We will have a Conservative lead government on Friday

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There is much debate about what will happen if we have a hung parliament on Friday morning.

The FT forecasts 281 Conservative and 266 Labour seats this morning. The Guardian has 276 and 269 respectively. Some say there will also be a late Tory surge. Maybe there will. I doubt it will deliver anything close to a majority.

Unless things change we know three things.

The first is that David Cameron will declare victory, however bizarre that might sound.

The second is that the LibDems say they will talk to the Tories and seek to form a government with them. Past evidence suggests that they will and that in combination they might command 310 or so seats.

And come 27 May they will find themselves trying to pass a Queen's Speech.

And only then will we know if we will still have a Conservative lead government.

The Conservative desire to rule is so strong I cannot see them giving up without trying to form a government, because they will (probably genuinely) believe Labour should let them do so.

The crisis will come if Labour lets them rule. It can do almost to change events until the Conservatives have tried. That's what the rules and conventions say.

This one is going to run.

But what worries me is what the social reaction to a Conservative attempt to form a government that cannot command a majority might be. I hope it will be calm. Anything else will only play into their hands.

So my message is a simple one: keep calm. Parliament must have its way.