This post was written last Thursday. As a mark of respect to the late Jo Cox MP publication was delayed.
I have already explained that I will be voting Remain next week.
I have discussed why I think people might vote Brexit.
And I have discussed what I think will happen to UK politics if Remain win by a small margin, which may be their best hope.
Now I address what might happen to UK politics if Brexit wins, as now seems possible.
First of all, let's start by stating the obvious. I have already said that Cameron and Osborne will have to go if Remain win. That will, of course, be even more the case if there is a vote for Brexit. I cannot see them making the weekend if that were to happen. We already know 65 Conservative MPs are willing to challenge George Osborne on the issue of the post Brexit budget that he proposes: as I have suggested, he will never get the chance to do so in that case.
Who though will be the next leader? I have suggested it will be Theresa May in the event of a small Remain vote. Does Brexit change that? In my opinion it does not. There are good reasons for saying so. As I have argued, the Conservative Party's goal is always power. It is deeply divided. The fighting machine that it is will seek to heal wounds. That is not Gove's instinct and Johnson has no part of him that readily embraces compromise. Neither could deliver what the Conservatives need and it's my belief that they will compromise on May, even after a Brexit campaign in which she has played almost no part (almost certainly deliberately).
Assume I am right. Will she win the support she needs to create government and will she survive any attempts by the combined opposition forces in the Commons to bring her government down? It's my belief that she would get enough support to keep a lame duck Tory administration in power. What is more, I cannot see anyone willing to put her or her government out of their misery.
There are good reasons for thinking this. First, as I have explained, Labour does not seem to have a coherent plan available for an alternative post Brexit vote negotiation and the SNP will want a weak Tory administration in office if they are to consider another referendum. The Conservatives might just see an advantage to conceding this but Labour never will.
Second, life for a post Brexit government is likely to be torrid. I am aware that there are many who are considering voting leave who suggest tht all the suggestions of economic problems arising as a result are just scare-mongering. I am quite well placed to discuss this with some pretty serious economists and none of us think that is the case. I am shocked that so much of the debate on Brexit is taking place based on what an economist might suggest is the assumption that ceteris paribus holds true - that all other things will be equal.
All other things will not be equal if we vote Brexit. First, the EU will be utterly unreasonable with the UK. Second, whether that is reasonable or not is irrelevant; that will be because ofthe impact Brexit will have on eurosceptic movements across Europe, whose cause will have been promoted to the chagrin of most EU ruling parties and that of Brussels itself. The risk of a domino effect is very real indeed, and tthat will motivate very harsh negotiations to make clear just how unattractive this option really is. Third, the risk to hegemony is so high that I do think market reaction will be very adverse.
Now none of these things have to trigger a UK recession or a worlwide financial crisis, but the first is, in my opinion, very likely and the second is at least plausible.
In fact I would argue recession is unavoidable. Investment in the UK will go on hold during renegotiation. No big business is going to sink millions or even billions into our economy without knowing what the future terms of UK trade might be. In itself this will be enough to trigger recession. Couple that with a planned withdrawal of certain parts of banking (those that need an EU regulatory base) from London and a downturn has to happen. Try as I might I cannot see where the stimulus happens. A sterling fall of 30% in recent years has not boosted UK growth so no one should respond by saying a fall in sterling us the counter-balance to all this. That will only create import induced cost push inflation, which is just about the last sort we want as it serves no domestic purpose at all.
Then, leaving aside the real risk of EU instability as a result of our vote, there is the risk of worldwide recession as global markets suffer the knock on effects of a fall in confidence in a global trading hub. This could be bad enough to make 2008 look like a picnic: that was about finance and this time the threat is to the real terms of trade, and that is much more serious.
I am not doing project fear here: I am simply offering my best assessment of risk.
What this means for any prime minister over the next three years is that they face renegotiation of EU membership in the most torrid of environments, like it or not. I suspect all in the Remain camp (and that is the large majority of serious politicians) will have a view broadly similar to this. What is on offer to whoever takes the premiership after Brexit is a chalice much more poisoned than that Mervyn King thought was on offer to anyone in the UK in 2010.
In that case do not expect Labour to want to take office, I believe they will be happy for blue-on-blue action to continue and for the mess to arises on someone else's watch. The chance to say after 2020 that what they will have to do is clear up the mess they inherited, with a real justification for attributing blame in this case, will be much too big to resist, in my opinion.
I stress that in that case it falls to all opposition parties to deliver an agenda for reform of the type I outlined in my blog on a narrow Remain win. I think the agenda is broadly similar, but with a twist. That twist has three elements. First they have to agree that we face an economic crisis caused by the rejection of neoliberalism, whichnis what a Leave vote would represent.
Second, they would have to agree a national infrastructure plan to tackle this. Because investment, money creation and tax are so intimately related (see The Joy of Tax) this s vital, in my opinion. Without an agreement to co-ordinate macro policy whilst devolving desired planning locally there will be n coherent economy alternative.
And third, the narrative of failure of neoliberalism has to be broadly agreed to challenge the backlash based in ingrained thinking that is still possible.
So what of the Conservatives who will have been left with the supposed task of governing in this thankless position of their own creation?
First, a new Chancellor will have to rip up the balanced budget hymn sheet. Unless she or he does then any recession will be much worse. But with that will go the whole Tory identity. So the option is bigger recession or in-fighting. They may go for the former, but in that case the need for an alternative plan from opposition parties is even more compelling.
Second, they will have to deal with belligerent parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. These each reflect different political traditions at present. If they combine their voices they will gave real power.
Third, without opposition consent the government will be able to do very little. The 2015 manifesto will be history meaning the Lords will be free to challenge a great deal of legislation, and I think they will. In the Commons the government may well only be able to survive with opposition support on key economic issues because of fractures within its own ranks. To describe the likely outcome as lame duck is to be kind to it.
Despite that I expect such an administration, whose sole focus will be EU renegotiation as there will be little or no time for anything else, to survive a full term. That is because I suspect the Article 50 exit negotiations will be incomplete in 2020. The EU will wish for that. Being able to demonstrate the crippling impact of attempting to leave on the UK will be vital to other member states wishing to crush their own exit movements.
So what of 2020 in this case? I would live to think that a coalition dedicated to these things might be elected:
- Electoral reform
- House of Lords reform
- EU readmission on revised terms
- A national economic plan.
This government should, I suggest, seek a mandate for no more than two years. Then there would be new elections and a referndum on the terms for re-admission to the EU.
It is my hope that by then the EU may also have realised reform is essential and that changes in the free movement of people and capital and the use of People!s QE to fund infrastructure would have all been possible. I have to live in hope, but the circumstances for change could have been created by Brexit.
And only after that election would three things happen.
First, the return of more normal politics.
Second, economic recovery.
And third the resolution of issues like Scotland's membership of the U.K., or not.
Of course none of this may happen. Most particularly the opposition parties may not cooperate with each other. But shame on them if they don't. We face a crisis that need not have happened now but which has been waiting in the wings for the opportunity to arise for some time. Unless opportunity is taken from that crisis our prospects are very grim indeed. As I say, I live in hope.
Apologies: the first version published was a draft including even more typos than usual.
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Let’s try a slightly different scenario: the referendum goes Brexit’s way.
But parliament is not compelled to enact legislation in line with the will of the people: the obvious case in point being capital punishment (a lot of people still want it, it would probably get a majority in a referendum, but due to international commitments it would simply be impossible to enact law to bring it back).
Secondly: whatever way the English vote, the support for Remain over the border in Scotland is overwhelming (polls up there were running something like 70/30 last I saw), and precisely one Scots MP backs Leave. Sturgeon made clear late last year that she required a “lock” on the referendum that meant that all four of the UK’s constituent countries would have to be seen to favour leaving. All Cameron has to do is slam on the lock and ride out the storm of protest that will inevitably come from the far right – but recent events will make them look like extremists.
The civil unrest would be considerable
English nationalist violence would become a reality
That may be considered an option that is acceptable, but I think it has to be considered likely
We do not do civil unrest
Agreed
I think that the aftermath of a Brexit vote could be very nasty. There are the obvious political repercussions, but i think that a lot of influential people are keeping very quiet for fear of inflaming things and are quietly hoping for a Remain vote. If we get a Leave vote, the gloves may come off and people might start thinking ‘Oh shit, what have we done?’. Furthermore, on a family level, this could turn generations against each other. If the younger generation start to feel that their future has been undermined by their parents or grandparents, this could stoke up a lot of resentment.
Richard – when you say ‘First they have to agree that we face an economic crisis caused by the rejection of neoliberalism, whichnis what a Leave vote would represent’, I’m not sure that I follow your logic?
If we have an economic crisis, is it not at least partially due to the insistence on continuing to pursue neoliberal policies? Under the leadership of the current ‘Leavers’ the preference is for an even greater emphasis on neoliberal policies.
Otherwise your logic feels right. There are already rumblings from Merkel that the UK will be dealing with a very angry and determined Europe, and should expect extremely tough negotiations, whilst holding a fairly weak hand. The European countries have had to listen to a barrage of derogatory comments from the UK. Business relationships are not merely transactional but are personal relationships too. British suppliers can expect a negative personal reaction to go along with the other trade challenges.
People have rejected neoliberalism
The leavers have said they reject the elite
People believe them and will vote Brexit as a result
They are being conned
This is one of the many aspects of this that could turn very ugly
Gotcha – I was being slow…
I completely reject the right’s arguments for leaving. I am a socialist and democrat, and was always interested in the Benn arguments regarding the EU. IE The democratic deficit.
This is why I feel principled people like Kelvin Hopkins have taken part in the Lexit.
What is your take on this film?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq72f81kkM4
I only ask, because like minded people who campaign against neoliberalism and poverty seem to have such different takes on the EU.
I argue for reform
I cannot accept that there is any political case for voting for the ghastly leave campaign and all that goes with it
If we are to leave the wrong people will be negotiating the exit
For one Kelvin and I will have to disagree
A couple of economic points that jumped out at me Richard.
1. “A sterling fall of 30% in recent years has not boosted UK growth so no one should respond by saying a fall in sterling us the counter-balance to all this.”
That statement cannot be proven or disproven as you have no way of knowing what would have happened if sterling had not fallen (it is a bit like your profit maximisation theory) and so it is just your opinion.
Sterling was at approx 2 USD pre 2008 after which it fell sharply to 1.4 and has hovered between 1.5 to 1.6 since then. Are you saying that the fall in Sterling post the GFC has had no effect on UK trade? What do you think would have been the effect if the rate had been forced to stay at 2 USD and the equivalent high level against all other currencies?
2. “This could be bad enough to make 2008 look like a picnic: that was about finance and this time the threat is to the real terms of trade, and that is much more serious.”
The private financial markets stopped functioning in 2008 and only survived because of massive public/central bank intervention worldwide. The knock on effect to the real world was immense. Businesses and individuals were bankrupted in unprecedented numbers, people lost their livelihoods and homes. Austerity was forced upon much of the developed world. Most of those populations have seen no improvement since then.
That was no picnic for any of us running businesses or trying to make ends meet personally during this period. Are you really suggesting we are heading for a greater global Armageddon over a Brexit decision? If so, I think that needs a bit more justification to avoid looking like Project Fear.
a) Sorry Keith, but the is just silly. Of course we do not have parallel universes to test. So we take what we have. And the evidence we have is that at best a fall in the rate gave no trading gain and left record balance of payment issues. I think that in economics that’s as good as it gets.
b) Yes, this could be much worse. 2008 did not bring down the political architecture or give rise to extremism. In other words the means to tackle a crisis survived. This time they may not. That is potentially much worse unless chaos is your goal.
I have no love of austerity or neoliberalism. But nor do I have any love of right wing nationalsim intended to break down the role of the state either and that’s the Leave option that you are supporting
a) It is not silly at all. You made an economic statement that you now say you cannot prove. I have no idea what evidence you are claiming supports your opinion, but opinion seems to be what it is.
b)This is now just fear mongering in my opinion. The EU referendum has been a known entity for over a year and a speculated event for several years. Are you suggesting the all those clever people in the central banks and financial markets have not factored in any of these armageddon like political events that you are suggesting could happen into their forecasts?
In which so why not? Is it because they are highly unlikely or is it that every central bank stress test has been fundamentally flawed and therefore every central bank governor should be sacked immediately starting with Carney?
As for right wing nationalism, this is something I abhor and will never support. The reality is it has never gone away since the end of WW2 and instead has grown under 40+ years of post war economic and political mismanagement (in my view).
The fact that you now equate that foul ideology directly with my (and millions of other left or centre or moderate right wingers) democratic right to vote leave for entirely different reasons, is quite disgusting in my opinion and you need to think very carefully what you are implying with your words.
I do think a sense of reality and “moderation” is required, as you have previously suggested yourself.
Keith
If you have not realised all economic statements about the future and quite a lot about the past are just opinion then you really have been wasting your time here
You confirm that by thinking markets can rationally price risk – which if we know anything post 2008 we know not to be true
These two failures of understanding are seismic and yes, they do make me doubt your other claims. I have said before, and I will say again, you can vote Leave without being a racist, but as Marina Hyde sad yesterday in the Guardian, like it or not those leading the leave campaign have been – which is now widely acknowledged – and whether you like it or not voting leave will be taken by them as support for their cause
That, I suggest, is moderate comment in the face of the considerable difficulties your comments pose
Richard
All social constructs are a matter of opinion Richard, with that I totally agree with you and always have.
And therefore, each of our opinions may be equally right or wrong, neither of us have any way of know.
But I object to the deliberate conflation of racism or far right politics with anyone’s decision to vote leave in this referendum. That suggestion tries to make this decision a single issue one, which it most certainly is not.
I support controlled migration, I support nation state sovereignty over its laws, I support democratic influence and control over its lawmakers. I do not support racism or far right politics in any way, shape or form. Let me make that very clear.
I will leave end any further comments on this particular issue for now, as my intention as always has only been to ensure some balance in this debate for those who have not yet made up their minds (or already have).
You are drawing all the wrong conclusions from what I said, from the economics onwards
Is that deliberate Keith?
It’s now looking very odd that you arrived on this blog late last year, without an obvious history that you have ever given a hint of (and none on the internet at all as I am sure you are not the cricketer) because you only seem to comment here and have created a situation where it appeared safe for you to comment in support of ‘vote leave’ from a background of a lot of prior apparently ‘friendly’ comment that now appears utterly inconsistent with your latest claims on ‘those clever people in the City’
I smell a rat Keith
I might owe an apology to PSR, who I think did so sooner
Finger/brain co-ordination issue. My last sentence should have started:
“I will VOTE leave AND end any further comments on this particular issue for now”
Richard may i suggest you are becoming a little paranoid, there is no conspiracy theory in my existence or presence on your blog. If I ever have the pleasure of meeting you in person I can reassure you of that.
There are many Keith Fletcher’s in this country and not all of us seek a public presence on the internet I am sure of that. I am not a famous cricketer, although I nearly played for my county in my youth!
The fact I have disagreed with you over the EU referendum (I think this is our only major disagreement?) is neither a crime nor a surprise, as the polls still indicate it may well be a very close vote.
I may well have drawn some wrong conclusions from your comments, as may you of mine!
As for my lack of understanding of key issues, well that is always better for others to judge.
And the markets are only ever good as an indicator of herd behaviour – I learned that well and often the hard way as an independent trader for several years. I know for certain that lemmings are not always right!
There is no need to fall out over this, it is just democracy after all.
I may need convincing
Your latest postings make no sense in the context of what you had said and written before
You are at liberty to mail me
Keith – I’d be a little more engaged if you would perhaps come clean both on the desirable or likely end-point which you see, and the route by which we might get there. You avoided my previous enquiry on this front. It has been an attribute of the Brexit campaign that they have been distinctly unwilling to offer anything other than generalities on both topics
The Brexit campaign has overwhelmingly based its campaign on the argument that the UK’s problems are all the fault of others, be they migrants or the EU. Multiple reports and analyses from major institutions and academics are airily dismissed as biased products of the elite. Few if any counter analyses are provided, with exception from the likes of known extremists such as Patrick Minford, and his contributions hardly count as rigorous analyses. If you are genuinely as hostile to the neo-liberal world as you say, then you ought by now to have read the analyses from the many critics of neoliberal policies that indicate that the bulk of the UKs problems are internally generated and result from those policies. Migration is not a major cause and arguably has many benefits. That is not to deny that social impacts could be better managed. Or more honestly reported on by the media
Given the appalling posters being used by the LEave/Brexit campaign and the dishonest claims that accompany them, accusing others of running a Project Fear has now become deeply hypocritical and inappropriate.
I agree with just about all of that
My reply was quite clear to your previous question Robin, I’m surprised if neither you or Richard saw it as it was published below.
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/06/13/why-i-will-vote-remain/
Keith Fletcher says:
June 16 2016 at 9:13 am
“Keith — and also to fellow bloggers minded for Brexit. I guess I’m wondering both about the ‘ends’ and the ‘means’ that you have in mind?”
Robin — first of all let me answer that by saying all my life I have only ever wanted to understand things as they are and seek the truth, which is so often shrouded in mystery and dogma. So my “ends” and “means” on this blog are of an entirely intellectual/questioning nature. I am neither overtly political nor active in any sense of the word as my physical health prevents me from doing much more than reading, watching and thinking these days.
I enjoy alternative thinking, and critical thinking, because it allows me and hopefully others to explore the options that are always available to us in our everyday choices and in society as a whole.
And so the paper you refer to I found interesting for a number of reasons, note the date it was written for starters, well before the financial crisis and the vast majority of commentators questioning the lemming like behaviour of politicians and economists. As for the authors credentials, he is a European Phd level academic teaching in a US university, and I will give him as much time of day as any other academic to see what they have to say.
The “means” you describe of a far right, neo-liberal post Brexit government are nothing to do with me, they seem to be being presented by the Project Fear team of what will happen if we dare to vote Leave.
I still believe that there are sufficient numbers of people in this country looking for a new direction in politics and economics, who may well choose to use this EU referendum to the political class that the current direction is not the one they want. Which for me is a good thing as my own personal belief is that the first thing we need to do in this country is to establish a real economic and political democracy so that our society is allowed to follow its natural course of development based on its collective needs, instead of this state sponsored private financial capitalist dominated world that is driving the vast majority of people in a direction of travel that is not meeting their needs but suits the wants of the owners of capital.
Make of that what you will, but real democracy is what I stand for — it is up to you to decide what I mean by real democracy.
I remain baffled how anyone who wants left wing reform thinks voting for what is almost exclusively politically a hard right proposition thinks they are advancing their cause
I am so baffled I find it hard to believe it is true
To Keith.
I can appreciate that you consider that the EU represents some unsavoury things and accept that you personally may not be a racist. However, if you believe the statements of the Leave campaign leaders then you must be mad. For example, the suggestion that money “saved” by not contributing to the EU budget COULD go to the NHS. True, some / all of it COULD go, but given that Gove, Farage etc have previously clearly stated that they do not like the current form of the NHS and think there should be an insurance based system, the only reason they would increase the NHS budget would be to continue and increase the transfer of services to for profit corporations that is already proceeding apace.
There already seems to be a conflict of views about whether the Leave want us to continue to trade with the EU- in which case with a Norway type scenario we would still have to contribute to the EU budget, have free movement of people and to comply with the various trade legislation without any say in what this is- how exactly does that achieve any of your goals? and if we are not to have a trade agreement with the EU then surely you would have to accept that this would impact on our economy.
I could go on- but really, to suggest that leave is going to do anything other than cause chaos and a rise in racism is naive to say the least.
Then clearly gentlemen, I will be the only left wing libertarian reform minded voter who will be voting for Brexit on Thursday and the Remain campaign have nothing to fear because I will be in such a minority!
Or do you believe that more than 50% of this country’s voting population are now right wing fascists, or inclined to follow such an agenda. In which case, my argument of a failed economic and political system over the last 40+ years is still correct and nothing will change because we are just going to have another 40+ years of the same policies.
I really don’t think you can comprehend where I am coming from, which is perhaps my own lack of ability to explain it but i think I have been fairly clear for anyone willing to listen and think about it.
This is not a general election, we are not voting along party political lines, I am not voting for Tory, Labour, UKIP, Green or whatever policies. I am being asked to vote whether I believe this country is better in or out of the EU.
I have therefore removed all the party political rhetoric from my brain and thought about this decision as best as I can from a logical and rational perspective and concluded that I will vote Leave as i believe that the voting public of this country can decide on the future of this country better within its own nation state which controls its own laws, its own currency and its own borders.
Beyond that decision, the party politics of this country can and will continue in the same way that it has for last several hundred years that we managed our own affairs. We may swing right, we may swing left, we may swing in a new direction entirely. That will be for the people of this nation to decide, because the one thing I will vote to defend is our democracy.
I’m not sure I can be any more explicit on my view, and I entirely understand that it is different from your views. I am not trying to change any of your minds, nor will you change mine – unless I see some new information over the next few days which alters the balance entirely for me.
Keith
You are now trolling
I will be deleting your comments for the time being, without reading them because I am bored by your time wasting and repetive comments
I have a life, and am not wasting it on your comments any longer
I think I am right to smell the rat
Richard
I entirely accept your prerogative if I have overstepped the mark Richard. But let me assure you I am no rat in wanting to participate in a logical and rational debate.
As a sportsman, I will gracefully take my seat on the bench!
Richard, I get no sense that Keith is ‘trolling’-I may be wrong. I know of those who are going to vote Leave from a Left perspective and there is some logic to their appraoch. There was (in ’75) strong argument son the Left for a leave and I still feel their are now but because these have had so little exposure and the leave arguments so dominated by vile, corporatist rentier shysters and the ghastly Farage (who has recently shamed himself beyond any form of survival) I decided to abstain and will go the the voting booth armed with a pritt-stick and a message explaining why I am abstaining.
I have NO sense that Keith is some closet-racist/libertarian ( I may be wrong) purporting to be highly critical of finance capitalism thus making his previous posts a charade and mockery. Some posters have done this but usually only once -the sense of there being a piss-take is usually palpable. I don’t get a sense of this with Keith unless he is using complex reverse psychology and I’m not sure why he would waste so much of his time doing that.
Simon
That may be true
But I have still got very bored of his his posts and as editor I am taking a break
The moderation policy makes it clear repetitiveness is a reason for doing so
Richard
Clearly, any vote for Brexit will have to deal with the economic fall out. So perhaps Cameron will remain Prime Minister, to steady the ship as much as possible.
He should also say that Brexit will not come, if at all, until after the 2020 election. After we have a detailed and agreed plan on how to proceed.
All of this is of course speculation, but I think that the best way to deflate the Brexit mania is to ask Gove and Johnson to come up with this detailed Brexit plan. By 2019 or so.
Once hard facts have to replace the empty rhetoric and propaganda of “taking back control” it will become clear that there is precious little to recommend to actually go through with a Brexit.
Further thinking, if anyone is interested.
https://radicaleconomicthought.wordpress.com/2016/06/19/a-brexit-vote-will-not-mean-brexit/
Interesting.
Of course, the “brexit” vote, either way, is not legally binding.
It may be a “morally” binding result, but not legally binding.
I do not think that any government, however, could ignore the result and survive long. No credibility would remain.
And once the UK government informs the EU that it wishes to invoke article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union, its route is chosen. ONLY negotiations concerning the terms and conditions of future relations with the EU are allowed. I noted Richard listed a future government may wish to apply for readmission to the EU. That won’t happen. It would need a unanimous vote. There are a LOT of seriously p##### off people over there..
Pissed off the may be
I happen to think readmission might happen
But only because like it or not the EU is going to change significNtly
If return meant accepting the Euro I would not do so
That of course assumes that the rest of the European countries also pretend that nothing has happened. After the threats and abuse they have received from British politicians and the public, they may be quite keen to make it quite clear just what Brexit means for the UK and any other countries considering it.
English politicians and public.
And maybe a scattering of outers from Wales.
It may well be that Britain out is mirrored by Scotland IN.
Northern Ireland is going to acutely feel any exit.
Several years down the road, we may be left with an England consisting of the crown state of London, with outlying serf counties.
A look at a map of EU funding to the UK reveals that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get the lions share of funds. Oh, and Cornwall (but they’ve always regarded themselves as a separate country anyway!)
John M -out of interest, what was the source of your data on EU funding
Ive always been struck by how in Scotland, roads whose improvement has been funded by the EU are clearly signposted as such. I suspect many in England are just not aware of when and where they have benefited
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/erdf-programmes-progress-and-achievements
Thanks JohnM
It’s tempting and intellectually challenging to project future outcomes. And from a planning perspective it’s necessary. But any such forecasts must intelligently allow for wide variances and ‘left-field’ considerations. In a sense it’s a mug’s game but a necessary one in order to ‘be prepared’ for whatever actually transpires.
Theresa May is an obvious candidate for PM. As you say, she has been noticeable by her absence during the current hiatus. The Tory grandees will have their Plans A & B well in place by now and she will certainly have received her instructions. Any of the other front-runners would be too divisive both for the Tories and the general public. If I was a Tory I’d want her as leader to heal the internal wounds and restore some sort of ‘normality’ to the government (haha). Whether she would accept the poisoned chalice is another matter. If she’s smarter than I think she is she won’t!
A unique opportunity is indeed presenting itself for the opposition parties to co-operate for a change. They should relentlessly keep up the pressure on the government for the next couple of years while constructing a cohesive and credible plan for publication around 2018, incorporating all the reforms you have identified. They should not be rushed by externalities and offer knee-jerk reactions to whatever will transpire over the short-term. It could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to demolish the neo-liberal myth, at least here in whatever is lef of the UK.
One thing is certain and that is uncertainty itself (how pathetically trite is that!).
I fully accept that what happens may be very different from what I expect here
I am more convinced than ever that we will vote ‘Remain’.
Carol – anything in particular that makes you feel that? I’d like to be able to say the same…
The ‘Poll of Polls’ is currently predicting 50- 50. Any result with a very slim difference either way won’t resolve anything will it? The level of turn-out may prove the be the deciding factor on the day, with even the weather influencing the vote. This does not strike me as being the best way to decide the country’s future socio-economic strategy. As usual we’ll probably just muddle through, reacting to the results of our systemically unprofessional political management. It’s the English way. Sometimes it works – so let’s hope it does on this occasion. My fear is, though, that we’re heading for some pretty stormy weather which always impacts most negatively on those who are least well equipped to cope. Plus ça change.
Keith – I understand where you’re coming from. At one stage I considered voting OUT. But, after weeks of soul-searching and analysis, have concluded that REMAIN is the only ‘sensible’ option, not least because it buys us more time. Trust me, I’m no fan of the worst excesses of the EU especially it’s monetary policy. It’s in urgent need of reform. I don’t know if that’s possible at this late stage but it won’t be for the lack of effort by all the progressive groups in the member states. The real enemy is Washington. Giving your support, albeit indirectly, to the English neo-liberals will weaken our independence from the global oligarchs, not strengthen it. That’s what I feel. I’ve not expressed myself with the clarity I would want as this is written on the hoof, so to speak, but I urge you to reconsider your position and where your vote will count most to achieve your preferred long-term outcome, with which I have some agreement.
I think your summary a good explanation of the reluctant yes voter
And precisely what Jeremy Corbyn meant when he said he was 75% in
I would say I was less than that
John D. You say you have not expressed yourself with the clarity you would have liked. But for me what you expressed was spot on. Frankly, these are times where there seems little clarity anywhere. What’s that saying about truth being the first casualty in a war!
I’m a Brit that has been living in the USA since 2010. Ergo, I retain the right for a postal vote in UK elections, and this referendum. I wasn’t sure what to do but voted Remain because that struck me as the safer option. But that doesn’t stop me worrying deeply about my old home country. The only change is now I worry deeply about both my old home and my new home country. It’s almost as though there’s no intelligent (political) life anymore.
All of which is a long-winded way of me saying that this blog, and the many interesting comments, is one of the few sources left where I might better understand just what on earth is going on.
Keep on investing in the truth, Richard!
The BBC current poll of polls is showing Remain 45% amd Brexit 42% leaving 13% don’t knows. Split the don’t knows 50:50 and it comes close to your 51:49 scenerio.
I’m scared that people might be using this as a way of deposing Cameron/Osborne without any thought beyond that. This isn’t a quasi general election.
A good summary John D – I might also be at 75%. But in most exams that would be regarded as a good result.
Most important for me is your second point – that a vote for out will significantly strengthen the hand of those whose views in the main, are far more neo-liberal than what we have now, but a vote for Remain gives us the chance to push at what I feel is an unlocked, if not open door for reform
The more I read and think about this whole situation, the phrase ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’ becomes more prominent. Leaving is a leap into the unknown, which is made worse with no actual plan as to what we are going to do if we vote out. Staying may bring bring a sigh of relief from some quarters, but it will create an enormous backlash from huge swathes of the population who feel that their concerns are not being properly addressed.
I was decided on leave, but now I’m not so sure. I do not want to be tethered to an institution that feigns left wing ideology while exercising right wing economic dogma, and is completely opposed to change, even though they must be aware if they don’t, the very thing they feared (the rise of fascism) is a direct result of their actions. At the same time, I recognise that the disruption from leaving (and the probable retribution from the EU) could be more destructive than we could possibly imagine.
One thing I can say is that the status quo cannot remain no matter what the outcome is, and it’s going to get very ugly.
Buy time for proper reform then
‘I do not want to be tethered to an institution that feigns left wing ideology while exercising right wing economic dogma.’
This sums up the cognitive dissonance of the EU and its depoliticisation (which is happening all over the Developed world). It has certain liberal , social justice inclinations on paper, but is controlled by the puppet masters at the IMF who have instituted their scorched earth policies and rentier firesales wherever they go -at present Greece is fighting to avoid privatisation of its water supply -you can imagine what will happen if that goes ahead-millions cut off.
The EU has already created fascism by being a willing stooge to the IMF – I cannot see this diminishing given that utter failure of the Left. We will certainly see a rising tide of discontent in this country whatever the result (I anticipate a remain) and until we get a Left party that CAN be political and no longer see the economy as a ‘weather system’ they can only have a passive relationship with -I see much unpleasantness and conflict without much rational analysis.
I was already convinced. Reading this, I am more so – and watching Prof Dougan from Liverpool with the detail of the catastrophe that is in the making:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8
This works! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y
That is a very interesting last comment Richard. I too am a reluctant remainer. I acknowledge that 1) the EU does need serious reform, not least because an attitude allows for the negotiation of TTIP in secret where 87% of the meetings have been with corporate stakeholders and only 13% with NGOs/ unions etc shows just how far from democracy the EU is straying. That said, they can only do so because of the neo-liberal mindset. Where are those socially democratic overriding principles?
2) I am concerned that a remain vote will, given 1) above and all the other issues that are boiling in the EU, be taken by the EU as an endorsement – on one level – for business as usual. Their focus quickly turning to other pressing problems.
3) The frustration is that the vote is a Yes/No choice, leaving many on both sides with a ‘clothespeg on your nose’ decision. A more nuanced vote for ‘Yes, but ….’ or ‘No, but….’ would have allowed voters to be less uncertain and fearful of the potential repercussions of the choice they are making and would actually inform the government and each other of how britain sees itself within and without Europe. (the ‘what does Britain stand for? question) Regrettably, we were not given this referendum for our good, but as pawns on others’ chessboard.
4)My belief is that the UK economy is majorly built on sand due to decades of hollowing out, mismanagement, short-termism and profit taking. It is severely unbalanced. As a result, my prediction is that it could come out of this on the worst side of the forecasts. Given the vulture capitalism and the opportunity for speculators to make money out of others’ demise, I anticipate a run on the £.
5) We have seen that a large number of voters are not open to reason (whether through dogma, insecurity, distrust or lack of undrstanding) and therefore this vote is being taken by anything but a rational, balanced majority. A jawdropping and not untypical example today being a neighbour who told me that “the EU is getting rid of the queen and the £, so we have to leave”, and she was utterly deaf enquiries as to how could she back up that statement and by whose authority did she think our democracy would let this happen. The emotions are fever pitched, still.
6) And by that token, just under 50% of the population are going to be very disheartened on 24th June, and may well feel the UK is no longer their country but cannot go elsewhere. Where are the Solomons that we need to have the wisdom as to placate the losing side and stop the triumphalism of the winning side? Who will put humpty dumpty back togethr again? We do not have politicians of that stature and gravitas who have either the ability or the trust of the electorate to mediate, and after the way the Scots were manipulated with empty promises to vote ‘yes’ I dont think the losers will go quietly. There is no opportunity for a second bite of the cherry to this referendum.
So yes, while the EU should be challenged and reformed, now is not the time and the place for the UK to do it through this mechanism, for all of the reasons above. Responsible government has strategic vision and economic plans which go longer than electoral cycles; responsible governments educate and inform their voters so that they buy into those plans (ie the need for high levels of immigration). We have had neither, for 40 years, and boy are we about to reap the blowback from “There is no such thing as society”. Sounding like ‘Courageous State’ Richard. 🙂
On the other hand, had we had a responsible government in that time, we would not be having a referendum, n’est pas?
Lots to agree with there
Keith, Neoliberalism was launched in the UK and US. It is more deeply entrenched in these two nations than anywhere else in the world. Europe has come to Neoliberalism later (largely promoted by Germany) but it remains conflicted as can be seen in the French street potests,the challenge to TTIP,the promotion of various models of basic income, the higher levels of spending on health and infrastructure and by policies such as the criminalisation of the privatisation of water in the Netherlands. If you believe that Neoliberalism is the enemy then it would be logical to vote Remain so that it can be challenged both here in Britain and also in Europe where there is already some resistance to its onward march. Neoliberalism must be tackled at an international level if its worst effects are to be constrained. To vote leave is to reduce Britain’s part in this dialogue as a much reduced influence in the world. If you want to effect change meaningfully it is necessary to challenge the prevailing ideology in Britain AND in Europe. Therefore for me it is the rational choice for those on the left.
Well put jpm.
As you say, the US and UK are much further down the neo-liberal track and a Brexit vote will usher in an even more neo-liberal inclined government, likely to do even more damage. That would include signing an unmodified TTITP and accelerating NHS privatisation.
Even Germany has gone nowhere near as far as the UK; it has a healthy manufacturing sector, supported by regional banks, workers on boards, strong supportive policies on renewables, state railways and nowhere near same enthusiasm for privatisation. That’s not to defend their attitudes to Greece, but I’d be happy to have policies like that in the UK
being out of the EU does not stop alliances forming, indeed, all the alliances formed to deal with TTIP and anti-austerity groupings can make those alliances whether the EU exists or not – so I consider that argument otiose.
But you are right to say that neo-liberalism is largely the product of the UK and America which goes back to the ‘special reparations’ we can observe the rentier wealth extraction of housing at its most extreme in the U.S and UK.
The German model is usually referred to as ‘ordoliberalism’. Never the less, despite Germany having a healthier banking system it is still practising ‘internal devaluation’ and repressive policies for the unemployed as well as being austerity obsessed.
Why is it all ways Bretrix case bought up is it because it is right wing way,and can pick holes though it all the time, they ignore the Lexit case because it deals with the truth. And those who want in the EU can’t bring a single arguement up against Lexit case for leaving.
@www.lexit.org.uk
https://www.facebook.com/www.lexit.org.uk/
Sorry, but that’s just an absurd claim in the light of all I have written
It is very clearly you who is not engaging in debate
Do so pleAse or do not try again
Sorry, this is a lazy riposte but it’s getting late and I’m pretty much ‘referendumed’ out. I’ve just read this on The Conversation, as others will have also. It addresses the Lexit issue more coherently than I ever could – https://theconversation.com/left-wingers-for-brexit-need-to-wake-up-to-what-theyre-about-to-do-61259. Hope it helps.
It does
I think you’re being enormously optimistic. I sincerely hope we don’t vote to leave. If we do, according to Prof Dougan, the constitutional fallout will be catastrophic and I believe those in the Leave campaign know this.
Michael Gove has repeatedly said we will ‘regain control over our own laws.’ According to Dougan, if we leave, there will be a legal imperative to rewrite *all* UK Laws passed in the past 40 years. (or at least, all that have been passed on the premise that we’re a member of the EU, which is all the ones that matter).
in his opinion, Parliament won’t be able to do that – it’s too big a job – so the government will do it and I doubt very much if Theresa May will get a look in. This is Gove, the Maoist (see Cameron on a number of occasions; “he thinks things have to be broken before we can build them up”) who will implement the purest form of Shock Doctrine. He’s super bright and very driven and he has no sense that Shock Doctrine has failed in every country where it’s been attempted from Pinochet’s Chile through to Iraq.
So we get the conflagration of labour laws, environmental protections, health and safety… anything that gets in the way of profit. And at the same time, the final dismantling of all public services so that the flow of finance from the public to the private purse is no longer hampered.
And on top of that, if Dougan is right, the negotiations to separate – the ‘divorce’ if you will – has to take 2 years… but the renegotiations of what trade deals we might want to enter into could take decades (as they have with Switzerland). Or we follow Norway and sign up to the Free Market which means we allow the free movement of labour.
I don’t think any of this is accidental. I sincerely hope it doesn’t happen. I also sincerely hope that the leadership of the left-leaning parties have some plan in place for both eventualities (an in vote and an out vote). I’m not remotely convinced that they have either.
In my desperate moments I wonder if, after a vote for Brexit, the EU shouldn’t for this one last time before its own reform, just do what it often does with difficult outcomes and ask us to try again 🙂
On an even more optimistic note! any Brexit Bill through the current Parliament, which has a clear minority of leavers is unlikely to receive an easy passage, particularly with a small referendum majority.
And if the Bill were not passed, presumably cue a general election, where party loyalty and EU loyalty would have to be declared and you’d need to hope the outcome reflected the referendum vote. Or perhaps new parties might be created to reflect EU preferences. Parliament might even be bounced into some Constitutional Reform…
In fairness, if house prices crash that will be massively to the benefit of most people.
If sterling plummets that will aid what remains of our manufacturing industry.
It doesn’t begin to balance the negatives, the main one of which is that we’ve let the mob have its way. 5 years after Brexit expect the reintroduction of capital punishment, 10 years after expect an end to immigration, 15 years after bans on homosexuality & aborttion.
In the meantime, obviously, the North American can become the North Atlantic Free Trade Association & we can start gearing up to be the 52nd state, What a lovely thought,
Negative equity hits very hard
So do failed banks
Falling currency value has so far resulted in record trade deficits
Your economics us faulty
The rest, maybe not
Richard,
Whichever way you look at it house prices need to fall and a LOT – the reason negative equity hits hard is because of the total lack of any Government policy to deal with those effects -it’s what happens when Governments are supine and ‘depoliticised.’ We’ve had 40 years of that.
There is an argument for a housing crash to be allowed to happen WITH bail outs involved so that the hardest hit have a form of tapered relief. There is no point in talking about a ‘hitless’ situation because the hit is being taken now by:
1) The young
2) People with absurd mortgages going to shyster banks
3) people with absurd rents going to rentier shysters
4) The hit taken by the general economy as people service housing debt
5) The lack of money velocity as people service rents/mortgages often at 60% of disposable income.
So the HIT is there and if there is to be a hit let’s have the ‘broad shouldered bastards’ taking it for a change who are drooling scrooge-like over their chest of housing bubble gold.
A tapered hit in the housing are is needed. I accept a crash without Government safety net would be chaotic but if we had thinking politicians who could actually construct a controlled housing crash that would be another matter.
It’s possible but no-one talks about it -either way someone gets the hit and after 40 years of housing bubble shit which is the CHIEF wrecking ball of the economy and socila and cultural life something has got to give before it leads to fascism.
(Let’s remind ourselves: two thirds of Tory Party have greasy fingers in property pies, some on a very large scale/perhaps up to a third of Labour dip their fingers in this primeval slime as well).
In the end, who cares?
“Life is a joke, and all things show it, I thought so once but now I know it”
I care
I don’t think it is a joke! it’s a shysters paradise perhaps but definitely not a joke.
To quote Morrisey:
” That joke isn’t funny anymore
it’s too close to home
and too near the bone.”
and passing the NHS Reinstatement Bill.
I care because the repeal of the 2009 Climate Change Act is first on their bonfire of regulations and my contacts in the climate change world tell me we have 35 years to stop the supertanker of CO2 emissions or we’ll hit 6 degrees of warming and all this will be completely irrelevant.
If we manage to stop the march of the Shock Doctrinaires… then perhaps we can elect a government that understands the need for social, economic and environmental sustainability,
that would be rather wonderful.
A telling piece from Paul Mason on how the working class are being thoroughly conned by the Leave campaign
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-fake-revolt-eu-working-class-culture-hijacked-help-elite?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=The+Best+of+CiF+base&utm_term=178293&subid=6319223&CMP=ema_1364