This is my quote of the year, from Prof David Blanchflower, in the Observer magazine, 27 December 2009, not available on line:
If a new government got in and started cutting public spending [unemployment] could rise to four or five million. It would be the economics of lunacy to cut public spending any time soon – certainly 2010 and maybe 2011. We’d have a double dip recession, maybe even a triple dip.
This starkly summarises the difference in approach to the recession from left and right, pulls no punches, explains why unemployment has stabilised and makes clear what the Tories want to do and what the conseuqnces will be. As Blanchflower makes clear:
you reduce the stimulus too soon and get a double dip – the economy goes off a cliff – it’s not a good idea to risk going over Beachy Head.
But that’s what George Osborne wants to do.
Blanchflower was right in calling the recession in the first place. He’s right on this. But will people listen this time?