I am looking forward to the euro elections. That is not something I expected to write, but it's true. After yesterday they will tell us more about the mood of the electorate in England, and we need to know.
There has been great deal written on the local election results, and a lot of nonsense said. I see only two trends.
The first is a backlash against austerity. Parties in office, but most especially the Tories in local government, who had no excuses to offer for the cuts they made, were going to suffer yesterday. This local dimension may explain a small part of Labour's failing and potentially a slightly bigger part of the Conservatives.
The second was very obviously Brexit. Maybe the Brexiteers did not vote on Thursday. We will have to find out. But the Remainers appear to have done so. And they punished the Tories not for mishandling Brexit, but for trying to do it at all. And much the same can be said for Labour.
The LibDem vote cannot be explained by anything but Brexit.
The Green vote can be. But I have little doubt at all that their strong pro-Remain position helped. I noticed councils where Green was directly replacing Labour in significant numbers as a result. Lexit was being rejected and a new left chosen in its place.
To pretend that Brexit has not created the new defining issue of our time is just naive: that is what it is. And with the two old main parties plus the Brexit party all chasing a minority of electors who want to leave the EU there is bound to be room for an upsurge in support for smaller Remain parties. And that is exactly what happened.
I suspect that come the euro elections this will be what we will see. And once people believe voting for small parties makes sense and delivers results - as it did yesterday - moulds can be broken. Because those smaller parties are actually offering the chance to vote for something whereas the main parties and Farage are all offering votes against, and nothing in its place, the chance that change can be sustained is high. Negativity is deeply unappealing at the end of the day.
I have more hope. Not on Brexit itself: I remain near certain that will happen and most likely without a deal because of combined Labour and Tory intransigence. Instead my hope is for the chance that Brexit will ultimately be pivotal in creating a new political landscape. And we need it.
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It seems a good chunk of the independents were direct swaps from Conservatives or UKIP. Other does seem to have hidden the leave vote. This rebuke of Brexit narrative I fear will only last till the European election when leavers will be a lot more engaged.
It also seems that the south hasn’t really punished Labour for their Brexit stance at all. The Lib Dem surge was mainly in areas Labour have never had a presence. Not one of their council gains was from Labour. Labour won large numbers of the seats they hoped to win in the South. They lost just 13 seats there.
They lost most heavily in leave areas in the midlands and the north.
Unfortunately means I can’t see them changing their strategy at all. It means they’ll probably double down.
We’re doomed.
Interesting.
This is why we need an analysis of age cohorts. I still suspect that it is only the die-hard inveterate voters who may have turned up. We need to get our heads around this.
Sorry to pipe up again – what I’m suggesting is that the answer lies in getting hold of the dynamics of the younger people’s more pro-EU voting intention.
John Curtice (the pollster) tells us that the Leave/Remain divide is till pretty stable. However he has suggested that there are indications that (1) some Leavers are having second thoughts of the economic impact and (2) people who were not able to vote in 2016 who can vote now would vote Remain on a ratio of 2:1.
These dynamics are why I think Labour should side with Remain. It’s risky but worth it. I would not blame them if they tried.
They have to….
Unless they do they’re over
I totally agree with you (especially your last line).
I have been meditating on this for some time: that the silver lining of BREXIT is that since the FPTP rules were used to define the referendumb result, BREXIT has actually broken the FPTP system; it has reified the democratic deficit in the FPTP system in all is failings.
BREXIT has also issued a challenge to progressive politics itself and I’m going to aim my following comments at the Labour Party (if I may Richard) – comments that I and my partner have levelled at Labour canvassers and candidates alike.
Why does the LP exist? Does it exist for itself or with certain objectives for the people of this country?
If it is the latter, then how can you not join with other progressives who want an end to austerity and to the Nasty Party in order to make a new Britain?
I was listening to a programme on the birth of the SNP on Radio 4 the other day to hear that under Donald Dewar the Labour party apparently sided with the Lib Dems in Scotland – not the SNP at around the time that Scotland was beginning to tackle with devolution. And look at the Labour vote these days. Bad move!
Why? It smacks of old school Westminster centralism.
Of all the party’s Labour has the potential to join with Greens, SNP, etc., to wipe the Tories out.
It must lose its tribalism and even its inner-party exceptionalism that they somehow are the only party who have the answers.
This is why the Tories endure – because they have already rather craftily reached out to the far right and co-opted them into their political operation – think about it?!! The Tories have already potentially expanded their voting base. UKIP and the BREXIT party are Tory without the branding. I have to say that hats off to them – the Tories have played a blinder.
The only way for Labour now is to do the same by co-opting the Greens, nationalist parties and mobilise to get rid of the Tories. And once that is done, KEEP those coalitions together to keep these nasty swine out.
And they need to come off the fence about BREXIT. The time has come I’m afraid for Jeremy and his comrades and the reluctance they demonstrate is not going down well and sullying their potential.
This whole thing is not about the fucking Labour Party Jeremy. It is about England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, our future together and our future in Europe.
It is about the people in these countries who have suffered immense privation and abuse at the hands of their rulers. People you want to help apparently.
It is about delivering us from the Tory party and offering relief to the people of these nations. That is what a political party should exist for.
Get it done. Join hands with others (never mind negotiating with May – you have said no deal is not acceptable – her deal it shite so the answer is obvious – we stay in).
The future of progressive politics is a mixed political economy of parties galvanised by a good leader around common goals.
Or – go back to your allotment and let someone else take over.
This!
I can sort of see why Labour are intent on delivering the bastard Brexit baby along with the Tories as a good proportion of their members have blamed freedom of movement on employment problems (such as Tesco advertising for staff in Poland… allegedly!).
But that implies that they are **only** looking after their members, not the country at large. Yes, just as the Tories are doing, listening to a very small cohort of people engaged in ‘group-think’.
As we can see from their reasoning, the voters at large count for nought!
Labour members do not want Brexit – because they know it does not make sense for Labour’s membership or those Labour says it represents
But Corbyn does not not listen
Yes the European elections will be good as they are held under proportional representation. The good showing of Greens who seem to have broken through in the local elections despite the first past the post system will be able to do even better on May 23rd. As well as putting dealing with climate change as a priority and wanting to remain in the EU and improve the institutions of the EU, this will offer voters the chance to vote for a sane, ecological and humane party knowing that every vote counts.
The Greens got 15% of the vote in one euro election, a long time ago, if I recall correctly
And no, I have not checked. I was just around at the time
Yes I stood for the Greens in Wiltshire in 1989 and got 22%, the 7th highest Green vote in the UK which if the present voting system for the EU was the same as it is now would have meant I would have become an MEP under the party list system. I still stand for local elections, last year on 5% this year 9% – we are getting there……….
Maybe this time….
How do you intend to vote if and when the elections come? Green?
Which election?
The European Parliament ones
I am sure that makes sense to you…
As a moderator it does not to me
I am asking how you intend to vote in the EU elections that will take place on the 23rd of May.
Sorry for the confusion–possibly it comes from the fact I phrased the question ambiguously due to the fact that these elections may still not take place, in the event that someone passes a Withdrawal Agreement before then.
I am planning to vote Green
But I stress, on Thursday last week in two elections I managed to vote for candidates from three parties + independents
Partly this was dictated by circumstances (who was standing), I admit
But what it also says I decide on what is right in the situation and in the euro elections I am entirely happy that a Green vote is appropriate this time
Yes. Just keep voting for neoliberalism. You know it makes sense. You’re all against neoliberalism but you’re all so comfortably off that you’ll keep supporting the neoliberals. So, when is neoliberalism going to end? It’s never going to end because despite all your protests you’re not prepared to do anything about it. Like the toad in the saucepan that’s slowly being heated. Did I hear the words Courageous State mentioned? Thought not.
What on earth are you talking about?
‘Comfortably off’?
‘Neo-liberal’?
Are you on the right blog ‘Rod White’?
There’s no Neo-Libs here.
And our common interest brings together many different income levels.
By 2020 however , under this Tory administration I will have lost an equivalent to nearly 1 year’s take home pay (after tax) because of wage cuts, loss of contractual benefits and below inflation wage rises as result of Tory austerity.
I mean I’m one of the lucky ones – I still have job – but ‘comfortable’ – no way – my job could end at any time and it will if the Tories get for another term.
My job? I develop council housing – affordable housing – for those who cannot afford to own or afford market rents. It is a battle to build as any as people need.
I do not how long we can keep going to be honest with a Government that apparently hates the people it is supposed to serve.
I largely agree, but I think the electoral situation that Labour faces is not as clear cut as some think and wish, as per Alex’s first response, if I understand it right. And of course it’s about the UK, not the Party, but if the party fails, that doesn’t necessarily help the UK! Nor is it only the Conservative Party that needs to be destroyed in an electoral realignment. It’s Farage’s Brexit too, and polarising Labour’s northern and eastern Brexit voters will, it is feared screw Labour as well as the Tories. My Party preference has been Green for some time, but my constituency is either LibDem or, currently with a very strong majority and a vocal Remain Labour MP, Labour. I can’t imagine there will be a realignment left here or in many similar seats. But may be …
There won’t be without trying
The problem for the euro elections and having lots of remain parties is that under the chosen PR system it will split the vote. Dismayed that Change/TIG rejected the offer of working with the Lib Dems and the leaked LD attack brief shows them as driven by ego it seems.
I think the euro elections will sadly see a mass surge for the Brexit party and the remain cause will perform very badly because of vote splitting. It’s a huge failing on the part of Change/TIG, LDs, Greens, SNP not to see the bigger picture and fight off Farage.
I fear we will be look back on this point in history and see it as the moment at which naval gazing and party self interest didn’t address the looming rise of Farage and nationalism.
This comment is not germane to the thread, so my apology is required before proceeding.
I merely wish to record this remarkable observation from the BBC website:
‘Labour’s shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press. The PM has called on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to “put their differences aside” and agree a Brexit deal.
But John McDonnell said she had “blown the confidentiality” of the talks and “jeopardised the negotiations”.’
Should there be an investigation of the leak? Furthermore, who should be sacked for yet another failure of security? Presumably the list of possible new miscreants, outside 10, Downing Street itself, must now be precariously small. Indeed there must now be insufficient numbers of possible victims, adequately to disguise the ‘short straw’ in the draw. Is Theresa May going to run out of scapegoats to sack for the whole mess of Brexit, even before she is literally wrenched from office, no doubt clinging to the door of Downing Street to the bitter end? Or will there be a rush of Ministers to admit the leak, so that in the subsequent election of a new Conservative leader, the guilty party can claim to be the gallant, independent minded and public-spirited politician who was sacked for insubordination by someone who is likely to go down in contemporary political culture as the worst PM in living memory (and that award alone is ‘saying something’).
🙂