Martin Wolf has written an article in the FT suggesting that the best outcome of the general election will be a hung parliament.
His reasoning is pretty simple. He dislikes English nationalists. And he dislikes socialists. He would wish neither in power. The consequence is his desire to have the ‘middle' hold sway over either. He ignores that this middle includes, come what may, a hefty chunk of SNP seats, and I suspect he is little more enthusiastic there either. He might as will have said ‘Bring back Nick Clegg'.
But although I disagree with his logic I have some sympathy with his goal. I, like him, have little love for English nationalists and have no desire to see them in power.
I do not share his dislike of socialists, and see little to fear in anything Labour has to say, even if I (inevitably) do not agree with it all.
My wish is more pragmatic. Given where the polls start from (and I do know all the issues with polls, so there's little point discussing that) a hung parliament that prevents a Tory government looks like a good outcome for the Left this time round.
Now I admit I am being generous to include the LibDems in any definition of the Left. Again, I know all the issues in doing that. But they are Remain. And they are not English nationalists. And beggars can't be choosers when in many parts of the country (mine included) they represent the only way of preventing a Tory win, and I wish other parties would recognise that is a better outcome than the Tory incumbent. We have to live with FPTP.
And that is precisely why I think a hung parliament that might deliver electoral reform could be a good outcome.
Plus one that might deliver a second referendum.
And a Scottish referendum too.
And reform of the House of Lords.
And change in the role of the monarchy.
In between creating pragmatically close, if not wholly aligned, deals with the EU.
And delivering greater social justice.
No party is going to say this is their plan. That said, I really do wish that some might, amongst the tribalism, consider the greater good within the range of possible outcomes.
Most people in this country are not party aligned. Depending on where I lived in the UK I can imagine voting for at least six parties in this election. I have included Northern Ireland. And that does not make me fickle. Or a swing voter. It means I seek an outcome and would vote for the party most likely to help deliver it in a place. I am not alone. And a hung parliament might well deliver on my wishes.
I agree with Martin Wolf, but not his reasoning.
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A hung parliament would be the best outcome. The Tories are “leading” this country/these countries to disaster, ripping it/them fom the EU, plunging towards isolation in a hard cold hostile world, probably seeking to create a neo-liberal free market paradise in this island. Labour provide no leadership, are hopelessly divided, are unable to inspire the nations with the vision they offer, and seem content with the injustice of a FPTPsystem which they assume will reward them with an absolute majority as it has in the past. The American constitution can produce a Congress dominated by one party and a president of the other, thereby ensuring both checks and balance and a need to work towards compromise. The European parliamnet, with seats set out in the round, and MEPs elected by systems of proportional representation from 27 meber countries, has never operated with an absolute majority for any one party group, left, right, or centre; this forces groups to negotiate and reach compromise. Our system in the HoC has traditionally rewarded one or the other party with an absolute majority, ensuring effectively both one party rule and a five year dictatorship. The Brexit referendum revealed a near half and half split between remainers and leavers. Leavers imagine they “won”, and the leave parties have been under the delusion that this gives them the absolute right to drag this deepy divided country (countries) into the most extreme form of Brexit. Negotiation, compromise between leave and remain parties is anathema. Only a hung parliament will force the various parties into negotiation and compromise, and perhaps face the reality that this is a changed nation/nations that should be governed according to the rules of a proper legally established codified constitution that defines the role of the monarchy (or abolishes it), elects by some system of PR, creates a new elected upper house, defines the roles of the legislature, executive nad judiciary, defines the function and legal position of any referendum, and so forth.
I feel like a hung parliament would be pretty disastrous for the left.
I think it would likely lead to a coalition between the Lib Dems and the Tories again, the price the Tories pay, being a second referendum with Johnson’s deal v Remain on the ballot.
That would be it as far as the good news is concerned. Once the result of the second referendum is completed (whichever way it goes) we’re left with zero hope of the GND or any sort of progressive economic programme as the Tories press for Singapore-on-Thames (if leave) or more austerity (remain) and the Lib Dems squeeze through a bunch of ‘feel good, but change little’ policies like banning plastic straws.
One assumes if it’s a hung parliament, Corbyn will stand down, but the membership loves him so he’ll will be replaced with someone with the same socialist principles, and will I guess be just as unpalatable to Swinson.
I’m hoping Labour does well enough that they can form a stable govt with SNP support. Say Labour on 290 seats, SNP on 55. That would be a comfortable working majority without having to include the Lib Dems, whom I trust little more than the Tories.
That would work for me too
The quid pro quo for SNP support is an independence referendum for Scotland. And what happens if Scotland leaves the UK? The majority for labour disappears and with it any progressive reform in the UK. Probably for several generations.
The very personal animosity shown by Swinson toward Corbyn rules out any cooperation with LDs unless she loses her seat!
It is possible for both Swinson and Johnson to lose their seats. Then what?
Have you noticed how many seats Labour gets in Scotland?
And that Labour used to get majorities without Scotland?
The developing situation in Scotland is perhaps less well understood elsewhere in the UK. The latest opinion poll, commissioned by The Herald, which is generally regarded as unsympathetic to Scottish Independence, returned interesting results:
1. Which party will you vote for in the forthcoming General Election?: SNP 57.6%; Tory 14.9%; Lib Dem 12.5%; Labour 7.2%; D/K 7.8%
2. Are you in favour of Scotland remaining in the EU as an independent country: Yes 83%; No 14.4%, D/K 2.6%
The poll was of Herald subscription readers, who are presumed to be more sympathetic to the UK-Union (the Herald’s sister paper, The National, is an open supporter of Independence and its readers are presumed to reflect this), so the results are all the more noteworthy.
The results have been largely ignored by other MSM, which is probably no surprise. Obviously it’s just a poll, carrying all the usual caveats, and there’s a long way to go before the Election, but, as I’ve been pointing out here for a while, the direction of travel of public opinion in Scotland has been apparent for some time and is accelerating markedly. On the basis of the poll results, it looks like SNP might return almost all of the 59 Scottish MPs, eliminating virtually all the Tory and Labour sitting MPs. As Richard B states, Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire seat is also far from safe.
If this poll is credible, the obvious outcome is a swift move towards an independence vote and indeed Sturgeon stated on 30th October that she will demand the right to hold a vote once the outcome of the election is known.
I agree about the LDP. There’s far too many ex-Tory and Labour MPs in it now to make any meaningful agreement with Labour – but I could be wrong.
The only way to get a middle way is through PR. FPTP is dead.
We need an end to the politics of making a section of society happy by making another section very unhappy. The tables need to be turned and then levelled.