We now supposedly know where we are going with the EU.
No single market.
No customs union, even if no one has quite had the courage to say so explicitly.
Control on migration from the EU.
Rejection of the European Court of Justice.
But also, apparently, no tariffs on trade with Europe despite all that.
And the brightest and best will move freely.
Whilst the City may remain in the single market despite its rejection for all other purposes.
And woe betide them if they dare to differ.
Given the broad sweep of yesterday that may be a fair summary, although I know some will disagree.
But even now it's not the detail that matters. What matters is the naïveté of it all. This reads like the Christmas list of the seven year old living in a high rise flat in the centre of an urban area miles from a field with parents who are struggling to make ends meet who asks for a pony for Christmas. They get a hamster instead. Or a 'My Little Pony'.
Except in this case it will be a 'My Little Brexit'. That's the one where the EU have some say on the outcome. And we will have tariffs. There will be restrictions on the right of UK citizens to travel. There will be the end of powerful partnerships, such as the Erasmus student scheme, arrangements on crime and shared regulation of many industries, where the cost of the UK going alone will be considerable. And there will be a threat to real people who have thought they can live in their chosen home and will now find they can't.
Within weeks we'll find that yesterday's 'refreshingly optimistic tone', as the FT puts it, is no more than bravado that utterly ignores reality. The reality is that the EU is going to impose a price for the UK leaving. It has to. Otherwise there is no point in anyone staying. And in that case May is not going to get what she wants, however much she might scream or shout. .
And then the UK will realise just how small it is, whether the City is taken into account or not. That 'My Little Brexit' may be the pocket sized version, if we're lucky.
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To use your cards analogy from yesterday. We haver a two and a three against a royal flush. I don’t think we’re in a position to make threats.
I agree
The Tory Negotiating Position, courtesy of Mel Brooks, and with all apologies to the politically sensitive…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I
Spoiler: he gets away with it.
Classic
I agree. This is not only a total catastrophe but also a total denial of this Govts DUTY to safeguard its citizens. Listening to an EU negotiator on R4 last night, he painted the picture clearly: wwe have a trade deficit and are borrowing too much. To remove ourselves from our nearest and best marketplace os like sawing off our own head & then claiming we are better of without it. I do not remember, in Cameron’s little appeasement Referendum, voting for this. My daughter is already talking about moving abroad, taking my wonderful grandchildren with her! Why is May doing this? My theory is: the tories now have a ‘get out of bame free’ card: they have always wanted to detach the state from the Govt: NHS, education, social care etc. Now, they will proceed to wreck the infrastructure that holds society together, and say: YOU voted to leave the EU, we have to do this to survive ‘as a country’. Cannot begin to describe my derspair! The ONLY person routing for us is Guy Veerhofstaten, the EU negotiator. How ironic is that?
It’s a coup
I suspect that there will be a lot of conversations along the lines of
‘Mum, we’re emigrating to Australia’
‘Why’?
‘Because I don’t want our kids to grow up in the sort of country Britain has become.’
‘But you can’t do this to me.’
‘Well, why did you vote to leave?’
Also, how many EU citizens married to Britons might decide to return to their country of origin. Even if they can get British citizenship, they, too, might decide they don’t want to stay here. My sister-in-law is Austrian and my brother speaks very little German. Whilst I cannot imagine that she would move back, there might be plenty of British men faced with the choice of moving to another country which may be totally alien to them or losing their spouse and seriously harming their relationship with their children.
And that is tragic
And true
I had such a discussion with a German yesterday
And that is tragic
And true
I had such a discussion with a German yesterday
Well my wife and I have had these conversations with our children and we are encouraging/supporting them in their desire to have good lives, which involves emigration. It is a tragedy that so many of our young people will leave, or not return to, this country because of Brexit. We could become like post-war Ireland, when the young and brightest left in droves.
Our son left university in 2011 with a BSc and MSc, but after a number of abortive starts, he went to Australia/New Zealand, planning to stay 2 years, but he found employers happy to invest in him, so he stayed. He intended come back in 2015, but we persuaded him to stay until he gained a Permanent Residency visa as a fall-back. He returns this year, but I expect the economy to tank – at least he will have an escape route.
My daughter has a well-paid City job in IT, well qualified and experienced, she is emigrating to Canada, having her English Language test today. She was an Erasmus student, fluent in French and Spanish and doesn’t want to be marooned in the UK.
My wife and I want our children near us, but much more, we want them to be happy and successful in their lives. Too many risks in the UK.
As a dad that pains me
May’s sabre rattling is either very naive or is just playing to the braying of the Leave campaign
Shades of Violet Elizabeth Bott.
I think she is on another planet.
Indeed. Straight from the deluded “swivel eyed loon” playbook of the extreme Brexiteers. You can promise everyone golden unicorns. It’s not going to end well.
The right wing press is predictably lapping it up. I will give my perspective on NI.
I worry about Northern Ireland. One positive as aspect of the speech was a desire for continued free movement between Ireland and Britain. I understand that considerable work has already gone into this by the Irish government who are way more advanced than their UK counterparts on this issue in terms of EU law. Even so it may be a difficult issue to square. Also notwithstanding the desire to keep an open border between NI and the Republic it will be the only land border with the EU. The NI economy is also more dependent on the EU than any other part of the UK.
It’s slightly ironic that the Republic seems far more concerned about Northern Ireland than the UK. Then again the Irish have a far more sophisticated vied of nationalism and sovereignty than the English. It was not always the case and has come about through the reality of the past 100 years.
Keith wondered the other day if Northern Ireland was really a country, As Seamus Heaney put it (and I’m paraphrasing) Norther Ireland is the bastard offspring of the female country Ireland being invaded and raped by the male country England. Certainly the behaviour of the DUP recently reinforces this view the “Don’t Understand Politics” handle given to them in the interesting Irish Times Fintan O’Toole article http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-dup-must-be-punished-for-its-brexit-folly-1.2938690 is telling.
In the long term it may be good for England to have a major defeat. God Knows that the Irish and Scots have had far more than their fair share. I’m not referring to the millions of decent and wonderful English, rather the arrogant Daily Mail reading Little Englanders, whose feeling of superiority seems to be inversely correlated with their education, intelligence and understanding of the world.
I live in an area full of those little Englanders who fulminate against the arrogance of the Scots, Irish and Welsh and how dare they want a say?
The belong in the DUP, as Fintan described it
Unfortunately Sean I think you are right to worried about Northern Ireland. The peace agreement came at the high point of a liberal era which looks likely to be coming to an end. Nationalism is clearly on the rise and you don’t need me to tell what form that can take in Northern Ireland (counting Unionism as a form of nationalism).
I am fairly sure that May is genuine about wanting to keep free movement in Ireland just as she is about keeping Scotland in the Union. The question is whether she can pull it off.
At the end of the day she is the Leader of the Conservative party and just like David Cameron she has to respond to the strong pressure within the forces of Conservatism from the right.
This pressure would be easier to deal if the opposition in Britain was more effective or if the EU was stronger and therefore more help to make a generous response and ignore the Boris Johnston style insults.
At the moment the only hope I have is the courage and clear sightedness of enough of our MPs ??????? May has to get them to repeal the European Communities Act or risk an election. They must dig their heels in and insist that the Government seriously try to keep the referendum promises. If they fail Parliament must be able to refer the matter back to the public.
But Labour is acting like May’s pussy cat
BTW
The way this BREXIT thing is emerging is in itself indicative as to why the whole thing was pointless in the first place.
The Leave campaign (who just want to sell us to the Americans in my view) want to be Alexandrian and cut ties like the great man cut the Gordian knot.
However, the knot we are tied to in Europe is not just concerning one state but many. This makes things more complicated and as we know neo-libs tend to over simplify everything and it is ordinary people who suffer – including the average Leave voter.
The problem is in this post-reason world, rationality cannot win. It is rational that the EU makes leaving difficult in order to encourage commitment to it – as you say. But this will just be portrayed as typical EU intransigence by the Tories and the MSM and then consent will be manufactured for a much harder BREXIT.
We all know the possible long term cost of Europe not working together – the history of the region is there for all to see. And now even Trump is moaning about Germany. Why?
What I was puzzled by last night was how an earth can you say that you are not part of the EU or a single market when you still want to trade with it and get all the benefits ? Never mind ‘my little pony’ – the phrase ‘complete bollocks’ comes to mind instead.
As a result, what will BREXIT look like? How about SNAFU or FUBAR or even a ‘clusterf**k’. All these are very appropriate.
And what makes me really angry is that we needn’t have done this at all. We had enough to deal with, with the economy being in tatters since 2008 caused by a private financial behaviour.
So the Leave campaign has concocted (and still uses) the excuse that Europe is what caused 2008 when in fact the EU zone has been a victim of what after all is lax regulation by the USA Government of its financial sector. We know this because the USA conceived 2008 financial crash even caused problems for China and other emerging nations that Europe has much looser ties with. But this seems to be ignored.
The liars are winning I’m afraid.
You are right
@PSR, What you say is depressing but true.
Sorry…………………
One of the news programmes showed a foreign journalist scribbling on his notepad “Daily Mail fodder”
Oh yes
Both Houses of Parliament get a vote on the deal but we will leave the EU anyway. Huh?
Anyway if the deal is punitive (which everyone not in La-La Land agrees it must be) surely some of the negative impacts will have become manifest by the time of the vote and public opinion will probably have swung the short distance it needs to in the other direction and be against Brexit. The Tory and Labour MPs will be viciously whipped to support the will of the people and vote the deal through although by then the will of the people will be precisely the opposite. Brilliant! I agree with Tim Farron the only right way to do this is to give the British people a referendum on the deal itself. I would bet my house on it being pro-EU.
By then it would be
I don’t see how the term “punishment” can be applies at all. It is infantile.
What I hear is reiteration of the blind presumption on the part of the right that their particular conception of what matters is universally agreed. Thus the focus on “they need us more than we need them” and the assertion that EU will give them what they want because it will save jobs.
Even if they were right about the economic effects (which I don’t think they are), not everyone puts economics at the centre of everything, and certainly not everyone believes it should be there alone.
There is an element in all large debates recently which I think is on the increase. I hear that “the SNP don’t want independence”: and “the EU do not *really* think freedom of movement is a fundamental principle” as two examples. In other words, everyone thinks just as I do and when they say otherwise there is no need to listen.
It is perhaps the measure of the neolib bubble that they think this is rational and likely to result in agreement.
How many times have I heard this “the EU needs us more than we need it type rubbish”? Only a completely irrational belief in some imagined British superiority over other countries explains this nonsense. A “fog in the channel, Europe cut off” kind of belief.
To be fair, the further you travel in the UK away from London, the less this attitude prevails. North to Scotland and North West to NI, and this kind of English arrogance is rather less prevalent.
As you say, in the UK nobody has said clearly yet that we want to leave the customs union. However, the message has been clear abroad. In the German news yesterday, “Leaving the customs union” was presented as May’s official intention, without qualifications.
And fairly so
It ha to be true
You mention the risk to Erasmus funding and this could cause a big problem for universities. University courses are now governed by consumer protection legislation, so that any change which might adversely impact students, such as tightening up assessment and award regulations, cannot be brought in for four years, because of contractual promises we have made to current students and future students through representations in the latest prospectus. One of the biggest selling points of a number of programmes is the ability to study abroad, and this may well be integral to the course in many cases. Universities will simply not be able to turn round and say that they cannot honour this. If I were an external examiner being asked to approve a change to a course to remove overseas study, I would refuse point blank. Of course, m’learned friends will argue that the contract has been frustrated, but universities will still have to face the anger of students, who have tools such as the NSS at their to get their revenge.
We now have a generation of students who have seen their older siblings get things which they are to be denied due to austerity and Brexit, and they are being asked to pay £9,000 pa for the privilege. At some point they will really kick up rough, and they will very likely have the support of parents and their lecturers.
This lecturer amongst them
Of course, Theresa May knows she cannot achieve all her demands as set out yesterday; Her speech simply sets out the UK’s opening position in the negotiations to come, Which in in and of itself is reasonable.
That said, given the weakness of the UK’s bargaining posture, she might as well have submitted a Christmas list. How does she imagine the UK will be able to leave the Customs Union, then begin trading non-EU products into the EU without swingeing tariff barriers? How will the UK export goods into a market overseen by the ECJ without submitting to it’s judgements?
My major concerns are her continued insistence upon control of immigration as the primary ‘red line’, rather than, say, the nation’s future prosperity, her refusal to safeguard the rights of EU citizens living here at present, and perhaps most worryingly, her distasteful willingness to cut our throats and the EU’s in a low-tax, low-regulation, race-to-the bottom ‘dutch auction’ if things don’t go her way.
Which they won’t.
Anti-depressants may also not be available on the NHS
It strikes me that in pandering to fear of immigration May(hem) is simply following in the footsteps of Cameron and (still) throwing bones to those in her party who might think of defecting to UKIP were she to take a more realistic approach to the world at large. This has nothing to do with national politics and everything to do with internal Tory party politics. She’s desperately trying to stop the party from splitting in two, or perhaps even three. I think when she realises her attempts are futile she’ll be sailing off into some gilded sunset (which we’ll pay for) a la Cameron, and pretty quickly too. I can quite see this country in economic chaos and, when both major parties split, without realistic rule in a few years. Civil wars, anyone?
I hope not
Bill, if this madness means the Conservatives finally split and lose power, at least something good may come out of it! Why are moderate (now old fashioned!?) Tories like Ken Clarke still wasting their time alongside the hard right that now seem to be in charge of the party?
I would think it’s because he understands the importance of preserving the ruling tribe. Divide and conquer is what the Tories use to keep all other factions warring against each other instead of uniting against the Tories which would wipe them out. It may well be May(hem) grasps this necessity very well too and that’s one reason she’s pushing for a fast Brexit, as I’ve said elsewhere, her the other need for speed being the possible outcome of the police investigations into the Tories’ behaviour during the 2015 elections, as if they’re found to have fiddled their win very large-scale social unrest could well be the consequence. May(hem)’s got dem ol’ hellhounds on her trail, no doubt of that 🙂
The German news channel ARD reported that the UK government has succumbed to the influence of the mean spirited, narrow minded nationalists, also that the 2 year timescale is impossible – it will take at least 5 years
Both undoubtedly true
The Tories are ‘supposed’ to be the austere, economically responsible party, which acts in favour of big business and our powerful economic interests. Now, all reading this know that be a load of nonsense, but the point I am trying to make is this, how far can they get away with screwing up the economy before they get called out on it by big business? Or does that not matter any more? Is it just Labour that is hamstrung by that constraint?
Labour has delivered on Thatcher’s claim
There Is No Alternative
I have the same question. Everyone I know with a serious business background (my own originally) thinks Brexit is nuts and is going to be very bad for the UK, pretty much regardless of their politics. There are a few exceptions but they tend to be latent Kippers. This even includes the bankers – maybe not the hedgies who just want instability. As a rule, the business world tends not to get vocally involved in politics with a few exceptions like Banks and Bamford on the far right, or the Bransons, and Sorrells. They do of course quite often give to the Tories, though thats more often the privately owned businesses
I cannot think of another action by government that has caused as much grief, inconvenience and instability as Brexit will. Yes the big UK-based global players are less affected and even benefit from the fall in the pound but even they will not like the wider political instability and economic turbulence that this will and is already causing. Yes some of the most dubious ones will like the junking of regulations on environment, employment and the rest. Most that I know understand that trade regulations are about creating a level playing field that everyone understands, standardising products and services across countries and markets and making it far easier and simpler to trade.
It surprises and frustrates me that much debate focuses on tariffs and completely fails to explain how shared rules and regulations enable rather than inhibit trade. Its as though football or cricket would work much better if there were no rules and anyone could play anyway they wanted. Most people have forgotten or have no experience of trying to move goods across borders when you have to go through the full range of customs and regulatory hoops. Ive done it…
So why does nobody seem to be trying to engage with the business world? OK, Corbyn and co would still like to see the end of capitalism so thats an unlikely move. But maybe the LibDems, the non-UKIP Tories or even the Greens. If I was in a ‘broad alliance’, thats who Id be trying to engage, as the group with most potential influence on this government
Id be interested to hear the thoughts of others with direct business experience or networks? Am I alone in thinking this? Apart from Benz0 that is
I have still spent the greater part of my career in business
I agree with you
Business should be saying more
This is fantasy stuff.
Apparently we don’t want to be in the EU customs union (like, say, Turkey or indeed the Channel Islands are) but nonetheless we will trade with the EU without tariffs or administrative obstacles. The sort of agreement that results in that sort of arrangement is a customs union.
And that is without thinking about services – financial, legal, accounting, etc. – which of course the EU will allow us to sell into the EU without impediment without needing to comply with EU regulations.
Also we won’t have free movement of workers, but we won’t impede movement of workers.
Let us remind ourselves that
* 44% of the UK’s exports of goods and services (£220 billion out of £510 billion in 2015) are sold to the EU
* other EU member states sell about £290 billion back – so in absolute numbers, we run a trade deficit with the EU, and they are worth more to them then they are to us
* but EU exports to the UK only amounts to around 10 or 20 per cent of EU exports – so we are a much smaller proportion of their exports than they are of ours; as a proportion of exports, we are much less important to them than they are to us.
They are not going to cut off their noses to spite their face, but sometimes radical surgery is required cut out a cancer to stop it spreading.
Precisely Andrew; up till now the other EU countries have gone out of their way to accommodate British demands in many areas; not because, as the Leave liars/morons say because ‘they need our money, whine, whine’, but because they believed in the European ideal.
Not any more; especially if the UK’s vote to leave the EU really does plunge the EU into crisis, they’ll be even more determined to cut out the cancer, and even less inclined to agree to any of the UK’s ‘demands’.
The Channel Islands declined to join the customs union, actually. And it is a considerable inconvenience for ordinary people from day to day. Especially in the modern era of internet shopping, that keeps getting impounded and delayed. When Dover and Harwich become large scale St Heliers, the Brexiters will see the error of their ways, but too late.
I think it is in the Customs Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Customs_Union
I have more on this in the morning
http://www.channelislands.eu/eu-and-the-channel-islands/
“the Islands are part of the Customs Union and are essentially within the Single Market for the purposes of trade in goods, but are third countries (ie outside the EU) in all other respects … the Channel Islands apply the Common External Tariff (CET) to imports of goods from third countries. The Channel Islands are not within the EU common system of VAT”
Or is that not what Protocol 3 of the UK’s 1972 Accession Treaty says?
It does say that
More in an hour
Where does one even begin with this Brexit nonsense? I don’t know which of you above has best summed up this situation, but maybe Sean has it best noting how arrogant, deluded, and ignorant some English people are. It’s this attitude you see displayed in this absurd belief that we will completely leave the EU (after having endlessly moaned about it for years) but still be able to get a good deal with it.
Why is the EU going to do that, after the way we’ve behaved? We had a bloody good arrangement already, having stamped our feet and got opt outs on Schengen, being in the euro, and a rebate of our payments. We paid for the benefits of club membership, and got a better deal than just anybody else. But no, due to dishonesty, stupidity, fanaticism and arrogance, the UK opts to leave.
That being the case the EU will not be disposed to give Britain a good arrangement.
Why should they? We’ve treated the EU with contempt, and there’s no way they can allow us to leave and yet retain any of the benefits of membership, so they won’t. I could go on, but of course, as PSR says, rational thinking isn’t what this is about. We think we can just shout loudly, wave the bloody union jack and bang the table and ‘Johnny Foreigner’ will do as he’s told.
And if he doesn’t, we’ll walk off …………that’ll show them! Except that crashing out of the single market will be an economic disaster.
the other thing that keeps striking me about all of this is that the Government keep making arguments about economic rationality. “They will give us a better deal as it is in their interests etc”. Why are they assuming rationality on those grounds when they themselves are acting totally irrationally?
Well exactly Benz0; where are the rational arguments against continued EU membership? Given the behaviour of the UK, it is in the EU’s interests NOT to give us much of a deal at all.
And the Government’s response to this? To walk away in a huff! But of course, all of May’s posturing is driven by anti EU politics, where there is precious little rationality.
Indeed. Apparently the EU will not risk jobs and so will give Ms May what she wants. But her government will risk jobs in doing this. I admit I am prepared to believe EU care about the people more than this tory govt: but the difference is not *that* great
I think the EU member states will risk jobs
OK, here’s my take on this sorry affair. The Tories are in charge and, despite, their current slim majority, can pretty much do as they want … for the time being. Like all political parties they pretend to listen to ‘the people’ but the bottom line is they have their own agenda. And it’s not rocket science to figure out what that might be, based on track record and the known interests of the senior players.
While hand-wringing is a natural reaction to bad news, it’s unproductive and should stop asap so that energy can be directed to positive future outcomes. What is needed is a realistic counter-offensive strategy. Right now that is especially problematic because of the Corbyn factor. Without going over all the old ground, the fact remains he and his cohorts are not going to win any valid counter-argument – not with the general public nor in Parliament.
However, time is on our side. May hasn’t yet hit the red button, any remotely reasonable deal (if there is one) will take at least 2 years to get off the ground legally and there are still 3 years until a GE.
So, it’s time to stop the analysis and move the dialogue forward to achieving a critical mass, a unification, of the social-democratic Left. This will necessitate compromise on all sides, because that’s the nature of realpolitik – as opposed to protest campaigns, however worthy they are. No compromise no win. When the enemy is at the castle gates you simply have to sit down and drink coffee with unlikely allies.
Forget May and her Neo-liberal cabal. The nature of the enemy is well understood and the weapons that are available to them. Having lost the battle, the focus must now be on winning the war. Maybe there is an inspirational analogy with 10 May 1940. Step one – a new leader (of a progressive coalition) is urgently required. Chamberlain – oops I mean Corbyn – is unacceptable, ineffecttive and has to go.
I know words are cheap but I hope this makes some sort of sense. I just wish I was a lot younger and able to enlist. It’s so damned frustrating, isn’t it?
Anyone can enlist
Having a leadership would help
And that is not me – I am utterly temprementally unsuited to the daily life of a politician
Caroline Lucas.
I’d willingly follow
But the appeal has to go beyond the Greens – whom she towers above
I agree John – I know we are all pretty angry, frustrated and depressed but what is needed now is coherent, noisy direct action from a broad front. I agree with you about the compromises needed and Id suggest that this perhaps ought to extend a bit beyond the ‘social democratic left’ – whatever that means. As I said in a comment on one of Richards other blogs, its a Jo Cox moment where the focus needs to be on what unites people looking forward rather than endless point scoring about what so and so said in 1982. The facts have changed and we may all need to change our minds a bit
I can see quite a range of individuals who could be powerful forces, from Labour, LibDem, Green and yes, Tory as well. How to get that mobilised and who might lead is tougher. But we should give credit where its due to for example an Anna Soubry who are prepared to challenge their own party on Brexit. Im not sure I see the same sort of initiative from Labour. But correct me if Im wrong
More Labour MPs have toi realise they’re toast as they are in 2020 for this to happen there
Some are not convinced as yet
Not to deny anything that has been said so far, but how about this as an alternative take.
What if the real impetus behind Brexit is the desire to feel that one has control, irrespective of the reality?
What if Leave voters really voted for a warm illusion of control, and for the right to fulminate against Europe, irrespective of the economic outcomes of their decisions?
What if what they really want is to reassert English arrogance and demands of an intransigent world – and then enjoy riding the high horse of intransigence? And then finesse, look past, ignore the actual economic outcomes for themselves and their kids, blaming it all on some scapegoat?
Look at it that way: the Government’s approach (not to mention the madness of the current debate) starts making a bit more sense.
If we put a high value on the illusion of control it does
But what then when the illusion is shattered, as it will be?
From another German publication – Der Spiegel- Headline – “May’s Brexit Speech reveals one thing above all – how blind to reality she is ” (my translation). This is how we are seen in the country which has just reported its third annual budget surplus !
Horribly Germanic journalism – it’s true
Interesting article [link below] suggesting that the desire to exit the EU is a peculiarly English problem and a hang over from the empire. I think it glosses over the large numbers of Irish and Scottish participants in the empire but there is truth in the idea that the outcome is a result of a crisis in English identity. Ireland and Scotland have their national parties. England is adrift and feels that it should be running the club and not just a member of it. This English exceptionalism certainly applies to much of the way the Brexit campaign was conducted and indeed the Prime Ministerial speech is littered with similarly delusional ideas, displaying a romanticism at least equal to that of Irish or Scottish nationalists.
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/the_problem_with_the_english_england_doesn_t_want_to_be_just_another_member_of_a_team_1_4851882?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons
Might we just pause a bit before jumping to national stereotypes that might be as unhelpful and destructive as those of the xenophobic Brexiteers we are trying to fight against. Being part Scots/part English/dab of Irish, brought up in Cumberland, living in the South-East.
Dismissing all the English rather ignores the fact that London, Bristol, Manchester and even Leeds did in fact vote remain, some very strongly. Last time I looked, they were in England… Similarly, conflating the large numbers of poor and middle income people who live in London with the obscenely wealthy bankers and oligarchs living in Kensington and Chelsea and dismissing them all as out of touch Londoners. Just do a bit of research on the numbers of poor in the London area compared to say the North East – if you added together London and the other major cities that voted for remain I suspect you’d have a very large proportion of the country’s poor and lower income population.
But they did not blame their problems on immigrants, EU and Johnny foreigner…. I’d suggest thats because they are absolutely not the bubbles they are accused of being. There is a lively mix and flow of people, both British and from elsewhere, whereas those areas that most enthusiastically voted for Brexit, such as Cumberland, the North East or Lincolnshire (each of which I have fair experience of) or East Anglia that Richard has referred to, could much more accurately be referred to as cut-off bubbles.
To solve the problems we face surely means we ought to have a better understanding of root causes. if we just resort to national stereotypes we are no better than the Brexiteers. It might be fun and I’ll admit to having indulged in it, being at heart a Gael, but it gets us nowhere
In the months after the referendum there were some excellent, rigorous analyses that challenged the standard stereo types of rich vs poor, urban vs rural, graduates vs less-educated and so on. Just from my own circle, I know those stereo types don’t work that well. A common conclusion was that more than anything else, this was about social conservatism. Attitudes to say capital punishment, LGBT issues and migrants were more reliable indicators. Older, rural, less educated are more likely to be at heart socially conservative and that was shaping their vote against what they saw as drivers of change they disliked. Madame May is playing the social conservative card as hard as she can, reflecting their papers of choice – the Mail or Express. or Telegraph if you have a bit more money
I suspect most people on these blogs will tend to the more socially liberal end of the spectrum. Thinking through how to address the concerns and instincts of the more socially conservative is a big challenge.
Though if all else fails I’ll be supporting their independence and looking for a Scottish passport…