Apple has lost its edge. Fewer people are buying its jewellery, which is what any phone costing more than £200 appears to be to me.
And now Tata has written off more than £3 billion of investment in Jaguar Landrover. It's true that the loss of faith in diesels has a lot to do with that. Which is good news for the planet. But so too, I suspect, is the fact that its jewellery (because most of its cars do sell on the basis of being bling) has less appeal these days.
This may just be consumers spotting the economic downturn early this time.
It could just be those same consumers can face no more debt.
And it could be they have rumbled the marketing myths.
But what it says to me is that the time for a rethink of the economy is arriving, and fast. Markets are not supplying what people want.
And much of what people really want, from secure and suitable housing for everyone, to long term economic security, to proper social care as well as decent eduction and functioning public services, all wrapped in a green transformation, can only be supplied by the state.
I have nothing against the market. It does some things extraordinarily well. But I am beginning to think people are realising that bling is no substitute for what those who have been buying it want for their children and their parents. And the mood is changing.
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You sound like a bitter old man rattling on about the “good old days” of the soviet bloc..
If that’s the best you can offer you really are way behind the times, aren’t you
How about trying an argument?
An optimist might think that the general public are acting on sustainability concerns, concerns they are seeing the Elite ignore!
I could hope so…
peter dawe says:
“An optimist might think that the general public are acting on sustainability concerns, concerns they are seeing the Elite ignore!”
….but …..it’s more likely because people are feeling the pinch on their incomes…… and their credit lines having run out.
I don’t believe people are not buying diesel vehicles for ecological reasons, I reckon they have sussed that the resale value is going to go through the floor. I believe that matters to people in the new car market……. doesn’t it?
I’ve always been at the other end of the market where resale value is whatever I can get for scrap when it finally dies or will cost too much to pass its MOT test.
Be careful generalising. Resale diesels have not been affected at all.
Log burners emit the other 50% of particulates, and are even closer to were people breathe them in.
I accept the premise about fossil fuels. However most ‘new car’ have switched to petrol with lower nitrogen dioxides but much higher CO2 emissions.
JRs woes are due to China having a major slowdown.
I think you may also be generalising
I also think that the advertising deluge when you go on-line has turned people off.
If anything rather than entice me to buy, I am more likely to put companies with overly intrusive ads on my boycott list. Same goes for companies that are not paying their share of taxes or are in other way unethical.
As you can probably guess, I don’t do Amazon. There are a couple of items I have not yet found an alternate supplier for, but I will keep on searching or do without.
I known advertising does work on me – but I try to be very aware of it as well
Having taken my 16/17 year old Skoda (a diesel bought for its better fuel consumption and lower CO2 emissions in 2006) in to the garage for a minor repair this morning, and having a mobile phone bought SIM free for less than £100, I find the possibility that we’re nearing ‘peak stuff’ rather interesting.
Like you, I’ve never seen the point of the high end mobile phones, or cars like the ones JLR produce. Especially the huge fuel guzzling 4×4’s – one of my pet hates. It’s all about showing status as far as I can see.
Although I suspect that at the moment there are other factors at play here, especially in Britain, as we face the prospect of Brexit, which is going to put even more people into precarious financial straits. I heard yesterday that over 90% of new cars bought in the UK are by finance agreements; as soon as I heard it I thought of your point about the way neoliberal economics gives rise to unsustainable levels of private debt, whilst insisting that all public debt is bad.
Incidentally, the same program (Analysis, I think) which was about the UK car industry, ended by concluding that Brexit would see the end of the British car industry. Even if a disastrous ‘hard’ Brexit is avoided, the inferior trading arrangements and tariffs resulting from leaving the EU mean that the foreign multi nationals that are here now will not make the future investments needed to make the transition from R&D and large scale production of petrol/diesel cars to electric cars. It will be death by a thousand cuts.
The 90% debt figure is right for all new cars
As I explain to my sons, neighbours wish flasher, newer cars are not necessarily better o0ff: they’re just much more likely to be in debt
It’s a lesson worth learning young, I think
Yes, avoiding unnecessary debt incurred in buying new ‘stuff’ you don’t need is a very valuable lesson Richard. I sort of absorbed this from my parents as I grew up.
I’ve never seen the point in getting into debt just to own a new car when there are so many 2nd hand ones around for a fraction of the price; and given the build quality of cars these days, you’re unlikely to get a pup as long as you exercise a bit of caution.
And you’re paying interest to lease/part own something that steadily depreciates in value.
Debt incurred for something needed to own or run a business is of course entirely different. A self-employed builder needing a new van, an entrepeneur starting a new business needing to lease an office and equipment, or a bank loan – fine. Markets can’t function without some degree of debt.
I entirely agree we need debt
Of course we do
But it has to be the right debt for the rough reasons – and advertising induced debt is rarely that
Cars and finance….
You remember those free plastic toys they used to put in cereal packets….?
….well, a car is the free gift you get for signing up to an endless finance deal. We were trained in childhood while we were getting our niacin, thiamine and riboflavin…..
Electric cars are in engineering terms vastly simpler to make than internal combustion ones.
A diesel engine has hundreds of moving parts: not just turning but reciprocating which is mechanically a weak point.
Electric motors have ONE moving part.
A bunch of empty factories, set up to build cars, going for a song sounds like a big opportunity to me.
I`ll be happy to take on the job of car Tsar…..
One moving part….under the control of complex electronics with literally hundreds of thousands of active parts….and a half-tonne battery composed of a whole load of smaller batteries….with a complex charging system…and the same old wheels/suspension/brakes…etc…Had a test last week of a Nissan Leaf….said to give 168 miles on a single charge….managed a bit over 90 miles…but then, the cabin heater chews the battery quite a bit and the battery has its own heater as well…still pretty good….but living in a flat with no charging point nearby, so no point in buying yet…
My mother passed away recently. She died in a NHS hospital where we found the lack of resources frustrating. She voted Conservative all her life.
It occurred to me that she could have done with fewer tax cuts and generational bribes and more investment in public services.
Simon Jones says:
“My mother passed away recently. She died in a NHS hospital where we found the lack of resources frustrating. She voted Conservative all her life.”
My condolences on your loss. My own mother died a few years ago, but I for one couldn’t fault the level of care she received from NHS Scotland, not just in her terminal stages, but in her last difficult year.
Anecdotally there a lot of Conservative-voting older folk retiring to Scotland to take advantage of a better level of health care provision. The lack of joined-up thinking is staggering.
Maybe, just maybe, consumers making consumption choices are starting to think not only in terms of the personal financial cost of those choices but also in terms of the social and environmental cost.
“You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.”
Count me in o0n the dreaming gig
Do you have any figures to support the ‘fewer people buying iPhones’ comment? As far as I can see Apple sold around 216m in 2017 and around the same in 2018.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/
Apple seem to think the market is stagnant compared to what it was
On the smaller bling things… I recently made the mistake of asking my twenty seven year old son why was it that he and his friends always had the latest and most expensive electronic gadgets. One eyebrow arched, he retorted: “Well its not as if we will ever be able to afford a house…”
True…..
Hi Richard,
I understand the comments made above on the dangers of high levels of personal debt, but what are your thoughts on how people will be expected to then purchase electric cars when the time arrives when that technology is truly viable and is mainstream? It’s not like people will have the thousands of pounds to purchase them without some sort of financing….
Also, I’m curious about your thoughts on:
1) How long do you think it will take before electric cars truly become mainstream, the infrastructure will be in place and people will no longer buy petrol/diesel cars ? Is that a long time off?
2) Where will the energy sources come from to generate all the extra electricity that will be needed? Tidal…nuclear…??
Thanks,
Robin
I am certain others can answer that better than me
Dear Robin
In reference to your 2nd point, here’s a link that may answer some of your concerns, regarding energy storage.
https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/?s=battery+storage
Regards
Louis
Dear Robin
See this link with reference to your 2nd point
https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/?s=battery+storage
Pumped storage….looks like Scotland has not heard of Wales (Dinorwig) outputof 1.8GW with a capacity of 9GWH. Cost in 1970/80, £400 million. Now? About £2-3 billion.
Battery storage…first?
No. The National grid has an ever-increasing battery storage, around 150MW so far…
The downer for pumped storage is the time of construction, plus the ever-present environmental objections…which will inevitably end in courts.
@Robin
Financing of electric vehicles won’t be a different proposition to replacing conventional vehicles. Maybe more expensive in the short term, but essentially business as usual.
Self driving vehicles may reduce the necessity for everyone to have their own vehicle; why own a car if you are an occasional user and can phone for one to appear when required ? Mass transport, self-driving buses particularly, could easily become much more frequent and offer a better service. How we’ll usefully employ thousands of redundant drivers is another question entirely, and probably brings us round to looking seriously at Job Guarantee programmes.
On availability of generating capacity in addition to Louis’ offerings I thought this looks promising;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWgkl7W9xU0&t=607s
Liquid Air Storage ‘batteries’ offer another avenue for smoothing intermittent renewable sources, and may prove effective in propelling freight vehicles.
Timescale will depend in all cases to a large extent on political will and the foot-dragging of powerful oil-producers who at present have an unhealthy and disproportionate influence on politics.
We could have been much further forward in all this if we hadn’t wasted the last decade, or more, in thrall to an almost entirely unproductive, parasitic financial and banking industry.
The transition to e-vehicles will be way slower and way more expensive than anyone is saying!
1) The owners of “stranded assets” in the petrol/diesel economy, are not going quietly
2) If it is like for like replacement of vehicles, the energy use is around the same. But remember, the up-front capital cost of electricity generation is the problem, not the unit price of the electricity
3) Distribution of the electricity isn’t being addressed. Our broken private grid system, means that the grid owners have a perverse incentive to under-invest, in order to make distribution a shortage commodity that will attract high rents.
4) Freight has barely been considered, there is little spare capacity on the rail network
5) All ideas of improving vehicle usage apply to petrol as well as electric vehicles and I argue should not be included in arguments about electric v petrol
For what it is worth, I think poor people will be further penalised to ensure the elite can move freely. ( I wonder if the sudden “Vegan” fashion, is in part about ensuring the elite can eat well, ‘cos the poor are on “rice and beans”)
I have a feeling the transition will take longer than many would like
But will happen
It’s the support technologies on driverless etc that will drive it, literally
And re the grid – the answer is obvious…
When I go in to town these days, In the High Street I find absolutely nothing that I NEED. Lots of bling, but no necessities whatever. Perhaps a dead end of evolution. The only shoppers left are those who can afford unnecessary spending.