I sat, open-mouthed and incredulous when watching the news that MPs welcomed Theresa May's announcement of new votes on Brexit on March 12, 13 and 14 as if these were to be welcomed and were, in some way, a major step forward.
May is offering another vote on her deal. It has already been resoundingly rejected.
Then she is offering MPs the chance to vote on No Deal, which the government estimates will cost 9% of GDP per annum in the long run, and cause social and economic mayhem in the short term, as if this is something MPs might actually want.
Finally, she is offering a three-month Brexit extension, which is not within her gift. The EU has to decide whether Article 50 can be extended. All we can do is revoke it without their consent. And the chance that the EU will offer a three-month extension is very low indeed, for three reasons.
First, there is no logic to three months: nothing can be resolved in that period. There could not, for example, be another referendum and there is no sign that parliament has any way of resolving Brexit without one. The EU is discussing 21 months to allow appropriate time to resolve matters. That would make sense.
Second, extending to June ignores the fact that the EU moves into limbo in April until a new Commission is appointed and a new parliament is elected. There is no EU to negotiate with during these three months, in effect. May must know that. Some MPs are apparently daft enough not to do so.
And third, the EU will say no because May asked for it. Why should they let her dictate terms right now? I am sure they will not. A counter-proposal is inevitable. But many MPs also seem unaware of that.
I despair.
I have despaired before, I know. But the impression that we now have active connivance from those supposed to be opposing Brexit in the process that delivers No Deal by default seems very high, simply because they have no ability to appraise risks, seems extraordinarily high.
How did we reach this point?
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The first answer to how that comes to mind is incompetence, but then again obedient cowardice comes into it, and the irresponsible blindness that goes with it.
How did we elect such a bunch is another question, and a worrying one, It seems to me that over 80% of the HoC wouls be sacked if they were in any other business. So how come we chose to vote for them?
They can forget about the 3 months extension anyway, the Dutch PM has already kindly pointed out that going round the round-about ten times won’t help find the exit.
The EU is already in electoral mode, May and her chicken run can go cackle.
Marie Thomas asks:
“How did we elect such a bunch is another question, and a worrying one, It seems to me that over 80% of the HoC would be sacked if they were in any other business. So how come we chose to vote for them?”
I think it is the result of a gradual and continuous shift away from a sense of democratic responsibility. I don’t think it’s new. The political class pre-WW1 drifted helplessly into war which nobody really wanted (except a deluded military for whom warfare was their raison d’etre. WW2 was the result of similar ‘drift’.
We are too ready to pass-off the responsibility for governance to a self selecting ‘few’. We truly do get the government we deserve.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. We are lazy and complacent and too easily deferential.
Adversarial tribal politics is worse than useless when the main political blocs that should be capable of providing governance and a way out of this mess are irredeemably split. And the problem becomes even more intractable when a cabal of disaster capitalists is the tail wagging the dog of the current governing bloc, while the opposition bloc is being run by a clique of disaster socialists.
Nicely put! I suspect we don’t have to explain Shock Doctrine to this man 🙂
Thank you. And I shocked myself by being vaguely reassured by John McDonnell, who appears to be tearing his hair out at the damaging antics of the clique surrounding Mr. Corbyn, threatening to go around the country listening to Labour MPs.
I think you read that correctly
I do not think John is consulted by Milne and Murray
How did we get to this point –
Because Article 50 is flawed.
1) To be disallowed from entering trade or any other agreement before a withdraw agreement is totally ridiculous and the UK helped write it.
2) We have no leverage.
3) We are being ruled by incompetent people.
Regards.
Nonsense. UK didn’t “help write” it. Lord Kerr wrote it.
Blaming the text of the article for the fact that it was invoked prematurely and with no plan is absurd.
UK was perfectly free to discuss trade deals with other countries before invoking it but could not, of course, put them into effect while a member of the EU trade bloc.
Still no end to the UK’s exceptionalism & cakeism?
And why was he there?
I can only build on the answers above and say that we came to this through populist politics and the mirage that is/was the Third Way. Giddens made us giddy with his status quo justifying hogwash.
As a consequence of Giddens, we have not had adversarial politics in this country since Tony Blair came on the scene and turned Labour into a Tory aping party, chasing swing voters and favouring market fundamentalism a la Clinton. Poor Labour. So hurt by their rejection by the population. They just gave up on us.
And – with populism – policy is now guided by the myths and prejudices of the common man (planted there by a generous fascist right and a few left wingers of course) as our MPs seek to go into a popularity contest to satiate the demands of who exactly? But if a society has been told year on year that the EU is a negative thing – what do you expect? Add that to anti-democracy attitudes on social media and you have a perfect storm of manufactured ignorance that is now biting the arse of the MPs. Talk about peeing in the wind!
But maybe this country – with its fondness for a few beers and other ‘fuck it all’ substances , its self delusion concerning over-priced property giving one status, the dumbing-down effects of Strictly Come Dancing/ its ‘The Voice’ obsessions and soap opera addiction, the endless crime series and other Soma – has at last got it what it deserved?
But that is a cheap shot. Truth be told our society has been malignly divided and conquered yet again.
As I said before we are now crawling and screeching into the terminus know as ‘End of the Bloody Line’ with a jolt.
I watched this the other day and was chastened:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2019/feb/26/jess-phillips-tells-may-she-is-enraged-with-her-lack-of-bravery-video
Richard said something similar to what I’m about to say a while back but Jess made me feel quite ashamed the other day. Because I realised that I have actually been wasting my time.
Because I did not care enough or believe strongly enough in my values or my abilities, I did not stand for Parliament to make the country a better place to live. And by doing that, I let too many below par, inferior people get voted in, in my place instead. And I also denied myself the opportunity to influence decision makers and power and to combat many of the really bad ideas that dominate this country. And that is also why we are where we are at the moment with BREXIT and austerity.
So, I hold myself partly responsible I’m afraid in answering Richard’s question.
I don’t quite know where I go from here. I have two children and I have to ask myself exactly what I have taught them by not doing more?
Talk to them about it
I do with mine all the time
How indeed have we reached this point? Through stupidity, fanaticism, cowardice, ignorance, incompetence, lying, complacency and arrogance, I suggest.
The referendum was called by a complacent and arrogant PM who thought to silence the anti EU fanatics in the Tory party, and was so clueless about the effects of the austerity and inequality his neoliberal ideology had caused he never thought that a certain part of the electorate would use the vote as a protest.
The combination of the Leave campaign’s lies and breaking of electoral funding rules, and the ignorance of a large percentage of the electorate, then produced a narrow win for the Leave side. Then, a cowardly Theresa May, totally unopposed by an incompetent Jeremy Corbyn, let herself be bullied by the fanatics of the ERG, and passed Article 50 before any proper planning. And the vast majority of MP’s went along with them.
And since then, despite the ever growing weight of evidence about the utter dishonesty and criminality behind the Leave campaign, the ever growing evidence of economic damage, and firms leaving the UK, and the fact that the ECJ has ruled the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50, we are still heading towards leaving the EU, either with May’s rotten ‘deal’, or, even worse, no deal at all. As you say Richard, I despair.
The arrogance, ignorance and fanaticism of the Brexiters hasn’t changed. The uselessness of Corbyn hasn’t changed. And, with some honourable exceptions, the cowardice of moderate MPs who know full well how disastrous leaving the EU will be for the UK, but refuse to properly oppose it, continues.
I don’t know why Gina Miller bothered in her Court case, do you?
She gave Parliament a chance
And it refused to take it
As the reputation and clout of Westminster inevitably continues to diminish due to this wretched debacle, I see that we are already losing influence in the world, with the recent court case at the International Court ruling against Britain in favour of the Chagos islanders, following a heavy defeat in the UN in 2017 due to EU countries (and others) that used to support the UK abstaining of voting against us.
Given the injustice done to the islanders by the UK, I suppose we can say every cloud has a silver lining!
If Brexit is as big a disaster as it’s shaping up to be, I wonder whether a future Scottish government might run another IndyRef, and if the result was a clear Yes, declare UDI from a by then discredited UK parliament. I wouldn’t blame them one bit.
I despair of the situation too, but can I just point out that there is a logic to the three month extension. The EU Parliament sits a new session on 2nd of July and therefore a new deadline date can be set as 1 July. There is also provision, I believe, for the EU Parliament to sit in a Lame Duck session. Although only to be used for emergencies I’m guess most rational people will see it as one by now. Your third reason…, well I understand where you’re coming from, and empathy from the EU to the UK must be drier then the West Yorkshire moorland yesterday, but if a short extension helps to get the job done I suspect they’ll agree to it. I think the EU will grant the extension with provisos, however. One of which will be that the WA must be agreed by 22 May, five and a half weeks before the ‘new’ deadline and a day before EU elections are due to start. If the WA is not agreed on that date then the EU close the book, hunker down and expect no-deal-Brexit.
At the moment, and very sadly, I cannot see how a 2nd vote can be triggered. My gut feeling still is that a version of May’s deal will get through.
Govt seem to have blame all lined up ready for Brexiting or not, either will all be the fault of business or others, apparently, for not preparing. This I gather from skimming through the relevant preparedness notice Implications_for_Business_and_Trade_of_a_No_Deal_Exit_on_29_March_2019.pdf
” Many of the Government’s plans depend on third party or third country action for successful delivery.”
So all someone else’s fault then.
Is this the definitive vote we were supposed to have had in October…..at least six months later than might have made sense in terms of making any sort of plans for any sort of Brexit ?
We crossed the line into farce so long ago who remembers………?
And then the trade deal discussions may….or may not begin (?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqbk9cDX0l0
Corbyn has been very frustrating I agree.
But there is nothing normal about BREXIT. Normal rules do not apply but I also think we still expect them to.
Labour has felt its way along the issue, millimetre by millimetre – agonisingly slowly. But was there a better way? I cannot think so. Not with the lack of collective thinking about Labour party direction or BREXIT. Labour has at least done what it said at its conference and now seems to be backing a second referendum (and I disagree with that BTW).
The SNP tabled a vote last night about defeating a no deal scenario that was defeated by 30 odd votes wasn’t it?
Why was that? Was it anti-SNP sentiment? Tribalism? It was a perfectly sound proposition.
I’ve grown a little tired of hearing about Corbyn.
First and foremost we have a most callous Prime Minister whose callousness is only matched by her lack of political judgement. And she has cemented herself in to her position and she has bribed other parties to prop her up and seems willing to buy support elsewhere too when she feels like it. Why is that seen as a legitimate thing to do in modern politics (Why? Because its the politics of the workplace of May’s husband – that’s why. Got a problem? Buy it out of the way and it will disappear if the price is right). Markets eh?
But then there is Parliament herself which is a bigger concern. It has failed to contain this individual called Theresa May. We seem to be living in a country that cannot restrain its highest ranking politician in the country’s best interest.
The collective responsibility of Parliament has failed the country thus far. It’s own research predicts a 9% drop in economic output post BREXIT. It has reported back on the vagaries of the referendum process. But still, it cannot just pull on the reins and stop the whole charade.
We can blame Corbyn and May as much as we like. But make no mistake. Our system of Government is finished. BREXIT has revealed this. Our democracy has stopped functioning and we are undone. Parliament is in disarray.
Whatever happens next must start from that viewpoint. FPTP has to go and relying on the good will of those in the system is no longer good enough. Although some will argue that no matter what checks and balances are put in place, devious people will find a way around them, we still need to deal with the weaknesses.
For example, why are MPs offered a ‘free vote’ on anything? I mean WTF? It potentially unshackles MPs from any sort of responsibility to the outside world. It panders to the world in their heads only – in a representative democracy? A REPRESENTATIVE democracy. Now – in the midst of BREXIT, it seems so naive.
As I said, we need to rethink democracy in this country. And out here I am seeing a growing desire amongst Leavers and Remainers for more authoritarian means of governance as people see Parliament continuously fail to do its job. This is the biggest risk of all.
That we need to rethink is obvious
How we do that is hard
Delivering the answer, harder still
‘Obvious’? To whom?
It’s answering that question that unlocks the other two which you rightly point out.
It seems to me that it’s an issue that wasn’t about party politics played in an arena that is driven by party politics.
A 48/52 split in the vote should have translated to roughly half of MPs representing remainers and half representing leavers (it probably didn’t because FPTP but that’s a whole other ball of wax). The problem is it wasn’t split along party lines.
In an ideal world faced with such a split May&Corbyn would have realized it’s not a party issue and allowed two alliances to naturally form. What actually happened is the adverserial system meant there was no way that would fly.
So instead of two opposing groups finding a middle ground and delivering what they can agree too. both major parties tore themselves apart trying to argue with themselves on what to do, and they’re still doing it. The negotiations with the EU became a sideshow when they should have been the point.
At this point there’s nothing can be done. There’s still no consensus nor can there be. No matter how many time parliament votes against the tide coming it it’s still coming in, and nobody is prepared to get off the beach..