It’s been revealed that H M Revenue & Customs’ bad debt in 2009-10 was £10.9 billion.

According to HMRC’s accounts the provision was £10 billion in 2010-11 and £11.5 billion in 2009-10. They did not, as far as I can see (and I’ve searched) disclose a write off figure.

In earlier years write offs of about £4 billion a year were considered normal.

So why the increase? Well that’s easy to explain. If you sack your debt collectors your bad debt goes up, and that’s exactly what HMRC under the direction of Dave Hartnett has been doing. In 2005 HMRC had 100,000 staff. By 2015 it will be 50,000. Many of these were debt collectors.

Total HMRC staff costs in 2010-11 were just over £2.2 billion. Seeking to reduce that has cost many, many times that sum.

No wonder the tax profession, HMRC staff unions and anyone trying to deal with HMRC agree that HMRC is understaffed. Now we know the cost.

When will sanity prevail and more spending on staff at HMRC be sanctioned? It’s the only way to solve the tax gap.

 

It’s been revealed that the UK’s national accounts for 2009-10 include tax bad debt of £10.9 billion.

I found this interesting. That’s because, as regular readers will know, I’ve been writing about the ‘tax gap’ since 2006, and pretty much forced this issue onto HMRC’s agenda in 2008, as government papers at the time showed. The tax gap is made up of three parts. The first is tax avoidance (£25 billion in my estimate), the second tax evasion (£70 billion in my estimate) and the third tax paid late (£25 million according to HMRC of which they have said about £4 billion a year has been written off on average in previous years. This definition of the gap is not mine by the way: HMRC agree with it, except they ignore tax paid late and recovered in their numeric calculations despite including it in their definitions.

But if they do include bad debt of £10.9 billion then their latest estimates of the tax gap – supposedly for the same year, 2009-10 are even more wildly inaccurate than we thought, because they claim that in total the tax gap is just £35 billion that year. That would mean there was just £24 billion of tax avoided and evaded, and yet as I have shown using World Bank figures for the UK shadow economy, it’s implausible that we have a tax evasion gap of less than £70 billion (which so happens to agree with my estimate of the same gap based largely on VAT data). If the HMRC claim on the total tax gap were right tax evasion would be little more than £20 billion – and that’s just 3.6% of total overall tax revenues.

No country on earth has a tax evasion rate as low as that.  Switzerland is supposedly the cleanest domestic economy on earth and has a shadow economy of 8.5%.

So what this data says is that not only do the national accounts have some surprises in them, but HMRC are lying about the scale of the tax gap. Sorry to use such language, but on this occasion it seems appropriate (and they can always sue me if they wish). But I don’t think they will. What this data reveals is that not only have they not previously told the truth on the scale of bad debts HMRC has been suffering, they’ve also been disguising that data in the figures on the tax gap they have been producing. As I’ve said all along.

 

The Telegraph reported yesterday that:

People who receive cash-in-hand payments for goods and services are harming the economy, according to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) most senior taxman Dave Hartnett.

Speaking to the Daily Telegraph, he criticised tradesmen and other workers who try to get out of paying tax by asking for their payment in cash and said there will be a crackdown to catch individuals who do so from April 2012 onwards.

Mr Hartnett claimed evading VAT or income tax is ‘diddling’ the economy and will lead to further cuts for things like hospitals and schools.

“Tax provides the funding to run the country: hospitals, schools and everything else. Every time someone pays cash in order not to pay VAT, the nation gets diddled,” he remarked.

Of course Hartnett is right: the tax gap, about which I have campaigned for years, and which I forced (via the TUC) onto HMRC’s agenda and in turn into national debate,  is of course a major factor in the management of the deficit. Given that the gap is £120 billion that has to be true.
But let’s be clear, welcome as Hartnett’s recognition of this obvious fact is, he has ultimate responsibility for the fact that the gap is this big for two reasons.
First of all, he’s denied the size of the gap, persistently – and the propaganda his department put out under his direction about how small the gap supposedly is in his view has been used by him and his colleagues to leave this matter alone and to deny its significance. HMRC say the tax gap is just £35 billion right now (see the table, here). The numbers are grossly inaccurate for reasons I explain here, here and at length here. The consequence is obvious: too little attention has been paid to the issue and that is because HMRC worked persistently to hide its own incompetence to hide the fact.
Second, using the incorrect data his department produced Hartnett justified reducing the staff in HMRC. The numbers will fall from 100,000 in 2005 to about 50,000 in 2015. And like it or not collecting criminals requires human activity to detect and prove the crime. Tax evasion is a crime and there aren’t enough people now employed to detect much of it – so the tax gap has grown. Hartnett is responsible for that. And we see the result in cuts in services, pensions, disability living allowances, education, health, defence and so much more.
So sure, Hartnett’s right – people should not pay in cash knowing the cash will not be declared to tax authorities. But the biggest culprit by far in the creation of the massive UK tax gap that threatens our pubic services is Hartnett himself – and he’s just trying to deflect the truth by making the claims he’s now seeking to make in valedictory effort to justify his actions.

 

David Callahan has written a  blog under the above title on the Reuters web site.

As he notes, the simple fact is that around the world deficits are largely the result of the tax gap. The tax gap is the difference between the amount of tax that should be collected each year by a government using the laws it has passed and the actual amount it collects. As he notes:

The United States isn’t alone in facing an epidemic of tax evasion. Cheating is much worse elsewhere and is a major factor in the budget woes of European countries. A study released in November by the Tax Justice Network estimated that $3.1 trillion is lost worldwide every year to tax evasion, with Europe accounting for half that total. Few countries lose more revenue than Italy, where, the report said, over a quarter of all economic activity goes untaxed–or a staggering $238 billion a year in a country with an economy seven times smaller than that of the United States.

Global leaders are waking up fast to the need for aggressive cooperative efforts to shut down offshore havens. One outcome of the G-20 summit last fall in Cannes was an agreement to fight these havens using diplomatic and economic pressure. European leaders hope these and other initiatives will bring in tens of billions in revenues.

Making it harder to hide money in foreign banks will also mean new revenues for the U.S. Treasury. Ultimately, though, plugging the biggest leaks in the U.S. tax system will require far more disclosure and tracking of business income, along with a substantially stronger IRS–none of which is popular with Republicans on Capitol Hill.

The sting is in the tails there. Two tails, I should add. The first sting is the lack of willing to use real armoury (metaphorical I stress, but real none the less) against tax havens. The second is the lack of political will on the political right, and not just the Republicans in the USA but across the whole spectrum of the right, to invest in tax authorities to collect the money due to government by law.

It’s extraordinary that the right – who are natural conservatives and upholders of law and order – so consciously refuse to uphold the law when it comes to tax. Even more surprising is their desire - explicitly stated, very often – to allow those who commit the crimes to get away with them because that, they think, promotes growth. So bigoted are they about governemtn that crime against it is somehow acceptable.

And that’s why we’re in the mess we’re in.

 

One of the US readers of this blog, Kenneth Thomas, who writes the Middle Class Political Economist blog, wrote the following and I reproduce it with his permission as it is very apposite here:

On Friday, the IRS released a new report on tax evasion in the U.S. (via Demos’ Policy Shop and h/t to @BlogWood). Using data for 2006 (its previous tax gap report used 2001 data), it found a gross tax gap (income tax due but not paid on time) of $450 billion and a net tax gap (factoring in tax paid late) of $385 billion for 2006, versus $345 billion gross and $290 billion net in 2001. This was due almost entirely to higher income and tax liability, not an increased percentage of cheating. As Policy Shop points out, over 10 years, this will get us to well over $3 trillion in lost taxes.

As I reported last month, the Tax Justice Network estimated that global tax evasion was over $3 trillion annually. TJN’s estimate for the U.S. was $337 billion for 2010, less than the IRS figure of $385 billion for 2006 even though GDP was higher in 2010 than 2006. Thus, the IRS figures confirm the validity of the TJN estimates. Indeed, it is quite possible that Richard Murphy’s estimate in the TJN report actually understates the amount of tax evasion globally.

There are a number of eye-popping numbers in the IRS report, beyond simply the magnitude of tax evasion. Most evasion takes the form of underreporting and underpayment, not non-filing. The amount of dollars lost to underreporting rose by 32% between 2001 and 2006; one-third of that increase came in the corporate income tax.As another sign of growing inequality in the U.S., between 2001 and 2006 corporate income tax due doubled (meaning that profits approximately doubled), while individual income only rose by 15%.

Not surprising, but still striking, is what the report says about who cheats on their taxes. People subject to both information and withholding requirements only underreport 1% of their income; people or businesses subject to information reporting  but not withholding misreport 8%, but entities subject to neither information or reporting requirement, “such as business income” [on the individual, not corporate, income tax] has a 56% misreporting ratio. Since middle class taxpayers mainly fall in the first group, it is obvious that most of the opportunities for cheating belong to the wealthy.

To put this in dollar terms, of the $450 billion gross tax gap, $376 billion of it comes from underreporting income. $235 billion is on individual income tax, of which $122 billion is business income (in addition, there is another $57 billion in self-employment tax that is underreported). Finally, $67 billion of corporate income tax due was underreported. (And this is only illegal tax evasion. Abusive corporate tax avoidance, some of which will be declared illegal retroactively, would add many billions more.)

What rich individuals and corporations don’t pay in taxes, shows up as higher taxes on the middle class, bigger budget deficits, program cuts, or some combination of the three. 2006′s $385 billion in net evasion of federal taxes would cover about 1/4 of the FY 2011 budget deficit (and, as Policy Shop notes, it exceeded the $248 billion budget deficit of 2006). As Policy Shop says, the case for giving the IRS further resources for enforcement is a strong one, but Republicans in Congress are actually trying to reduce enforcement resources.

That opposition needs to be overcome.

Time and again people tell me and the Tax Justice Network we get things wrong and time and again we’re proven to be right. I hope H M Revenue & Customs here take note: their claim that the UK tax gap is just £35 billion and is tax lost on 7% of the economy is ludicrous in the light of this US data. My own estimates of £70 billion of evasion and £25 billion of avoidance are the ones they, and government, should be working with, and even then they’re running at a rate little different from the US findings.

 

I am delighted that readers of Left Foot Forward voted Caroline Lucas, the Green MP for Brighton Pavilion, their ‘progressive of the year’.

As Left Foot Forward have said in their citation:

Caroline Lucas MP, leader of the Green party. Caroline, in addition to her party’s primary mission on the environment, has taken the lead on tackling the scandal of the rich and super-rich avoiding and evading tax, an issue back in the headlines this week with the exposing of HMRC’s deals with big businesses.

In March, she tabled a new Tax and Financial Transparency Bill in Parliament, saying urgent measures were needed to stop companies that are formally dissolved from trading fraudulently and undermining honest businesses who pay their taxes. More here and here.

I’m also pleased to note that the Bill in question was based on the findings of my work, which Caroline assisted. She though was the MP with the courage to carry it through. We need more MPs like Caroline Lucas.

 

One of the perpetual obsessions of the right wing of politics is law and order. It is they argue the fundamental duty of the state to defend the citizen, and even more importantly, their property from all assaults from criminal wrong-doers. And I have to say I see a lot of good reason for thinking that true.

But they drop that demand when it comes to tax. On Friday I published research with the Tax Justice Network and the Tackling Tax Havens web site detailing tax evasion in 145 countries, including the UK. The UK, I suggested, loses £69.9bn a year as a result. I never once suggested it could recover all that: clearly it could not. No tax system is fool proof against crime. But it is very obvious we could do a great deal more – and I suggested that stopping sacking tax inspectors was the first and obvious step in the process.

What has the reaction been? Tim Worstall, that perennial spokesperson for all that is bizarre in right wing thinking, has given one response. He has said , quoting my paper:

we can see that the average tax as percentage of GDP in European countries is 38.9%. Let us imagine that the sensitivity of currently untaxed activities to taxation is 40%. So, we go off and collect, on the next £10 billion of economic activity, our 38.9%. We get £3.89 billion in tax revenue.

Well, actually, no we don’t. For by taxing it we’ve reduced that economic activity by 40%. So, when taxed, there’s only £6 billion in activity. We actually get £2.33 billion in revenue. But economic activity has fallen by £4 billion.

We’re poorer overall.

We’d be better off just not worrying about what those criminal bastards, the tax dodgers, are doing over there in the last 10-15% of the economy. We’re made richer by ignoring it.

Let’s be explicit about what he’s saying here: he’s explicitly condoning crime. He’s saying we should simply allow it. He says we’re better off for this criminal conduct.

It’s an astonishing argument. It’s like arguing we would be better off if looting were allowed – which would certainly increase the consumption of some. Because let’s be clear – that’s what tax evasion is akin to. It’s looting. It’s looting from those who are honest and pay to support those who act criminally and will not pay.

And what would happen if Worstall was right? Well, of course, the tax system would fail, rapidly, as it already is when it comes to small businesses, where as I have shown well over half of all small companies already fail to submit tax returns each year. So we’d rapidly descend to the point where Greece is. Where the welfare state would fail (as no doubt Worstall wants), where criminality was normal, where trust failed as everyone was fiddling and honesty was but a memory, and where business itself also collapses becasue in that environemnt the incentive to invest, produce or even work fails. You might just as well be criminal. That seems to be what Worstall wants.

He could, of course, be dismissed as the usual right wing libertarian extremist except for the fact that there are so many of them in the Tory party and even some highly placed Lib Dems who agree with him. But medium sized firms of accountants seem to share this view too. In the Telegraph today it is reported that Hacker Young have issued a new report in which they say:

extra investigations and more aggressive stance by the HM Revenue and Customs risks making the UK a less attractive jurisdiction for businesses.

“The Government and HMRC now seem to believe that they found the secret of alchemy,” said Roy Maugham, tax partner at the firm.

“All they need to do is invest more money in tax investigations and compliance work and the extra tax income will keep flooding in.

“The reality is that much of the money that HMRC collects from compliance work is from businesses that feel intimidated into settling or where HMRC is able to outspend a less well-resourced small or medium sized company.”

Mr Maugham said many UK companies have moved their domicile overseas to Ireland, Switzerland and Malta not just because of the UK’s high business taxes but because of the increasingly aggressive attitude of HMRC to tax collection.

“There is a downside to their tough approach,” he said.

Or in other words – despite the enormous losses to tax evasion and tax abuse this firm seems to be saying H M Revenue & Customs should back off and let business get away with what I might call an  honesty box approach to taxation. Bluntly, if true that’s another argument supporting what would be an inevitable step towards the creation of a criminogenic business environment.

It is utterly irresponsible of this firm to argue as they do, in my opinion. And their representation of the taxpayer being bludgeoned into paying is so far from the truth it is ridiculous. I am under no illusiuon about how tough a tax investigation is – I have done them. But honest taxpayers also, I know, have nothing to fear from them. I have never seen a penny paid that was not owed. Not on my cases anyway. That’s why this argument is so disingenuous.

Hacker Young should, I think, be ashamed of themselves. All  accountants should be applauding a tough investigations regime. Honest business can only thrive on the basis of a level playing field – and that only exists when everyone pays their tax that is owing, in full.

But it seems many want a biased playing field – a playing field where the dishonest get all the advntages and rip off honest business and taxpayers until the point where society itself would collapse under the burden of their crime.

Is that what the right wing are coming to? It certainly looks like it. And it’s something the left have to challenge. Robustly.

 

Interesting commentary from Andreas Whittam Smith in the Independent this morning, who says:

What are people angry about? The deepening recession? Yes. The high level of youth unemployment? Yes. The excesses of the bankers? Yes. But more than anything, I believe, people are rattled by the widening gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots”. The banners at demonstrations that proclaim, “We are the 99 per cent” speak eloquently to that. “We are getting nothing, while the other 1 per cent is getting everything.” Many people think so.

And he concludes:

[G]overnments can make changes in personal taxation. They can deal with the hidden truth about taxes on the very rich: that they are easily avoided.

The millionaire who, when his fortune is made, goes to live in the Isle of Man, is a tax dodger. The rich man who purchases a farm for its tax advantages, even though he has zero knowledge of and interest in agriculture, is a tax dodger. The employees of investment banks who benefited from trusts that gave them non-repayable loans so that they could avoid paying National Insurance (schemes that were subsequently closed down by HM Revenue & Customs) were tax dodgers. Making the rich pay all their taxes would be a good place to start in the enormous task of reducing inequality.

Precisely so.

But the tax profession is clearly already lining up to oppose Graham Aaronson’s proposed attack on the most egregious tax abuse schemes.

Will those who support tax abuse never listen?

And why do government’s continually listen to the abusers and not those who want to do the tight thing? Why is it so hard to support ethical behaviour?

 
#OccupyNorwich have just issued the following press release:

Occupy Norwich continue their series of discussions on the crisis at 1pm on Sunday at their camp on The Haymarket with a visit by Norfolk-based anti-poverty campaigner and tax expert Richard Murphy.  All are welcome to attend and join in the discussion about the global economic crisis.

He is the writer of the No 1 economics blog in the UK, and the co-author of “Tax Havens: How Globalisation Really Works” and is due to have another book,”The Courageous State”, published shortly.

He is a founder of the Tax Justice Network www.taxjustice.net and is now the director of Tax Research LLP www.taxresearch.org.uk, carrying out taxation policy analysis for aid agencies, trade unions and pressure groups, and also a member of the Green New Deal Group www.greennewdealgroup.org, which advocates financial reform plus green spending on such things as renewable energy and home insulation to beat both the environmental and economic crises

On Sunday he will discuss his research on the ‘tax gap’, the difference between the tax that ought to be paid and the tax that is actually paid, with evasion, avoidance and simple non-payment amounting to around £120 billion per annum – easily enough to avoid all government cuts

Quote from Richard Murphy:

“The economic crisis has one cause – the tax gap. Collecting tax will be the solution”

See you there?