YouGov published polling on Brexit yesterday. The fieldwork was by constituency and covered more than 20,000 people about a week ago. This was one finding:
Interesting. Especially if you live in Lincolnshire, North Cambridgeshire and West Norfolk.
I don't. Not any more.
But this was even more interesting:
And you are trying to tell me there is no political divide between Scotland and England and Wales?
Pull the other one.
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First preference method would seem to suggest that economic migration was not the big issue right-wing vested interest media pumped it up to be. Obviously there’s been “chumming” of the water by the super-rich and their politician poodles going on here.
This was what a long standing newspaper commenter “TheGreatRonRafferty” (sadly no longer commenting) once wrote about the Eastern counties:-
“I lived and worked in the fens, from where 80% of the UK veg (cabbages, cauliflowers, calibrice, brussels, leeks and onions) originates. I knew loads of the farmers, the gang-masters and the workers. As soon as Jan 1 2004 arrived, the veg workers, who had done the work in the fields for generations, in ZHC, were sacked, and EEs brought across to do the work instead. Many were “loaned” the money for the journey (a loan that they could never repay), had their passports taken off them (“as security”), were put in 2-up, 2-down houses that in 2004 cost £30K and a year later cost £100K because the gang-masters were buying them all up as houses of multi-occupancy at 20+ per house, and fed an abysmal diet, all of which was the subject of excessive stoppages from their pay. Many of the workers wore clothes entirely unsuitable for the weather and ground conditions (not those nice new orange ones you’ll have seen when the BBC sends a camera), …… so I hope you enjoy your slave-picked veg. You might of course, be forgiven for hating the British gang-master. But in an ironic twist, most of those were replaced by even worse EE gang-masters, who not only advertised the jobs solely in EE countries, but required workers to speak a specific EE language.”
An academic analysis of Brexit voting appears to bear out the argument something unusual was going on in the Eastern counties:-
http://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/oxford-and-brexit/brexit-analysis/mapping-brexit-vote
In Scotland nearly 80% of agricultural land is devoted to cereal production which is now of course highly mechanised meaning human labour for bringing in the crop is not in high demand.
Re cereals, I think of the area devoted to crops (exc grass) cereals account for nearly 80%. (Wiki) There is a large area classed as rough grazing. We had a 90 acre (hobby) farm which in the time of the father of the farmer who sold it to me, ie the 50’s & 60’s, and earlier, would have supported a family and probably at least one worker. In previous centuries the glens were highly populated and contrary to current Establishment myths were quite productive because people worked the land. In Spain, where I am on holiday, you still see a “peasant” agriculture with small holdings worked by families, goats or sheep taken up the hill by the “herd” (or shepherd/goatherd) to graze most of the day, the “herd” with them, small vineyards on precipitous slopes worked by hand. You see none of that now in Scotland. You need hundreds, probably more, acres to make a living in agriculture now, unless you’re in a very specialised market.
It’s time to bring people back to the glens. We now realise that intensively raised livestock, fed on cereals, contributes to global warming and soil degradation and has other harmful effects, but the glens are ideally suited to extensive livestock rearing without any need for supplementary feeding of cereals. It would also create more jobs
There are quite a few people who would agree with you about the Glens. Have you read Maurice Walsh? His ‘The Spanish Lady’ features a couple of young people who are anxious to bring people back to a glen in North-East Scotland (I think!) and, by the end of the story, which takes place during World War Two, you’re left hoping that ‘Young Affran’ will live to fulfil his dream.
The same could, of course, be said for many valleys in Wales – but the best of those are now permanently under water, supplying big English cities.
And I also note, on the second of the maps above, that the Welsh-speaking parts of Wales – plus, now, the South Wales Valleys would favour Remain. Only the anglicised areas would prefer May’s deal.
Another problem affecting land use in the Highlands is the massive presence of grouse moors. I saw a stat recently claiming it was now about 20% of the entire land mass of Scotland – there was no source cited so it may be unreliable. It does provide a small amount of year-round local employment and some seasonal direct & indirect employment during the season.
The same stat also claimed that revenue attributable to grouse-shooting contributed a mere 0.02% of Scotland’s GDP (again no source given), and costs the Scottish Gov’t £65 per acre in subsidy, a sum vastly in excess of the revenue generated. At the same time, there is significant collateral environmental damage to other wildlife (culls of mountain hares, raptors etc) and the land.
The whole question of land ownership and use needs to be addressed in order to produce a plan that would maximise environmental benefit and create employment opportunities. There are huge vested interests involved, so it won’t be easy.
Scotland has a massive problem on land ownership: even more so than the rUK
The disparities are an inequality an independent Scotland would have to address
A land trust for Scotland would be a good start
N Ireland isn’t covered by this poll, but has the potential to affect the whole Brexit outcome and the future of May and the Tories to a greater extent than any other. With the population there split approx 50/50 along religious lines, it appears from polls there is a slow but gradual shift of the Protestant community (erstwhile staunch Unionists) towards favouring unification with the Republic. Brexit and its implications for the GFA and public order seems to have started that shift. How ironic that the party advocating a strong and united UK looks likely to bring about its demise.
A significant number of Ulster unionists now have Irish passports – which they can obtain as a right – for being born in NI. Whatever happens with respect to Breixt – it will have zero impact on their ability to move into mainland Uk or indeed into mainland Europe. Peter Cook made a profound comment on hypocrisy – but since this is a family journal I will abstain from repeating!
& in response to Mr Schofield – I was in Hereford recently working on an industrial site – a very large converted farm – the Polish workers that used to pick fruit were now deployed doing other things on the industrial site – the site manage noted that they had been there for years & looking at them they appeared well dressed, well fed and happy. This is not to suggest Ron Rafferty was wrong – just that there are significant shades of grey.
@ Mike Parr
Given the chance of getting as far away from the agricultural gang-masters as possible would seem smart to me if I was an economic migrant!
It wouldn’t be too difficult based on the second map to decide where the Post-Brexit EU border should run.
It just follows the old Celtic borders really doesn’t it?
🙂
@ Andy Crow
Which begs a raft of questions what is it about Celtic culture that makes its people trans-national in outlook although the mainstream media portray it as insular, an obvious paradox! Is a Celtic culture more ethical, for example, and why? Is it the type of religion? Is it ethical customs handed down? Do such customs stem from having to survive in a more rugged terrain where helping each other makes survival sense. Is it imperialist oppression by the English? Is it a mixture? Are the answers lost in the mists of time?
Look at Celtic Christianity and you might find many of the answers
Fundamentally different approach to that faith
More ethical and environmental for a start
Schofield poses a question and posits some answers at 12;38pm on 8 Dec:
Which begs a raft of questions what is it about Celtic culture that makes its people trans-national in outlook although the mainstream media portray it as insular, an obvious paradox! Is a Celtic culture more ethical, for example, and why? Is it the type of religion? Is it ethical customs handed down? Do such customs stem from having to survive in a more rugged terrain where helping each other makes survival sense. Is it imperialist oppression by the English? Is it a mixture? Are the answers lost in the mists of time?
I’d suggest that all of the above apply to some extent, but of course the last 100 years of cultural homogenisation via national media, the BBC in particular, have tempered matters somewhat. The fact that regional distinctions still exist just goes to show how deeply embedded they are.
In the case of Scotland the rugged terrain is perhaps less of a factor than the climate. The east side of Scotland is markedly drier than the west, so agriculture is less marginal there. On the west side crop-growing is less predictable and harvesting windows can be much shorter so communal activity has always been an important factor.
However, in terms of the peoples’ mindset, the influence of the Normans and their supremacist policies were less pervasive in Scotland and Ireland than in England and Wales. Of course there were Normans in positions of power and influence in both Scotland and Ireland, but the Scots had an established line of monarchy at national level, as did the Irish at regional level, and this must have curtailed the Norman influence to some extent. By the time Bruce, a Norman by descent, gained the Scottish throne two and a half centuries after 1066, he had been scottified and utterly defiant in his attitude to English claims to the Scottish throne.
English imperialist ambitions over centuries have never been forgotten in Scotland and Ireland and have resulted in deep and continuing suspicion as to the true motives underlying the policies of successive Westminster governments. In truth I can’t see this changing in Scotland, in spite of the best efforts of the media and the Tory faithful, as the history of Scotland is now being taught more comprehensively in schools than it was when I was being forcefed Empire and English history in a Scottish school in the 1950s.
We’ve know this for a goodly number of years…..
I doubt if Westminster will even acknowledge this…!
Oh dear.
Wrong side of the fence and all that.
Can anyone tell me how one applies for Scottish citizenship?
I now feel such like an outsider here do you thing I could qualify as a refugee of BREXIT?
Just come and live here, and then vote for an independent country.
I see “Labourism” (concept developed by Ralph Miliband according to Anthony Barnett) is alive and well. You’d almost think they’d prefer the Tories in power than to compromise their sacred principles of Labour ruling alone. https://www.thenational.scot/news/17284901.mcdonnell-rules-out-possibility-of-labour-snp-westminster-deal/
I fear so
Add the SNP into the mix too
Graham Hewitt says:
I see “Labourism” […] is alive and well. ……… https://www.thenational.scot/news/17284901.mcdonnell-rules-out-possibility-of-labour-snp-westminster-deal/ ”
Labourism ?? Arrogance, more like.
The arrogance that cost labour the election in 2017. And may well do so again. I don’t like these people, but I’d rather have had Corbyn as PM than May; even if he would have been ousted by his own party before now.
Not to dispute the Scottish difference, but the map would have looked a bit different if it was drawn based on population. Noting that Greater London’s population is 1.5 x that of Scotland and was as solidly Remain, albeit with some different drivers.
But what is it about those bits of Eastern England that have shown consistent xenophobic tendencies over the years. A legacy of the Vikings perhaps?! A recent cultural map did suggest a worrying overlap with the areas ruled by the Danes.
I think you could also overlay eastern European migration……
I think you’ll find those views predate Eastern European migration.
Staying in B&Bs and hotels in Scotland – plenty of Eastern (and other) Europeans but apparently without the same degree of resentment. Memorably a fish processor in the Western Isles where we had to search for an English speaker! London of course has large numbers without the same reaction.
And I t’s about skilled people (where we have chronic shortages across different sectors) as much as unskilled.
There are parts of the country where the reaction has been much stronger, tending to overlap with traditional UKIP strongholds. ‘English’ culture is far from homogenous.
Robin Stafford says:
“Not to dispute the Scottish difference, but the map would have looked a bit different if it was drawn based on population…..”
And of course the population differences between London and Scotland and the cultural mix would have been markedly different without the Highland clearances.
In a sense the history, in so far as it tells us perhaps why, is unimportant, or less important, than where we have got to; and the lower of those maps in Richard’s post, consistent with the Brexit referendum colour-coded map, show a very clear difference of opinion either side what is currently the Anglo-Scottish border.
It has been made very clear since the Brexit referendum that the government (indeed the entire parliament) in Westminster is incurious as to why this might be and chooses to ignore it. I don’t think that a clever strategy on their part. It has bred considerable resentment north of the border and the English attitude towards the Holyrood government (elected by a PR voting system) is positively poisonous, where it is not totally dismissive.
As my great great grand parents were cleared, I might be more aware and better read than you realise.. the cottage they ended up in is still there, where my grand mother grew up.
Basically the land was stolen,cleared, as in ethnic cleansing,the people given some sort of title to the land.The use of the land has to some extent been abused for rich pickings, for the few.Already mentioned a larger amount of people lived on the land,in a community helping each other,the wild life that abounded,is now open to slaughter of many species.These wealthy immigrants do not provide Scotland with any wealth other than their own,but are kept in position by faith to landed gentry and their particular party preference.If you buy land in Norway you live on that land for certain amount of time and pay the the fees.(Without hand outs from another country.
Robin Stafford says:
“As my great great grand parents were cleared, I might be more aware and better read than you realise……”
My sympathy.
Much good that is when the damage is done and long ago. And I was born in England so ‘mea culpa’. I’m sorry. 🙁 I have no intention of going back.
We should acknowledge that a lot of the clearances were carried out by and on behalf of fellow Scots. The Moray man, Patrick Sellar, being among the most notorious of the enforcers (on behalf of the Duke of Sutherland).
Andy Wightman’s book “The poor had no lawyers” describes the theft of the land by the big landowners with the full backing of parliament and the law.
Quite an interesting summary of the current Brexit position from Iain Macwhirter: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17286144.iain-macwhirter-hard-brexit-is-dead-so-why-cant-we-just-lay-it-to-rest/
Graham Hewitt says:
“We should acknowledge that a lot of the clearances were carried out by and on behalf of fellow Scots…..”
When the English want to roast a Scotsman they can always find a fellow Scot to turn the spit….. (or words to that effect).
If were not already a long established tradition it would perhaps be called Mundellism (?)
Robert Kee says much about the Irish in his book ‘The Green Flag’ (1972-2000). The Brits were always good at getting the locals to work against each other in Ireland too. Sneaky bleeders the English. Now People like Fox and Mogg want to do the same to their fellow Englishmen via America.
BTW – it’s an excellent read that book.
I agree re that book
I worry sometimes that while we are having polite discussions on the nitty gritty of govt policy and critiquing Labour’s approach to economic policy and Brexit, the forces on the right have lost all sense of integrity and are undermining our democracy in the most dangerous manner possible. I have just heard the news that the government is funding a secret Scottish based ‘charity’ who have been attacking Labour by spreading misinformation. It is as if our world is turned upside down and the conspiracy theorists have got it right. https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-office-funds-2m-infowars-13707574
I’ve only read this source, but was passed on to me from an academic I know.
Has anyone heard more?
Nell says:
“It is as if our world is turned upside down and the conspiracy theorists have got it right. ”
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-office-funds-2m-infowars-13707574
Why would anyone doubt this is true ? The conspiracy theorists were always right… there is a conspiracy, but it comes with some provisos. Nobody is quite sure what the conspiracy is precisely about at any given time and nobody is ever quite sure who the conspirators are.
The general gist of the conspiracy is elite domination; always, but there are many elites larger and smaller, both here and abroad and in some cases probably transnational too.
We know damn fine the socialists and progressives are seen as subversive elements seeking to undermine the elite establishment status quo, so it is not unreasonable to expect the establishment will take steps to protect itself and its narrow interests.
What is surprising is that anyone should find this surprising. Evidence is a constant stream and much of it in plain sight.
Richard, just checked out, it is being picked up by the Mirror, but no-one else. I imagine how the government will handle it, if it doesn’t just disappear, will be to announce that they gave funds to Statecraft to fight Russian propaganda, they had no idea ‘shocked’ blah blah, funding gets withdrawn, and government moves on to next ‘think tank’. What scares me, and it really scares me, is that, if this is true, there are clearly no limits to which the Tory’s will go to maintain power. I naively thought there would be some limits. It hasn’t made much of a splash on Twitter, and comments I have read seem to be of the ‘what else do you expect’ variety. People seem to think it is a normal level of corruption. That in itself is worrying. It speaks to a very profound breakdown in trust. Anyway, I shall calm down now. No point in worrying about something I have zero control over.
The map suggests to me something more social than political. And to avoid any vitriolic response this is the light hearted musings of a worried man on the complications that bring people to their decisions.
My experience is leading me to live in a paradox. By upbringing I am English, I sound English (working class) when I speak. Genetically the picture is more complicated, the male line is Scottish, from me born in Dumfrieshire in the 40s to Peter born in Deskford in 1660. The female line is mainly Scottish until the late 19th Century when a drop in fortunes coincided with some Irish input. My DNA also indicates the possibility of Neanderthal influences much to my wife’s amusement. So I am a standard Briton, or mongrel, the terms are interchangeable.
For a while I lived (happily) in North Wales where the combination of my mangled Welsh speaking combined with my protestation of Scots heritage earned me the nickname ‘Jockney’. I have experienced Nationalism from all sides. In England I (as a perceived Englishman) listened to the complaints about the money WE are giving to an ungrateful Scotland. In Wales I saw the beautiful Glaslyn mountain gorge daubed with the painted slogans Dim Coloneiddio & Saes Allan (no colonisation & English out). In Aberdeen I was treated to a fine display of a grasp of Anglo Saxon language and invited to shift my English arse back over the border. It is fair to say my view of Nationalism is negative.
Here’s the paradox I anticipate moving to a nationalist Scotland. Is my choice political or social?. Westminster is blinkered, in the coming months we will see where loyalties really lie. The city of London will receive it’s dividend for supplying 50% of the tory party funds. The desperate needs of the south western peninsula will be ignored. The complaints from the north of England will go unanswered. The political tumbleweed will continue to roll across the wilderness outside the M25.
I see a bright future above Hadrian’s wall. My nephew has just started a degree course in computing in Edinburgh (without fees) he had a choice from a wide range of modern technological subjects to choose from. Government backed R&D into sustainable power has resulted in a three week period where Scotland’s energy needs were entirely met from green sources. Tidal energy research holds great prospects of creating modern clean industry. Iceland’s problems meeting the demands for digital server storage are just one opportunity. Air pollution in the cities is a concern but nowhere near its English counterparts. http://www.scottishairquality.scot/latest/ Policy on this follows EU ambitions http://www.scottishairquality.scot/air-quality/legislation . Just some of the signals that the Scottish Government is listening to its people. It isn’t perfect and the economic plans seem to be in need of a revision but generally I am more optimistic of the outcome there than here in Somerset.
Could it be that the experience of the Darien Project has left a folk memory that has shaped the way Scottish people think. Back then an already wealthy but greedy and aloof elite led a nation into bankruptcy that was exploited by greedy bankers in London. It worked for the London elite but the resentments still rumble on 300 years later. Brexit may be the new Darien in reverse.
Thanks