I would like it if all elections were about the delivery of hope based on a belief that politicians have the capacity to deliver a better life for the electorate to which they appeal for support. That is, I think, a realistic hope in that I think it could be achieved. My emphasis is, however, on the word could. The reality is that British politics is not in that place right now.
British politicians, and most especially those from the largest two parties, are in a state of denial about what they can deliver for the UK. That is partly because they insist they can deliver majority government when it seems both are likely to about 50 seats short of that possibility, which at this stage of the campaign seems a pretty insurmountable hurdle given how little change in forecast outcomes there has been over the last few weeks.
Second this is because neither party seems intent on coming close to telling the truth about its intentions, or the issues that its own internal politics will present to the UK if it tries to form a government after May 7. The minority parties also face their own issues for not dissimilar reasons, but I think it worth reflecting on the major parties first, and then the minority parties before reflecting on what all this might mean for those, like me, who wish to see change with a marked bias towards those least well off in the next parliament. The object is to anticipate the campaigns to come.
First, it's worth noting the current forecast polling outcomes. The Guardian summary, which appears reasonable to everyone but the spread betting market (which is much more Tory biased) is as follows at present:
Conservative 271
Labour 271
SNP 55
LibDem 28
UKIP 3
Green 1
Others 21
Let's ignore the maths of potential combinations at present. The two major parties are equally placed. Assuming this gives the Conservatives first chance to form a government, since they are the incumbents and are not required to resign, and assuming that they could make the maths of coalition building work (stick with me on this one) what are the issues of concern with a Conservative government?
The first is its bias. The direction in which the bias will be exercised is apparent. A range of policies make it very clear that the Conservatives have a bias to those with wealth that appears to prejudice those least well off. Selling shares in Lloyds Bank to those why by definition already have wealth; increasing inheritance tax allowances; increasing income tax personal allowances which benefits those on higher incomes much more than it does those who might be taken out of tax; cutting higher rates of tax and so much more makes it quite clear where Tory sympathy lies. So too do £12 billion of benefits cuts.
All of this deeply worries me. The divisions that could be created within the country as a result of such policies could be very deep, and very real. You cannot run a policy of austerity at expense to those already with least in society without making them deeply hostile to authority. That risk of fragmentation speaks of contempt by politicians, a lack of belief in the equality of all, and a willingness to abuse some. That is a direction of travel for politics in this country that is going to cause social and economic harm. Unsurprisingly I have problems with that.
The second issue of importance is economic competence. In 2010 George Osborne did, as a matter of fact, inherit an economy in recovery. He, however, believed that the UK was akin to Greece when there were very obvious reasons why that was an utterly implausible comparison (starting with debt ratios, tax gaps and the fact that we had our own currency and a willing market for our debt). As a result he tried to impose austerity on the UK and did so until the disastrous (for him) budget of March 2012. The result was the slowest recovery from any recession in the history of the UK, a failure to cut the deficit, and living standards that have still not recovered, for most, to pre-recession levels. This is a record of economic mismanagement. Even the high spots, such as rising employment, are weak. These are low paid, low productivity jobs that offer little prospect of helping relieve poverty or of helping restore government funding. And since he is now offering more of the same the prospect of a Conservative government is deeply worrying for our economic well-being. The claim that we should trust the Conservative economic record is absurd: to be kind, it is very poor
Third there is the impact of unnecessary cuts. Those at HMRC will reduce vital tax yield. Those for the NHS (and the £8 billion offer of funding is about as reliable as the promise of no top-down reorganisation last time) will harm all our futures. On education there is again bias at play, in favour of free schools. And for the judicial system cuts threaten law and order and the sustainability of society. Elsewhere, they have the same dire impact, not least for those who have to rely on benefits.
Last, (and I restricting myself to four big themes), there is the state of the UK debate. The Conservative attitude towards Scotland shows that this is no unionist party, or democratic one either. How it can be argued that the Scots must stay in the union but be disenfranchised is beyond me. I am unsurprised by the Scots current stance as a result.
But, as worrying is the approach to the EU. A referendum will divide this country just as surely as the Scottish question. And whatever happens I think it will split the Conservative Party. There are already many within its ranks who hate David Cameron and that can only get worse with the opening of a referendum campaign. Much as I have disquiet about the EU I would not leave it. I believe it is open to reform, but not of the sort David Cameron wants. The harm to the British economy of leaving would be considerable. I fear the poorest would pay most, again. I am bemused that more businesses are not saying so. And bluntly I cannot see a united Conservative Party after this fight: whatever the outcome if there were to be such a poll I think the party would split.
In that case, and because of the impact of such a referendum on Scotland I cannot see the Conservative Party or the United Kingdom surviving a Conservative government.
But it we were to have such a thing the task tax justice campaigners would face would be significant. We would have to:
a) Argue to keep HMRC intact;
b) Argue against cuts, which are the flip side of reduced taxation;
c) Argue for progressive taxation;
d) Argue for measures to reduce rather than increase inequality;
e) Argue for the role the EU might play in reducing tax competition that threatens us all and is a challenge to democracy.
That list does, of course, hide a great deal of detail.
The point is that the challenges would be significant, and the outlook depressing as turmoil, whether economic, social or political, would embrace the country.
I think I am right to be worried. And to prepare for the possibility of disruption to society, because nothing is fixed in this election as yet.
NB: A post on my fears about Labour and other parties will follow
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Financial Times (17/05/2015) estimates possible coalitions, based on current data. http://on.ft.com/1JPGHz2
Both Labour and Cons have 0.2 – 0.3% chance of a majority.
Greens have a 21% chance of being in a Coalition. 🙂
Labour led coalition : Con led coalition currently is estimated (FT.COM) as 83:17
Seems about fair
There seems to me to be two elephants in the room in this election.
One is the complete failure of the western neoliberal project which the politicians still fail to admit.
And the second is the rise of Corporate Power.
The Corporations & the Tories have used several devious legal loopholes to gain authority over the Western Nations sovereign states.
Manipulating HMRC, The Treasury, Stock Markets & the Bank of England for the benefit of the rich & the Corporations.
The fact that all these people have not been labelled as a Criminal Cartel is because they have complete control of the western media.
In February 2015 they passed the Infrastructure Act legalising the transfer of all public owned sovereign assets to central government for Privatisation by the City of London Bankers. Planning laws have been obliterated. UK Petroleum has been set up for Fracking, the Privatisation of the whole UK road network is just waiting for the election to be over as is the NHS.
We are faced with London Media + London Politicians + London Bankers = THE CORPORATE STATE.
We are also faced with the USA Corporations taking over Europe now that Merkel has backed down on TTIP & the USA this week landing troops in Ukraine for a war with Russia which Cameron supports.
How the london Media & Politicians can lie their way through this is quite astounding.
That’s the way of neoliberalism
Watching the recent leadership debates has left me a bit suspicious about the sincerity of the nationalist and Green Party leaders when it comes to their arguments about tax raising initiatives.The question is how do they believe they can raise the necessary billions in tax to create a more equal society without the required number of HMRC staff to enforce it. I don’t know how many HMRC offices are still open, I imagine its round the 200 mark but staff numbers are still going down, I think the current figure is now around 60,000. The Labour Party and the Coalition government enforced the HMRC cuts so I expect them to stay silent on the issue but I’m surprised the Greens and the Nationalist leaders do not put forward the simple argument that by re-opening all the HMRC offices closed over the last 10 years, and recruiting more HMRC staff, they will be able to collect some of the estimated £120 billion in taxes due that goes missing every year. Natalie Bennett visited our HMRC PCS picket line so she can’t claim ignorance of the issue. Also Richard, what’s your opinion on the 2 million jobs the Coalition government argue they have created, as I’m extremely dubious of the figure. My belief is that the Coalition partners have asked their backers in the business community to compile a list of ficticious zero hour contracts,which they can then use as a propoganda tool in their election campaign.They government has not been challenged on the 2 million figure and has yet to detail where all these jobs have been created.
The Greens have explicitly done this
I hope the SNP do so too
Plaid certainly know the issue
Yes you are right to be anxious for the reasons given. The 2012 looting/riots shows how unrest can spread like wildfire. The sheer arrogance of our rulers who believe in the mantra of “scroungers” v “hard working families” all in the name of the illusion of “reducing the deficit”. David Cameron’s complete incomprehension of the real world showed up in the BBC 1 Andrew Marr interview this morning when his reaction to being informed that a type 1 diabetic had died because he could not afford to keep his fridge running to keep his insulin cool due to a mistaken sanction by the DWP job centre. David Cameron showed not an inkling of concern, sympathy
Cameron’s mantra is that of the neo-lib world: ” I am financialised therefore I am”.
Anyone not part of this will be severely marginalised-in a few cases, marginalised to death.
It is very worrying – I agree.
I’m worried that I’ll end up walking through the street on the day after the election feeling like I did when John Major beat Neil Kinnock in the early 1990s.
The only real winner on the day will be ignorance born of lies.
In today’s Observer, Miliband is reported as making overtures to the Tory Lites; Radio 4 played Cameron telling people that vote for a Labour coalition would mean the end of ‘major investments projects’.
It is hard to know how this will end. But where I live (in a traditional Tory area), at least I can vote for something I agree with and it will be for the Greens.
As I’ve said before – Labour wooing Tories is not my cup of tea – especially when they should wooing the likes of me and they’ve got a long way to go for that.
At a national level we may see some sort of contorted coalition which may leave a lot of voters feeling completely disenfranchised.
As someone who suggested many moons ago in these comments that the real political argument was no longer between right and left but between neoliberal and anti-neolberal and predicted this would be reflected in political alignment, I’m very pleased to see Miliband wooing anti-neoliberal Tories as it appears to support my contentions 🙂 I’m not happy to see it happening under Miliband though, I regard him as far too undeveloped to lead a political party of any merit.
Are there any anti-neoliberal Tories William?
The Tories I talk to all believe in the deficit; that Labour caused the deficit and that the Government must run the country like good Tories run their home finances – balancing its own books (not that of the whole economy).
The latter is the biggest joke of all. Modern Tories believe that they should go into huge debt for housing and cars because private debt is OK; but hypocritically Governments should not be in deficit at all for anything.
So you predicited this would come to pass. Well done. But what are we – the anti-neolibs (is that what we are here?) going to do about it?
What is the counter narrative?
Eric Hobsbawm died thinking that the Left had not really got an answer to Thatcherism. Well I think that baton needs to be passed on and picked up by the anti-neolibs.
It seems from this article
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/18/tories-covered-up-eu-evidence-conservatives
that businesses have said fairly clearly that leaving the EU would be seriously harmful to the UK economy. But the coalition has tried its hardest to bury such assessments…
The fact that according to the polls and as widely predicted no party will be able to form a majority government after May 7th is I believe a reflection of the broken political system in Britain, aptly reflected in the vast increase in support for the minority parties. Only time will tell how many of the British electorate will turn out to vote on May 7th, though since the early 1970’s the figure has been stuck at about 60% of electorates actually voting in a general election. This I believe is a fair but damning indictment of the systems of government at the palace of Westminster. That roughly 40% of the electorate do not bother to vote tells it’s own tale and I suggest until we see true reform in British politics, particularly with our voting system, we will see no improvement in political engagement.
I just cannot understand why labour and the smaller parties in particular have not talked more if at all about the UK tax gap. I am aware there are vast differences between HMRC’s official figures and those offered by Richard in his report for PCS union. But whatever the figure, surely a more concentrated effort on tackling and reducing the tax gap is a realistic and in my opinion essential move for any political party, as well as being a more palatable alternative to the commitment from both the Conservatives and the Labour party to wholly unnecessary and ineffective austerity measures.
I agree with Richard that an in/out referendum on our membership of the EU would be a disaster for Britain, deflecting attention of everyone from important issues such as our economy and the NHS to name but two. At a time when our economy is in such a mess despite what the tories are telling us and likewise our NHS, the one topic the vast majority of the British public agree on is cracking under the pressure of demand for services as a direct result of the tories top down reorganisation and agenda for privatisation of the NHS, we can afford to redirect attention to an EU referendum. Our politicians and the British people must be focused on these much more important issues. There may well be a time for an in/out referendum on EU membership, but it is not now.
Richard
I’ve just registered to vote, first time since 1997. I too see trouble ahead but at least after May 7th I’ll know I’ve started to do my bit to try and stop it. Thank you for the kick up the bottom.
Thank you!
The Tories’ Lloyds retail share sale proposal as announced today (and ignoring some of the recent policies like the repugnant extension of right-to-buy policy) is again a policy directly aimed at the better off in our society. We all helped to bail the banks out in 2008 but Mr Cameron now wants to redistribute these shares, not to everyone, but to a fairly small subset of the population already familiar with dealing in shares and comfortable with the risks-i.e. the much better off. The upper limit of £10,000 further confirms this. No rational investor with a spare 10 grand floating around would take a punt on a volatile stock such as Lloyds unless he/she had a diversified stock portfolio of somewhere in excess of £200,000. So not your typical “hard-working family”.
Precisely
As one party has said: “Sadly, unscrupulous politicians, fully aware of the truth of the matter, still attempt to deceive.”.
That appears on p.41 of a certain party’s manifesto. It seems very apt, though probably not intentionally so. (Yes, UKIP’s.)
is it possible we could in the UK could have a written constitution. If so, this is what we need. A new political framework That the UK electorate would feel apart of.
“The Guardian summary, which appears reasonable to everyone but the spread betting market (which is much more Tory biased)”
You seriously think that a betting market can afford to be politically based?
I do worry about your political paranoia.
I think those spread betting are politically biased. Why on earth not? Most betting is partisan and spread betting’s appeal is, I think, more likely to be drawn from the right than the left
I think my comment well reasoned
The paranoia is all yours
People who spread bet don’t generally bet with their hearts.
The difference is accounted for the fact that the pollsters are looking at the here and now, and the spread firms are giving their view of where the seats will be on polling day. They are expecting a shift in sentiment in the next few weeks (probably anticipating the UKIP vote collapsing).
If they get it wrong they get hammered.
Richard,
An interesting insight. We are all increasingly aware of the insidious nature of neo-liberalism, but I hadn’t considered spread-betting.
Does this mean there’s a way of “beating the market” here, that is, if they have over-estimated Tory support due to their natural – or should I say unnatural – bias?
A good way to fill progressive coffers, with a maybe a little left for celebratory drink!
Amusing idea
written constitution is the way forward it will revolutionize politics, bind together the nation, give us focus, structure and power.
The USA has a written constituion but it has been subverted by the very people it enabled.
There is a lesson there. They wanted to escape royalty but ended up generating their own kind of royalty based on money instead.
Lincoln would be aghast at what he saw now; Roosevelt too.
I think a UK constitution would have a social conscience
Increasingly, as the Tory campaign gets nastier, the biggest fear that I have is that of all the parties, the Tories know us – the British people – better than any one else.
They know how to lance our pet hates, jealousies and resentments and get them to ooze out. And they also know how to divide and conquer. And too many of us fall for it time after time.