The election campaign has weeks to run, and I am not going to cover all my thinking on the day after we know it will happen. But, I will, nonetheless, speculate on what the big issues are.
That means that I must say now that despite what seems glaringly obvious, the issue is not Brexit. It might seem that way, but I do not think it is. Brexit is not about anything per se, unless, that is, it is about 'getting it done'. As my recent enquiries have shown, no one really knows why they want Brexit. What they know is what they do and do not want on other issues.
So, they do not want austerity.
They do want better control of migration.
They do want higher living standards.
They do want better public services, which they think they are being denied.
They do want to feel that the government is in control.
They want a sense of identity.
There has been failure on these issues. 'Taking back control' has become the mantra that suggests to people that these things can be addressed. The claim has been that Brexit supposedly delivers them. It won't. That requires other policies. And that is why this election has to be about those other policies, looking beyond any debate on Brexit itself.
So I suggest the big themes are:
1) Austerity
2) Real wages
3) Public services
4) Believing the government is in control - that it has a plan
5) Resolving who 'we' are - which is a question on the union.
To pull this together there is, then, the Green New Deal, which is a plan, does increase employment, does provide secure and well-paid work, does deliver jobs in every constituency and does address the issue of having a plan - because it is something other than Brexit to believe in.
Does it resolve the question of the union? No, I don't think so.
But on everything else it works.
Expect to hear a great deal about it from all sides. But right now Labour and the LibDems are way ahead in their planning on the issue and the Tories are very far behind. The SNP have ground to catch up, but for them the issue is independence.
With luck this election will be about vision, and not Brexit. If it is the Green New Deal is the only game in town, and is a sure-fire winner.
I'm hopeful.
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Really!…not sure the electorate agrees with you
Are you sure you are not trying to make the election about you? Desperately trying to stay relevant..
Labour is already putting it at the forefront of its campaign
So too the LibDems as far as I know
I think you’re wrong…
Maybe that’s true but it is a distraction because they have fluffed their lines on Brexit.
Green issues for both parties are not clearly thought thorough.
Glen Tamplin says:
“Maybe that’s true but it is a distraction because they have fluffed their lines on Brexit.”
I think it’s Brexit which is the trivial distraction. I’m not convinced that was its purpose, but it is what has become.
“Green issues for both parties are not clearly thought thorough.”
Can’t argue with that.
Richard
I would add to your list: at No 4 “and they want to feel that their voice matters.” I think so much of the angst about Brexit has been about the unwillingness/inability of Westminster to deliver the referendum result, albeit no-one knew what the collective Leave vote meant.
The Green New Deal can partly deal with this by reinvigorating local government and reaching individual street level. Handled right, it could be a fantastic way of involving people in local decision making and getting people in direct contact with their councillors. (As an example I would commend my own local councillors who countered inaccurate scare-mongering, local newspaper reports of a new development, by going door to door to hand out information and deal with any questions).
By reaching out locally and by reversing austerity, the GND may also tackle some of the causes of Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalisms. I should say I am only on the side of the Union for selfish reasons. England has a large Tory majority without them.
Lets hope the election campaign will not degenee last topicrate into the usual slanging match and mutual character assassination attempts by the various parties.
It is very clear that the climate and ecological breakdown crisis are the most vital policy issues to address but sadly, now the XR protests are beginning to fade from the media’s memory, Brexit and ya-booism is taking over again.
Will the Green New Deal (or “greem Industrial policy”) as Corbyn calls it, take centre stage? It should do but from last night’s Newsnight discussion with reps from all the “main” parties not a whisper of climate, ecology, de-carbonisation etc although Emily Maitlin did put “the environment” as the last item on the list of policy areas that would come up in the election. It is obvious that some of the main parties are beginning to take climate seriously but still almost in a token way. It seems that only the Green Party is making it the number one priority and Caroline Lucas is a shining light to guide our electoral choice.
I did not put Green on the list as such
I said the Green New Deal wrapped these issues up
That’s slightly different
Logically you’re right, of course. But I fear logic will take second place to emotion, especially in the marginals. But I’m not going to get into any detailed observations – there’s going to be no shortage of journalistic analysis and predictions in the weeks ahead from much more qualified people than me (not difficult!). Anyhow – for what it’s worth and to get the ball rolling – here are a few off-the-cuff random observations:
1) It’s going to be more tribal and dirty than usual, don’t you think?
2) The LibDems are stronger than they were in 2017 attracting both Tory and Labour voters in strongly Remain seats.
3) The Brexit Party is an unknown factor that will inevitably attract Labour voters in the Midlands and North East and maybe some hard-right Tories.
4) Both Johnson and Corbyn are divisive personalities, even within their own parties, and this will be a factor for voters.
5) The Tories will have learned some lessons from last time and Johnson is not a bad campaigner.
6) The right-wing tabloids will crank up their hatchet job on Corbyn – ” a terrorist-loving Trotskyite not to be trusted with the keys of Number 10″.
7) Re. the Green New Deal – the MSM mantra will be: “How will it be paid for?” – same old, same old.
8) And while Labour’s fiscal policies will be torn apart as irresponsible and economically illiterate, the Tories will announce across-the-board spending (but nothing like enough to get us back to pre-2007 let alone an investment in the future)
9) The Tories are significantly better funded than any of the other parties and on this occasion a lot better organised at HQ than Labour.
10) The SNP will clean up north of the border (however Jo Swinson will most likely retain her seat).
11) Sadly the Green Party will not do well but Caroline Lucas is safe in Brighton.
12) There will be significant and unaccountable ‘outside’ intervention, essentially via social media, from the friends of the Ayn Rand loving ‘Britannia Unchained’ brigade.
13) Not enough young voters will turn out to make a significant difference.
14) As always the weather, especially at this time of the year, will be a factor.
150 The turnout will be pretty much average for a GE (could be wrong about this).
OK. That’s enough. I’m sure I’ve missed some obvious factors. And sorry for repeating the obvious but just needed to get it off my chest – lol. Wish I could be more optimistic. Definitely time for an overdue morning coffee. Cheers.
Thanks
There will be a new Green New Deal funding report…
@John D
“1) It’s going to be more tribal and dirty than usual, don’t you think?”
The campaigning might be tribal, (and it’s always dirty) but much of the electorate is likely to vote tactically and go against traditional tribal loyalties. Those who know what they want will vote tactically I think. On both (all) sides.
Corbyn has said Labour will fight all seats again. Some people don’t learn. 🙁
@ Andrew (Andy) Crow
On reflection, you’re right. There will be more tactical voting. Post in haste; repent at leisure!
While the media is awash with opinion, David Allen Green offers a somewhat different take on the situation – https://davidallengreen.com/2019/10/brexit-and-the-general-election. (Hope you don’t mind the cross-post Richard).
David is always worth reading
Richard
Just realised, after all that, I didn’t really address your principal theme re the GND. While, like you, I believe it should be the focal point of the election, I don’t believe it will be. At least not in so many words. Clearly ‘Austerity’ will figure large, especially from Labour, but you can’t escape ‘Brexit’ with its emotional resonance that drowns out rational debate around real socio-economic policies. And as always, the Tories will broadly campaign on their superior management ability, which is a laugh. Sajid Javid will come across as more ‘authentic’ than John McDonnell – and more convincing than Spreadsheet Phil ever was. But what the heck do I know? Our GEs with FPTP voting are always weird and usually unpredictable events. Think Gordon Brown and the woman he dismissed as bigoted. And Kinnock’s “We’re all right!” Sheffield rally in 1992. Anything can happen. Nevertheless, I’m always on the losing side!
I think the climate should be front and center for labour in this campaign.
The green new deal is the way forward to fight the oncoming problems that climate change will bring.
But the tories are climate change deniers to a man and yet it is the one really big topic that will affect how people will vote, witness this report in the guardian today
Climate crisis affects how majority will vote in UK election — poll
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/30/climate-crisis-affects-how-majority-will-vote-in-uk-election-poll
It seems a real no-brainer to me put climate into every debate every, argument, every poster and every advert.,,
In johnsons queens speech there was not a single paragraph devoted to it not a sentence not even the word itself was mentioned but it is the single biggest issue facing all life on planet earth.
I will say again that I have no idea how this will turn out.
I just hope that Labour and the Lib Dems are civil to each other and somehow agree to join forces.
But Richard is right in that a lot GND policies need to be levered in somehow.
Pilgrim Slight Return says:
“But Richard is right in that a lot GND policies need to be levered in somehow.”
What we’re not succeeding in getting across, with the Green New Deal proposal is the extent to which it is ‘New Deal’ economic policy and not just about ‘Green’.
The double whammy shift towards sustainable employment creating a vibrant economy in place of austerity, gets lost in the negativity of ‘doing without’ the things we’ve become accustomed to. (Cars, meat, technological advances etc. none of which are going anywhere soon, if at all.)
The detractors are getting away with creating a false dichotomy. That has to be exposed and demolished somehow.
We should have been on this virtuous track for at least a decade when the financial crash exposed the folly of current neoliberal. (neo con) economic orthodoxy.
Pilgrim why on earth would Labour want to join forces with the austerely loving liberals. They are just yellow Tories. Ready to step into the breach and champion the interests of the 1% when the Tories become too toxic for the voters.
Because otherwise FPTP will deliver a Tory majority.
A majority that will bring about a devastating hard Brexit, continue to ignore the climate crisis and underfund public services.
Without some sort of arrangement, the LibDems will gain some seats, but not enough to stop or soften Brexit. Without some sort of arrangement Labour’s plans for a GND and a People’s Vote will remain ideologically pure, but irrelevant, as they don’t have enough seats to do anything about them. There is plenty of alignment between them to make a compromise worth it.
That should be enough of a reason. I am glad to see PC, LibDems and Greens are talking about a progressive alliance, but it is madness that Labour isn’t in the room (and that is the fault of both the Labour and LibDem leaderships).
I’m sorry but the LibDems and the Greens don’t do alliances except on their own terms and always to their benefit rather than the common good. In Stroud we have an excellent Labour MP in David Drew. He won the seat in 1997 after years of mediocre absentee Tory representation. In 2010 he lost the seat largely through the bullish claims made by the LDs. He won the seat back in 2017 and is standing again but this year not only are the LDs making extravagant claims but Molly Scot Cato is standing as a Green, That will take votes from Labour and could well gift the seat to the Tories. She will come 4th. It is a pure ego trip on her part. Don’t tell me about alliances. Labour have deliberately not fielded candidates it Council elections where LDs and Greens stand a better chance of beating the Tories but quite recently the LDs refused to do a deal and the Tories beat Labour by 1 vote. Jo Swinson’s behaviour tells you all you need to know about how keen she is to avoid Brexit.
My answer is that all sides need to get a grip then
Hi Richard,
I had the misfortune to skim through the Mail on Sunday whilst at a relative’s house and came across this Peter Hitchens piece – https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2019/10/peter-hitchens-one-day-it-will-be-impossible-to-criticise-the-fanatics-of-extinction-rebellion-until.html. This is supposedly making an argument against Extinction Rebellion and green policies more generally. It gives an idea of the unthinking idiocy that is prevalent on the right in relation to environmental policies; I thought it was possibly the most stupid thing that I had read in a long time.
What Peter seems to be advocating is a kind of country-level manifestation of the bystander effect. We won’t do anything about the climate emergency because China is so much bigger than us. China could then think that if fully developed countries with high living standards can’t be bothered to change then why should they, and so on. We can then all find reasons to do nothing as the crisis gets worse and worse.
Apologies for posting a link to the Mail on your blog 🙂
The argument ignores the fact that all change has to start somewhere
And if it starts nowhere then nothing happens
And in this case life on earth ceases
I doubt he cares
@Neil Robertson
I read a very sensible and well argued article by Peter Hitchens once.
He was reviewing events of the past. He and the Mail readership clearly feel more at home living in the past than what they imagine will be the dystopic future they tend to vote for.
@Andy
Some of the stuff that is written about climate change in the right wing press is so daft that I struggle to think that the person writing it really believes it.
Unfortunately some of the people reading it do believe it – as evidenced by the person whose copy of The Mail I was reading saying that “climate change is made up” 🙁
Agreed
And that’s really scary
[…] thought my list as to the priorities people might have when considering who to vote for, which I published yesterday, was a little lacking on the environmental front. I did not list green issues as a priority in […]
I have come to the conclusion regarding BREXIT that there is some sort of ‘death cult’ at work here. Having read about cult psychology recently, BREXIT – and its main proponents in Farage and now Johnson – have their followers in some sort of trance.
I use the notion of death only because it sums up the economic self-harm BREXIT will create – I happen to think there are parallels.
Both Farage and Johnson (the latter who just seems to be affected by Farage’s gravitational pull on the Tory party and always seems to be toying with it which is dangerous in itself) exhibit many attributes of cult leaders you can read about.
In fact, it is quite possible that the ‘TINA’ doctrine introduced by Thatcher has itself a cult-like quality and was the precursor of this sort of thinking and leadership style in our politics. And it is not even from the Left!
Look at this from one website on decision making:
‘Doctrine is reality:
A Cult’s doctrine is considered the ‘Truth’ with a capital T, it covers every eventuality and members are expected to accept it completely, even if they don’t understand it. Eric Hoffer says that the best cult doctrines are unverifiable and un-evaluable. This means they cannot be proven or disproved, they have to be accepted on faith.
A fundamental aspect of cult psychology is to get the person to distrust themselves, and to develop a new identity where the doctrine is the master program for all thoughts, feelings and actions. This pseudo-identity (see later) does not need to be in the presence of the group leader to know what to do. In any given situation, the program tells them how they should act, think or feel, (in order to satisfy the cult leader!)’
Sound familiar at all? What was Richard saying and many of us agreeing about t’other day about not being able to get a sensible answer out of many Leavers? The brick wall of ‘controlling our borders’; ‘taking back control’?
The cult leader in the BREXIT case is Farage & Co, the ERG etc.
Oh dear. I tell you it looks like it to me. Get out there and read I say – see what you think. I have heard other commentators use the cult analogy but not in so much depth but now I can see what they were getting at and I agree.
Pilgrim Slight Return says:
“I have come to the conclusion regarding BREXIT that there is some sort of ‘death cult’ at work here.”
Brexit thinking (I use the term loosely) is very similar in tone and style to Unionist thinking (as expressed on Fb sites) in Scotland. Rational discussion is nigh impossible because the position maintained is one of faith.
What are trotted-out in the guise of arguments are unsubstantiated beliefs. Mostly in soundbite format. Like God is Love: Fact. That is an article of faith which even mass slaughter does not shake because God moves in mysterious ways. QED.
Arguing head-on with people of this mindset is a waste of breath. The only hope for change is to persuade the undecided that there is a better and more rational way of thinking and behaving. Accepting, the while, that human beings are driven to a large extent by irrational impulses. That won’t change. Humanity is the fragile clay we have to work with to build decent societies. Or not.
You mention identity – is that not a big part of Brexit in fact?…
Teflon Don says:
“You mention identity — is that not a big part of Brexit in fact?…”
Not in fact, but in fantasy I would suggest. 🙂
I was musing the other day about just how long it took the Italians (who of course didn’t exist as a nation until about last week) to come to terms with not being at the centre of the known world and in charge of it after their empire collapsed around their ears.?
They had certainly developed a successful city state culture within a millennium in time to lead the Renaissance. Perhaps Brexit delusions will evaporate as quickly.
🙂