I am a little reluctant to discuss Brexit at present. What is there to say? The best that can be done is to note the continuing utter failure of our politicians to come to terms with this issue despite the impending crisis that this creates. And since opinion of almost all those I meet remains sharply divided, I also wonder what the point of debate is any more. I know what I want. The trouble is, so does everyone else, it seems. And little progress is made as a result.
What remains under discussion is what will happen. Will we extend, have a second referendum, remain or crash out?
Extend is, of course, an option that resolves nothing in itself unless a plan is attached. I see no plan to attach to it at present. And because I see little chance of the Commons agreeing on either a second referendum or extend, and none at all of it agreeing on May's deal, then crashing out seems by far the most likely option to me at present. I stress, I rule nothing out. But I would put the odds of Remain at near zero at present; a people's vote at less than 10%; May's deal at little more than that, and so crashing out at higher than 70%.
I happen to agree with Ivan Rogers that the chance that we would stay out of a trade deal with the EU, or maybe even the EU itself, for long is very low indeed. There isn't, in his opinion (which I share) a serious politician in the UK who does not think that having a trade deal with the EU is not better than not having one. The very fact that Liam Fox is scuttling round the world trying to recreate (at best) what we already have is the clearest evidence of that. So every politician who will let us crash out of the EU in little over three weeks time knows that. That this option is disastrous for the UK is known already, but I think it will happen anyway.
I happen to believe that those who say they will permit this because that is what their constituents wanted are telling the truth. It shows remarkably little courage on their part to suggest this. It reveals even less ability. They apparently have no belief to that when the facts change so should opinion. And we do, very obviously, know more now than we did. It even shows a willingness to ignore the evidence that the 2016 result would not be replicated now. Instead it shows that we have politicians who have reduced their own status to such degree that they no longer think it their duty to lead, inform debate, and use their best judgement. History will not be kind to them.
And yet, maybe just maybe, they are the politicians of the moment. The politicians who dance to the populist press' tune. The politicians who will curry immediate favour whatever the long term cost. Politicians for whom principle is a word the have to check in the dictionary in case they get the wrong spelling. Politicians who reflect a society that has profoundly lost its way and needs a profound shock to help it re-establish what it might be.
And, I repeat the phrase deliberately, maybe just maybe we need to go through the process of having that profound shock now because that might be the only way in which sanity might be restored.
I stress, people will die as a result. Of that there can be no doubt.
And I stress that the process will be ghastly.
And the long term cost of the chaos we will create for ourselves will be very high, and I regret that for all our childrens' sake, in particular.
But this country has reached a point of unsustainability. Its politics do not work. Its political system does not work. Its constitution does not work, by which I mean that those countries that make up this supposedly united kingdom are not now united by very much at all. Its media does not work, and peddles a diet of lies. Its economic structure delivers extortionate returns to a very few at cost to most. It is far from being environmentally sustainable. And its whole body politic has been corrupted by a philosophy that has put self interest first as if nothing else matters. It's as if communities of interest hardly matter any more, and politicians from far too many parties do not seem to care.
And so we end up with an act of wilful self destruction, which is what Brexit is. The vast majority can see that in itself it is glaringly obviously not the right thing to do. But none of our leaders can apparently work out how they can stop an act of self-destruction that they created. In that sense they are the politicians that we may deserve right now, even if they are not the politicians that we need.
So what happens when we crash out, as I now think that we will? That's the subject of another post. But trust me, all we can say is it will not be pretty. Not for a while, anyway. And that when order is restored we will be living in very different countries.
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The far right want to crash out and create utter chaos so they can step in. That is why Theresa May is so dogmatic about not ruling out no deal.
Indeed, but not necessarily because it’s what she wants to do. More likely she’s keeping it on the table to stop her party from disintegrating.
I think the worst is yet to come, but not from Brexit. Even a no-deal Brexit would be traumatic, but certainly survivable. Brexit is monumentally stupid, and will ruin much of what remains of manufactuing and agriculture in the UK, but it is not suicidal, and we will adapt to it in time.
The really frightening prospect is, as you say, the total failure of our political system to “come to terms with the issues despite the impending crisis that this creates”. We are already in the early stages of an even bigger crisis – the replacement of jobs by automation – which is clearly not survivable within our current economic systems. Much like the phasing out of cash, automation is inevitable because it can save businesses massive costs, and there is no business reason not to do it, apart from the pain of making more employees redundant. Only lone voices, like the inspiring Andrew Yang running for President in the USA, are really raising this issue right now. Yet the worst of this crisis will hit within just 2 more parliamentary terms. The total failure of Westminster to deal with Brexit illustrates just how much trouble we are going to be in, and unlike Brexit, this crisis is not survivable without unprecedented and radical changes to tax and fiscal policy, including Basic Income.
Maybe Marx is right in that the inherent contradictions in capitalism will inevitably lead to its collapse.
Glimpsing our AI future – Howard Covington, The Alan Turing Institute https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da7PlzGh4to is well worth a watch – long but a wide ranging view/summary of technology futures.
“And that when order is restored we will be living in very different countries.“
CountrIES? ISWYDT (or at least I think I do).
Personally, I am quite content to see Irish reunification or Scottish independence, and do not believe it threatens either the remainder of Britain, or the safety or prosperity of the NI Protestant/Unionist community (as the rest of Ireland would no doubt work very hard to allay their concerns of marginalisation). Certainly I feel no threat or insult to my own sense of identity as someone born and raised on England.
My mind does boggle somewhat at the realisation that if these secessions happen, as I think is very likely in the wake of a no-deal Brexit, their proximate cause will have been the actions of the Democratic *Unionist* Party and the Conservative and *Unionist* Party. What is it that these two groups so desperately want that they would undermine the existence of the country which they profess to love so much?
What you say could very well be the case Richard.
My only worry is that the chaos will be perpetuated though by the fascist behaviour of those already out there. And this would mean that order may be nigh impossible to restore. It’s possible – more’s the pity.
That risk is very real
I recognise it
America’s protest vote brought in the insanity of trump.
Maybe Richard is right.
Brexit was the UK’s protest vote and we have equally as insidious clowns in charge.
But AOC is offering America a silver lining with mainstream coverage of the Green New Deal concept and even hints of MMT.
This idea was Richard and a few others’ baby born in the UK.
Maybe the UK bottoming out and the very real threat of viscous fascism and the total deregulation of environmental and human rights and the firesale of national assets is our own trumpian distopia.
We just need some fearless young political voices to guide us back into the light from the ashes.
Maybe that has to be the real focus?
Community cohesion and civil disobedience to prevent the worst effects from being enforced to prevent the ash from forming and then promoting independent candidates running on GND platforms to build the next system.
Trump and the muppets in UK politics have illustrated noone needs a background in politics anymore.
Maybe we can back teachers, artists nurses and scientists, real people who understand reason and value expert advice under a common manifesto for a better society.
I wish
It’s an odd thing if people on the left look forward to “order will be restored.”
I welcomed the Brexit vote being a draw because the current order is no good. I’ve been made redundant by the Tories, and now have a zero hours job. This is not the fault of the EU, or of brexit. And for some people the current order means food banks.
My big fear is that the Tories either unite around May’s deal or that a no deal Brexit turns out to be a damp squib and the Tories survive while every body wonders what the fuss was about. Alarmist prophecies of imports stopping don’t help (surely no Government, even May’s, is so incompetent that they could fail to import stuff?).
The big prize is a split between the Tory Brexit fanatics and the rest, and the big risk is that somehow they might get away with blaming Labour for Brexit not happening.
I apologise if you thought I was suggesting that the existing order will be restored
I have no belief that this will be the case
Nor any belief that it would be desirable.
Interestingly it has just occurred to me that No deal exit is in the EU commissioners interest and I explain my reasoning.
Say the EU made some sensible corrections to flawed idealistic policies pre 29 March to which I will call it birthday as it is mine! :-[ the outcome would be populist partys would say see we can leave to and get a similar deal. Relax and vote for us. Whereupon the May EU elections would be really catastrophic for mainstream moderate parties as the EU flounders about with money against popular unrest.
Take a long term say 5 year view of the UK being out and the job losses in trade for the EU would be bad as they have a trade surplus and so some deal would be done because it would be like all trade deals a win win scenario again but would again be difficult.
What if they delayed article 50 booting out until after May elections – Uk is still in and problem is still there 3 years of negotiations were for naught. But they have another bunch of UK MEPs elected?
However between those extreems there is making lemonade if you have only a lemon situation – 2 months of semi chaos drama, lorry jams for miles, wasted produce, scarce produce, unpredictable public reactions and protests.
Will this persuade UK voters/MPs to have the excuse to rip up article 50 as the EU commissioners would hope?
Or more likely would it cause fear amoungst populist countrys voters to stick to the centrist parties and bolster those in favour of the EU of MEPs at this election.
After the May election then the commissioners can see where the dust settles and if they keep their jobs Polands Donald Tusk did despite his governments opposition! Then reality beyond the set piece dramas will set in.
Tricky thing ruling by fear the trick works once e.g. the Scottish referendum but never the same again as people learn and live with that fear e.g. Brexit referendum or just like living with the blitz. “Open as usual” signs in a bombed out shop.
2 months is the time of peak disruption before the orders for container ships set off taking 1 month to arrive from the far east. Say supplies in discovering the new stock gaps takes up 3 weeks of delay. Until they get through the port/airport – a bit like a cash flow problem – the stock or cash will arrive but the delay causes the problem.
The interests of UK conservative party vs EU commissioners, EU political parties, UK Labour party leader, separatist regions leaders, working class voters, middle and upper class voters are not the same. MEPs vs their MEP political groupings, MPs wishing to hold onto their job vs National interest vs party politics interest. The short term hiatus vs the long term change.
All too much in my opinion is focussed on the UK whilst the other sides interests and actions reveal some of their game plan and I have seen misinformation placement in the most unusual of places in the EU which really does take some considerable effort by the 27 nations.
There is not a single interpretation on earth that says No Deal suits the EU
And you might need to think about understanding EU structures better
I am sorry, but this is just nonsense