There is always a danger that you might get what you hope for. I mention the point because many on the left want there to be a second referendum on Brexit. Discussions I am having suggest that such a vote is becoming more likely. But the assumption is that Remain would win. My question is, would it?
First though, why this might happen? Let's assume May fails to get the Chequers deal approved by Europe in November. The assumption is she will resign.
Who will replace her? Javid or Gove.
What will they do? Seek to renegotiate.
They will fail. Their backstop is a second referendum. They know they cannot do a general election. They would lose that.
The EU is used to second referendums. It will allow an Article 50 extension to allow for a vote.
And then what's happens? The answer is that a massively well funded neo-fascist Exit campaign, which is already prepared, will slip into operation.
They know no lies are off limits now.
They know no funding limit breaches will be punished.
And they know Remain will play be the rules that they will completely ignore.
And who will win?
What do you think?
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I guess at least now most folk have seen diddly squat agreed after nearly two years of “negotiations” and pretty dire predictions by a lot of companies that actually have to trade overseas, just maybe people will be a bit better informed as to how difficult a decent agreement will be. Hopefully too that will help them see through the bluster by the leavers?
I live in hope?
Desp
I don’t believe there will be another referendum. Would either ‘side’ really want to risk the outcome? However if there is then it’s anyone’s call. Most of the general public are probably sick to death of all the political and legal malarkey they’ve been subjected to for the past 2 years; hence might well simply say; ‘Let’s get the hell out. We’re British. We’ll manage fine on our own’.
Also I entirely agree with you re. the neo-fascists. They’re extremely well-funded and better organised now than before. Seems like Farage has been sidelined with the big guns now in control. It’s become an international cause célèbre directed by the likes of Robert Mercer, Steve Bannon, Lynton Crosby, et al. who will already have their marketing campaign on red-alert and holding regular briefings with their puppet Westminster MPs.
In fact, having just written that, I’ve convinced myself that a 2nd referendum would be a more decisive win for the ‘Brexiteers’. Not looking good for logical reasoned debate. I think we’re slipping back into an Age of Darkness or at least increasing uncertainty. Gramsci’s now famous quote is ever more relevant.
A new age of darkness…
So horribly possible…
I dislike intensely the EU but voted remain. I feel the vote might be close because the EU has been so intransigent in negotiations it shows then in a very unfavourable light. In terms of information flow there are lies from both sides. Incidentally to universally infer that brexiters are fascist is unfair
I would like to see some of this frequently cited bullying by the EU.
Can we not see it because it does not exist?
What and where is the evidence?
All I have seen throughout is aa absolute shambles of a Tory government, totally unprepared and way, way out of it’s depth.
They give incompetence a bad name.
The EU aren’t being intransigent at all. They are protecting the best interests of their remaining members as should be expected.
Why should they do us any favours to the detriment of their members? It’s a ridiculous concept which seems to have eluded the hopeful (i.e. less cynical) Brexiteers who are apparently outraged by common sense!
The EU has to close ranks, as you must know, for a variety of political reasons.
Populists, with substantial financial and mediatic support, are gaining ground in Hungary, Poland, Italy, and have loud voices in every other EU country.
The fires are kept burning by Bannon & Co. who visits fascist and neo-Nazi groups regularly, and reports back on progress to his Masters. I wouldn’t presume to know who they are…
The break up of the Union is something the EU is trying to work against. Intransigence? Just survival instinct. Nothing lasts forever.
Whatever you may think of the institution, and I’m no unconditional fan, it has protected its populations against the mass destruction of lives we saw in the last century.
There had never been a time before when we saw a whole century without a war between nations in Western Europe, ever. It’s no coincidence.
To me, and many, that matters a lot. Environmental laws at EU level too. Workers’ rights too. And they’re far from perfect, but they exist. Work in (slow) progress.
The UK, by leaving, is opening a gate they want to then bolt up completely.
May and her team are totally incompetent, the EU leaders can see that. It’s so blatant. It makes their job more complicated, but it strengthens their unity.
Macron, in his “frank” outburst, was speaking indirectly to his own electorate, more than to the UK or EU voters.
EU elections next May must be prepared, and he wants no populist push in France.
Liars on the left and far-right exist there too, and bizarrely, both have been guests in Moscow. One even managed to get herself a substantial loan for her presidential campaign over a year ago from a friendly Russian bank.
Moscow seems a popular place with some.
Germany, the other “engine”, is also shaky, Merkel is weakening at a time when former East Germany is seeing its demons come back.
As for Italy, the third “Founding Father”, it’s already fallen to populism.
I live in a strong Remain area, and my bubble -we all have one don’t we- is very much on the left. But I observe, get out, mingle…many I hear say ” oh enough already, let’s just leave, be done with it, we’ll be fine”….
Head in sand, thinking suspended, let’s just do it.
So a second vote, I think, would only be won if Remain got all their disjointed protest groups together and their information campaign well financed and targeted.
The media will be the main problem as they are mostly owned by Leave bosses.
Touch and go I’d say. Difficult times ahead. Fight not over. And even after it’s over it won’t be over. In it for the long term.
Emigrate anyone? Outer Hebrides maybe?
There is an open goal here staring Corbyn and Labour in the face all they have to do is put the ball marked EFTA/EEA in the back of the net.
Why are you ruling out Hard Brexit under May or her successor?
I am not
But I think a second vote is likely
The analysis on the BBC website this week showed that leave and remain opinions are still very close in the advent of a second referendum, or even towards a second referendum being held.
Because I live in a leftish bubble I didn’t realise how close it was.
Then I did my own anecdotal listening, and it told me the same, and worse, some leavers attitudes have even hardened further to the JRB right ( older people certainly).
I certainly would not bank on a remain victory, we perhaps should be careful what we wish for.
A general election seems a better option to me, it would open up more possibilities.
Sorry to hear about your dad Richard, my condolences.
Paul
To lose one referendum is a misfortune, to lose two would be carelessness.
I like that last line
And thanks…
But one would hope that a remain campaign would, unlike the first one, be properly organised and much, much braver, willing to challenge the lies of the leavers.
I would hope so….
The last line is taken from “The Importance of being Earnest” (Oscar Wilde)
Oh! Richard What a load of drivel! Unusual for you and I nearly said load of excrement”! A re-run would deliver 60:40 For OUT – believe me that’s the level of feeling against this misguided unsustainable political experiment. Get outside of London and speak to British citizens!
Right now that is the drivel
And maybe you have not noticed I live outside London ina had leave area – and I talk to a lot of people because cussed as I might sometimes appear to be on here, I can be charming in real life
I do go ‘walkabouts’, quite a lot
If the Article 50 period can be delayed (by everyone agreeing to pretend it was invoked later than it was), why can’t we also have a brexit gap of a few months before normal service gets restored by pretending it never happened?
Our main problem is the unfounded credibility of the Hard Brexiteers who have no plan and no idea about the consequences or how it’s going to be managed. There is no way their position is going to survive contact with reality, and their attempts to blame anyone else is going to ring hollow given their continued assurances during the last couple of years.
Unlike the climate change denialists, who basically got their way and put us in a place from which there is no way out even if we did have a revolution and put them up against the wall, the Article 50 is a purely man-made phenomenon and could simply go away with a change of attitude and personnel.
We could indeed have such a gap
By agreement and with willingness anything is possible
That is what politics is all about
One ploy for the EU would be to agree Article 50 extension, but take a month to do it.
So, for a period from end of March to end of April 2019, there is hard crash out. With the cessation of flights, disruption to food and medical supplies, crash in sterling, and so on.
It’s a power play. And Britain is utterly humiliated. But it pricks the bubble of a neo-fascist victory in a summer 2019 brexit referendum re-run.
Posted this to Ivan Horrocks’ article on ProgressivePulse:
http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/hold-tight-hard-brexit-here-we-come-theres-no-doubt-about-that-now
As I understand it, The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 para 10/2/b makes it a condition of withdrawal that there will be no border in Ireland. A “no deal” withdrawal is therefore currently illegal. Not that I expect the Brexiteers to have noticed — or even care!
And I doubt that, in an approval referendum, having been consistently lied to by ‘Leave’ many will be inclined to vote for Leave.
I consider many more will vote for what they hadn’t taken on board (who doesn’t go on European holidays?) and endorse some more honesty – and remain!
“(who doesn’t go on European holidays?)”
Poor people. Anyone who survives on a zero-hours contract. I think you may be living in a bubble if you can’t imagine people not going abroad for a holiday.
What will dominate fear of poverty and for many fear of not being able to feed their children and keep a roof over their heads or fear of foreigners. I’d put my money on the first three.
The EU and the euro has massively improved living standards in certain countries (Germany) and slaughtered living standards for many in others (Greece, Spain, Italy)…please don’t portray it as economic utopia. Monetary union and pushing towards fiscal union is flawed from the start. The EU is intransigent because it is not moderating it’s stance with regard to this. Re the UK I am a marginal remainer, not because I believe in what the EU seek to achieve but just because of the short term cliff edge risk. A second vote would be very close even after what the British public have endured during negotiations. The EU as an entity is very unpopular even in the eyes of many remainers.
Please don’t confuse the EU and the Euro
I am not confusing the euro and the EU, both caused the problems in Southern Europe. The EU believes in monetary and fiscal union, it is at the heart of its agenda for Europe. It shows no understanding of the economic problems this creates. Thank god we kept our sovereign currency. Unfortunately, as hard as it is to swallow, Theresa May’s standing in the eyes of the electorate is actually improving such is the publics dislike of the EU.
I voted Remain last time but if there is another referendum, I will be voting Leave.
My reasons include:
– as a ground-floor Corbyn supporter, I realised it was the height of hypocrisy to complain about the Blairites trying to force another leadership vote because they didn’t like the result while I complained about the referendum vote because I didn’t like the result.
– It is obvious that 52/48 in favour of Remain would have been perfectly acceptable to the Remainers who are still insisting that is not a clear margin to leave, and all discussion would have been closed down for another 40 years. Again, the brazen hypocrisy is nauseating.
– the disgusting attitude exhibited by Remainers towards Leavers, labelling them all as stupid racists. This is the main factor which drove me towards the Leave camp. When will the Left learn that insulting and lecturing people who disagree with you doesn’t work?
– reading Yanis Varoufakis’ account of dealing with the Troika and the bullying, lies, deceit and cowardice that they engaged in. I really don’t know why he is still pro-EU – romantic optimism or hopeless naivety?
– actually reading the case for Lexit because God knows it was never publicised during the original campaign.
– discovering MMT and learning that the powers of a currency-issuing government means there really is nothing to fear from a loss of private business. Assuming there is a business out there that would actually choose to make less money (where else can they go to make up a loss of a marketplace of 60m+ people? I doubt they are suppressing sales elsewhere), as long as the government picks up the slack, somebody will eventually fill the gap because markets, like nature, abhor vacuums.
– anything that is supported by Tony Blair, Alistair Campbell and Chuka Umunna is a clear indication that you should support the opposite.
– it offends me as a democrat that Corbyn’s nationalisation/state aid plans would probably end up being ruled on by the ECJ if we did stay in and he was PM. If Parliament is truly sovereign, it should be able to pass any law it likes. That is the reason why British courts cannot strike laws down – because we have always believed only Parliament, with its accountability to the public, should make law.
– people who believe being in the EU ‘protects’ us from the Tories. Sorry, but if the Tories get voted in, that’s democracy. If they dismantle the things you care about, and then win a subsequent general election, that is also democracy (even though it sucks). Those people aren’t democrats, they want to be able to run to Nanny when the other children are being mean. How much more entitled can they get? Being in the EU has caused progressives to become lazy. If there are issues that are important to someone, they should be out campaigning for them and not relying on a bunch of bureaucratic obstacles to stop their opponents. I think it was Tony Benn who said something to the effect of ‘These battles are never won. They must be fought over and over again’.
Why not try arguing instead of stereotyping?
I’m sorry – but this comment left me stone cold – because I resent being labelled as being things I am emphatically not
It’s lazy
Oh dear.
I had a similar conversation to this with a student momentum activist, at the university welcome fair yesterday.
It’s utterly misguided. It will bring about the opposite result to what is expected. An comprehension of democratic process is absent — referendums are inherently undemocratic, and referendums based on falsehoods doubly so.
It’s a shame, because I’m barely millimetres from the momentum position politically. But the misguided infighting on the left threatens to fatally undermine the very people the left purports to protect.
Woah Simon, woah!
I’m currently reading John Bew’s book about Clement Attlee (‘Citizen Clem’, 2016) and Attlee felt that looking down at people who disagreed with you was to be avoided at all costs by the Left (whom he felt had a tendency to do this) so prima facie your mention of this issue has merit in the Leave versus Remain debate.
So, to be clear I am not looking down at you as I write: I am looking you in the eye.
Last night on Channel 4 News, one of the Leavers interviewed said that the EU was ‘costing us too much money’. He did not qualify this statement at all. He seemed unaware of the fact that goods came in and out of the country without tariffs (making it cheaper for working people – something Attlee and the Left agreed with) , or that EU Regional Development Grants were used for investment in the UK to improve infrastructure ( a way of getting that UK money back). Nor did he opine that the fictional £350 million per week that could be used for the NHS was a lie (which we all know now and is also based on the faulty assumption that all the UK’s cash that exists now is all that exists and cannot be added to and just moved around – an anti MMT stance by the way – even though you say you support MMT).
So what to make of that? Should we respect such an ‘opinion’ with its omissions? Or challenge it – given what is at stake? The latter of course. And that is the way it has to be.
And the same with you.
There is a lot of faulty thinking in your post. If the EU is so powerful, why was the UK allowed to keep the pound and not go into the Euro but remain a member? Why are there other deals with say, Norway? I’ll tell you why – because a State could make such desicions in the EU zone. The EU is not the rigid top down entity that it is often portrayed as. Members have opt out options on policy because it is not an institution as such but a treaty agreement OK? ‘Agreement’ – right?
Varoufakis – well, he wants to save capitalism from itself and even he knows as a decent economist (despite his travails with the EU over Greece) that a breakdown in any trade deal in a modern times after a huge crash in 2008 is going to have huge ramifications – especially for the poor and ordinary people – with whom Varoufakis has a lot empathy. Varoufakis is focused on reforming capitalism and turning it away from Neo-liberalism. And when that has been done, the EU (and especially the ECB) can be dealt with because the sovereign governments that make it up will be less Neo-liberal. Savvy? I contend that the problems we see in the EU are there because they exist in the member states themselves. Discuss.
52 vs 48 – Do you really expect us to believe that had the Remain vote won, that the Leave lot would have scampered away into quiet obscurity? Are you sure? I don’t think so. Given the revelations of their behaviour, I think the Leave campaign would have been vitriolic in their opposition about this – even louder (and nastier) than Remain are now. The Leave camp are a very well funded, opaque and unaccountable outfit. They also tell lies and are happy to share that fact with everyone. Shut down you say? Think again.
MMT – there is absolutely no way MMT could work in a post BREXIT world as effectively as in a NO BREXIT world. Current MMT theory is based on dealing with the issues we have now post 2008 – low public investment, lack of real money, wage atrophy, poor corporate taxation, too low taxation of the rich, environmental degradation, austerity etc. MMT is not a fix all – especially for the economic suicide that is BREXIT. All you are doing is asking MMT to do more (2008 + BREXIT) even before it has been born. Result? Sure fire failure of expectation. No one really knows what will happen but the short term shock to the economic system of BREXIT will cause problems. My concern is that printing money into the economy during BREXIT risks hyper inflation whilst pumping it in in a NO BREXIT situation might create more reasonable levels at worst and is preferred. BREXIT might stop MMT.
As for what might happen to say Corbyn if he was voted in and the ECJ as you say – all I can say is that it would be better to argue these positions as a member with rights (vetoes/votes) rather than as a non member with fewer or no rights. As Attlee said – government (democracy?) by discussion is the best way. Not Government by taking your ball home and not playing – which is a neat way of describing BREXIT.
But ultimately can you not see what you would actually be supporting with Leave? You would be ultimately supporting a cynical course of action that Theresa May only took to win a domestic election. And she did not pull it off. Why? Because the ‘country’ did not vote for it. Many are opposed to it. What about them? The British Government (and not the EU) are ignoring them by going ahead with BREXIT and by creating the conditions for a no deal. What sort of democracy is that?
So, you are right to have your opinion but now you know some of mine and also some facts that you and other advocates of BREXIT have failed to consider in your democratic duties as a citizen to other citizens now and in the future.
Calm yourself and think again.
Interesting thought on MMT
Reflecting on that….
Precisely, PSR. You’ve hit the nail on the head as regards the mistake any progressive is making in backing Brexit. It is, as I’ve said time and time again, a disaster driven by, and funded by, some very extreme, dishonest, cynical and downright nasty right wingers.
Think again Simon.
Very well summarised – thank you PSR
A piece to re-read and re-call when debating with Lexiters
Sadly this thing (Brexit) will never go away, what would happen if there was a close remain vote? Cameron (who?) has totally divided the nation and for a very, very long time. We, the UK, were never true “Europeans”, our imperialist past has brainwashed too many, especially of the older generation who still believe that we are a great power.
As one of the older generation I despair. I see no way out of this mess.
Even if we return to the days of being the “sick man of Europe” the hardened opinions of many would not change.
Whatever Richard, please keep up the good work. My condolences too.
Unfortunately, this is the scenario the hard right has created, not only here but in other countries (notably the USA) as well.
“They know no lies are off limits now. They know no funding limit breaches will be punished. And they know Remain will play be the rules that they will completely ignore. And who will win?”
They will try this tactic because it has already worked. However, the hope lies in the fact that it worked only because voters got complacent or apathetic. If enough folks wake up in time, this won’t work again.
We are already seeing the chaos the mere spectre of Brexit is creating, never mind the fright about losing aspects of our lives that are important to us. For example, are Leave voters who are dependent on insulin going to want to risk their supply being even temporarily cut off? This isn’t what Brexiters thought of, when they voted last time, is it?
Fingers crossed.
This is a salient point.
Last night on Channel 4 News, the message from Remain and Leavers interviewed was ‘just get on with it’.
The former (like me) just want to know where they stand; the latter want what they want.
This is also why I have advocated letting BREXIT happen because I’m hoping that it is the only way any post BREXIT epiphany will come about. That in itself might lead to a Tory defeat in the next election and re-entry into the EU or at least a better deal than no deal.
But this is a high stakes game. With people like Liam Fox making overtures to the US who will use BREXIT as an opportunity to expand their economy I am very worried indeed. I’ve heard that UK farmers think we have enough grain to feed us until August. After that I wonder how much GM Monsanto will dump on our little island through the corporate licking US Government.
Don’t be surprised to see a Marshall Plan for the UK from the US emerge – the London airlift to relieve the UK of it post-BREXIT woes created by the nasty EU. You think I’m joking? I hope to God you are right.
Lets put it this way: if France or Germany offered a safe haven to any Brit Remainers I would get my family out of here as quickly as possible. The UK is going to be scary place come what may, with ordinary people facing what might be severe hardship.
BTW – it was interesting seeing how much May was marginalised in Salzburg. Some of us will see this as a deserved snub. But do not under estimate how much the EU haters/US lovers will portray this as a deliberate effort to make us look stupid and how this will be used to wind people up in order for us to turn our backs on Europe.
Your correspondents all seem to be arguing the toss from an English/Britain point of view. Meanwhile The Scottish Lion is sitting in the long grass where it has been put quite crudely by Westminster in this whole Brexit mischief. Having voted in every constituency to remain, and voting 62% to stay with our friends in Europe with whom we have had for the first time in centuries of war, peace at last for our children, we in Scotland most assuredly will have nothing to do with this wanton destructiveness. For what possible reason would the Scottish Government want to vote again on this issue?
Listen Gordon – if you were in our situation (that is ‘the English & Welsh situation that is BREXIT’) you’d be arguing the toss too.
I’m pleased that Scotland has its own stance on this issue but if I were you I’d keep an eye on the extremists/dreamers in the SNP who might get carried away and get you a bad deal with the UK if you depart from the Union.
Make sure that you don’t get ripped off because remember this: you’ll be basically dealing with the same English bastards who are pushing/preparing for BREXIT.
After BREXIT, the new methodology is ABC:
Assume nothing
Believe nothing
Check everything.
Pilgrim
You are right to be worried
But Scotland has produced more savvy politicians than the rUK by far
Richard
Gordon
From Prof Brendan O’Leary http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/northern-irish-futures-pt-2-possible-futures
“The United Kingdom is a multi-national state, a partnership of peoples, a country of countries, a nation of nations. It is neither an English nation-state nor a British nation-state. It is a union-state, not a unitary state. English politicians in particular have frequently told the Scottish and the Northern Irish as much, especially after they have been reminded that the UK is not a synonym for Britain. Yet political steps currently being considered – and demanded – may well destroy forever the merits of defining the UK as a multi-national union-state. If these steps are completed, they will emphatically confirm the claims of those who have maintained that the UK is mere camouflage for what has always really been Greater England (or Greater England & Wales)”.
Agreed
A helpful development is today’s judgement in the Court of Session which has upheld the appeal in the Unilateral Withdrawal of Article 50 case. The ECJ has now been asked for it’s decision on whether this is permissible under EU law. If it is found to be permissible then that changes the Westminster options in the event of MPs not backing any deal that May delivers.
Maybe if the millions of British ex-pats who live in the rest of the EU (to say nothing of the large numbers of EU citizens who live more or less permanently in the UK) were allowed to vote, the result of a second referendum might, notwithstanding those who are so sick of this incompetent government’s machinations on Brexit they might vote leave whatever, look somewhat different.
Richard
On Scottish politicians I am prepared to take your word for it.
I envy them. Do you think we could borrow some?
And could they take Gove and Fox back at the same time?!