I wrote yesterday of the end of my European dream, and that is a theme I will return to when the Joy of Tax is finished (and the last chapter is due to the publisher on Friday). But, more pragmatically the German dream of Europe also looks to be coming to an end. As an FT email says this morning:
The International Monetary Fund has sent a strong signal that it may walk away from Greece's new bailout programme, arguing that it will not be able to participate if European creditors do not offer Athens substantial debt relief. The move again raises the pressure on Germany, which has opposed any debt relief, just as it prepares to seek the approval of its parliament to negotiate the details of a new bailout hashed out in a summit at the weekend.
Someone had to stand up to Germany and, firstly, to tell it to get its economics right, secondly, to negotiate realistic terms and, thirdly, to get off its high horse.
I did not think that would be the IMF but I had failed to take into account its French leadership. I smell a Lagarde / Hollande pact in this move. And right now that's just fine by me. Better a few tears now, some German frustration and a better deal for Greece than all this falling apart in a year's time.
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There is a more compelling explanation for the IMF decision in the Guardian today.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/15/imf-greece-future-analysis-bailout
It points the finger at the US as the heart of the critique, based on the fact that IMF has a US heart (economic / geopolitical analysis) and an EU figurehead (Lagarde).
Treaty of Versailles, Greek branch.
https://varoufakis.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/eurosummit-communique-terms-of-surrender.pdf
Interesting thoughts and I can’t comment on German dreams. But I read Spanish forums and there’s speculation that senior politicians of the Spanish state want Greece out of the Euro but lack the courage to say so. They prefer to appear sympathetic and are glad that Germany is being so harsh so that they don’t have to if that makes sense.
I heard that angle Manuel. Today a German cartoon paper, I won’t state which, shows EZ finance ministers around a chicken farm representing Greece. Schäuble is rubbing filth in the chickens’ faces with a caption above the onlookers saying ‘Someone had to have courage to do that, so the rest of us can feel clean’. What has satire come to?
Please don’t publish
Hello Richard
I’m on troll duty again.
A poster above used Lavrentiy Beria for their moniker. Easy to guess that it’s Worstall reader. Beria was a particularly nasty Stalin cohort. Developed the secret police and had an inordinate amount of power in the darkest days of the USSR.
The posts are usually short, comically gushing, and always ‘courageous state/government’.
Well they think it’s funny. Advise delete. Not that I have right to do that!
Regards
Lawrence in Guernsey