It’s always ‘events’ that change things

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As Harold Macmillan was supposed to have said, it's always 'Events, dear boy, events' that change things.

Well, Fallon has gone and today's reshuffle will be very modest as more wait to fall on their swords. A government without power is now to be consumed by sleaze. We have been here before.

But more important today is MAID: mutually assured interest destruction. If the BoE does increase rates - purely to bolster Carney's ego after he's promised to do so for so long - then we hit a potential tipping point. Of itself a small rise might be insignificant. But as growth begins to tumble it may in retrospect be the moment when people say 'that's when the mistakes really began to hit home'.

Macmillan was right on this one. What he failed to add was that it's always 'Egos, dear boy, egos'.