It was always going to happen. One day the world was going to wake up and say ‘what the heck are we doing trying to leave the EU?' And we would descend into chaos as a result.
That day has arrived. It's later than I expected. It's more unmanageable than it should have been as a consequence. The blame can fairly be laid at Theresa May's door. And that makes little difference right now, excepting the fact that quote bizarrely she remains in office. The truth is that the UK is in the worst constitutional and international relations crisis almost anyone alive (and certainly in government) can recall. That has potential untold economic and social consequences. And apparently no one saw it coming.
In itself the inability of politicians and the commentariat to foresee this is telling. The intransigence that has led to this situation has been apparent for a long time. It started at Lancaster House and has continued ever since.
And now the reality has really hit. And it is rightly said that we have no obvious way out of the situation that we (or at least Theresa May) has created. It is entirely possible that we will crash out of Europe as a result. Indeed, that seems the most likely outcome to me. And yet we still have no obvious political opposition.
Was Labour demanding parliament sit all this coming weekend to deal with this situation as yesterday's fiasco unfurled? No, it wasn't.
Was it demanding that emergency legislation be tabled now to address the issue? No, it wan't.
Was it even very obviously backing one of the routes forward that the EU has offered, such as a second referendum? Again, no it wasn't: it did not agree on that approach with the leaders of the four political parties that asked it to do so.
Has it published its own route through this crisis, saying what it wants to happen and when to prevent us crashing out? No, it hasn't.
And whilst May has to take responsibility for this crisis, and nothing will prevent that being true, it has to be said that Labour's failure to offer any coherent response to this is deeply disturbing. For it to keep talking about custom union variations right now is just absurd: the time for that passed a long time ago.
There are now five options. One is May's deal. It is not going to happen, and needs an extension anyway, and none will be given for it.
The second is a People's Vote, for which an extension would be given. And a second referendum might bring closure. I stress, might.
The third is a general election: Labour would lose and no party would get a majority. It is not a plan for Labour, or anything else.
Fourth is crash out, which will be a disaster if it happens. The scale of that is hard to guess, but it will be hideous.
And fifth is the one option available to us to which the EU cannot object, which is revocation. This could still be done next week.
And in the light of all that happens only one plan really makes sense, and that is revocation. And there is only one backstop, which is a People's Vote.
Nothing else works now. The Tories are incapable. Labour could still claim some credit from this, when it has gained very little at present. If it was to offer a route through it could be seen as competent. But it has to say what it will do, and demand that parliament sit continuously now to deliver it, if it is to achieve any goal. And there is no sign it will do that.
In which case, crashing out, here we come.
Bring on economic suicide. It's what our politicians apparently want for us.
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There is an option not mentioned – which is to have another people’s vote.
That is my option 2
I get the impression that the whole of the Tory Westminster clique (and to some extend Labour as well), are led by the tabloid press headlines and assumes that perception represents the population at large. They also fail to comprehend the urgency and seriousness of the situation: to them, it is all a parlour game, never having had exposure to ‘real life’ such as a job where you are assessed. For this group, things will carry on as before, private schools, private healthcare etc etc.
If the worst does come to pass, then there will be the 48% of angry people/voters who have been ignored and the other 52% who have been led down the garden path. A recipe for unrest like we have not seen for decades when medicine and food shortages kick in.
You know I always thought the advent of the internet/WWW giving the ability to share ‘facts’ would lead to some sort of ‘enlightenment’..LOL.
Maybe, having spent centuries stealing other people’s wealth and killing millions in the process, this is simply karmic justice. “Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad”.
The first prerequisite – staring everyone in the face since the decision in the Scottish Court of Session, I believe – is to WITHDRAW Article 50, which is no more than the equivalent of a driver jamming on the brakes to prevent s collision.
To be talking about ANYTHING else is to miss the point. A couple of months ago Gordon Brown suggested suspending (= effectively withdrawing) Article 50, to be followed by at least 12 months of discussions – at a LOCAL level, be it noted – of what people wanted, with emphasis on discussion taking place ACROSS the BREXIT divide, in the hope that opponents would understand each others’ arguments and POVs, but also allowing REAL information to be provided. Never, on hearing this proposal, have I more regretted Brown’s absence from No. 10 and his replacement by Cameron – at whose door the current mess lies (even if made 10 times worse by those who followed him).
Alas, you are right, Richard, and Corbyn’s Labour have missed the point, and the moment. If May now acts decisively, and withdraws Article 50, I believe she’d get the 100+ majority she thought she’d get in 2017 – especially as any such election would probably be under the Tories’ new, gerrymandered Commons and constituencies.
you keep saying labour will lose a general election
No they will not !!
every single day that passes the remorseless demographics of the uk work vastly in their favour……Roughly 750,000 people will turn 18 yrs old each year
so come june this year there will be 1.5 million more young people eligible to vote since last general election.
further more roughly one million of over 60s will have died, a combined swing of 2.5 million.
now given the voting patern of the most recent general election the tory party are only ahead of labour in the over forty five age group and older…whereas labour is more popular with under 45s and wildly popular with under 30s which becomes a stunning 80% to 20% in labour favour with the under 25s…..
SEE GRAPH….
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VGX9hQIQ5EU/W7S5hALif-I/AAAAAAAAHVo/5Any5otVdoMKrpaxn4yU-9QT15Ud7MtegCLcBGAs/s1600/Demographics%2Battitudes%2Bashcroft.jpg
The problem of course is that the Tories know they have nothing to offer the younger generations except more austerity, more wage repression, more under-investment in infrastructure and services, more privatisation and commodification of the education system, more cuts to the social safety net, more unsustainable house price inflation, and more of the kind of regressive hard-right ultranationalism that attracted the vile blue-kip demographic to the Tory party in 2017.
You seem to ignore the fact that the 45 swing point has always been there
People switch allegiance as they get older
Not all do
But the fact is that older people are more conservative (large and small c)
In that case your logic does not work, at least as you suggest it does
Research supports the view that in aggregate voting intentions are not altered by younger people graduating to voting age, and older voters dying https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910
Thanks
peter says:
“….you keep saying labour will lose a general election
No they will not !!..”
They might lose. It could easily happen. Much will depend on mainstream media coverage, and how both main parties handle the next few weeks or months…..irrespective of how long the present government survives.
Both Labour and Tory parties are in a very fragile condition, riven by internal tensions. And with leadership question marks.
‘None of the above’ would be in a strong position to beat either main party as things stand presently 🙁
There is no obvious leader for ‘None of the above’, except Caroline Lucas and I don’t think she has a cat in hell’s chance, unfortunately. That would require seismic shifts of opinion and virtual meltdown of both main parties.
Possible, but vanishingly improbable. 🙁
I can’t remember how long ago I came to this same conclusion.
It’s many months; and predates the judgement that we can legally revoke Article 50, without penalty; I thought it the rational solution do so even if we lost ground and had to give-up some of our, hard won, bespoke membership concessions.
At this stage in the proceedings it’s a no-brainer. It doesn’t prevent in any way, except by dint of a worsened relationship with our neighbour governments resulting from our intransigence and lack of political nous, the continuous process of making the EU function better for all its members.
The UK (I would say England, I’m afraid, with its ‘Little Englander’ tin foil hat on) is suffering from the same sort of pathology that infects the US. Delusions of grandeur, and a pompous intent to solve other nations perceived problems whilst neglecting to fix the roof at home.
Our parliamentary representatives are collectively failing us miserably while they fight amongst themselves like rats in a sack.
suggested option:
revoke article 50, 52/48 was pretty much a tie and sending the article 50 letter was grossly presumptuous especially considering there wasn’t any form of exit plan in existence.
schedule another referendum for 5yrs time with the proviso of a clear voting threshold of say 60/40 for it to pass, either way, and the Leave option of the vote to be represented by a Exit plan to be formulated over the coming 5yrs.
if the ‘say 60/40’ threshold isn’t reached, leave or remain, then another referendum to be scheduled another 5yrs down the road.
only ever vote on a specific proposal, only ever accept an agreed margin of ‘win’
parliament is apparently incapable of dealing with anything more complex than binary decisions, so only present it with binary decisions.
To me, the whole issue is dominated by FEAR.
Fear is being used as a weapon – witness May’s use of no deal to try to ensure she remains the queen of BREXIT.
Then there is the apparent fear of reprisals if BREXIT is stopped. Why are our politicians more squeamish these days when we cast our minds back to how striking miners and other workers were treated as they fought for their jobs and communities? They were treated as the enemy within. Tell me – if that is the case, what does that make the far Right in this country who it said will rise up in anger?
Labour are also dominated by fear – that if Corbyn makes even the slightest miscalculation that the foes in his own party will fall upon him with renewed vigour.
And if Labour were to be more assertive, I’m sure that they would be ripped to shreds by the largely right wing media, hence the over cautious approach to the whole thing.
The truth of the matter is that the practice of divide and conquer, the never ending parading of the EU before us as something to be despised and confronted, laissez faire social policy, market fundamentalism – all this has done is what other commentators have said – it has made the country ungovernable.
For the Left – it is a tragic disaster because too many people think that no one cares for them. The Left has no option but to look to MMT, GND, taxation policy etc as promoted here.
But the Right – even though they are too thick to see it – are even worse because all they have been doing since 1979 is peeing in the wind. Now, not even they cannot rule properly, as society’s ‘Id’ has been released – its dark appetites the Tory party will not be able to satisfy alonez
Many of us may end being collateral damage for what might happen. But maybe the suffering will make us reflect and even though there maybe more surprises around the corner.
Peter’s assertion they Labour will not lose fails to take into account their abject performance in opposition in the last 3 years. Jeremy Corbyn wants Brexit as much as May and the ERG do and that is why The Labour Party has failed to oppose. Labour is trying to game the system as much as the Tories.
As everyone agrees this is a constitutional crisis and there is a likelihood civil unrest and the refusal of many to vote at all.
Where you have a near 50:50 split in opinion half of your population will be disappointed whatever way the final outcome swings. That is a recipe for the failure of our brand of democracy and there will be a period of transition to something else. Let’s hope it isn’t a form of strong man politics riding on slogans of the need to restore order and ‘making Britain great again’.
Forget Labour as a governing party at Westminster – they have lost, irrevocably, the Scottish vote.
Revoking Article 50 – From Edinburgh I can only say “Told you so!” (but who listens to us?)
Constitutional change? We can help you there too.
“Fourth is crash out”
No Deal Brexit may be unlawful. Leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March 2019 is not the “legal default”, as has been repeatedly, but wrongly, asserted. It would, in fact, be in violation of the supreme law at both the domestic and supranational level, namely the UK constitution and EU Treaties (or more broadly, the General Principles of Community Law which includes ECJ jurisprudence alongside the Treaties). As such, without an Act of Parliament authorising Brexit in whatever form, the legal default is that the Article 50 notice issued will lapse, if not unilaterally revoked.
https://ukhumanrightsblog.com/2019/03/19/no-deal-brexit-may-be-unlawful-a-view-from-rose-slowe/?fbclid=IwAR0CrxIrOYid9h5uWjMlMMcKJBvjp_8XwIS016VlyNXbXwjTFHV4_m-QKYQ
I wish you were right
But the reality is we will leave whether legal or not unless action is taken
I don’t see how its possible to “leave whether legal or not” as the learned legal academic and practitioner I linked to above implores us to take on board i.e. the legal position is, in face of “no deal” that the default status to ‘Gone by June’s’ art50(2) notification letter is that it would have simply expired and would be thus rendered dead and void. I’m sure the EU will adopt this stance, since the courts will likely uphold that view, act as if Brexit has been cancelled and instead await a new art50(2) notice, rather than accept a ‘No Deal”, which they too cannot accept as it would be illegal for them to “accept” it (whatever that means). I can’t see the EU hierarchy self destructing in a legal self implosion. If these outcomes were not the case, then for example, what will UK or EU border guards do if they are forced to act illegally in defiance of every UK and EU law in existence (subject to the UK and EU courts being asked to rule) by say closing the UKs borders with EU countries in response to ‘Gone by June’s’ government ministers sending down new rules via Whitehall / Brussels? Blatantly engineering such huge conflicts by either the EU or UK authorities would for certain render the Tories to the history books by the weekend – would May risk that?
This is being widely dismissed by credible lawyers
Whoop! Whoop! Oxymoron Alert.
“….credible lawyers….” ??
“This is being widely dismissed by credible lawyers’ – links, names? Thanks
All over Twitter….and there are many serious lawyers there
But Youth turnout was at a 25 year high in the 2017 election. And once youngsters start to vote they tend to carry on. And I am confident Labour activists and Momentum will increase that at the next election. And there are a lot of unpredictables which I think are likely to hurt the Tories more. Not least the fallout from Brexit. I am very hopeful of a victory.
And although the graphs linked below show roughly parallel lines clearly there are two clusters. 97 and 2010 are the two most recent and are clearly below the three older elections indicating an overall move to Labour. And those two elections were a win for Labour and a hung parliament. If 2017 were included here I think it would show a further swing.
I know no serious political commentator who thinks Labour have a hope in hell of winning
Including those I know in Labour
1. No serious political commentator foresaw the gains Labour made at the last election either.
2. This is a comment that simply says anyone who doesn’t agree with you isn’t a ‘serious political commentator’ which I think is beneath you.
3. I agree with everything you’ve said in the OP. Labour wouldn’t win a general election, but not because of their stance on Brexit.
I am suggesting you are not objective
That’s all
I am quite willing to believe what you say about ‘serious political commentators’ I see them on the telly all the time. But they just talk to each other and reinforce their own groupthink. And the MSM just parrots Tory spin as does the BBC. None of them have a clue what is happening on the ground. 21st century socialism is coming.
I referred to those I know, I think
There is a Government Petition doing the rounds of Facebook, Twitter etc just now, calling for option five: revoke Article 50. At the time I signed it, it was growing at more than 45,000 signatures an hour. It has slowed down as normal folk go to their beds, but is still growing at 18,000 signs an hour. I think partly the rate of response is due to Theresa May’s two minute speech to the public in which she claimed to know that people are fed up with all the argument in Parliament and want her to get on with Brexit! It has now past 340,000 signatures. The petition site claims that: “Parliament considers all petitions that get more than 100,000 signatures for a debate” so I wonder what will happen next?
Mine is one of the signatures
Mine too – now at 590k sigs!
I’ve signed this petition,
for what it’s worth,
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU
So have I
So have I.
@ Matt B
Thanks for tis link, Matt B.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Done and shared.
440,000 now
I voted before 8am and it was up by over 100,000 votes when I checked an hour later. I’ve shared it with family members and it appears the site is now on it’s knees! My sister voted half an hour ago after reloading the page dozens of times to get it to show and a 502 bad gateway error message appears most of the time as the servers can’t cope.
An apt representation of the way the government is functioning at present, I’m sure you’ll agree.
If I was being extremely cynical, I might ask if this is a deliberate decision to avoid embarrassment for the government – failure by design!
In my view May has let us down again and put her party first by asking for a short extension. This has obviously enraged the EU who have replied with menaces.
I watched Caroline Lucas on TV last night. There had been another meeting of the parties and apparently Corbyn walked out because TIG was there (he has a point – who voted them in folks they should all be up for re-election on their own ticket?) but she left most of her ire for May whom she said robotically presented her deal yet again without much flexibility.
Honestly – you do feel that you should just get in there, seize The Mace and take back control from Parliament, never mind the EU!!
Email Address Supplied says that Corbyn was right to walk out. Well, technically, yes. TIG are not a party. But the great majority of ordinary voters out here in the real world will not share that view. They will see this as logic chopping, Jesuitical casuistry,.For most people, this would show he is plain stupid, petty, and not prepared to explore any route towards conciliation and bringing the country, Parliament, or the progressive left and centre together. . He is playing politics. It is as stupid a move as Mrs May blaming Parliament for her own failings. The SNP, Greens, Lib Dems, and Plaid Cymru were not impressed, and would have been pleased that TIG were represented with them in an effort to achieve something by meeting Mrs May.
In my opinion Corbyn should have said he held his nose in the national interest
He would have won from that
I said he had a point.
I was not applauding him. It’s a way of understanding why he might do that without wishing to be seen to approve. Or so I thought.
Why were TIG invited? They represent for me the ‘indulgence’ that May spoke of. When you look at them, they are motley collection of what exactly?
They have no right to be there given that they are trading themselves on a different platform to what gave them the right to enter parliament in the first place. And they are anti-Corbynite to a man/woman in that group. So Corbyn had a phone conversation with May afterwards.
For me TIG are illegitimate. Proper coalitions are what we need now as Richard has pointed out this morning. We need a form of national Government – period – made up of people who have been voted into the main parties concerned for it to carry any weight.
To bring TIG in was either a miscalculation or calculated even at this stage to make people look bad – both propositions are legitimate knowing May’s mendacity.
Just to be picky 😉 it does appear that the media have (yet again) misreported or misrepresented the evening’s events. According to ‘Sqwawkbox’: “There were two meetings. There was the one with the party leaders — and another one that the Tiggers were invited to. But the Tiggers turned up at the main meeting and [May adviser] Gavin Barwell thought it would be rude to send them away even though they’d crashed it! Confusion reigned.” (https://skwawkbox.org/2019/03/21/why-corbyn-really-walked-out-of-meeting-with-umunna).
Nevertheless, Corbyn does himself – and the Opposition – no favours by not being more politically savvy or even Machiavellian.
Appearances matter…..
Exactly. The public will be furious. I am furious, it is simply petulant at this time and utterly unworthy of someone who thinks he wants to be prime minister. He will be despised and the shame is a lot of labour party members will see their work come to nothing.
BTW
Lucas said that Corbyn did not ‘storm out’ – he just left.
But apparently he did talk to May on the phone for 20 minutes.
That sounds pretty Machiavellian to me! Having a one to one with the main cause of irritation.
Having just listened to May’s No.10 statement last night for the fiest time, I think that the link between Fascism and the Tory party is now firmly established.
I actually could not believe what I was hearing.
Just when I thought that she could not get lower, May scrapes through the bottom of the moral barrel and into the populist sewer.
There are lots four letter words one could use to describe what she said but the word I would use in polite company is ‘unconscionable’.
May has to go and do not care how. This impediment to democracy and decency must be removed. Sickening.
Email Address supplied says:
“There are lots four letter words one could use to describe what she said….”
There are five letters in ‘shite’. 🙂
Email Address supplied says:
“May has to go and do not care how.”
Steady now EAs. The manner of her departure does matter.
Assassination for example (Heaven forfend) would be the making of her. She needs to leave very much in the manner of Mrs Thatcher’s exit. Humiliated by her own sort of people. Those who have eaten the orange and now throw away the skin. (As Arthur Miller put it.)
So far they have not had the nerve to do it. I suspect because they hope they can benefit from her departure as the sacrificial scapegoat, driven hence from the fold bearing the sins of Brexit and leaving the Conservative party absolved of guilt.
It’ll be a good trick if they get the timing right.
Andy
May won’t be assassinated because it’s only people from her fascist far right reactionary hinterland that does that sort of thing – in this country at least.
Richard provides a huge service to the nation. Unlike the Tory government. Thank you!
Nothing illustrates the perverted logic of the government than the assertion that a second vote ‘betrays the will of the people’. But then, in the same breath, to demand a second and third ‘meaningful vote’! Compulsive cant and breathtaking hypocrisy are the norm for the Tories.
That made me smile. Thank you.
Then again parliaments 2nd /3rd meaningful vote would be similar to Irelands Lisbon Treaty referendum demanded by the EU.
The EU clearly game scenario had these as the five outcomes knowing that the remain ‘ripping up the article 50’ was what politicians could be bullied, lured and stressed into doing. Hence offering such an awful leave but actually its a prison sentance offering knowing that if that is ruled out there is only the ripping up of article 50 or a hard no deal Brexit.
Thing is this reminds me of the start of World War 2 when the Germans thought that the British would not act and declare war for fear of what they and their empire would lose.
I have heard the Dutch and others think the same however they are from coalition governments that would never get this far and dont have an island nation mentality.
Greeces referendum to leave and then staying is a bad example. Sadly I still dont see free movement migration, rule of law and the enforcement of laws eg place of asylum declaration and only the continuation of the UK being used by the rest as the trusting pickpockets victim. Gradually rubbing out the many red lines made when joining and sharing the spoils amoungst them.
Gavin says:
“That made me smile. Thank you.”
Not much to smile about in your reply. 🙁
“Thing is this reminds me of the start of World War 2 when the Germans thought that the British would not act and declare war for fear of what they and their empire would lose.”
But the Germans were wrong. They underestimated British hubris and recklessness. And Britain didn’t win the war nor the post war peace. and DID lose the Empire.
Not to the Germans, but to the US….. history as Mark Twain remarked, does not repeat but it rhymes.
History teaches different lessons depending on what the listener wishes to hear.
If we revoke I can imagine the UK being sat at the children’s table with the plastic cutlery and the drinking cup with a lid on.
‘No you can’t have your veto back, no the trillion euros of investment capital wont be returning, no the European agencies wont be returning to their London offices, no car manufacturing has already wasted enough money moving to the continent, eat your greens and you might be allowed some dessert, now be quiet the adults are talking now!’
Though that’s still better than slamming the door closed whilst our foot is in it.
Zachariah says:
“If we revoke I can imagine the UK being sat at the children’s table with the plastic cutlery and the drinking cup with a lid on.”
Well our negotiators have behaved like recalcitrant toddlers….. “I want…. I want….. I want….”. Yes indeed damage has been done, but time can be a great healer. And toddlers can grow up.
Last time I looked the petition was through the million barrier. Not bad for a petition that nobody expects Parliament, let alone the Government to take any notice of.
The petition tally just hit the two million mark. 🙂
I know Andy – I looked at last night.
Two of my family are going to the march on Saturday in London.
I hope the turn out is high and that the Government remembers that the referendum was advisory and not a GE.
And that unlike a GE, two or more year’s followed on before the result was to be implemented and in that time a lot of troubling information has come to light.