No has won the day. Politics takes on a new direction. Some immediate thoughts.
1. Politics is important
People have realised politics can make a difference.
2. The failure of the parties to get this turnout in most elections is a lesson
Most of the time the mainstream parties fail to motivate people to vote in the way this election has. That is because, I am sure, people think they are not offering them a real choice.
3. The Irish question took more than 40 years to resolve
The Irish question and related constitutional questions dominated the UK parliament from 1880 to the time of independence. The Scottish question has the same power to continue to disrupt.
4. Westminster is a very long way from most people
I have some access to Westminster and know my way around it and it can still feel alien. To most people it is so far away from their lives that I am wholly unsurprised people wanted to kick it. Those who do will play a big role in UK politics for some time to come.
5. Devolution of Housing Benefit is not enough to keep people feeling empowered
This is an issue I will return to today, but if we're talking of devolved powers what are they going to control? In England the NHS and education have already left almost all local control, and these are the big issues for most people, so what powers are going to be given to devolved authorities. There's talk of Scotland getting power to control Housing Benefit. That's not going to resolve anything.
6. Labour has all sorts of problems
Labour has not answered questions in this campaign. What is its position to be on devolved power? And how would it manage an English parliament? It would be hard to control it and yet such a 'rump parliament' (I choose the word with care) would be responsible for 85% of the UK. How can it be that the control of this 'rump' could in fact control whatever still happens in other ares by default?
7. There is no way the House of Lords can survive this
The only way to get round this whole conundrum is to rethink the whole structure of our Westminster parliament. An unelected tier looks more like an anachronism than ever. A second elected tier that is federal in nature is absolutely essential if the cohesion of the UK - which is what the No vote wanted, after all - is to be retained. It will be very easy to forget this point.
8. A lot of people will now doubt that the existing factional interests will be up to this issue
A lot of existing politicians are steeped in the status quo. Too many are very small minded. Vested interests will be powerful. And many are very petty. It will require leadership that is not readily apparently available to lead these die hard conservative thinkers (small c) into any process of change.
9. UKIP is not the same as the SNP
The SNP tried a positive image and eventually sold itself short. UKIP is selling a negative image and will sell everyone short.
10. The elite won. Now, what about everyone else?
Fear that the elite might lose control was the undercurrent of this campaign, and No played it for all it was worth, and won. Many will now feel smug. But what now for the people of the UK who so badly need a well functioning state? Can we have that debate now, please?
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Richard,
Highly sensible, and badly needed, comments on the present political situation, but I can’t find much here that suggests that ‘Politics takes on a new direction’ – everything said here, as far as I can see, is perfectly compatible with politics carrying on more or less as it has done.
One post is not a revolution
I don’t follow you. The first two sentences of the post suggest that because the Scots have voted ‘No’ on the referendum, politics is going to change direction, presumably to more than a negligible extent. My point was that the rest of the post doesn’t offer much evidence in support of that suggestion.
If those sentences weren’t meant to issue a prediction regarding the future course of politics, then I don’t understand what they could mean.
I am saying that the whole blog – not one post – is where I explore the bigger issues
Those were ten thoughts at 6 am on the No vote
Grateful thanks for the clarification.
I concentrated so much attention on those first two sentences because (1) the claim that they seem to be making is of course extremely interesting and (2) I would welcome anything further you had to say about it, pro, con or otherwise – or, for that matter, anything that any of the other (intelligent) contributors to this blog might have to say.
I fear that the Scottish independence referendum is a very special case and therefore no conclusions about an improvement in our political climate can be drawn from it.
T would suggst an 11th, that the labour leadership are, and will be, more than happy to throw everyone, including their own party, under the bus in order to cling to their own craven basement in the establishment.
I am, to put it mildly, disappointed with the result. We remain a local council ans I think a lot of people are going to be harmed by the results.
3. The Irish question took more than 40 years to resolve.
Is it really resolved?
Has it not been the case that over the last 6 or so centuries violent resistence to British interference in the island of Ireland has bubbled up to the surface every few generations?
Is that pattern really not going to repeat itself again?
I don’t know for certain.
Totally fair point
“9. UKIP is not the same as the SNP
The SNP tried a positive image and eventually sold itself short. UKIP is selling a negative image and will sell everyone short.”
I disagree. Nationalism is nationalism. If there is ever a referendum on the UK’s EU membership, Farage and co. will deploy exactly the same arguments that Salmond did during this referendum on Scottish independence. But anybody can present a “positive vision”. It’s usually that they are totally unrealistic. That’s as true as it is for SNP as it is for UKIP.
Finally, you could have substituted the word “Brussels” for every time Salmond said “Westminster” during this referendum campaign and it could have felt just like you were listening to Farage. It was exactly the same rhetoric.
I am sorry, but that is just not true
In the end people voted against independence on both economic grounds and on a genuine desire not to cut their UK ties of over 300+ years. There were many on the left ( i.e. the Labour Party ) including many, many economists who warned about all the consequences and risks to do with a new small state be they an currency crisis , capital and jobs flight, rising business costs, banking reserves needed, transition costs, serious deficit issues and raised costs for sovereign borrowing. This is not ‘elitist or establishment stuff’ its the economy…sensible voters carefully considered and voted and a ‘Nationalist party’ lost.
I wish you were right
I do not think you are
Fear won
And people were sold it, very hard
It requires a fairly Panglossian outlook to find anything positive in this outcome.
1. The campaign of fear won out
2. The last minute empty promises of the Westminster cabal (which will never be honoured) won over many undecided voters.
3. The backlash against Labour in Scotland under a FPTP system now make a Conservative majority at the next election a near certainty.
4. A Conservative majority is going to use the same tactics to pull us out of the EU and Scotland which will continue to reject Tory candidates is going to be punished and punished severely.
When the number of food banks in Scotland triples I hope the ‘no’ voters realise they own that outcome.
Ross: I agree with points 1 and 2 but I don’t think a Tory majority at the next election is likely – disaffected Labour voters in 2015 will turn to the SNP, not the Tories, and I would be v surprised if the Tories picked up any more seats in Scotland. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are likely to lose seats in Scotland as elsewhere – either to Labour or the SNP. Labour is still ahead (narrowly) in national polling and stands a good chance of forming a majority govt, or at least being the largest party; I would say that Tory chances of an overall majority on current parliamentary boundaries are very slim – fortunately!
But if cameron strips MPs in Scotland of their ability to vote on laws affecting only England, on things like the NHS and taxation, then Labour could win the election, but be unable to govern on key areas.
That would also bring problems in repealing any such law…
Labour may, of course, not win many seats if the Yes vote in the GE for SNP and No do not vote at all
I think that quite likely
Too simplistic by far- Edinburgh folk for example voted 60% against narrow nationalism. They have an academic, cultural, economic, business, international outlook which is more Social Democratic/Labour, than what a SNP could offer – just as we here in England would never vote for a Nationalist party. The realities were not just this ‘progressive ideological outlook’ but further real concerns about jobs, pensions, trade, savings,capital flight, banking reserves , new sovereign state fiscal issues, Euro issues etc., Older voters do worry – they are dependent on their pension pots. Women worry as they too are often more dependent on public services and what a secure government can offer them and their children The risks were too high especially as many Scots appreciated more revenue spending than say most others in the UK.
Your analysis is very simplistic based on some romantic belief that this was a ‘proxy’ fight between elites/establishment and the downtrodden. Both the UK and Scotland are leading wealthy countries albeit with inequality in places ( like parts of Glasgow) but that was not this battle. We now move on to get a UK Labour victory and stop the Right Wing nutters taking over further and dragging us out of the EU. One battle is over others now begin.
Edinburgh is the Scottish Establishment
Your argument failed from the first line
That was what swung Edinburgh
Now you have to hope labour delivers and its power to do so is not removed first
gutted for the Scots but the voter turnout and narrowness of the victory puts a big thumb up the arse of the establishment.
it’s now glaringly obvious that if a political party offers a genuine alternative to ‘the three arse cheeks’, the working class will engage with politics and vote in their droves. i just pray to god it’s not UKIP.
Agreed
There were justified concerns on the left about NATO membership, the keeping of sterling rather than having their own currency and EU membership.
Yet this is a fabulous opportunity missed. Yes, the SNP were likely as not going to use a neoliberal prescription such as low tax regime in order to attract foreign investment.
But hopes were so high, it is likely as not the SNP would be removed if they delivered the same old tired neoliberal prescriptions.
The Scots pretty much had a blank page to start again politically, socially and economically.
I fear the Scots may rue this missed opportunity.
That is what we all fear