I've just noticed a Fabian Society email that starts:
Like it or not (and a lot of Fabians definitely do not), most analysts predict a hung Parliament after the 2015 General Election.
Why, one has to ask? First, why did I read the mail (research, I promise you) and second, why do they want to promote this idea?
Let's look at the facts: just after two years after a general election they lost badly Labour is consistently 10% in the lead in polls. That's astonishing. It's a massive electoral recovery at a near record rate. And yes, it is a measure of how bad the Coalition is. And maybe it's helped by Labour saying not a lot: things may get worse when people realise Labour are still talking cuts more than anything else, which is absurd.
But nothing about such predictions makes much sense, at all. To put it another way, they just look wrong, right now.
But there's a long way to go. Unfortunately.