Sorry to brag – but I’ve just read the Jersey Business Plan for 2010. And this is where it now forecasts its finance will be over the next few years:
Back in 2007 when Jersey published its business plan for 2008 I said its predictions were ludicrous. They claimed the following at that time:
This is pretty much the red line noted above.
I said the following was much more likely (the second column headed 2008 should read 2009 – apologies):
So, OK, I forecast the decline would be faster than it has actually been. But I note I was a lot closer, a lot sooner, to the true likely long term picture than the States of Jersey were.
Respectfully, their forecasts never did make sense – and I remain quite convinced they will be at the bottom range of their current forecast.
Tow final thoughts: first they can find only £6 million of cuts in response to this – about 1% of spending. And apparently this includes such things as cutting baby milk in their maternity unit! I think this a significant indicator of what will happen in the UK – talk of 15% cuts is ludicrous – they just aren’t there to be had. Second, they are saying the obvious response is new taxes and charges. Sorry to brag again, but I told them that in face to face discussion with Senator Le Sueur – their first minister – way back in 2005.
They didn’t listen then. I don’t suppose they will now. But it might have paid them to do so. they’d be a lot better off if they had.
As it is, I confidently predict that my other prediction - that Jersey is heading to go bust - remains likely.