So, we may have an election. We may know more later today.
Why do the Tories want it in December? Because, I think, Cummings is right for once. This is their best chance. By coincidence, that means Corbyn is right too. Swinson is indifferent, and I am with Angus MacNeil in thinking the SNP is calling this one wrong, excepting the fact that they want an election before the Alex Salmond trial.
Why is this the best time for the Tories? Because despite being dead in a ditch they can claim Brexit progress, even if that's not true. Since 2017 they have got nowhere. But they can claim it.
And they will not have had to publish poor Budget data.
A flu epidemic exposing the weakness in the NHS will not have begun.
And in December 12 students will be at home and will have registered to vote at their universities. Tories love rigged polls.
Plus they think Christmas distractions will mean only the dedicated will vote, and that's the old. And they vote Tory. There will be no nativity plays for them on 12 December.
Cynical? You bet.
Add to that Labour being in disarray. They do not have candidates. The leadership cannot get their candidates in - note Margaret Hodge's reselection last night. And they do not have a campaign team in place. That's a great place to start from.
But, let me be realistic. No one has the slightest idea what will happen. Polls are all over the place. Extrapolation of their findings to local situations is nigh on impossible. And the idea that the Tories are a great campaign team is simply absurd.
The fact is that elections are won on three things. One is fundamentals. One is chance. And the other gaffes.
The Tories think 12 December maximises their chances. I think that they have that one right.
On fundamentals they're taking a risk. 31 October may revive the Brexit Party that has seen its support halve since May because its support believed Boris would deliver. It's clear he hasn't. That may rebound badly on the Tories.
Then there's the fact that the divides in society are now not left / right but leave / remain and young / old. Unless you are in Scotland, Northern Ireland and maybe Wales, of course, when other issues add to the mix.
But let me stick my neck out: on fundamentals Johnson may have already blown his base - ‘dead in a ditch' may come to haunt him. I accept though, that's pure speculation.
And then there are gaffes. The Labour team made few in 2017. It's still the same front team. That is not a guarantee, but it helps on the gaffometer scale.
The Tories have Johnson / Raab / Javid / Patel / Truss to name but a few more than capable of messing things up, in a very big way. And the ship steadiers are gone. Gaffe by design is more likely as a result. And they did well at that in 2017.
As for the LibDems, might Jo Swinson improve on Tim Farron's lousy record? It would not be hard. But who knows?
I still think Johnson has got his call right. But even so what is his chance of the outright win only YouGov tell him is likely? I don't see it. This is his election to lose. And he does not look like the winner he might have hoped to be in July. I think it's hung parliament time again.
I also suspect that's what he wants. Unlike the Britannia Unchained crowd he does not know why he wants power. A hung parliament might let him off the hook he made for himself in 2016 when he opted for Leave. To put it another way, the biggest risk is people might just rumble he has no conviction for his supposed strategy. And that might be what kills it.
It's that or the gaffes will have it. Unlock the election.
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Oh…gaffes. !!
I read giraffes. I thought you were going to say something irrelephant.
Off, now to Specsavers. 🙂
Groan!
Why?
Zoos & wilderness on the mind, hey? Wonder why…
I’m normally with Angus Brendan on most things but I was impressed by Nicola’s tweeting of her reasoning which openly turned on Ian Dunt’s article https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/24/remain-should-push-for-an-election.
The greater risk overall is to do nothing – i.e. just go on blocking an election while Johnson manipulates us toward the exhaustion of the January 31st deadline and/or tries on a fresh set of timetables to push the WAB through. As Dunt, I think correctly, argues the chance of getting a new popular vote/referendum/People’s Vote through the present Commons looks heart-breakingly slender – and even worse given the factional infighting which has just broken out in that campaign. He and Nicola (I surmise) are also right that the battles ahead are every bit as crucial during both the main stages of Brexiting – which would be a long painful process and no mere drop from a cliff. The sea tends to grind fallen cliffs very slowly and very, very small.
On the possible election outcome you, correctly, admit (and contra Angus) nobody – not even Angus – can predict how this election will end. The timing is dreadful – a mistake that the Benn Act helped to create by not getting a longer extension to get us out of the winter. In fairness, they could probably not have got enough support in the Commons for anything longer – an apt symbol of how ‘where-we-are’ is a singularly useless, political stymie. At least, the election throws everything back in the mix – including the not insignificant fact that there will now be no WAB with its Second Reading under Borisovitch’s belt. (I cannot help visualising him in a belted Russian blouse, sitting with Trump, as dolls on Putin’s knees; the irony that these two are unwittingly conniving at advancing Putin’s foreign policy never ceases to astonish.)
Added to the uncertainty re the ‘main’ parties, there is the Faragista ‘joker’ of the Brexit pseudo-party, potential dirty tricks on the internet (Cummings anyone?), Tory squillions versus Labour and the SNP’s foot-soldiers…. so it could all come down to a mixture of “events, dear boy, events” (gaffes in your terms) – and the weather! From Scotland’s point of view, we’ve tried to save England and Wales from this catastrophe, and we may yet contribute to so doing – but in the face of sustained contempt and hostility, we cannot forever postpone the rescuing of ourselves. So, as Fidelma Cook put it neatly in The Herald this last week, https://www.facebook.com/euforindyscot/posts/2696327267092408?__tn__=K-R
“The page turns. The time is now.”
Thanks
Students can register to vote at “uni” and at “home” but can only vote at one location.
Getting them to vote anywhere is an issue
“Getting [students] to vote anywhere is an issue”
It shouldn’t be. The promise to arrange the entirely affordable scrapping of student fees ought to focus the minds of even the dimmest undergraduates.
Education needs to be re-established as a public good and funded accordingly for all our sakes. Before the wealthiest enshrine the notion that there is a market price for a qualification and studying is an optional extra.
The only difficult part of that is figuring-out how retrospective reimbursement should be organised. We do still have Maths courses though don’t we ?
The local Uni has posters explaining voter registration to students.
Students can register at two places, and vote in both at local elections, but only one at general elections.
Voter registration in the 18-34 age bracket has soared….
I hope so
I have a son registered in two locations
Now he has to decide where to vote to best effect…
Indeed. It will probaby be the most difficult-to-call election in the modern era.
There is, however, one statistic, the index of proportionality, which sheds some light. This is the ratio by party of the percentage share of seats won to the percentage share of votes won. With FPTP this index is usually well in excess of one for the Tories and Labour. Across the 2010, 2015 and 2017 elections the index varied from 1.28, through 1.38 to 1.15 for the Tories. For Labour it varied from 1.34. through 1.17 to 1.01. Despite winning 40% of the votes cast in 2017, Labour’s share of seats was only fractionally higher. This meant that Labour stacked up votes in safe seats, added votes in seats where it wasn’t in the contest and snaffled a handful of marginals.
It is very difficult to see Labour approaching the 40% share of the vote it secured in 2017 and it is even more difficult to see it increasing its index of proportionality by much.
Conversely for the Tories their index of proportionality was highest, at 1.38, in 2015 when UKIP captured almost 13% of votes cast and siphoned quite a few votes from the Tories. It is almost certain that the Tories will fall well short of the 43.2% of the vote secured in 2017, but even a significant Brexit Party share of the votes (8-10%) could result in a big increase in the Tories’ index of proportionality. This effect could be reinforced by the Brexit Party taking votes from both Labour and the Tories in seats that are straight fights between the two.
Even when the Lib Dems garned almost a quarter of the votes cast in 2010 their index of proportionality was only 0.37. It fluctuated between 0.16 and 0.25 in the last elections. They might get it back up to the 2010 value.
Therefore it’s hard to see the Tories exceeding 300 seats and Labour will struggle to stay any way above 200. The Northern Ireland, SNP, PC and Green seats will add to around 80. The Lib Dems could snaffle 40-45 and the Brexit Party might even pick up a handful. So we’ll be back in to hung parliament territory. Oh dear.
Paul, Corbyn has said that if Labour don’t win, he will step down. Now, I don’t know whether he means obtain a majority or just beat the LibDems. He has been equivocating rather a lot the past few years. Nevertheless, I prefer virtually anything than the current lot. The song that comes to mind for me a good deal these days is the MASH theme, Suicide is painless.
Paul Hunt says:
“So we’ll be back in to hung parliament territory. Oh dear.”
I don’t see anything ‘Oh dear’ about it.
I’ve seen what landslide majorities can do. I don’t like that at all. Not one bit.
If we get one for the SNP in Scotland I won’t be looking forward to another once Scotland is independent, and I won’t expect to see one.
So, our MPs are going to ignore the “Will of the People” at expressed at the ballot box in 2017, and ask them to think again about the composition of the House of Commons, three years early.
It will be our third General Election in less than 5 years. I won’t be surprised if we end up with another hung Parliament, and another General Election in 2020, until we get the “right” answer.
In the words of Brenda from Bristol: “You’re joking? Not another one?! Oh for god’s sake. Honestly, I can’t stand this. There’s too much politics going on at the moment.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6-IQAdFU3w
Andrew says:
“So, our MPs are going to ignore the “Will of the People” as expressed at the ballot box in 2017”
What on Earth was the will of the people in 2017 ? A resounding ‘Meh ?’
Theresa May lost a comfortable majority and had to buy seats from the DUP to keep a shambolic rudderless government together (if you could describe rats fighting in a sack as being ‘together’).
By all means let’s have another election and see if we can make a better fist of it. It can’t possibly be worse than the last two years can it ?
I refer the Honourable Gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago: to whit:
“Manifestly the People collectively decided that we should have a balanced Parliament in which no particular party had a majority, because that would force the MPs to cooperate, to reach a consensus position acceptable to those holding a range of viewpoints.”
@Andrew
I missed what you had said about the desire for a balanced Parliament.
I think we are in agreement.
In 2017 I told anyone that would listen that these early elections tend to annoy the electorate and the 100+ Tory majority isn’t going to happen, they will be lucky to get any majority.
This time it seems so different and I am coming over all pessimistic.
Of course having a vote in winter when you are relying on old and frail people to go to the polls to maximise your vote might backfire. What if we have an early season snow storm for instance?
The university vote: you are right just watch Canterbury switch back after voting against Tory for the first time ever last time.
As an aside I was thinking there ought to be a penalty for circumventing the fixed term parliament act (especially twice in 5 years). How about if you vote for an early election you aren’t allowed to put yourself forward again for public office until the original 5yr term has run its course? These MPs are saying parliament isn’t working without realising what this means is they aren’t working! They should be stepping aside and letting someone else try.
I’ve got to say that I am just not as sure about anything if there is an election.
I agree that Boris is doing the right thing for himself but I also see considerable risks for him too.
Will voters buy the Lib Dems?
Is Labour in such disarray?
Can Labour and the Lib Dems work together?
God knows.
I think the Tories have called this right. All of the things that you call in their favour will stick and benefit them. All of the things you label as risk will turn out to be inconsequential. I don’t believe Johnson’s base will blame him for the October Brexit failure, I think they’ll give him a pass. I also think the Brexit party will work out which side it’s bread is buttered and target ‘Leave voting / Labour Remain MP’ seats; places that would never vote Tory but want a straight up and down Brexit MP. I see the Tories walking away with a majority, at least the size of Cameron’s in 2015, and with a lot of Remain or ‘EU close ties’ sympathetic MPs expunged.
As they say in all of the Star Wars films “I have a bad feeling about this”.
I can hope you are wrong
Me too.
No doubt the Tories will follow this advice in their campaign –
” All propaganda must be popular and its intellectual level adjusted to the most limited intelligence it must be limited to a very few points and must harp on slogans until the last member of the public understands what you want him to understand”
Author – that master of propaganda Adolf Hitler
So expect slogans such as “Getting Brexit done” and similar empty promises to be hammered home at every opportunity
Prediction:
1. the Tories will win a majority of seats and form the next government. This is the consequence of the disunity of the Remainer parties and the injustices of the FPTP system.
2. The combined votes of anti-Brexit pro-Remain votes will be substantially greater than the combined Tory and Brexit party votes. But the Remain parties will not get their act together, and so let Mr Johnson stay at number 10.
3. Boris Johnson will be next Prime Minister and will promise to fulfil the “Will of the People”. The Will of the People will in fact be to remain, but never mind – the UK will leave.
4. There will be no change to the British Constitution under Tory rule, though the peripheral nations may break away in the chaos following the break with the EU.
5. There will have to be be a new monarch within the next 10 years; however, that monarch may never be crowned, and a constitutional English republic may be declared.
And the gaffes have it. The gaffes have it. Unlock!
Well now, now that it’s happening I’m actually looking forward to a GE – and that’s a rare thing as they can be fairly pointless, what with the silly FPTP system – but the uncertainty makes for a very unpredictable outcome which should make for exciting viewing. And a new mix of MPs might, possibly, break the deadlock of parliament. And a new speaker to get elected too.
… I might be a bit of a political geek…
I’ll leave you with a short inspirational speech by Deidre Brock MP from today in the HoC:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DeidreBrock/status/1189235925458542593
(Jacob Rees mogg was actually being civilised when doing house business, I didn’t realise it was possible,,, but I guess with an election coming up he may be considering his manners more thoughtfully)
Unlock indeed….
The country does not want it, I am sure
And that is a factor Johnson may well have not taken into consideration
But geeks can’t help but emjoy such things
I’m a geek too….
Well. You know, we keep getting told that no one one wants a GE, but it might be that people will be glad to actually get some kind of say again given the stalemate of current parliament. And suddenly politicians have to be nice to you again.
I’ve still to go out into the world and get a feel for general thinking though,,,
I believe nothing the media tells me, except maybe the weather reports, and even then, a pinch of salt is needed.
Boris has to go to the people as Cameron did in the referendum because he has no mandate to do what he thinks he wants to do, and he can’t do that by winning the rational argument (because there is no rational argument to which the answer is Brexit).
If enough voters are prepared to believe a known liar and fantasist he’ll be able to ram this foolish Brexit bill past the House. Heaven help us I think he might manage.