I have to do Brexit. Again. Even though, as I noted on Twitter yesterday, it’s now beginning to make me feel nauseous.
What did May do yesterday? As usual, apart from the agreed fact that she locked the cabinet up for many hours, no one knows.
So let me offer my interpretation.
First she made an offer that was obviously absurd. It was pre-conditioned on passing her deal. That is not going to happen, most certainly without a second referendum. And she said she wanted no EU elections, but any deal makes them unavoidable now. So she alienated Labour and the EU from the outset.
Second, then, is she really just going for No Deal and pretending otherwise? It’s possible. But I doubt it. If that was the case she could have just gone with the ERG now. And no one will be deceived by her offer if it is one the EU cannot accept - as it is right now - and so failure will not stick to Corbyn which is what many think is her hope. So I think she is genuine in reaching out for compromise.
Third, that must imply she realises the Tories are beyond redemption.
And, fourth, that No Deal is really so bad any deal is better than it.
And, fifth, that even means she will now compromise.
Of course that is too late. And likely to fail. She has no record in success. That’s the biggest reason for failure. She simply does not know how to deliver anything else.
But it does throw Corbyn a difficult scenario. And Labour cannot walk away. For that they would be blamed. And they know it. And so too do the Cabinet. That’s why I think there have been no cabinet resignations. As I tweeted this morning:
There have been no cabinet resignations. But 14 opposed May. Why not? Was it
A) They’re waiting
B) They’re cowards
C) They finally realise how terrible Brexit will be
D) They’re paralysed by fear as a result, or
E) They’re praying Corbyn will save them all?
I actually think it is the last, but that when he doesn’t the resignations will follow because May will then get the blame for trying.
And what should Corbyn do? As I also tweeted:
If I was visiting May tomorrow what would my redlines be?
1) Her deal is not an option
2) Common market 2.0 is
3) There must be People’s Vote, come what may
4) Long extension
5) Must be binding with EU
6) No deal is off the agenda
7) She goes
8) agreed election date.
All are reasonable. She has offered to go, for example. And the EU has to hold her to account.
But will she agree? I doubt it. Very much.
And given the Commons is trying the hopeless Letwin/Cooper Bill which is truly awfully drafted, I rate No Deal at 90% now.
Our future has never looked so grim. No wonder I feel nauseous.