Troubles clearly played a part in that, just as much as they were also about trying to address that very issue in a way that only fuelled the problem for many, and which had violent repercussions few had sympathy with.
It's easy to recall the attempt of the UK government to silence Sinn Fein.
And I all too aware that many still feel revulsion at its old leadership. That's apparent in Ireland now.
But, Sinn Fein has moved on.
And Ireland has moved on.
Those under 40 there have very definitely moved on, and supply much of Sinn Fein's support.
And let's be clear. This is not really about reunification, although it is for some. And it is definitely not about Brexit. This is about getting rid of the soft conservatism that has dominated Ireland for a century and in very many ways done it few favours, including making it a tax haven state now. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have both failed Ireland in their own ways. The rise of Sinn Fein is a classic protest vote, but it's also a vote for the left that has never fully developed in Ireland.
I am not providing commentary on Irish politics as such by saying this. What I am saying is something else. And that is that the left is not dead. It is struggling, on occasion. But to dismiss it is wrong. Sinn Fein is riding that despite its own baggage. And that is worth noting, both because of that support, and the fact that baggage can be left behind.
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Not everyone in Sinn Fein has moved on, despite apparent attempts by more aware party staff to get them to stop singing.
Sinn Féin’s Dessie Ellis dismisses criticism of joining rebel sing-song (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-dessie-ellis-dismisses-criticism-of-joining-rebel-sing-song-1.4167268
Though I’m not a supporter, it will be difficult to argue logically that they shouldn’t at least be in discussions about a new government given that they are in government in Northern Ireland.
I am not a supporter
I noted the issue
Ralph Cunningham says:
“Not everyone in Sinn Fein has moved on, …”
Of course they haven’t !…. any more than some members and supporters of the Conservative and Unionist Party in the UK have not moved on from delusions of God-given entitled superiority and Empire domination. These things take time.
“…This is not really about reunification,…”
My understanding (which may of course be wrong) is that the Good Friday Agreement, allows the NI to have a referendum on rejoining the rest of Ireland, but I would have thought there might be some trepidation concerning acceptance of the Six Counties back into the fold as it were. Do the Irish get a choice in the matter is it all down to NI to decide ?
On a different tack. Presumably Ireland’s low corporation tax regime which is inflating their GDP figures allows the government to spend more without breaching the EU guideline restrictions. (?) In which case I can well understand why a leftish party is gaining strong support. There should be little excuse for government not sharing the (temporary?) largesse, or at least latitude, fairly across the social spectrum, yet reportedly there is fairly abject financial misery at the bottom of the heap these days.
Irish voters are perhaps a little more savvy than some of their English counterparts (?) Voter participation at below 63% doesn’t look good though. I don’t understand why so many of us don’t make the tiny effort required to vote when we have the opportunity. 🙁
Irish reunification would require two referendums in favour, one north and one south of the border. See the Good Friday Agreement and article 3 of the Irish constitution, as amended in 1999.
As you say, there are good reasons why the south could be reluctant to accept the north back, not just economic, also social and political. But I suspect a majority would vote for it nonetheless. And I think the current UK Conservative and Unionist government would wish them luck as we waved them goodbye.
Populist illiberal economic nationalism isn’t found exclusively on the right. Sinn Féin is a perfect example of an opportunistic, psuedo-left-wing variant. (Corbynism may be seen as another variant – though adhering more resolutely to out-dated ideology.) Voters in Ireland will elect representatives of at least seven other left-wing factional variations. It’s classic Brendan Behan – even if he was taking about the Republican movement: the first item on the agenda of any political organisation in Ireland is the Split.
It would be highly unusual if Ireland were to avoid contracting its own unique strain of this virus; and it hasn’t. But the virus only takes hold and strengthens when social and economic conditions are so dire for so many voters. Ireland has a health crisis, a housing crisis and a cost of living crisis. An OECD report on health provision last November shows that Irish public spending on health is more than sufficient to fund a single provider, free at point of use health service of a better quality than the British NHS. But what have they got? A two-tier inefficient, ineffective service.
Eurostat data on relative price levels show that (1) the overall cost of living is 25%, (2) the cost of housing, water and household energy is 55% and (3) the cost of consumer services is 35% above the corresponding Euro Area (EA) averages.
This is a hefty kick up the back-side of Official Ireland by the hundreds of thousands of voters who have been excluded from the prosperity and comfort the well-heeled, pampered denizens of Official Ireland have cornered for themselves. The only surprise is that it’s been so long in coming. And it is truly unfortunate (and a damning indictment of the selfish egotism, factionalism and sectarianism of the left in Ireland) that Sinn Féin has emerged as the only vehicle these voters felt was capable of politically communicating their deep disgust and anger.
I don’t blame the voters. But I fear they may live to regret this.
Why will they regret this?
You don’t actually say so
“Corbynism may be seen as another variant”
I love the idea that Corbynism is a thing.
I’m looking forward to political historians explaining how somebody who never got off the opposition benches had an ‘ism’ credited to him.
Is that a first ?
He also got Corbynomics
But he didn’t create that….
Even if it manages to assemble the various factions, groupuscules and individuals elected on vaguely left-wing platforms plus the Greens (who are mainly former Labour supporters who can afford to worry about the end of the world), Sinn Féin (SF) will still fall well short of a majority. To govern it would need a confidence and supply agreement from Fianna Fáil (FF) — and that is probably out of the question. The only sustainable alternative is a Fianna Fáil-led coalition with SF, and the FF leader is edging slowly towards this option — even though he has previously ruled it out categorically on many occasions. But the lust for power is strong.
However, Official Ireland which is made up of the entire government apparatus, state agencies, state-owned enterprises, multitudes of quangos, state-sponsored voluntary bodies, the mainstream media, academia, the upper echelons of the trades unions, large firms, business associations and the professions remains formidable and has a visceral detestation of SF. Official Ireland has been built up and protected by FF, Fine Gael and Labour over the last 60 years. It will fight tooth and nail to protect its privileges and the continued capture of the economics rents that contribute so much to the housing, health and cost of living crises.
FF will continue to defend Official Ireland and SF is probably astute enough to know that it won’t be able to push it back very much. As a result, there will be no concerted effort to tackle the roots of these crises and SF’s voters will be very disappointed. As an alternative SF is proposing higher spending, higher taxation and higher wages, but this is likely to intensify and amplify the crises. Ireland doesn’t issue its own currency, is locked in to the EMS and, on fiscal and monetary matters, is ultimately governed by Germany’s fixation on fiscal restraint. So it will be stymied on this front if in government with FF. To shore up its support, SF will likely play the Green card and push for constitutional arrangements to facilitate union with Northern Ireland. And then the wheels will come off.
That’s why I speak of voter regret.
I recognise your description fo official Ireland
But I do not believe these things are immovable, at all
I agree they’re not immovable, but dismantling 60 years’ worth of aggrandisement will require concerted effort. And Official Ireland is also made up, to a great extent, of the broad public sector which contains mostly decent, honourable people who will have to be brought on board. But, collectively, they see SF as the enemy.
I can’t dispute that
Paul Hunt says:
“Official Ireland has been built up and protected by FF, Fine Gael and Labour over the last 60 years….”
Well that might explain why Labour has just had a hammering. Reminiscent of Scotland where Labour has really messed up by rubbing shoulders a little too enthusiastically with conservatives. (?)
Voters who want left of centre know there are better alternatives and if you want conservative you might aswell vote for the real thing.
Lesser-English Labour need to find a place in the spectrum. The new leader will have some serious work to do or risk going the same way and sliding into irrelevance. Only FPTP and buggins turn has kept them afloat thus far.
@Andy Crow,
“Lesser-English Labour”? Who on earth are they? Former Labour voters in Scotland and Wales and SDLP voters in Northern Ireland? Or is it left-of-centre voters in England who wish to downplay the fact that the vast majority of voters in the UK live in England? Or is it something else entirely?
As for Labour in Ireland, they got their deserved hammering in 2016. They went in to coalition with the Green Tories (Fine Gael) in 2011 having won 37 out of 166 seats and swallowed the medicine prescribed by the Troika and Frankfurt. FG went in with 76 seats and came out with 50; Labour dropped to 7. So Labour dropped only one this time. They got the 37 in 2011 almost by default because voters wanted to give Fianna Fáil and the Greens a thorough kicking. Previously there had been a reverse take over of Labour by a modified version of the political wing of the Official IRA (as opposed to Sinn Féin, the political wing of the breakaway Provisional IRA). That virus has now been largely excised, but not without splitting Labour so that there are now also 6 Social Democrat TDs.
Two features of the election outcome are relevant. The first is that it is probably the most proportionate result in a century. The percentage of seats won by most parties is very close to the percentage of first preference votes they won. Normally the big parties earn a seat bonus, but not this time. So all voters can be content that the outcome reflects their preferences.
The second is that in terms of seats, the new Dáil will be split down the middle – and it reflects the split in the country between Official Ireland and its supporters and those whom Official Ireland has marginalised, excluded and suppressed. FF and FG have 73 between them and SF with all the left wing variants plus the Greens should be able to muster 73. That leaves 14 independents who mostly come from the FF or FG gene-pool.
It’s hard to see how any sort of stable government will emerge from this.
Paul Hunt says:
“Lesser-English Labour”? Who on earth are they? [ blah…blah……] Or is it something else entirely?
Yes. Something else entirely:
What there will be left-standing under the Labour Party banner in what is left-standing of the UK. I think this will be reasonably described ‘Lesser England’ and it’s where Brexit is taking us whether we like it or not. What that (Lesser-)English Labour Party looks like will inevitably depend very greatly on who wins the current leadership contest.
@ Paul Hunt does a good job at explaining the complexities and recent history of the Irish left. The election is a shift leftwards. The Fianna Fail/Fine Gael share of the vote is now under 45% compared to almost 70% in 2007.
On his 2 points, the seat result was more proportional because Sinn Fein decided not to run 2nd candidates in a lot of seats after a poor set of results in the Irish local/EU Parliament elections last year. So they planned a defensive strategy (partly similar to UK Labour in 2017).
As to the prospects for a new Government, Fine Gael have walked off the pitch, but will still be the sitting tenants until a new administration is formed. I imagine that Sinn Fein will try and form a left-wing Government, but this will probably fail because they don’t have the numbers, and some of those such as the Trotskyist-style People Before Profit may walk away anyway.
When that fails, that gives Sinn Fein cover to turn to Fianna Fail. Mr Martin probably doesn’t want to be the first leader of his Party not to be Taoiseach.
Much as Mary Lou McDonald and Sinn Fein would love the howls of anguish from the English Right (and Trump!) at the prospect of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach, the markets and their EU partners are a different matter.
If you’re on the Left and you’re not addicted to Opposition, the combination of the most likely/optimistic outcome on the current numbers is Michael Martin as head of a Government of FF/SF plus 1 Left wing party, with a small majority of left wing Ministers on a Left of Centre Programme.
@David Jackson,
Thank you for the kind words. I was reluctant to get too far in to the intricacies of the single transferrable vote (STV) in multi-seat constituencies.
I broadly agree with your assessment. The Dáil won’t sit until the 20th and there’ll be a lot of posturing between now and then. Both FF and FG will let SF seek to assemble its government of the left and fail. The sensible thing for the various non-SF left-wing/green parties, groupuscules and individuals would be to form an informal bloc. They could have up to 35 TDs. If they individually try to play it on their own they’ll be eaten alive sooner or later. But the integrity of the personal and inter-factional doctrinal disputes surpasses any practical or pragmatic concerns.
So it looks like FF + SF + one or two of the other groupuscules. There was a time when FF described itself as a “slightly constitutional party” and a party for “the men of no property”. SF has captured that mantle in the modern era.
But Official Ireland is still in a state of shock. FF will have to work hard to reassure them that they can manage SF in close-quarter engagement in government. However, the vast majority of Irish voters (similar to most other voters on these islands) have a long-standing, deep and abiding commitment to the democratic process. They are highly effective at house-training potentially unruly public representatives.
I’ve known for a long time that the increasingly dire social and economic conditions being experienced by so many voters (and the blatant contrast with the cushy existence of Official Ireland) was driving a disgust and anger that would be communicated eventually via the ballot box, but I have been taken aback by such a comprehensive, targetted and clinical use of the ballot box.
Compelling the sitting Taoiseach and the aspiring Taoiseach to wait to be elected on the 5th and 6th counts in their respective constituencies while SF surpluses and the votes of eliminated candidates were being distributed is a humiliation only Irish voters can truly savour.