I was having one of my regular discussions on politics with a friend yesterday. This particular person spends even more time considering the current state of play than I do.
We scenario played Brexit.
We made no assumption on who would win the Tory election.
We did assume the winner would pursue a unicorn policy of trying to renegotiate Brexit, with the absolute certainty that they would fail.
We presumed Hunt might win a vote of no confidence in July, but not necessarily in September.
We presumed Johnson might lose in July.
In either case we could not see an election before September.
Try as we might we could not see an outright Labour victory, although we could see it as the major party.
We could not see a Labour coalition. They dislike the LibDems and SNP too much. So there would be a minority government.
We did not think there would be a major Brexit Party presence.
We could not see Labour under Corbyn asking for an extension to EU membership. That may be contentious. I believe he will say that does not respect the referendum.
We thought it very unlikely any Tory would ask for an extension.
We saw no chance of a referendum being called.
All these options got mulled over more times than was good for us.
And what did we conclude? We ended up with No Deal being by far the most likely option whatever happens.
Why? Because no one has the will to stop it. And it is the backstop in law. That's why. And imagining that will change with any current leadership before 31 October is very hard.
Unless - and this was our only let out - a newly elected parliament overturned Corbyn too if he would not prevent No Deal. Only an election and the emergence of cross party working to deliver a deal - which would be May's Deal - by 31 October could change this. And that would require a government to actually ask Europe and get this done.
Is that possible in the available time? We doubted it. But you have to clutch straws. And this situation is beginning to look desperate.
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Lets start preparing for No Deal.
Yes It will hurt…. Many people will loose their jobs. There will be a recession.
However, this might be the quintessential crisis that changes everything, brings forth the downfall of Tories, changes the economic policies of Labour away from ‘…if you’re putting the rent on the credit card month after month…’ to something else.
Something needed to happen. Remember, at the time of Brexit, Osbourne wanted to balance the books, heaped so much austerity on the country. People hit the ‘leave’ button, as it was the only way out.
And Brexit no deal could be the bitter tasting medicine that, eventually, fixes things.
I am inclined to agree on this. A “no deal” crash out might prove to be the experiment that confirms or denies the hypothesis that leaving the EU and trading on WTO terms would be disastrous. Only by having the oafish buffoon Johnson as PM, and a dose of chaos, may it be demonstrated that the withdrawal into glorious isolation is in fact suicidal. Perhaps then “apres la deluge” might we see the destruction of the Tory party and the old establishment, drastic constitutional reform – even a properly written constitution, far-reaching realignment of the British economy, and a transfer of power to the younger more internationalist generations from the old farts who wallow in memories of Empire, Dunkirk, D-Day and Churchill. But is suppose this perverse desire for no deal is suicidal: the memory of the words of that song from M.A.S.H. keep coming to my mind:
Through early morning fog I see
Visions of the things to be
The pains that are withheld for me
I realize and I can see
That suicide is painless
It brings on many changes
And I can take or leave it if I please
I sang this to my sons the other day
They were staggered that it ever got on television….
Trivia. You probably know that Mike Altman (Robert Altman’s son) was only 15 when he penned those words. How scary is that in relation to what we’re bequeathing the next generation. The good news is he ended up making more money from the lyrics than his dad did from producing the movie. Read into that metaphorically whatever one chooses.
Incoming! 🙂
That’s all very well Tony unless you are the one losing their job.
Knowing what you do it’s not going to affect you, I know a lot who will.
I agree with at least 90% of your analysis, Richard, but I’m a bit more optimistic about avoiding No Deal. I think there will be a general election and we’ll end up with Labour as the largest party on maybe 300 seats, who will form a minority govt with SNP confidence and supply backing. I think a condition of confidence and supply from the SNP will be the revocation of Article 50 before the 31 Oct deadline. There will then be a 2nd EU referendum – probably in the spring of 2020 – which I expect Remain to win (maybe 55-45).
Jeremy Corbyn won’t want to revoke A50 or go to a 2nd referendum but I think his hand will be forced by his cabinet allies. We’re now reaching a situation where the only 2 true pro-Brexit holdouts in the shadow cabinet are Ian Lavery and Rebecca Long-Bailey *Everyone* else – McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry etc – is pro-2nd referendum. And they will end up saying to Corbyn, “either you back this policy or we will put up a leadership challenger against you on a 2nd ref platform, and – given that the Labour membership is massively pro-Remain – he would lose in that situation. He’s backed into a corner, really, and it’s only the continuation of Seamus Milne and Karie Murphy in his office that’s stopping him from endorsing a 2nd referendum already. It’s just a matter of time.
That’s my reading of the most likely scenario, anyway.
Howard
I think you draw the failtlines cor ectothermic from all I hear
But I think they will prevent that confidence and supply motion from the SNP on grounds Labour would accept – which is bound to be an Indyref 2 – and Scottish Labour is intensely opposed. That is my concern
Richard
Quite possible, if the polls are anything to go by, that Scottish Labour MPs may be counted on one hand, if not one finger, and thus have even less clout than at present – the Branch Office syndrome.
On the other hand you’ve got Farage sounding out pacts with the Tories.
Or there’s this scenario:
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-way-to-a-clean-brexit-independence-from-scotland/
Good article
I like the idea of England and Wales being Britannia
Howard,
I am assuming that you are assuming that Johnson will be the winner in the Tory leadership race. If that is the case, then you are probably right that there will be an earlyish election. But what if Hunt wins? Then, this particular bet may be off. And No Deal may be still the default because Hunt’s position, such as it is, is a non-goer.
Regarding Corbyn, don’t forget Murray and Fisher. He should dump all four of them, which will never happen. I think his personality has become an impediment to progressing — he seems to me to be as intransigent as May. I don’t think all responsibility for this kind of behavior on his part can be laid at the feet of the four Stalinists. As for Corbyn himself, I used to be a kind of fan, but no longer. He seems to be so inflexible that I don’t think he can do the job.
and yet Bercow thinks he alone will stop Brexit happening…
I hope that No Deal is removed from the table.
I think that Johnson is that unpredictable not even the ERG can count on him.
But I think a No Deal will leave the country completely ungovernable – I really do. I can see many leavers changing their minds and it could very well be the Tories last time in government ever.
It’s like boarding a train that has left the station but you’ve only just realised it’s not your train. Well, we are on it now until the next stop at least. Enjoy the view from the window if you can and get ready for when it stops.