The next Tory leader may not be Prime Minister

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The political journalists of this country seem to be making a common error. I stress, common in the sense that they are all making it. They are assuming that the next leader of the Conservative Party will be the next prime minister. I suggest that may not be true.

I think it true that the person who assumes this dubious office (dubious based on the records of those who have held it, at least in recent decades) will be invited by the Queen to form a government. But, and it’s a very big but, the assumption that they will be able to do so is a very big one.

May lied to the Queen on this issue. She said the DUP Deal was done. It wasn’t. That cost £1bn. I am not at all sure that the Queen will be so readily fooled again. Next time she will require assurance that the new Tory leader can really command a majority in the Commons.

Will the DUP sign up? Who knows what the price will be? 

Will enough Tories sign up? I doubt it. And this time, not newly elected as they were last time, they are likely to say so.

And so, whoever might be Tory leader may not be able to form a government. 

Will Corbyn be able to do so? I doubt he would want to try. 

May might, then, continue in office for much longer than we now expect, until a general election can be called. 

This saga might have much longer to run as yet.