I was trying to explain our Brexit options to someone not quite convinced they were so limited last night.
I ended up explaining that we could have Canada.
Or Canada+.
Or maybe Switzerland.
But more likely Norway.
With others thinking only the Jersey option really works.
Whichever way we looked at it we were probably going to get a Second Hand International Treaty.
Or a SHIT deal.
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Second Hand Island Treatment more like. SHIT whatever way you look at it.
The more I think about it, and look at the hapless bunch of comedians currently running the country, if, indeed that is what one can get away with calling it, then perhaps it is time to replace the national anthem with Gerry Rafferty’s Stuck in the Middle.
We are definitely suffering from a distinct case of “Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right……..” And that is all within the Tory party!
I hasten to add that Mrs May is definitely “stuck in the middle”, but on her own.
Was Gerry Rafferty in Stealer’s Wheel ?
Yes
I could be pretty ‘shit’ if we stay in. I’d say even shittier!
In 2012 ECB President Mario Draghi promised to “do whatever it takes” to prevent Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland from defaulting on their debt. The ECB cut rates to just about zero and began a QE program that eventually bought almost one-third of the outstanding debt of each eurozone country. The ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy offset a persistent fiscal tightening across the eurozone and helped to produce a belated recovery from Europe’s 2008-2012 recession.
This seemingly improved state of affairs didn’t work well for everyone. The Italian economy stagnated and unemployment persisted at high levels. Moreover, Italy’s public sector debt remains at ~140% of GDP, far higher than eurozone rules allow. The fact that Italy has relatively low private sector debt doesn’t cut any ice with the EU. They don’t care about private debt levels.
So what next? Austerity doesn’t work for Italy. So the response from the EU will be that even more austerity is needed to fix the problem. And when doesn’t work or the Italians tell the EU to get stuffed what then? The ECB can’t loosen monetary policy any more than it has, and in any case the Germans have indicated they’ve just about had enough of QE.
There’s an almighty shit fight brewing over the channel and we should think twice about wanting to be a part of all that. Yes, I know we don’t use the euro, but the EU does and that’s what we have just voted not to be a part of.
You know this is not an EU issue but a euro issue
It’s getting very hard to avoid you really either have nothing useful to say or choose not to do so if you could
The problem in the Euro Zone is that the Germans are totally nuts when it comes to money. I am married to one so I know, and I also have my late mother-in-law’s very good collection of inflation money (spans a period from about 1905 to 1923 going from a 1 mark note up to a 500 million mark one). Schaueble when he was Finance Minister decided to repay the entire National Debt, for no good reason other than debts are ‘sins’ (schulden) and should always be got rid of. Though of course that rather overlooks the fact that money is itself a debt (of the state to me), so presumably he wanted to move to cowrie shells or something. They have also totally forgotten the fact that the Great Inflation was actually solved fairly easily and it did not have that much effect on those in employment (wages go up) or without any savings (how can you lose if you don’t have anything?). It also wasn’t responsible for Hitler (the Munich putsch failed). What brought Hitler to power was the deflation (austerity anyone?) of 1930 to 1933. Losing your job had rather more effect on the average person than somebody who was affluent having their savings devalued.
So Germany has been following a rather classic Mercantilist approach of export as much as possible, import as little as possible and in effect get the rest of the World (or rest of the Euro Zone) to pay the bill. Before the Crash German banks were recycling the resultant surpluses by then lending the foreigners (Ireland, Greece, etc) the cash to pay for their BMWs, etc. Clearly you can’t run a business for long if you have to lend the customers the money to pay their bills. And indeed the thing duly fell apart. So then you had the great bailout where the private losses of the German (and French and UK) banks were ‘nationalised’ and turned into Euro Zone state debts instead. I don’t think any of the Greek bailout money actually went to Greece – what it bailed out was Deutsche Bank, etc. The fact that the Great Bailout had nothing to do with helping Greece, Ireland etc but everything to do with halting the collapse of Deutsche Bank, Commerz Bank, etc has never been explained to the German public.
So all that is actually needed to get the Euro Zone moving properly is for Germany to drop the silly idea of running a huge Government surplus in order to pay off the National Debt, and instead increase spending / cut taxes (e.g. VAT would be a good one) so that Germans spend more / import more / travel more.
I thought that the Italian problem would crop up. Very original.
How can it be ‘shittier’ in the Euro zone when Italy will still have a borderless trade deal using the same currency as the rest of the Zone? When there is no ‘Northern Island’ problem?
Make no mistake Peter – it is us who will have it shittier – not Italy. And even if the shittiness is just as bad it will be for different reasons. Ours in the UK seem self created.
Have you noticed that even though we in the UK do not use the Euro that the Tories have still gone and put us into austerity for 10 lost years? We are already in the shit Peter because effective demand is being killed. And now they want deliver BREXIT taking – what? – another 3% of growth out of the economy potentially? There’s ‘shit fight’ here Peter mate – never mind ‘over there’. Hadn’t you noticed?
I do however wish the present Italian Government well. I’d like to think that their actions will precipitate the downfall of the Euro (and the ECB) eventually. But that can only happen if you are still part of a treaty.
The UK is a signatory to the Stability and Growth Pact so the Commission still has the right to sanction the UK if the UK’s budget is insufficiently neoliberal.
Pretending the Stability and Growth Pact does not exist seems to be standard dogma for Remainers. It is how bizarre from an MMT advocate and someone who did a terrific job of highlighting the folly the SNP’s growth commission which is based on the SGP.
And ounreally think the SGP applies?
Even the Italian experiencecat present is politics and not economics
I have no doubt that the SGP would be used as a reason for civil servants not to implement any truly progressive budget proposed by a Labour government.
The threat is the same as TTIP. The UK would never actually be subject to investor courts, all that is required is that the existence of investor courts are used to restrict the scope of state intervention in the economy. Tyranny by technocracy.
You have not noticed it was not?
I voted Remain because the EU is the only, rational, persuasive solution for Europe, post the desolation of European civilisation after two world wars, and the systematic development and application of industrial scale killing. We must not forget, or ever think that we know better. We don’t. The rest is, frankly, loose change. No other problems are not fixable.
Brexit means that Britain will inevitably work to undermine the EU after leaving, and return Europe to some form of dysfunctionally contingent ‘balance of power’ politics that suited Britain so well and to our advantage in the 19th century, and ended in the utter ruination of everything. Brexit is a British decision to live in the past, even though it does not exist, and cannot be recalled.
My proposition is not a mere hypothesis. We are already working to undermine the EU. For two years I have watched a ragged collection of poor quality British politicians shuffle round European capitals trying to find some ‘weak spot’ they can use to persuade that member of the 27 to resist European consensus, in order that the British may prise apart the unity of the EU over Brexit. This ‘policy’ is wholly, and grimly destructive in intent. The scene is already set for our dismal future; as we continue to probe for any expoitative advantage from diffrences in the EU, at whomsoever’s cost and with whatever consequences to anyone. Unfortunately the consequences will eventually come home to roost in Britain too; they always do.
You are right John: England has never taken the EU seriously.
The chickens are coming home for the EU of combining a set of unwilling national people’s in order to create a political empire vs an economic powerhouse.
only war on the battlefield or war economically create nations (see Scotland) and the opaque European Bank is the tool using the euro and Brussels junkets as the guiding mind.
Old european leaders minds are too trapped by the world wars and too ego driven to of accepted part power.
Like the tale of icarus elated with 30yrs of stable growth yet flew too high and melted his wings. Ivory towers with psychophants are known for out of touch choices.
Merkels 1 million refugees welcome etc being another one to come back to roost with a nasty peck.
So you want a Europe of divided nation states? That worked well, didn’t it?
The sheer irresponsibility of your desire is staggering. How many tens of millions will die for it?
The problem with British politicians, most of them, is that they cannot really quite understand THE BRITISH EMPIRE HAS LONG BEEN HISTORY.
It was on its last legs going into WW2, and sunk with no trace immediately after it.
A large amount of countries remember it quite well though.
Brexit is providing them with immense satisfaction.
There is going to be no good ending to this.
Face it, the “upper” classes are not that bright, and they’re scurrying around the world trying to find secure places to hide their cash and assets while telling “The People” to tighten their belts and “The Empire is Forever”.
Don’t even get me started on Dyson….
Sadly John, you are all too correct, but as you say:
“Unfortunately the consequences will eventually come home to roost in Britain too; they always do.”
Well, ‘we’, as in a certain type of foolish and arrogant British (or should that be English?) exceptionalist will certainly deserve all the negative consequences of Brexit, if it happens. The trouble is, a lot of us who don’t deserve these consequences will also suffer. By the look of it, the UK leaving won’t be the end of the EU, since they have prepared for it properly. The UK on the other hand…..
I have to say, if Brexit results in the break up of the UK it’ll be nothing more than just desserts for the liars and conmen behind Brexit. An independent Scotland, with a proper voting system, no HoL nonsense, no monarchy, and with an understanding of how the economy really works via MMT – bring it on.
You say you have a good understanding of economic theory and yet you think you can separate euro issues from EU issues?
If (when?) the euro fails it will take the EU down with it. I’m sure you must know that.
Maybe
But you cannot be sure
What I know is the EU can and does work without the euro
Actually, I also think it would survive it.
I say maybe only because neither of us know
But I do know we are not in the euro and I do know therefore that your objections on that basis are wholly artificial.
I agree with Richard’s position totally. The currency might fail but all the other infrastructure does not necessarily have to follow down the toilet. It fact it would be suicidal – something that seems to be an English tendency rather than a European one at the moment.
So Richard are you advocating a return to the old common market??… without the wrecking ball that is the Euro but with a trade agreement? Just let currencies float and give the southern countries a chance? With the EU to fund the transition. Neither the remainers or exiters seem to pay any attention to damage and economic hardship the pursuit of monetary and fiscal unity has caused…
Haven’t you notuced tgat is pretty much what we and and a fair number of other EU states have?
With necessary political common ground built in to, lest we forget?
“Haven’t you notuced tgat is pretty much what we and and a fair number of other EU states have?
With necessary political common ground built in to, lest we forget?”
I don’t think it it that way at all..the EU won’t abandon the Euro (and the ambition of monetary and fiscal union) voluntarily, it will only come by crisis and with crisis comes political conflict not harmony..witness Italy. Those wanting long term European unity have to advocate the voluntary end of the euro and argue against those with vested interests in its survival namely Germany.
Forgive me for saying so, but I live in the real world and not your paranoid fantasy
What annoys me is the ‘outrage’ that the EU is making up the importance of the Northern Irish /ROI border.
The majority of Irish on both sides of the border don’t want it and I would imagine, see it as an imposition by English politicians (not Scottish ).
A ‘border’ on the Irish Sea is more likely to keep the province in the UK. Polls show that a hard border would push public opinion towards unification.
The lack of willingness to create a bespoke deal highlights that the EU has become a self-sustaining and reproducing bureaucracy rather than an institution to facilitate international co-operation.
I suspect that they would not carry out their ludicrous threats to halt functioning, productive and vital economic activities on purely administrative grounds at it would highlight the absurdity of the leverage the bureaucratic and legalistic classes have carved out for themselves in modern society.
Hang on: the evidence I quote completely negates your claim. There are lots of tailor made deals. But we asked for an undeliverable one and always knew it. In that case of course they cannot agree. Why should they? And why are you arrogant enough to think they should?
My perception is that making bespoke deals is no problem to increase integration but that the EU are unwilling to do so in a situation where integration is to be reduced.
You mean you are shocked that a membership organisation is not inclined to undermine itself?
Really?
Stu
What do you expect? The EU are holding the line because if they give way too much to the UK, then other states may want the same and then – well – you have not got an EU have you? It’s called having all your cake AND eating it. Like we had before two World Wars – yes? Balanced trade treaties are about give and take. Right?!! Win/Win. Right?
What I know about the EU is that it has I think contributed to the peace we have seen in a region which ripped itself apart twice in quick succession in the early part of the 20th Century costing millions of lives and millions of bank notes – and for what? More to remember at the Rememberence Day parade?
The best way to remember the Fallen is to NOT do it again. To create a world where it is less likely and the EU has done that. The threat comes from Neo-lib ideas that have inculcated the original idea.
And I contend again (and will continue to do so) that it is the Neo-liberalism inherent in the membership states that people are rebelling against or feeling angry with now – not the EU itself.
Many BREXITERs in my opinion don’t even know who they are actually angry at. Blind men and women shooting at the world.
The answer Stu? Look at your own sodding Government will you?
No Stu, that is not the case. The EU seeks to preserve an open border between NI and the RoI to preserve the working of the GFA, in order to keep peace in NI. It does so because the EU is an organisation that has a commitment to peace and cooperation, both economic and political.
This is not some devious plot to scupper Brexit, whatever the anti EU fanatics say. The failure to reach an agreement is wholly down to the British government’s inability to follow a rational course of behaviour.
1) May decided to take the UK out of the SM and CU to appease the fanatics in her own party. Had she had the sense and courage to say the UK would stay in them more than 2 years ago we would not be talking about this problem now.
2) So the EU sought another way to avoid a hard border in Ireland, by stating that there would be a backstop of NI remaining in the CU or a border in the Irish Sea. The British government signed up to this in December 2017.
3) Now the UK government is trying to slide out of an agreement it signed up to because the irrational fanatics of the DUP and ERG are holding her as a political hostage. The DUP want the UK totally out of any kind of association with the EU, but they want to keep the existing arrangements that go with being INSIDE the EU. Which is totally impossible.
That’s why the Ireland problem is the sticking point. 100% the fault of the UK government.
SOTD,
You are being too kind in 3) when you say ‘Now the UK government is trying to slide out of an agreement it signed up to’. I would say that renege on is a more accurate description.
The description perfidious Albion seems only too appropriate. And these chancers wonder why the EU doesn’t trust them and want everything written down clearly?!
Will we ever tire of this debate? Probably not for a generation at least. Just as you think all aspects have been exhausted something new pops up. And there are still 157 days to go ’til the bewitching hour (actually 11pm local time). If it wasn’t so divisive it would make for good dinner conversation.
Today I watched Anthony Barnett’s (he of ‘Open Democracy’) recent presentation which I thought made some sensible observations and recommendations in dealing with the Sovereignty issue (which obviously has monetary implications) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ksdrYYUY2w&t=1526s. Worth a watch IMHO.
And for something a bit different are Michael Moore’s opinions on Trump & Brexit offered in his C4 interview with Krishnan Guru-Murthy – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRRxG4L4upA (apologies to those who have already seen it).
I’ll go along with John S Warren to say that at this time in history, on a macro level, it’s a shameful, narcissistic betrayal of our European allies. Whereas, all the legion micro-components are fixable if the will and competence are there.
What are the bookies offering for a no-deal? And I wonder how many in the City are shorting the pound? Such patriotism! Of course the truth is it’s all a massive US-funded neoliberal plot to destabilise the UK, finally subjugating it to the hegemony of the North American Global Corporate Empire – NAGCE inc. The trouble is it seems to be working.
“Such patriotism!”.
It is worth remembering that the catastrophic failure of 3.5% War Loan, issued by the British Government in 1914 and subject to a comprehensive, iron official cover-up of the failure to raise the money; a cover-up that lasted over 100 years, well into our own smug era (we are the masters of the ‘cover-up’ in Britain; well, its something to crow about, I suppose) was exclusively caused by the fact that capital; the City of London was not prepared to back Britain in the War in 1914. Capital did not like the odds. These are the essential facts. Draw your own conclusions.
Dr Tim
Interesting comments. What comes across to me is that despite the Euro, the member countries still seem to store a memory value of their past currency. It’s as though there is a shadow currency in each nation. Ultimately it supports my view that the Euro was /is a really bad idea. The Germans (and other nations) cannot go on treating the Euro as if it is their DM. To me the euro is a really artificial currency – no better than monopoly money to be honest. It’s got to go. A bridge too far as they say.
Stu
‘Pretending the Stability and Growth Pact does not exist seems to be standard dogma for Remainers.’
Rhubarb! We advocate staying in to change the SGP which is deeply flawed and is the reason that the Euro Zone was so slow to deal with the GFC.
What you should be more concerned about my dear Stu is the existence of Neo-liberalism in your Government which is a member of a treaty with other Neo-lib thinking nations. Sort that out and the SGP and everything else will follow I promise you.
“Rhubarb! We advocate staying in to change the SGP which is deeply flawed and is the reason that the Euro Zone was so slow to deal with the GFC.”
You would be as well to attempt to end austerity by joining the Tory party. The EU is a neoliberal institution and has been designed to remain that way. The labour share of wages in EU nations has declined greatly during the past 40 years. Do we ever hear the EU state any desire for that to be reversed?
Yes
And since the EU is made up of member states those who oppose austerity also get a say
If we leave we have none
But you’re not noticing or listening Stu
And I am not one to tolerate trolling
@ Dr Tim Rideout,
“So all that is actually needed to get the Euro Zone moving properly is for Germany to drop the silly idea of running a huge Government surplus in order to pay off the National Debt, and instead increase spending / cut taxes (e.g. VAT would be a good one) so that Germans spend more / import more / travel more.”
There’s possibly a little more to it than this, but I do agree it would be a good start. You’re also right that “the Germans are totally nuts when it comes to money.” In my working life I used to meet up with German friends and colleagues, usually like myself who were electronics engineers, and who all are very intelligent people. Getting your head around Maxwell’s equations is much more intellectually challenging than understanding the flow of euros in the EZ. So, explaining just why it was a silly idea to run a huge a surplus wasn’t that difficult. They’d then say things like “Yes that’s a very interesting POV , Peter. We should perhaps think more along those lines ourselves in Germany”
However, when we met up again a few weeks or months later, they’d be as bad as ever in their neoliberal/ordoliberal interpretation of the economic world. If the system isn’t working for Italy or Greece then that’s because they aren’t obeying the rules. End of story.
I really don’t hold out much hope that they’ll ever change.
If you assume the world will not change it won’t
I guess you’re pretty keen on it not changing
You really do not fit in here
Please stop wasting my time
But will you force change or are happy to sit there accept the Euro and the misery it has caused? Why don’t you advocate floating exchange rates?
I have always advocated floating exchange rates
I have always opposed the euro
Why do you make up that I support things that I do not?
Never seen you write in that context, it’s always wholeheartedly supporting the EU, that’s why
You should not jump to conclusions then
Marie nailed it with her SHIT acronym. I want to stay in the EU for economic and political reasons. But then, living in the North when not abroad, my sense is we’d have been better off up here as a Federal State of Germany for the last 40 years. Greater Sweden would have been better than Greater Manchester. Greater Manchester is about the same size as Northern Ireland and I am more interested in a backstop here against financialism than a border that can’t be erected because of the “squabbles”. Two tours there leave me wondering how everyone fouled-up on what was a fair and courageous civil rights movement. We have been backstopping prejudices over there for 50 years. Translated to a population the size of the USA, the ‘squabbles’ would have left half-a-million dead. Oue political system failed in NI and is clearly failing us now. After 100 years of universal education we have a population at least 50% incapable of reasoning over something as simple as throwing in with a democratic Europe. Recent ‘economic genetics’ is demonstrating that similarly gene-mapped poor kids do much worse than rich kids through our education system – hardly productive for a ‘work smarter society’ (Thom and Papajohn coming to Nature soon). In or out of the EU we will struggle. Just as “Catholic” voices were not understood or received with any fair validation, the voice of reason has been concealed in public discourse in favour of shit-throwing on the EU issues. Presumably we now think the “Catholics” had a point concerning pretty vile repression in NI. We need to understand the frustrations of the “out brigade” better – if only to find a better politics once they have stranded us up shit creek without a paddle.
It occurs the aim is to crash out leaving us effectively unable to trade. With that in mind, consider the reasoning behind distributing benefits cards with a preselected amount on them as opposed to benefits cash, cards which may only be used for agreed items in agreed outlets. This supplies those outlets, typically a chain operation with national’local nodes, with a captive market, one which any old crap can be foisted onto. If it makes them sick, you aren’t bothered because you won’t be responsible for getting them well, the NHS will, meaning govt spending will. I would assume there are vast profits to be made in an operation like this, plenty of gravy to spread round with the politicians who make it possible then. I believe this is what’s behind Duncan Smith’s frequent calls for benefits cards to be introduced here.
I note that he’s been off to see Barnier himself, together with other noted right-wingers, clearly unsatisfied with the speed or lack thereof with which we proceed towards Brexit. He seems, to my eyes, excessively keen on Brexiting as hard as possible and as soon as possible. What could be behind this?
It could well be that, post a hard Brexit, Smith’s American chums will then agree to supply us with food, which, as we’ll be effectively a captive market, we’ll have trouble saying no to. I doubt we’ll have to worry about chlorinated chickens, in fact I imagine we’ll be praying for them after a few months of the swill they’ll be sending over, created especially for us, regulation-free in the name of necessary expedience, at vast cost to the govt, but once again there’ll be plenty of gravy to spread around the politicians who facilitate this. Like IDS. If people get sick, and they will, then the American insurance companies who’ve replaced the NHS will be in a useful position to profit from all this. Again, plenty of gravy for them to reward the politicians who bring this about with. SHIT indeed, I don’t think people realise at all how shitty it’s going to be.
I think that it is right and proper to look at the U.S. side to all of this Bill. The U.S. seems to be the ‘mother country’ of Neo-liberalism for the Tories and New Labourites.
Gillian Tett noted many moons ago that the American economy has for sometime stopped expanding within its own borders and needs now to continue expanding rapaciously beyond them. This can only mean becoming more active in overseas markets.
North American Capitalism has hollowed out its own profit base – the reduction in wages and less growth in the middle class (or its contraction) over there means that people are actually beginning not to pay for dental and health plans so corporate profits in those sectors are down. They’ll be some nice fat juicy profits to be made out of NHS contracts though as I am sure Dr Liam Fox has been pointing out (I’m told that the markets for US health providers lept up in value when the Tories got in in 2010).
There are parallels with Europe – some of our transport infrastructure is now being ran by European companies – but that is under EU rules. We know that we could re-nationalise this infrastructure if we wanted to in the public interest.
But one of the things that really gets me about the BREXIT bovver boys is that they are basically proposing deals with the USA whose president says time and again ‘ America First!’.
With that sort of attitude do we really think that we’ll get a fair deal with the U.S.? Looking at the USA’s historical duplicity (advocating free trade but protecting its own and artificially maintaining the value of the dollar whilst insisting that you convert your currency to dollars before you settle your bills)?
And you can say bollocks to any special relationship. It is a historical fact that the U.S. stopped supporting the UK in WWII almost immediately after hostilities ceased and transferred funding to Germany. Attlee had to ask for a loan instead. And it also meant that the U.S. was able to get its hands on key areas of the old British empire like Iran and Iraq. Yet over here all I hear is people slagging off Germany!!
For ‘special relationship’ you can instead see England (not Scotland or Ireland or the Welsh!) as America’s ‘Foreign Policy Gymp’. That’s what we are . That’s all we are to them. A Gymp. Oh and a place where they can park their warplanes and missiles when they’ve made too many of them.
So, the USA will take us to the cleaners in my view . The BREXIT goons need to take this into consideration. You think the EU is poor value for money? Huh………..just you wait.
PSR, if only you were Prime Minister, not the useless Maybot. And if only the left wing supporters of Brexit, on this forum and in the Labour party and electorate, could read this and get their heads around the fact that Brexit is a con trick funded and pushed by the hard right free market fanatics that these leftists say they’re so opposed to.
And the aim, as is obvious to anyone who looks at the people Liam Fox has had meetings with, is exactly what you and Bill Kruse have pointed out. So what if the EU has pursued via the ECB and Euro, some elements of neoliberalism? Compared to what the Brexiters want, that’s nothing. After all, the hard rightists who hate the ‘socialist’ EU, are the ones pushing hardest for a full blown deregulated, low tax, low (or should that be no?) public services libertarian paradise.
They (the control-freak ruling class) will call it libertarian but neglect to mention that the liberty is only for the chosen few. It will be the same as when they adopted only part of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nation and ignored the bits he said were important, yet had the check to use his name on their policies. They did the same with Kuznets’s GDP calculations. The ruling class is fundamentally dishonest, repeatedly and with vigour.
They’ll be taking the libertarian name (in vain), but keeping the monopolies and cartels. The few will be free to poison, pollute and profiteer, but the many will have no freedom of entry into the market. Those barriers to entry will still be turnstyles into which one must insert a large sum of money &/or an old school tie. If you don’t have those, then clearly you are a bad & deficient person and therefore justify the short shrift their greed & mean-spiritedness wanted to give you from the start. Who will rid me of these turbulent politicians and bring back common sense and community?