It’s been reported this afternoon that:

Senior civil servants have voted by 4-1 in favour of industrial action over the Government’s controversial pension reforms, increasing the prospect of a strike by millions of workers at the end of the month, it has been announced.

The FDA union said that in a 54% turnout of members, 81% were in favour of industrial action and it was likely they will now be called on to strike as part of the TUC’s day of action on November 30.

The union, which represents 18,000 senior civil and public servants, including tax inspectors, special advisers, government lawyers, crown prosecutors and diplomats, said the Government needed to reflect why such senior staff felt driven to vote to strike.

The evidence that this is a government wholly out of touch with reality mounts by the day. I think this move unprecedented.

 

I was speaking at #OccupyNorwich yesterday. One person who joined the audience, with his wife, graphically explained what is wrong with the economy.

A youngish man, in his late 20′s I’d guess, he was angry. He’d done everything society had asked of him. He’d got good GCSE and A levels, done a practical degree (pharmacy) and was now working as a chemist – the sort of skill society undoubtedly needs. his wide was working too. But despite that they cannot buy a house and so feel unable to start a family because of the uncertainty rented accommodation provides. And he had no idea when he might do that: the level of deposit demanded was so high that after paying rent the obstacle to purchase seemed insurmountable.

Why was it that this was so? he demanded of me.

And I had to agree he was right to make the demand, although it was not in my gift to put things right. And yet we can put things right.

There is no doubt at all that current house prices are massively over-inflated. That is because banks lent too much on the security of land. And yet to restrict lending now does not of course help this man and his wife.

It’s also because we did not tax housing enough, either through land value taxation, stamp duty, capital gains taxation and most especially inheritance tax, which is absurdly low. All have contributed to the over-pricing of land.

Giving tax relief for those buying property to let when it is denied t those borrowing g to ht has also over-inflated prices at the low end of the market, enormously. Buy to let interest releif has to go.

Being too lax with overseas landlords, and landlords holding property through offshore companies has also mean a major error of judgment. HMRC has failed in its duties here.

And as I have argued, giving tax relief to let 500,000 properties (at least) sit vacant is crazy: empty properties should be taxed at up to five times normal rates (having allowed for absence for sickness) to raise revenue and force property into the market.

But most of all, the simple fact is that wages are too low and property prices are too high. We can’t deflate without failed banks and recession. So we have to reflate, and that means we positively need wage inflation in this country whilst we do at the same time ensure house prices don’t rise by building significantly more homes to meet demand, so holding donw prices by meeting demand.

Inflation frightens people, I know, and someone always raises the spectre of Zimbabwe when it is mentioned, but that’s ludicrous. The economic environment created by a despot intenmt on destroying his economy is hardly a basis for rational comparison. And the fact is that right now the debt that banks and governments have created cannot be repaid: it’s pointless pretending that might be possible. In that case there are, as I’ve suggested five ways of tackling this issue. They are:

1) Inflate our way out of this situation, with the debt being devalued into a manageable sum (historically this is how most debt has ever been repaid)

2) Default – which has unknown consequences;

3) Forgiveness - which is planned default;

4) Enforced saving (which is not the same as austerity) but which directs much saving into government debt to ensure funding remains possible;

5) Closing the tax gap – i.e. collecting the money due to government to help manage debt;

6) Social breakdown – which many now see as a very high risk indeed.

I’m going to comment separately today on why collecting tax is a Keynesian solution - because it is. But right now I’ll concentrate on the first three.

Default or forgiveness is likely in some cases – such as Greece and Italy. Ireland and Portugal will eventually follow suit. But for the UK that is unlikely. Here inflation is the answer. So long as wages are allowed to rise with prices and land supply is increased by public building and enforced purchase of land banks from property companies refusing to use them if need be so that house prices are kept down then inflation firstly writes off debt and secondly restores order to markets corrupted by excessive money creation. This is a powerful social advnatage.

But yes, it’s true that some people’s savings will suffer in the process. I agree that’s true. And it is a price well worth paying to avoid social mayhem or war. We can survive iinlfation, quite easily. We cannot survive war.

So let’s be realistic about the choices we make now. Savings savers may not be possible is we save society –  and yes, decent state pensions may be required as a result. But that we can afford.

 

Great letter from Caroline Lucas in the Observer this morning.

I am sure many in the Labour Party will wonder what it is that’s stopping Labour taking her position:

Ed Miliband’s article was an object lesson in mealy-mouthed prevarication. On the one hand, he acknowledges that the protesters pose a challenge to politics to close the gap between their values and the way the country is run. On the other, he dismisses their “long list of diverse and often impractical proposals”.

I should love to know which he finds most “impractical”: their call for an end to global tax injustice, or perhaps their proposal that our democratic system should be free of corporate influence? Or maybe it’s their support for the student demonstrations this week, or the strikes planned for 30 November?

Until he can demonstrate which side Labour is on, Miliband’s assertion that “the Labour party speaks to that crisis and rises to the challenge” will remain hollow rhetoric.

Indeed, the real challenge that the occupiers present to politicians like Miliband is that they are staging the debate that mainstream parties have been studiously avoiding since the economic crisis started – the question of how to completely refocus the values and goals of our economic system, rather than trying to get back to business as usual as fast as possible.

I was proud to have been asked to address the Occupy rally in London last weekend, and proud to be able to say the Green party stands fully behind their goals. It’s a pity that Labour can’t do the same.

Caroline Lucas

MP for Brighton Pavilion

Leader, Green party

Disclosure: I have co-authored with Caroline.

 

Nov 122011
 

See you there tomorrow! 1pm.

And for those interested I am on Radio Norfolk at 8am in the morning too.

 

Gillian Tett and Paul Mason sem to suggest there are three solutions to our economic crisis in their discussion in the Guardian today. They are inflation. to write off the debt; default which writes off the debt, or forgiveness that is in effect consensual default.

The alternative, they seem to agree, is war.

I’d add a fourth option, which is, of course, collecting tax that is due which has much the same effect as when during the post war period growth and debt repayment were managed in no small part by collective saving in government bonds.

A fifth option would, of course, be redirecting £80bn of pension saving a year in the UK into such bonds, in no small part (which would also give a higher rate of return and substantially lower investment cost for pensioners than they have enjoyed for a decade or more). I think both ptions can be, and should be, added to Tett and Mason’s option list.

But the real point is a vey simple one. The risk of war as a result of the current chaos and a resultant increase in far right nationalist protectionism built around dogmatic pursuit for ideological reasons of the extreme austerity of the sort Osborne proposes is very real: it is something I mentioned on this blog recently.

In the face of that it is the duty of politicians to be courageous. They have to now tackle feral finance. They have to push through measures that constrain out of control markets. They have to take radical action to claim control over some capital made in the course of creating the current chaos as a price of containing it, whether that be by wealth taxation, direction on pension fund investment, the introduction of capital controls to constrain bank abuse or direct measures to reclaim illicit funds in tax havens through direct actions against the banks based in London elsewhere that knowingly control those funds with the deliberate intent to undermine democracy in the interests of the 1%.

When this crisis has reached the stage where serious discussion of the breakdown of society into social chaos and war has hit the mainstream news pages then action to defend ordinary people, democracy and the mixed economy that has overall served us so well is essential.

Politicians who fail in that task now fail us all.

 

Gillian Tett and Paul Mason are interviewed in the Guardian this morning. Paul Mason is his usual sound self. What worried me was Tett’s response to the economic crisis. The relevant quotes are:

Were you surprised to see two European leaders replaced by technocrats?

Gillian Tett: No – the situation calls for very firm, forward-looking action that is almost impossible in a rowdy democratic political system at the moment.

The problem is you neither have anybody who has the authority to force a solution, nor do you have sufficiently free markets and genuine democracy to get a bottom-up solution. So you’re caught in this limbo-land where you stagger from one mini-crisis to another.

I could give the benefit of the doubt, but this seems far too dangerously like an endorsement of a totalitarian solution to the economic crisis for my liking.

A democratic solution is possible. I fully admit it will require courageous politicians, which is exactly why I have written The Courageous State. But even hinting at totalitarianism now is expectionally dangerous.

I hope Tett retracts the hinted suggestion, very soon. But maybe she won’t. As Larry Elliott argued within the last week, the suspension of democracy in Europe and the passing of power to a tiny elite of technocrats

 

 

 

The Information Commissioner has finally ruled that Andrew Lansley has broken the law on two occasions in the last year by refusing to issue information properly requested under Freedom of Information Requests.

As the Guardian reports:

The information commissioner, Christopher Graham, has ordered the health secretary to publish the Department of Health’s own risk assessment of the potential pitfalls involved in his radical restructuring of the NHS in England.

Lansley’s Department of Health had refused to disclose, saying to do so would:

deter from full, candid and proper deliberation of policy formulation and development

That’s utterly absurd. As Clare Gerada of the Royal College of General Practitioners (disclosure: my wide is a member) said:

The RCGP, among others, have been concerned for a year about the risks associated with the DH’s plans to ‘liberate’ the NHS; risks such as the increased costs involved, fragmentation of services, and widening of health inequalities – all things that poll after poll has showed that health professionals are worried about. I’m looking forward to seeing what this document says because it could vindicate people like myself who have been speaking out for patients for a year now.

I agree entirely: what Lansley’s actually saying is that he wants the law to go through without knowing just how destructive it will be for the NHS. The fact he was so keen to hide the risk – keen enough to break the law twice – is sure indication of how destructive he knows his plans are, and makes me even more worried for the future of healthcare on this country.

 

The Wall Street Journal has reported:

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign rating on the Isle of Man from triple-A, the firm’s highest rating, citing the British crown dependency’s external vulnerabilities and lack of monetary flexibility as credit weaknesses.

S&P lowered the Isle of Man’s local and foreign currency long-term sovereign ratings one notch to double-A plus, which denotes high credit quality, from triple-A, which denotes the highest credit quality. The outlook is stable.

So just as the Isle of Man is running into real trouble with a shortage of VAT, a shortage of offshore business as recession hits the world and as demand on its public finance increases so that borrowing becomes a real prospect for the first time S&P goes and downgrades it, spoiling their perpetual argument that they can always borrow their way out of their crisis (although that would require UK consent, a change in their law and decidedly gullible lenders).

Amusingly, the WSJ adds:

S&P noted the island’s ratings could come under pressure if its offshore financial sector loses business to competitors, without offsetting economic and fiscal adjustments. Isle of Man has a high income level, strong fiscal balance sheet and political stability, but the firm noted the island’s ratings are constrained by its undiversified small economy, which makes it more vulnerable to external shocks. The firm also said it expects GDP per capita growth to be lower over the next few years, in part due to lower growth in the U.K.

Or the VAT crisis has really hit home and tax haven business has little prospect for growth. I make no apologies for either if I’ve had any influence at all. And in conclusion they say:

However, the island’s ability to diversify its economy further away from financial-sector-related activities could potentially trigger an upgrade, S&P said.

Try Plan B, I say. I wrote it for Jersey, but you’re welcome to it. Looks like S&P are saying it’s time to look at it.

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