I have been remiss. I have written about Labour. What about another party seriously impacted by the referendum? I mean, of course, the Conservatives. It would be all too easy to think they are under control as their leadership contest is already underway, but that would be a serious mistake.
I am well aware that not long ago I suggested that the sole aim of the Conservative Party is power, and many agreed. But let's be clear, when divided they have failed in that objective.
I also know that I predicted before Brexit that whatever happened Theresa May would be leader shortly after the result. Right now it looks like I also got that right.
But I could not have anticipated the fall out would be quite so severe. The careers of Cameron and Osborne have ended in worse than typical failure. Their crime was incompetence.
Johnson's failure is worse: he's been exposed as a coward and liar who delivered Brexit for vanity and without real conviction.
As for Gove, he can't beat May, and is hated by her so resoundingly that the back benches beckon, where his own multi-faceted treachery will earn him few friends as the whiff of power fades away.
What that means is that four of the most influential politicians of their generation have wrecked each other's careers and will leave a party with divisions so fierce and a legacy so torrid that Theresa May's prospects look dire.
She cannot deliver the balanced budget her party always promised. Mark Carney has already made that clear. Osborne has already signalled that the attempt has been abandoned. So their grand project has failed, because of a policy initiative the Tories delivered.
And it is likely that Theresa May will have to deliver Brexit, which if she succeeded would add her name to the Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson hall of ignominy on this issue.
Mind you it would be quite something if she managed to do anything: she will have a majority of 12, some of whom will be very uninclined to turn up too often whilst others have developed a very strong habit of not only disagreeing with each other, but doing so, very loudly, in public.
What is more, without a manifesto the Lords can tear most things she offers to them to shreds.
Whilst that is going on migration will continue, the NHS will have no new money and not a single regulation will disappear from view.
If that is not a poisoned chalice, what is ?
What that means is that if a coalition of the sort I called for only a fortnight ago were to be created now the Conservatives might be consigned to an electoral wilderness for many years to come.
All it requires is opposition leaders who are trusted, willing to work together, with the support of their MPs and a sufficient membership and then British politics and its constitutional structures could be pulled into the twenty first century.
If.
The Conservative crisis is likely.
It's all down to the combined opposition as to what happens next.
But they have to hatch that most hated of things right now.
It's called a plan.
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With the minority parties already calling for such an alliance, it’s entirely down to Labour to crack on with it. My concern is that the old fashioned Tory “wets” on the right wing of Labour’s PLP will refuse. They seem to abhor co-operating with people of varying views, which is a huge stumbling block to actual progress. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that there’ll be a recognition of the need for a healthy, functional political system, including co-operation across party lines for positive purposes.
They will say Labour’s rules prevent it
I make no additional comment
A driver for such cooperation could be the on-going investigation into electoral expenses in Tory marginals. I’m not sure exactly how many – more than 15 less than 25. As Richard observes, May has a majority of 12. 60% of the HoC need to support an early election. I do not see this happening for a range of reasons – if May becomes PM – she will see an election in 4 years. What she may not see is that the tories could lose their HoC majority and be unable to do anything about it. Most satisfying.
The election expenses investigation just needs to trigger one by-election for others to follow (i.e. prove that Con’s Central Office funding must be counted towards consitutency budgets in one marginal and the others auto follow). If this happens – I’d suggest that the whiff of power will restore discipline amongst those Lab MPs that find it hard to work with Corbyn. If Corbyn weathers the current storm I am sure there will be a plan.
“All it requires is opposition leaders who are trusted, willing to work together, with the support of their MPs and a sufficient membership and then British politics and its constitutional structures could be pulled into the twenty first century.”
Was that Superman I just saw on the Walford Road skyline….or perchance a flying pig.?
LoL,
you made me think of Boris Johnsons epitaph,
“the man who tried to put lipstick on a flying pig”
I couldn’t agree with you more, Richard. These political opportunities don’t happen very often. If a coalition of progressive parties could simply agree a basic manifesto with realistic proposals dealing with the key issues confronting the country (housing, jobs, wages, infrastructure, health, immigration, environment, education, agriculture, SMS business etc.) they would surely start to build a majority concensus among the electorate. For once, they really do need to put country before party. If that necessitates uncomfortable compromise so be it. It is time to hang up their personal and tribal egos.
For the reasons you have stated, the Tories are in a more vulnerable position than they have been for a long time. Such opportunities don’t present themselves frequently enough to let pass. Without wanting to sound too dramatic it could be said that if they don’t attack now on a united front then it could similarly consign Labour to the wilderness for an eternity.
With all the non-partisan seasoned, professional advice available to them it surely can’t be beyond their capability to show real leadership and do the country a massive service by consigning Neo-liberal ideology to the dustbin of history, at least in the UK. No time for Brexit recriminations. Such a manifesto would go far beyond the narrow agenda of IN or OUT of the EU and refocus the country on the real policies for a shared prosperity over the next generation. No time to waste.
As an addendum to my previous post, in case anyone missed the link given yesterday by Keith Fletcher I would recommend watching Prof. Richard Wolff’s June talk – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5458AROrLs. While he’s not always 100% correct on lesser details (e.g. with regard to Cameron & Brexit), he offers an insightful analysis of what’s happening in the West which cannot be ignored. If only all economists were as entertaining to listen to!
An hour and 22 minutes though?
Even I will be challenged by that
Always well worth the time in my view, but in summary Wolff’s position is that Brexit will make little or no difference to the big picture. Yet another smokescreen that will not materially alter the underlying systemic issues.
The rich will still be rich, the poor will still be poor, the vast majority will still struggle every day to avoid personal disaster and destitution. It is just the deckchairs on the command ship that are being moved around as part of the ongoing conflict within a capitalist system for the competition over power, wealth and ownership of the means of production.
I like his thinking and sometimes his style, not because it helps with any day to day matters specifically, but it does set things within a much broader context that suits a particular audience try to understand what is really going on in their lives.
And if you want to understand the real mess that the US has created for itself, not a bad place to start in my view!
He’s wrong from the UK perspective
We will be much worse off
From a US perspective he may be right
You can probably do a bit of skip stopping tho’. He makes allowances for an inexpert (and, I regret to say it, American audience. I’ve lost count of the number of times he feels compelled to say – “that was a joke by the way”!)
It’s long but the time passes quite quickly because he’s a good speaker with a sense of humour – rare among such qualified academics. You can skip the local stuff to around 49 mins. Another caveat is that he’s addressing a New York audience so it’s naturally slanted to them. OK. I know. I know. I should get a life!!
Wolff is an example of a real educator, very much like Richard in that he can communicate directly without waffle and being over-technical. He’s more radical than Richard and has had to wait until his 70’s for his ideas to be taken seriously. He is in constant demand as a speaker all across the States.
His lecture, Capitalism Hits the fan was an astute analysis of the roots o the GFC.
He’s also got a good line in new York Jewish humour and ironic understatement-I’d say Richard is very funny at times so, as the saying goes ‘you don’t have to be Jewish’ but the Brooklyn burr helps!
my recollection of Major as PM, from the point of view of a mere peasant, was that it was a relatively tranquil period compared to the Thatcher era,
May as a post Cameron PM could well lead to a period of relative tranquillity,
Major didn’t try to do anything dramatic, I doubt May will have the time or focus to try much either,
she will be pre-occupied with trying to keep the wheels from falling off on a day to day basis and Brexit planning will cause a daily throbbing migraine,
Major had his ‘bastards’, as will May!
Aron Banks is already talking of starting a new party, as if it was a business proposition, Farage is now toxic waste, Aron also has questions to answer about the level of his funding of ‘Leave’ all this will add to May’s headache,
Brexit will fester away, the more they plan the more complex they will find the problems are, article 50 will gather dust, a polonium dusted document nobody wants to touch for fear of a slow political death,
possibly the EU will change itself in the light of current events and now being unshackled from having to pay heed to the UK’s meddling in it’s affairs,
maybe the EU will change enough that in a year or two abandoning Brexit might seem favourable to sufficient people that it can be forgotten,
I’m confused as to why the Lib Dems want to fight to rejoin the EU when as yet we haven’t left it,
Labour is in catharsis, it is rediscovering itself, let’s not rush the process, we wouldn’t want the butterfly to emerge from the chrysalis early in a deformed state, let the pupae digest itself and reform,
a coalition makes great sense, but think of it like making a salad dressing, you can put all the ingredients together but it requires vigorous shaking to blend them together, if not shaken enough the constituents can separate easily, let’s keep shaking and take the lid off now and then and see if anything palatable has formed?
keep chipping away Richard, you keep your goals firmly centred in your vision,
remember the tortoise and the hare,
if we keep tunnelling we must eventually break through into the light!
If you think that there are potential Labour candidates who could work with other political groups (and you’d be better placed than me to know this) to form a progressive coalition whether it is still Corbyn or a new leader they’d better get on with it fast (quite how Corbyn could do anything at the moment is debateable).
I’d admit to be being very disappointed if a coalition of sorts did not emerge from this upheaval – who is to say if the new Leader is just as tribalist as before? This is where the narrow minded Westministerian view of the UK political landscape of the PLP really worries me. It could snuff out any ‘reaching out’ to the those parties with whom Labour has empathy.
If a Leader emerges who just wants to go after Tory swing voters again I will despair.
PLP = Power Loving Politicians. This lot don’t care how they get in – just as long as they do.
You will have a different view Richard and if you have said that some of the members of the PLP ARE more broad minded and still Left-leaning (in the sense that we could see a return to a true centre politics in this country) and I do trust your judgement on who those potential Leaders are.
Let’s be clear: I do talk
I also live in hope
Personally I’ve never been impressed with Theresa May, but she certainly seems to be a smart political operator – if a bad operator for the country. Quite why she’s never been properly criticised by anyone much is touched on here:
http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-article-pulled-telegraph-pressure-may-campaign/
If, as Matt suggests “she will be pre-occupied with trying to keep the wheels from falling off on a day to day basis and Brexit planning will cause a daily throbbing migraine”, I fear that, combined with her diabetes, she won’t last long.
She had a moment of self-awareness
She did describe the Tories as the Masty Party more than a decade ago
A Guardian article by Andy Beckett suggests that the Tory Brexiteers had – and still have – a very clear plan or at least an objective: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/01/margaret-thatcher-brexit-thatcherism-leave-1980s
This extract is particularly chilling:
“At 4.59am last Friday, within minutes of the BBC declaring victory for Brexit, a gleeful email from the CPS appeared in my inbox. “The weakness of the Labour party and the resolution of the EU question have created a unique political opportunity to drive through a wide-ranging … revolution on a scale similar to that of the 1980s,” it began. “This must include removing unnecessary regulatory burdens on businesses, such as those related to climate directives and investment fund[s].” ”
The article concludes:
“Three years ago Michael Gove, MP for the comfortable Home Counties seat of Surrey Heath, and soon possibly our first Brexiteer prime minister, was invited by the CPS to give a lecture. The occasion, Gove began, “gives me a chance to affirm my admiration for the principles of the CPS … I look forward to the CPS playing an even bigger role in the nation’s political life in the decades to come.”
Far from giving two fingers to Thatcher’s vision of Britain, the vote for Brexit may finish her work.”
Is anyone surprised?
The progressive opposition really needs to wake up and get its act together.
Which is why I took the risk of saying so
There are only about 40 M.P’s at the most who represent a ‘progressive opposition’ and it is that we will have to build on as the Tories privatise everything down to evey jot and tittle of this country to siphon its wealth.
The article is correct to point out that neo-liberalism was well on its rise by 1975 with the Left in the Labour Party already embattled.
What you are saying is that if you did not vote for Corbyn you are not progressive
That is simplistic and not true
It also ignores progressives in other parties
There is also the issue of electoral fraud which may have the potential for election results being null and void.