I have to do Brexit. Again. Even though, as I noted on Twitter yesterday, it's now beginning to make me feel nauseous.
What did May do yesterday? As usual, apart from the agreed fact that she locked the cabinet up for many hours, no one knows.
So let me offer my interpretation.
First she made an offer that was obviously absurd. It was pre-conditioned on passing her deal. That is not going to happen, most certainly without a second referendum. And she said she wanted no EU elections, but any deal makes them unavoidable now. So she alienated Labour and the EU from the outset.
Second, then, is she really just going for No Deal and pretending otherwise? It's possible. But I doubt it. If that was the case she could have just gone with the ERG now. And no one will be deceived by her offer if it is one the EU cannot accept - as it is right now - and so failure will not stick to Corbyn which is what many think is her hope. So I think she is genuine in reaching out for compromise.
Third, that must imply she realises the Tories are beyond redemption.
And, fourth, that No Deal is really so bad any deal is better than it.
And, fifth, that even means she will now compromise.
Of course that is too late. And likely to fail. She has no record in success. That's the biggest reason for failure. She simply does not know how to deliver anything else.
But it does throw Corbyn a difficult scenario. And Labour cannot walk away. For that they would be blamed. And they know it. And so too do the Cabinet. That's why I think there have been no cabinet resignations. As I tweeted this morning:
There have been no cabinet resignations. But 14 opposed May. Why not? Was it
A) They're waiting
B) They're cowards
C) They finally realise how terrible Brexit will be
D) They're paralysed by fear as a result, or
E) They're praying Corbyn will save them all?
I actually think it is the last, but that when he doesn't the resignations will follow because May will then get the blame for trying.
And what should Corbyn do? As I also tweeted:
If I was visiting May tomorrow what would my redlines be?
1) Her deal is not an option
2) Common market 2.0 is
3) There must be People's Vote, come what may
4) Long extension
5) Must be binding with EU
6) No deal is off the agenda
7) She goes
8) agreed election date.
All are reasonable. She has offered to go, for example. And the EU has to hold her to account.
But will she agree? I doubt it. Very much.
And given the Commons is trying the hopeless Letwin/Cooper Bill which is truly awfully drafted, I rate No Deal at 90% now.
Our future has never looked so grim. No wonder I feel nauseous.
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It seems that the ‘It’s Corbyn’s fault’ trope is gathering speed already this morning but even worse the ERG and other hard Leavers are making out that Corbyn’s involvement is akin to a coup.
Apparently Corbyn is repellent to many – more repellent than austerity, food banks and rises in female mortality as revealed by Danny Dorling recently.
Absurd.
Agreed
Because he’s a Marxist
Which says it all
And, for the record, I’m not, although I understand why some are
I’m not sure Corbyn has ever claimed to be a Marxist? It’s one of those things which he has been asked about and fobbed it off.
Not that this stops right-wingers claiming he is far to the left of Lenin.
I know McDonnell has claimed he is one, though he’s also claimed many other things in his time as well and the policy positions of the party definitely aren’t Marxist!
Regardless, I don’t think any of them are interested in a Marxist state, just a more sensible one with state intervention at reasonable levels and natural monopolies such as transport, power and water treated as such.
I’m interested to know what is wrong with being a Marxist
And I do mean, a Marxist
I suspect most people who use the term have no clue
P.S.
I agree and hope that your eight points about Corbyn’s ‘intervention’ come to pass. OK – if Labour have said they will respect the Leave vote in their manifesto – fair do’s but they seem to have always stuck with a soft BREXIT which is the only saving grace to me from this whole mess.
On my trip to Swindon yesterday looking supply chains and consortia, people were talking about it all of the time. It affects everything.
Even now, Tories discussing the Corbyn involvement are still saying that he’d ruin the country with his policies. When will the Tories realise that this slagging off of a possible partner will not help bring the country together at this time? This whole fracas is as much about anti-Corbynism as it is anti -EU. The Tories are just a mess – they have lost their composure completely as you suggest.
In the light of her many previous deceptions I find it impossible to accept anything she says at face value, there’s always a twist in her double speak.
Ian Dunt has an interesting take on Mays speech, I think it make a valuable contribution to yesterdays announcement. https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/04/02/no-10-statement-look-out-for-theresa-may-s-no-deal-trap?fbclid=IwAR2FOKhtZ-vl8zRquYA_tlVjiQak493Z4YXcf1KvEsnVOSEXt0Xm1ohyYRU
Dunt is compelling.
When I heard the sentence about avoiding the Euro elections alarm bells started ringing and I just saw it for what it is: another bloody red line that is masquerading as something more reasonable. So you could call it a booby trap.
This is not politics in my view. This is more akin to the win/lose ethos of red blooded American capitalism.
Geoff, I agree entirely. Ian Dunt is making my point – and in some detail. He might have added the ceaseless deployment of the definite article with reference to the words “withdrawal agreement”, indicating on every occasion that there is zero indication of any intention to change the red lines which have made it impossible for May’s deal to pass the Commons. Indeed, perhaps the biggest ‘give-away’ that nothing is being given away is that she has pretty well given up on getting the DUP’s votes, which are beyond her reach precisely because of her maintained red lines and the consequent Irish back-stop.
The suggestion that dear David Lidington writing to election officers to ask them to be ready for the possibility of elections is plainly less than honest dealing; it is surely no more than the flimsiest of fig-leaves to hint at an genuine approach to the UK readying itself for the European Elections, if “the” withdrawal agreement process had not been completed in time for a 22 May UK departure. Neither Macron nor Merkel are dosey enough to buy that one.
In addition, the deployment of the mendacious claim that she had “always been clear that we could make a success of no deal” showed, more or less in plain sight, that this bludgeon remains not only in her armoury – but is one that she is perfectly at ease with actually turning to, if all else fails her. That last phrase is the one that keeps me awake. All of this is perilously wound into and through her own political and personal ego – and rather than confront her own demons, she will happily throw us to into the pit. Never have I so longed to be shown to be wrong.
why/how is this woman in politics?
Is this the Peter principle writ as large as can be?
One resorts to the old cliches, “megalomania”, “too little too late”, because they are tired but true. Do these people in power ever undertake any training in management? It looks like management by dictatorship – it’s all about me and what I want. If this government, this Cabinet had been a hospital or a school they’d have sacked the lot and sent in a rescue team by now and the inspectors would have been apoplectic in their condemnation of management failures – failure to have a plan, failure to consult, failure to get a broad church of interested parties on board, and not just political parties, but civil society groups as well, failure to compromise, failure to seek consensus, failure to be realistic, failure to deal with the bullies in the background.
The UK has been sacrificed by the successive failures of Conservative prime ministers and their cronies for copping out of dealing with the wreckers in their own party, who should have been told to get out and de-selected. But no, in an act of utter self-indulgent stupidity Cameron went for a referendum, saying he was a “winner” and then disappeared when the electorate spat in his face. So we get May, who went into politics, apparently, to make a difference, but it’s been all about her, her interpretation of the “will of the people”, her interpretation of democracy, her red lines, her strategy (if it can be called that), her plan and finally her choice with whom to negotiate a way forward (Corbyn) – and to hell with all the other parts of the UK and the millions who voted against this and the millions denied a vote and the millions who didn’t vote or the possibility that maybe the facts have changed.
One fears for the health of the people.
I have found that there is now one thing that unites us remainers and the BREXIT supporters. None of us now has any respect for parliament or government.
My view we need an election and none of the existing MPs should stand.
Do you know we now have home-grown pro-BREXIT terrorists planting bombs on the railway?
Does anyone remember mad cow disease and CJD? Have we all become infected?
According to the Evening Standard’s, Joe Murphy, the Corbyn invite was only revealed to the Cabinet when Theresa May summed up and the original plan – presumably to be followed when May and Corbyn don’t do their own deal – is AV votes, but not as I think you would wish them, Richard. They are alledged to be on May’s deal/Corbyn’s deal (presumably some agreed {?} version of some past Labour proposals)/Revoke/No deal. This list almost certainly, unless Corbyn makes a public vote part of Labour’s ‘deal’, is designed to exclude any chance of a public vote/referendum. If Corbyn does not include a public vote in his proposals to go to the House – he will be as guilty as May and will have made the ‘People’s Party’ complicit in suppressing the people’s voice.
Meanwhile, Juncker has made it clear, yet again, that there is no extension beyond April 12 without the UK’s participation in the EU Elections.
“Nothing has changed” – and May is still hell-bent (I use the term advisedly) on either getting ‘her’ deal or no deal.
The scandal of this is, above all, is that it is an intentional denial of democracy. The reason that there is no sign of a public vote is that May and her government know that what they are doing is against the much trumpeted “will of the people”. The polls are clear, repeated and consistent. Here are circumstances in which the usual politican’s formula for evading commenting on polls would die on their lips. How could they parrot “The only poll that matters will be on…..”? They are deliberately and with guilty knowledge aforethought going to do massive damage to “the people” – and they will not let them speak.
This is that elective dictatorship of which so many have warned. It is appalling. It is shaming – and its results will be a disaster… but not for the rich. I could not be more angry, nor more disgusted.
If Corbyn acts in that way watch for the rise of the Greens
I agree, Richard – for voters south of the Border, what else remains?
I wish I knew
… Varoufakis and DiEM25… they’re fielding candidates for the EU elections and support the green New Deal and EU reform… the problem with the UK Green Party is they would have to jump into bed with somebody else to gain a majority…