Much as I'd like to find a silver lining in Labour's decision on Brexit yesterday I can't. If the policy is to a) get a deal if prefers (which won't happen) or b) a general election (which it cannot decide upon) or, only then, c) a People's Vote then Labour has knowingly become a Brexit party.
Let's be clear: May's Deal is dead.
So is a compromise deal: there are ample Tories who will vote against it, as will many in Labour.
That then will leave the Tories wasting months looking for a new leader.
If that does not waste all the time until 31 October then votes of no confidence in the new Prime Minister will instead, with the DUP probably withholding their support for the Tories this time.
So a general election will happen, but because others chose it. And what yesterday's vote makes very clear is that in such an election Labour will be a Brexit party. That's clearly what Corbyn wants.
In that case the idea that Labour will ever allow rally allow the option of a People's Vote is not on their proverbial, and deeply annoying, table. It's a pretence that it is.
This has three consequences. First, for a lot of people it is going to make voting Labour very hard indeed.
Second, it is likely going to deliver hard Brexit. I do not think anything is guaranteed on this issue, but this now looks 90% likely because all likely major party leaders actively want it: all they are seeking is to avoid the blame for it.
Third, this means that the political disruption continues. Scotland will depart, because the major English parties have nothing to say in response to the SNP there. Northern Ireland will move that way too. And in the chaos of post-hard-Brexit England and Wales there will have to be political realignments, in which the ‘keep it as it was and hand the power back to the markets, small c conservative' Change Party is not a viable option.
When the history of this era comes to be written Labour's decision to abandon Remain voters yesterday, when it could have provided itself with a solid platform of support and Remainers in England and Wales with a short-term viable political choice, will, I think, be seen as pivotal in the collapse of both Labour and Tory parties and politics as we have known it.
That collapse is what I expect now. And it's because neither Labour or Tory leaderships have a clue about what they want that can also in any way appeal to a party, let alone the electorate. The old politics of the twentieth century is dead. Now we await the new.
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Some I talk to think that Labour are being very canny.
I have to be honest and say that I now do not know what to think. This is very high risk ‘canny’.
The best I can say is that there is still a lot of uncertainty about and I think what people are gravitating towards is wanting certainty of some kind (either Remain of Leave).
And Labour it seems have no intention of providing it. They are not going to be the cavalry for Remainers and save the day.
Thinking now about what might happen if they get in and the paucity of ideas they have on potential policy – this seems to be at least consistent with their lily livered approach to political opposition.
So Labour do not really have the answer either to our problems now or going forward.
If the Tories are the party of bad ideas, Labour seems to be the party of no ideas.
In fact I know what I think now; I agree with you. Labour are a load of tripe and this sort of politics is actually the end of politics as we know it.
Very good points you raise here.
Richard
Wouldn’t a flat remain position or even people’s vote position also mean for a lot of people make voting Labour very hard indeed?
I believe you’ve written about how a case could be made to the large chunk of labour leave voters that they were wrong to think that way, but the case seems to me to have been made to them time and time again to very little effect. The polls for the European elections seem to show the appetite for leave as strong as ever.
If, as you say, we are headed to a general election, my feeling is their current position costs them in the south but perhaps not to the benefit of the Conservatives, whilst the position you advocate probably leads to a an actual Conservative majority in parliament, with the likelihood of those new Tory MP’s being even more likely to force no deal.
I share your fear that no deal seems the most likely option and am horrified at the thought of what that will bring, but unlike you I don’t think Labour coming out as a remain party would lessen those odds in any meaningful way.
Those who really want Brexit are going elsewhere anyway
What Labour is ensuring is that there is no party for Remainers – and most of their members are Remainers
If that’s democracy I am German, and I am not
members/voters – not the same constituency.
But you are a tedious old man..
If you say so….
At least I do not, unlike you, troll under numerous identities
Gene says:
“But you are a tedious old man…..”
Sixty is not old you cocky young whippersnapper !
“What Labour is ensuring is that there is no party for Remainers”.
This seems to me the central point. Leaving Scotland to one side (only too often the standard position of the Union, sadly), 48% of the British electorate voted Remain. Most of the evidence is that 48% now understates the current position. Yet neither of the two so-called ‘electable’ British parties (i.e., likely to form a British Government) is prepared to support Remain. Instead both are fighting over the entitlement to represent a probably shrinking Brexit constituency; but certainly a shrill, increasingly belligerent, hectoring, angry constituency, that at the margin even flirts with extreme views. A constituency, moreover, whose core is the old and not the young; the past and not the future; and a constituency that is prepared to ride roughshod over an essentially fragile constitution – and the fundamental Rights of Remainers.
I shall lose my EU citizenship, my right to freedom of movement and to visit or live in 28 European countries over this – Brexiteers simply do not understand; this is not just politics, this is personal: my Rights do not belong to Brexiteers, simply to dispose of as they see fit because they voted for it. I expect the State to defend my Rights, not to dispose of them; and certainly not to dispose of them on a narrow 52/48 vote, by a Government that can’t even govern. It is outrageous. It is unacceptable.
I am appalled at what Brexit, specifically the Brexiteers in the Conseravtive Party who caused this, have done to Britain. These are not people who are defending democracy; but who are trying to enforce on all of us, an elective dictatorship. Nobody else is responsible, although it seems the Labour Party is now content to be dragged along in the baggage train.
Your penultimate para is spot on
The answer is simple, and available – Revoke Article 50 NOW!!
The infantilism of Westminster’s current politics offers no excuse to delay.
I agree: that is the answer
Agreed to all of that. I especially agree with the name you give this new political set up: an elective dictatorship. A selective dictatorship too.
Remain has no home now, apart from parties which are on the edges of this new Order.
I’m angry my Rights will be curtailed by fraudsters and liars. I do not, repeat, do not, respect this referendum and never will.
I’m even more angry that my children will have fewer Rights and Freedoms than I’ve had because of it.
I’m angry that the fight against climate change which is gaining momentum all over the world, including in the EU, will be compromised by this Brexit shower, because all our resources and energy will be used up to survive rather than invest in collaborative research and investments to stop decline.
On the First of May, the struggle for Workers’ Rights and for the protection of the Earth has been weakened by a small-minded and blinkered Labour Party which had a chance to turn things around. Shame on them.
I must confess that I did not invent the term “elective dictatorship”. It is with some trepidation, however (given recollection of your past comments), that I have to acknowledge that it was first formulated, as far as I know, by Quinton Hogg, Lord Hailsham.
While the politics are interesting, decisions of this magnitude need to be taken in the best interests of the country. The reason why people are gravitating to the polemic is because uncertainty is killing us.
A confirmation vote is the only democratic tool available to solve this mess.
I am a Labour member from the Midlands living in the south who won’t be voting Labour.
As the original post highlights I want to stay and fight for real Labour not hard Labour but getting fed up.
Whenever I hear Jeremy Corbyn speak, I am fairly impressed by what he says, (and the way he says it) but my heart sinks to see him wasting his time trying to drag a fatally divided Labour party with him.
I’ve said before that the only good thing that might emerge from the Brexit debacle is an honest re-alignment of political parties.
Sadly I can’t see how that will happen as long as we are saddled with FPTP elections.
I’m expecting no significant movement on Brexit until we get to the new brink, sometime too late, in October.
Even the mainstream media is losing interest in Brexit.
The number of times I hear people say they don’t care any longer what the result is, as long as we get one, and soon, sums up the extent to which this whole issue has been shrouded in confusion and ignorance.
The Labour Party is not divided on this issue
82% are Remain
Corbyn is ignoring them
So much for the man for the members
I got him very wrong
But realised in 2016
So did I, Richard. But it took me longer than you to come to a decision that I could no longer support this guy. I am even thinking of leaving the Labour Party, so pissed off am I with Corbyn’s seeming indecision and deafness to what is going on around him. He seems never to have left behind his ’70s CP mindset, something even Soviet globalists moved away from before the collapse. This renders him comparable to May in that they are both quite rigid in their thinking. Infuriating.
You hit the nail on the head
Today’s revelations even worry me for the first time on the anti-semitism front: it’s very hard to think how he missed it and that needs better explanation
One wonders what more there is left to say. However, while the entire process has been disastrously mismanaged by both the major parties to the detriment of the nation’s general well-being and international reputation, maybe there is a sliver of a silver lining in that it will lead to some political reform. If there is no appetite for PR after this then there is no hope for future stability. Hope springs eternal.
How it will eventually shake down is very difficult to predict other than a prolonged period of socio-economic instability. The only certainty is uncertainty – which tends to play more into the hands of the Right than the Left. I’m not sure what it means in the longer term, but a week ago the BP was averaging 14% in the polls – half the Tory share (https://pollofpolls.eu/GB). Unhappily for many progressives a Corbynesque ‘Lexit’ was never going to be more than a pipe dream. So, time to batten down the hatches?
Re the last, yes….
I’m not sure I see how any of this can lead to PR or constitutional change. The right are getting their way under FPTP. Why would they jeopardise that?
but will the Tories collapse?
Adrian says:
“I’m not sure I see how any of this can lead to PR or constitutional change. The right are getting their way under FPTP. Why would they jeopardise that?”
For as long as that situation persists, they won’t.
The right has long benefitted from vote division on the left, to the extent that Tories in the UK have only lost to Labour when they have been in disarray and their vote has stayed home. If the right vote splits significantly PR may become more attractive. UKIP would have won seats.
Ukip winning seats would actually have been a good thing because it would have precluded the need for Cameron to try and diffuse their influence by incorporating their agenda and the Brexit referendum might a) never have happened or b) fallen out quite differently.
The abject failure of the Lib Dems to secure a fair referendum on PR coupled with Labour’s complacent and misplaced hubris in not supporting it, was IMO far more significant than the Brexit referendum. With PR, the Brexit referendum probably wouldn’t have happened.
We have just seen it with the SNP Conference on currency. The way a political party should work is that the party members collectively agree on the policy of the party and you then go out and sell your proposals to the electorate. If that were the case in Labour then they would unquestionably be a remain party. Of course that isn’t how it happens in the Tory Party where the members are irrelevant canon fodder and ignored on almost everything. What is not supposed to happen is the leadership having a look at which way the wind is blowing (or their personal opinions) and coming up with some policies that are completely at odds with the membership.
I think Labour need to decide if they are the Party of the Future with their potential huge appeal to the under 40s, or the Party of the Past and worry about elderly Brexit minded Labour voters in the north (of England). The first option has a future for the Labour Party, the second sees it die out within a generation.
Tim, I watched some of the SNP conference last night and it has a really good, vibrant atmosphere. I also chatted with an attendee briefly & they had said it was ‘fantastic’ (his first time at conference). By having all sorts of speakers and making policy choices by vote, it seems to have turned into a truly democratic party. It keeps the leadership’s egos from taking over I think, and prevents the elitist divide we see in other parties. Labour seem like a lost cause to me, they are part of the establishment and have too much to lose if they changed anything – how long have they been promising to ‘abolish the House of Lords ‘ now??
The whole system needs to change, two parties and first past the post are dark ages stuff, Labour, or any establishment party, are never going to willingly change it though.
Your expectation of disruption continuing, possibly with an election and a hard Brexit is clearly entirely possible, if depressing. One just wishes there was at least one leading politician with the cohones to say to the public that the three years of negotiation trying to achieve the Brexit fantasy which was offered at the referendum has ‘respected’ the (narrow) referendum result. Since all the Brexits now on offer – hard, soft , and no deal will all weaken our economy , and involve several more years of negotiations – with the EU, and 40+ other countries, the only way out is to revoke Article 50, so we can get back to running the country. It is an argument, it has some logic, but no one will stand up and say it.
In fairness, Vince Cable does, but no one is listening
So is the SNP
And Caroline Lucas
Richard,
If, as you say, “Scotland will depart” the UK as a result of Brexit (and perhaps with another referendum on Scottish independence) then should Scotland remain within the EU while England departs, a border will be created between these two counties of a kind that has never existed before.
Are there people working on the implications of this? Have they published?
That will be an unfo0rtunate consequence
But let’s be clear: it will be England’s choice
And I strongly suspect England will buy more from Scotland than vice versa in due course – and direct import to Scotland from the EU will rise
“And I strongly suspect England will buy more from Scotland than vice versa in due course — ”
I think that highly probable given the disparity in population size. I would be surprised if that is not currently the case; though the UK government is trying to hide the fact by planting union flags stickers on Scottish produce with gay, but not unobserved, abandon.
A current slogan is ‘If it’s got a Jack, put it back’. This is not anti English …it’s anti pretending Scottish produce has no valid provenance except ‘British’.
Sod that for a game of imperialist soldiers! Marks and Sparks ‘British Whisky’ really let the cat out of that bag. The UK government does not protect its producers and post Brexit is hardly likely to oppose the production and sale of ‘American Scotch’. (Lightly chlorinated of course !! )
“Scotland the Brand” is an important initiative to protect Scottish farmers and other producers.
David, I’ve got some excellent ideas regarding a nice border: grand architecture, sweeping bridges, lots of fountains and sculptures. We can make luxurious stopover areas where you can do shopping, catch a film, eat etc if you need any customs checks, or just want to hang out, and fairly priced accommodation for lorry drivers. It could regenerate the local economy in border areas (on both sides) and form tourist attractions, and hopefully improve transport links. It’ll be GREAT! And definitely not like it was ever before. Obviously there will be itty-bitty detail stuff like passes for regular travellers and tariff rates and stuff, and we’ll have to design some nice uniforms for customs people, but the politicians can deal with the boring bits.
Richard – don’t hold your breath as you await change in the political sphere. In fact ‘waiting’ might not be that productive – but you never know. The politicians are so out of touch with reality, I doubt any of them even realise or think anything will change. I think change is a long shot. Here we have Pete Wishart MP – SNP MP – saying he’s going to apply to become speaker if the position comes up, to try and effect change in the Houses of Parliament – that seems like a very big long shot – why has he announced this? No idea, it implies he plans to stay in Westminster for a while and some of us would hope that wasn’t the case. Anyway, his proposed reforms seem noble in intent, but hardly the sweeping changes the uk needs:
https://petewishart.wordpress.com/2019/05/01/the-speaker-of-the-house-of-commons/
I admit it is an odd move from an SNP MP
A really good read. Watching from outside Europe, I’m staggered with Labour’s approach. Surely there are more remain voters to lose than hard Brexit voters – that has been well and truly demonstrated. Remain partys just can’t get their act together at a crucial time in this saga. Mind you, I’ve thought the ‘crucial time’ thing many times before.
We, whoever that is, seem to rally to the flag, or more recently to the acronym.
Can I suggest REXIT -revoke article 50- ?
I no longer support Labour because of their sluggish response to the climate issue which is far more threatening than BREXIT.
So where is the activism to come from to resolve the EU exit? And can someone pick up and run with the notion that BREXIT stands for broken exit.
🙂