Theresa May confirmed this weekend what I suggested recently, that hard Brexit is not a possibility but a decidedly odds on probability. To put it another way, she did not put Johnson, Davis and Fox in charge of Brexit for no reason: she put them in charge so that they would have their way.
I do despair.
I despair of the small mindedness of it.
I despair for those who feel worried for their security as a result of it.
I despair because of the isolation inherent in it.
I despair because no one has a clue what it means.
And I despair because I have little confidence in those who are negotiating (or not) for the UK.
In effect we're on our own now.
And overall that's not been proven to be a great place.
And yes I know we can have a more active industrial policy.
And short cut QE.
And maybe control some aspects of the free flow of capital.
But in the overall give and take I still think this is a fundamental error of judgement we'll regret one day. And I would love to be proved wrong.
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As the world gravitates towards creating trading blocks and customs unions it seems ludicrous to be trying to exist on our own.
Whilst we can keep pedaling the fantasy that we can create free trade agreements with countries around the world the reality is we’ll be negotiating with blocks that have significant combined power and resources.
However good a deal we manage to achieve with all these other countries we will never create as good trading conditions as we currently have with the EU.
You are obviously right
It could be worse. Bernard Jenkin’s article in the Observer demonstrates just how far the head banging fringe are prepared to go, but my reading of May’s speech seems to suggest that she has put her foot down hard on that.
I appreciate that ‘It could be worse’ isn’t very consoling, but it’s all I have to offer…
Take what comforts are available
It sounds like your preferred outcome from here on is the EEA Option, assuming that the referendum result is respected.
Don’t despair. The three Brexiteers are only now getting to grips with the requirements of the banking industry and the dependence of employers in general for a liberal immigration policy. They will find it easier to punt issues like Free Movement down the road and let it be a 2020 election issue if necessary.
Martin Wolf clearly reinforces the other ills in a number of recent articles in the FT. Wolf this weekend says the “Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit. Failings include low investment, inadequate basic education and the innumeracy of the elites.” [1] In my twenties I thought the future would be driven, by pragmatic evidence based policies deeply involving scientists, medics, sociologists and engineers. We have the best academics in the world according to the international league tables of universities but yet we can’t significantly build our infrastructure, to name two – our energy systems and railways. We are led by deeply political buffoons and an evidence avoidant Establishment.
I couldn’t agree more with Wolf’s contempt of the state of the nation. I have travelled frequently to Europe with work over that last 40 years and recent trips have reinforced my view the UK is being left behind, especially with our abysmally weak currency. Just one example – transport infrastructure, driving or taking trains in the UK is generally a thoroughly unpleasant experience of sweat and toil, in cattle class, and often a joy in France, Spain or Germany. On my last trip I learned to say in French and Spanish that “I am ashamed of the UK and its disparaging views on Europe and immigration”. I hid behind my translational, learnt by rote, that I am not ‘Anglais’ or ‘Ingles’.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/cd1c369c-84c7-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5
Our inability to exploit ability is the strangest thing about this country
And it is not because we do not like success: it is precisely because those who think themselves successful in the UK have no comprehension of ability
The “had enough of experts” phrase was taken out of context; Gove added ” .. who consistently get things wrong” (or words to that effect).
But I fear the speed with which the shorter version caught on, perhaps reflects an attitude too prevalent in the country. There is no everyday expression equivalent to “s/he’s too clever by half” in French or Spanish. “Intellectual” is almost an insult in UK, but a compliment in France.
Funny old world.
The American version of ‘too clever by half’ is ‘elitest’ . There is a chance they will elect an anti-elitest. What a prospect!
We are heading for the hardest of Brexits with dreadful consequences economically, politically, and then socially as the impact hits those who were led to believe it would be to their advantage. At the same time we have no effective opposition in Parliament, with a Labour Party led by someone who wants us to get out. So where is any opposition going to come from?
One group who have been almost unanimously against Brexit are the leaders of business and finance who are quite clear on what the negative impacts will be. Whilst they will all be planning how to mitigate the impact, I just wonder what influence they are having behind the scenes, given the Tory’s reliance on them for funding? Apparently not a lot at the moment, but how could that be changed…
For me May has emerged as a ‘deep’ BREXITER – a sleeper agent for the cause. She went missing in the debate and probably refused to be part of it. Maybe she’d be just as happy staying in. I have to say, looking at pictures of Liam Fox……….I mean the man looks like a wally – he is almost cartoonish. Is he really involved?
Dan Hannan is another matter however and I’d like him to explain why he felt he was paid and voted in just to read the Telegraph in EU meetings.
Consolation? Well, I think that we should get out asap. The Tories will win the 2020 election as they will be seen as the party that got us out and they will feed the BREXIT bloodlust.
For me the long game is when we negotiate to go back to the EU. That is the only consolation I can think of really. And I think that will happen.
And as for immigration I am appalled that here we are in an era of mass migration by people away from death, misery and poverty and no-one seesm to want to work together to stabilise these engines of migration – countries ran by governments that fail to provide for their people.
That alone is a global catastrophic failure. I am truly shocked by that.
Indeed PSR – and perhaps she is just as power hungry as any of the others. Reckoning that there are more votes in pandering to the Tory right, the Kippers and Brexit voting ex-Labour voters. The bulk of the Tory MPs will toe the line. The 3 Brexiteers, or Three Blind Mice as Nick Herbert has wonderfully christened them, now look like her preferred negotiators, reflecting her views
As shocking for me is the realisation that this country is not the tolerant open society that us more liberal, ex-hippies thought it had become. I think we are too kind when we say this is not about racism. The arguments about trade and jobs were made pretty clearly but Brexiters did not want to hear them. The arguments about immigrants were dishonest but they reflected what people wanted to hear. That all their problems, be it jobs, health, education, housing are the problem of foreigners, be they immigrants to this country or Brussels. Yes it is about dishonest politicians and the media, but they were feeding messages that a large proportion of the public wanted to hear. Call them xenophobic if you like rather than racist, but the outbreak of hate crime licensed by the Brexit vote is pretty clear evidence of what was just under the surface and has now broken through
If I go back to Cumbria where I was brought up or to Lincolnshire, the casual language around ‘others’ is revealing. Expressions are used which which just not be acceptable elsewhere. If you live and work in London or the more cosmopolitan areas of the SouthEast it is easy to be unaware of how little other areas have moved forward, and how much prejudice remains
Daniel Kahnemann captures it when he points out how people too often make instinctive decisions based on superficial thinking and innate prejudices. Reflective thought, taking on board new data happens much less often. What we’ve seen is a glimpse into some deep-rooted prejudices that may need to be addressed if we are to move on. We also need politicians are are prepared to stand up to those prejudices and confront them. They are few in number at present
One thing to consider – what does “deep Brexit” mean for those Brits living in EU countries. Who had assumed that they would stay in those countries? Who may (possibly) be forced to return home? It is unlikely that they would do so with a spring in their step – more likely with thunder in their hearts. I believe the figure is 2 million. That is a lot of very unhappy people. I predict civil unrest if/when they get back to the UK.
May says she will protect them
We have no idea how
Theresa May is a shrewd lady. I wouldn’t say that she put the three Brexiteers in charge so that they could have their way. It is entirely political calculation. She did not campaign for Leave, but there is one undeniable fact she has to square, and that is the referendum result. Britain voted to leave the EU, and as she has repeatedly said, Brexit means Brexit. Now we will find out what that means.
While I am not happy with the outcome, we cannot go back. We must go forwards, and for that we need hope. Hope is the opposite of despair. While there are undeniable challenges ahead, with ingenuity and perseverance Britain will be able to make its way in the world. The loss of our EU membership might make us a poorer, less weighty nation, but given our history of meddling in the world’s affairs, that may be a good thing. We will learn our place, and come to value our true friends. It may be a bitter medicine the Conservatives are giving us to swallow, but in the long run it will be for our benefit.
The irony is that we should not have needed this medicine at all. I am dismayed at the lack of constructive debate on how to make Europe a truly better place, with a focus on peace and human dignity. The half-hearted response to the refugee crisis is a symptom of a civilisation in decline, with a lock down mentality and a refusal to acknowledge the scale of the problem. Europe needs a vision to unite behind, but the fear and insecurity peddled by the media is undermining the efforts of those who believe we can forge relationships and together, be stronger.
Jeremy Corbyn does not have the answers, because his vision of a socialist union is not broad enough. The vision needs to encompass different political views so that, no matter what party represents us, there is a force that unites us in the common good. But Corbyn does acknowledge the existence of a vision, and I think his tributes to Jo Cox are a testament to that. We must not expect the vision to come from above. It comes from within, from the hearts and aspirations of ordinary people who are not concerned about the political fortunes of the elite, but their own daily lives.
Whether Theresa May made an error of judgement depends on whose perspective one is looking at. For those who sincerely believe we would be better to remain in the EU, it is obviously an error. For those who sincerely wanted to get out, it is just as obviously not. For the government, it all depends on how the electorate will judge their actions at the next general election. Time will tell. Personally, I would not call May’s judgement into question at this time, because it is a tricky situation, she has to make some sort of decision, and the consequences are not as serious as such as entering the Iraq war. But I would carefully scrutinise the actions of those put in charge of managing the exit, so that for every error of judgement they make we can hold them to account. Then we will know whether the three Brexiteers deserve their title, or if they should in fact be called the three blind mice.
Or as Anna Soubry termed them, Foggy, Compo and Cleggy. Seems to take Tory MPs to provide serious challenge and criticism of Brexit