There always has to be a moment when history says things changed. What ‘things' might be differs from case to case but the fact is that change is guaranteed during any significant process. Sometimes it is so gradual it is hardly noticed, but if that's the case history does not take note. When history pays attention it's precisely because the change was so significant that there had to be a pivotal moment where a trajectory changed. The EU referendum was one such moment. It may be that we'e living through another right now.
The Politics Home email has these headlines this morning:
That's the vast majority of the political news relating the Brexit and the fall out of the confusion it is creating, most especially for the Conservatives.
The sense that the government has no idea what it is doing is overwhelming now.
It seems absolutely obvious that it is riven from top to bottom.
And through it all is a collapse in Tory discipline, and conduct, as marked as that which tainted the entire Major administration of the 1990s.
The difference is that Major, quite remarkably, had the charisma to survive (which does not say much for the requirement for political charisma in modern day political leadership). There can be little doubt that Theresa May does not share that good fortune: it is all too apparent that many would happily see her go, barring the concern many have about who might replace her when a great many Tory MPs cannot imagine themselves serving either Johnson or Rees-Mogg.
What we have then is the moment when the government has begun freefall without a parachute. That always ends painfully. I think this will.
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Major had a majority, however slim – 20, I think at election. Nevertheless with a need for a 2/3 majority of MPs to vote for another general election, I don’t see those turkeys voting for Christmas, do you?
Chaos will require it
Events, dear boy, events. With the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in place, there are three ways to get to an early general election – 2/3 of the MPs voting for it, the government losing a motion of confidence, and the act itself being amended. Only the first one requires a supermajority, although the third would require a new Act to pass through both houses of Parliament.
Notwithstanding their ugly internal machinations, the Conservatives are pretty good at holding on to power. (Perhaps one drives the other?) May’s government may fall apart, but I doubt the party will want another general election before March 2019. There is a job to do, and then they can say they delivered what the public said it wanted (before it all turns to dust). I’d be very surprised if May’s successor would want to take the poisoned chalice from her now. Better for it to go wrong on her watch so she can be blamed, and someone else can charge in and disown it all.
Watching Theresa May’s government in action is like watching a car crash in slow motion.
We have, I think conditioned by the Trump show, given up believing that we must NOW have reached the bottom as successive new lows are reached, in incompetence, mendacity and self-sealing. Not for the first time have things being happening in parallel in the US and UK.
There will be parallel but very different denouements too, both likely to begin this year.
I have a hunch that this Tory govt will collapse over something unrelated to Brexit. Some banana skin we do not now foresee in addition to all the known difficulties.
Interesting idea
Odds anyone?
On what?
Paul has “a hunch that this Tory govt will collapse over something unrelated to Brexit. Some banana skin we do not now foresee in addition to all the known difficulties.” Agreed and my hunches include:
Health: May is clearly under great pressure and any interruption of her duties as PM through a health crisis could precipitate a civil war among the hopefuls fighting for a shot at the ‘Big Job’, which in turn might force a “no confidence” vote.
Ulster: This is probably the least stable part of the UK and any number of issues could cause the spark – the latest furore over sentencing of informants in the Troubles, or the long-festering “Cash-for-Ash” scandal, or realisation that the border proposals are unworkable, or an internal political crisis arising from the failure to restore a workable power-sharing agreement, or a scandal arising out of the deployment of the bribe money paid by the Tories for DUP support at Westminster, or the DUP suddenly making unacceptable demands at Westminster – the list goes on. With Republican and Unionist voting now just about 50/50 and, given the DUP’s shady history and dubious connections, it wouldn’t take much to change the political balance in Ulster, which in turn would have repercussions at Westminster. The Tories have a long history of promising one thing and then reneging, so what if they
fail to pay the promised cash or alter the terms etc? Any second thoughts by the DUP could bring down the UK government.
The Constitution: The Tories have used every trick in the book to dodge the issue of amendments to the Repeal Bill in the Commons and now it passes to the unelected Lords to protect the devolved nations from the Government’s attempts to take back powers already devolved to Scotland, Wales and N Ireland. Whether the Lords insist on amending the Bill or not, the outcome is likely to be Constitutional crisis. If they force the amendments we have Constitutional crisis and if they pass it without amendment, the devolved governments will refuse to give their assent and force Constitutional crisis.
Do we have a bookie in this forum who could offer odds?
I would add education – there is a report out tomorrow on this
And a simple break down in law and order if it is a hot summer
Agree, the foreseeable difficulties seem impossible to deal with – then factor in the equivalent unforeseen catastrophes which are bound to happen over the next few months (think Grenfell, the conference speech, sexual harassment-gate, Carillion etc etc) it is difficult to see how a leadership election or a general election doesn’t end up coming about. May’s only hope is her dogged stubbornness to hang on, which is really quite remarkable!
It is difficult to understand May’s “dogged stubbornness”. Why go down for something you don’t believe in and end up vilified for it. The only explanation is that she must believe it is the only way to save the future of the Tory party. By offering herself up to be the sacrificial lamb and taking responsibility for the most incompetent government in history and being the most incompetent leader she is giving future Tory leaders the chance to lay the blame squarely at her door. I would rather Mogg, Johnson, Gove and their apparatchiks take the responsibility for their actions and not be let off the hook by May’s misguided loyalties. Cameron refused to carry the can despite being the architect.
The continuation of this government depends on May’s continuing good health. What if the pressures eventually crush her? What if ill health suddenly forces her retirement from the world of politics? Then what? Rees Mogg for PM? Gove? Johnson? Unimaginable.
But Corbyn????????
The House of Lords is going to take the knitted together hi-jack apart stitch by stitch. That will possibly border on a constitutional crisis, if they hold their nerve and push beyond what our peculiar non encoded constitution allows.
Meanwhile. There seems to be a multi prong attack from the extremist swivel heads of the ERG, who seem to believe it’s now or never. Timing is everything in a coup..and comedy.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/tory-ministers-taxpayer-cash-hard-Brexit-erg
If this had been a Labour Government it would have been hounded out of office by now I’m sure of it.
I’m not sure the state of the Government changes anything because this is the Establishment’s world where public service is just a place where the Haves’ can prance around arguing amongst themselves as if they were in a public school debating class whilst the country goes to the dogs.
Like playing a lyre whilst Rome burnt.
It’s disgusting and a sure sign of our real decline as a nation.
‘Events dear boy, events’…………such as this morning’s news that the accurately named Crapita is now also in trouble following Carillion’s overdue collapse?
Or Gena Miller (showing 100 times more guts and intelligence than most politicians) taking the government to court over the lack of proper Parliamentary oversight of 2 initial payments to the DUP? And the DUP then rounding on the Tories?
Or the Brexit fanatics forcing a no confidence vote in May over her so-called ‘kowtowing to the EUSSR’? (known to the rest of us as being forced to face reality)