Events, dear boy, events

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It is commonplace to think that there is nothing that will prevent a Conservative election win in 202o now. I disagree. There are, as Macmillan may have said, 'events, dear boy, events' that can blow any government off course. Here are some that might do just that.

    • The NHS failing
      • People dying waiting for treatment
    • Social care failing
      • People dying for lack of care
    • People forced onto the streets by the benefit cap
      • And children, especially
    • Councils going bankrupt
      • And basic essential services being cut as a result
    • Power cuts
      • People dying because there is insufficient capacity to meet demand
    • An increase in interest rates
      • Giving rise to mortgage defaults
    • Rapidly rising class sizes
      • Failure to meet the needs of a growing number of children
    • Rapidly rising government debt
      • Spending rising and revenue falling: the end of the Tory dream of a balanced budget
    • The next economic downturn
      • All the signs are there
    • Tax cuts for the well off or large companies
      • Defying the public mood
    • No change to migration
      • A failure to deliver what people thought was the promise of Brexit
    • Rising unemployment as companies leave the country
      • No one voted Brexit to see their job disappear
    • Failure to deliver a negotiated Brexit in two years
      • The failure that's almost inevitable
    • No sign that anyone of significance wants to do a trade deal with the U.K.
      • And most especially a protectionist USA

But of course, the availability of an alternative would help.