The polarisation of politics continues: the Lib Dems have leapt over Labour in polls (for what they're worth) as a result of promising Remain. And staggeringly 32% of the country would still vote Tory, which to me is almost incomprehensible given how badly the government is doing.
I'm clear: I know there are people who resolutely believe in Leave. I know some of them, quite well. They have a right to their views, of course. And I respect that.
But holding an opinion is one thing. Boris Johnson is, however, at any possible level of appraisal proving to be inept. Yesterday he stood in front of a television camera and denied the press was present at a discussion. That requires the most staggering level of inability, or the most extraordinary capacity to deny reality. Both are undesirable in leaders.
I make no pretence that I have answers to answers as to why Johnson still has any support. But if he took a moment to reflect (and I doubt he does) he might worry. He is having a nightmare time. David Cameron, in comparison (I stress), did quite well during much of his period in office, even if I utterly disliked what he did. And he is now disliked most heartily, and few hold back from saying so. I am sure Her Majesty will. But I bet she'd be at the front of the queue if she could join it.
Johnson should enjoy this moment. It may be as good as it gets.
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“And staggeringly 32% of the country would still vote Tory, which to me is almost incomprehensible given how badly the government is doing.”
I confess I do not find it “incomprehensible”. Brexit is deeper than Brexit, and it obliges us to recalibrate our standard norms of measurement. We are finding out something about the hidden nature of political belief in Britain (an unsettling experience), that we should have undrestood always underlay the conventional mask of opinion the public presents to the world. I suspect it is a surprise even to those who are being polled; they may even remain unaware that their deeply held contradictions are – contradictions……..
As the saying goes – There are none so blind as those who won’t see
Even when Labour was in its pomp under Tony Blair, the Lib Dems were making inroads and they were led by a string of ineffectual leaders, support for the Tories at elections rarely if ever fell below 30%. This is the irreducible core of mainly small ‘c’ conservative voters in this country who capitalise the ‘c’ when they enter the polling booths. And they will support the party and whoever the party puts forward as leader come what may. The Conservative Party is not known as the “stupid party” for nothing. But, in the main, they are not bad people. Vanishingy few would deserve Bevan’s excoriation of Tories as vermin. And even when their party is out of power the effective functioning of democracy demands that their consent to be governed is secured.
But the reverse, by definition, is also true. And that is what the current government is failing to observe and, as a result, behaving illegitimately. It is breaching the norms, conventions and precedents of the democratic process. And, in the absence of a codified, written constitution, these norms, conventions and precedents are all we have. That is the nub of the current case before the Supreme Court. But, unfortunately, it is focusing on only one example of egregious behaviour in isolation.
Even if the Court were to decide the Government’s suspension of Parliament was unlawful, I doubt it would shift the views of many of these Tory voters. Sadly, the problem is called Jeremy Corbyn. Once Tony Benn retired from Parliament (even though he continued his political activism) he became the Tories’ favourite socialist – because he exercised no power. But they have a visceral and deep-seated revulsion of the possibility that a Bennite might lays his hands on the lever of power. And this revulsion is shared much more widely than among small ‘c’ voters.
It is a sad irony that the Labour high command has finally stumbled on what is the only sensible and democratic approach to resolving this Brexit mess, but it will probably damage its already negligible chances of being elected to government.
The Tory lead in the polls, with 32% apparently expressing their support for them and Mr Johnson, is simply explained: there are now so many peoi;lpe who will declare that democracy demands the referendum decision be fulfilled. “We voted to leave – why won’t they do what we want?” 2If this is a democracy, why won’t they let us just leave?”. “Parliament should obey the will of the people, the democratic vote”. That is the perception of so many, however much you may try to argue about parliamentary democracy and direct referendum democracy and what the term democracy actually means, and whether the wishes of majority of voters in Scotland should be acknowledged. As far as an awful lot of peole are concerned, democracy means getting out of the EU immediatly, so satisfying the will of the people. And there is one man who has the power, or promises he has the power, to get the UK out of the EU and put an end to all the everlasting indecision and argumentation and blocking of the will of the people etc. I know – we know – these are irrational and hopeless delusions – but they are the feelings of an awful lot of people, and this is why the Incredible Hulk who promises the end of the nightmare, is getting the support of one third of the electorate, while the rest of the electorate are divided and leaderless and confronted by a bunch of squabbling pygmies offering solutions. I know this is objectively an entirely inappropriate quote from Milton, but it does express the vision offerd by Mr Johnson to the masses impatient with the unending tedious drama. I am surprised he hasn’t used it. Yet. “Methinks I see in my mind a noble and puissant nation rousing herself like a strong man after sleep, and shaking her invincible locks. Methinks I see her as an eagle mewing her mighty youth, and kindling her undazzled eyes at the full midday beam.” We should alwqays remeber that it is not what is true that guides people’s decisions, but what they think is true.
Let’s put it this way – maybe if you were part of that 32% and you realised that you’d be backing something that was quite as wrong as modern British Conservatism, maybe you’d have trouble accepting it too?
That is the only way I can explain it – that and the fact that a hard rump of the 32% obviously benefit from the Tories being in power.