What do you expect?

 Economics  Comments Off
Aug 162010
 

The FT reports this morning that:

The strength of Japan’s economic recovery came under question on Monday as second-quarter growth figures came in sharply below economists’ expectations. Growth in the country’s gross domestic product slowed to an annualised, seasonally adjusted pace of 0.4 per cent in the three months ended June 30. That was far below the revised 4.4 per cent pace posted in the first quarter and economists’ predictions of 2.3 per cent for the latest period.

Let’s take a reality check here, shall we?

When the G20 committed itself to recessionary economic policies in June why does anyone think we’re going to be seeing any serious growth in major exporting locations such as Japan?

If you choose to kill growth then growth dies – that’s what happens.

George Osborne please note.

Aug 162010
 

I’ve always had major problems with pension sell offs.

I have even greater problems with them when the person to whom a pension fund is sold is itself sold – at a considerable loss.

The Paternoster Group – which has specialised in buying out defined benefit pension plans – is up for sale according to the FT. The future of all whose well being depends on it must be at risk as a result.  Treating pensions as commodities in this way is unacceptable. Serious reform is needed. It’s an issue I hope to get to, soon.

Aug 162010
 

I noted the reply Colin Powell, the senior adviser to the government of Jersey, sent me regarding my requests for further information about transparency and accountability in that island last Friday.

Events ran away with me that day and I failed to reply to Colin then, but did so yesterday. This was my reply.

I am looking forward to more comprehensive answers on issue of substance this time.

Dear Colin

Many thanks for your email. I did indeed have a good holiday.

I admit to some disappointment on reading your mail. It seems you might either have not properly read my mail, or chose not to reply to much of what I asked. When the issue we are discussing is transparency that does seem to be unfortunate.

It is firstly unfortunate that when the whole reason for information exchange is to increase transparency in the world’s tax systems so that problems arising from tax evasion and tax avoidance can be addressed that you say that the IRS does not wish for data on the number of information exchanges it makes with Jersey to be made public and that other countries have expressed similar views. Since you are engaged in the OECD monitoring process on these issues can I ask you:

a) How you believe such secrecy will help make the Tax Information Exchange Agreement process transparent and accountable?

b) How you think that such secrecy will help public acceptance of the value of TIEAs?

c) How such secrecy will assist creation of the necessary deterrent effect of which TIEAs are a part?

d) Why you think such secrecy is appropriate and beneficial?

These questions are personal to you. They do not require the consent of others to permit you to answer and as such I hope you can address these issues.

It is also unfortunate that you avoided my suggestion that there are massive information hurdles that obstruct the process of using Tax Information Exchange Agreements. I assure you I am not alone in thinking this: very senior tax officials in many countries have shared this opinion with me. It is one reason why the UK did not rely on a standard TIEA with Liechtenstein: I think I can say with some confidence that HM Revenue & Customs did not believe a standard TIEA would work because of the those information hurdles I note below. These, of course, do not exist when the request has been made – which is what I think you seek to imply – but before it can be made. Those obstacles are that, as you know, the standard TIEA makes clear that to make a TIEA request a tax authority must provide or state the following:

(a) the identity of the person under examination or investigation;

(b) what information is sought;

(c) the tax purpose for which it is sought;

(d) the grounds for believing that the information requested is held within the jurisdiction of which request is made;

(e) to the extent known, the name and address of any person believed to be in possession of the requested information.

The reason for the low number of information requests becomes obvious immediately. By definition there is considerable secrecy within secrecy jurisdictions about trusts of all sorts. Determining from readily available sources the ownership and control of companies is almost impossible in most such locations, including Jersey. Many have official banking secrecy, and the combination of trust secrecy and nominee ownership and control in places such as Jersey creates de facto banking secrecy, as Switzerland correctly points out. In that case the chance of linking assets, such as a bank account, owned by a company which is in turn controlled by a trust of which a person, under investigation in a state with a TIEA with Jersey, may or may not be settlor and / or beneficiary is remote in the extreme. The existence of TIEAs is immaterial in that case: without a ‚Äòsmoking gun’ to trigger an enquiry under the Tax Information Exchange Agreement the reality is they have no practical value.

And yet you refused to answer the question about how Jersey may help create that smoking gun, which would tackle tax evasion. Why didn’t you answer that question? What does that say about Jersey’s attitude towards the prevention of tax evasion? I’d remind you of what I said in my first mail to you. I summarised the fundamental flaw at the heart of the Jersey secrecy jurisdiction as follows:

There is a more important issue though, which goes to the core of Jersey’s plans and suggests why there will remain considerable doubt about the good faith of Jersey in offering any [tax] scheme to the EU. This is that Jersey has not ever really acted as a good neighbour to any other jurisdiction, anywhere, with regard to tax. That is because of the combination of a number of factors.

The first is that Jersey persists in the view that a company incorporated in Jersey is not resident in the island even if its directors are located there, its registered office is there and all its book-keeping and other administrative functions are located there. This practice is contrary to any normal state law on tax residence, a point which Jersey persistently ignores. But there is more to it than that. Jersey maintains this is possible because despite all these indicators of residence it claims that if the substance of the transactions of the company, which prima facie appears resident in Jersey, are actually elsewhere then it is really tax resident in that other place where that substance occurs. There are however two obvious conditions that must be satisfied for this to be true.

The first is that Jersey satisfies itself that the company is indeed declaring itself resident in that other place and is paying tax there. However, Jersey never asks that question. Jersey does not say as it should:

“This company claims not to be “here” so it must be “somewhere” else, so let’s find out where that “somewhere” is and make sure they know about it before agreeing they’re not “here”.”

Instead it says:

“This company claims not to be “here” so let’s take their word for it and just assume they are “elsewhere” even though we have no clue where that “elsewhere” might be.”

This is the first fundamental flaw at the heart of Jersey’s corporate tax system.

The second is that Jersey makes sure that it is as hard as possible for the other place that is “elsewhere” but unknown to the Jersey authorities to secure the information they need to tax a Jersey company that undertakes the substance of its transactions in their territory, meaning it should be taxed there.

Jersey ensures that this near insurmountable obstacle, which will persist unchanged in the era of Tax Information Exchange Agreements because of the massive information hurdles they place in the path of an enquiring tax authority, still exists, and it does so deliberately. That is what makes Jersey a secrecy jurisdiction.

This was a serious allegation – but it is one I think to be true. But as I noted when writing earlier, if you can show it is wrong then of course I would have to change what I have written in Plan B. So might I reiterate that perhaps you might advise me as to the following:

1. What measure Jersey adopts to ensure that a company or trust registered in its domain but claiming to be resident in another jurisdiction is actually registered as resident in that other domain and is actually paying tax there?

2. What mechanisms Jersey has to advise another jurisdiction that a company or trust registered in Jersey is actually taxable in their jurisdiction?

3. If such mechanisms exist, how they work.

4. If such mechanisms do not exist can you please advise how you think that other jurisdiction where the Jersey registered company or trust is resident might establish that fact given the considerable prior information requirements that exist in Tax Information Exchange Agreements and the impossibility of securing the information necessary to make a TIEA enquiry from public domain information in Jersey?

In asking these questions again I note all you have to say on the Jersey Register of Companies. I regret what you say seems to me to be inconsequential if no useful information of any sort is available from that Register. This seems to be the case for all I have spoken to who have ever sought to secure data from it – only to find no question they sought to answer could be addressed using information on its public record. How does Jersey plan to tackle this problem? In particular, how does Jersey intend to meet requests for the most basic of information – such as accounts on public record, without which the Registers you run are, to be quite candid, useless, however competent they people you engage to run them might be?

Finally, I note the information you have supplied on the European Union Savings Tax Directive. I am disappointed that you do not hold some key data that seems essential to understanding this issue and the likely consequences for Jersey if reform were to take place. How are you able to make informed decisions without knowing the number of accounts where withholding occurs?

I look forward to your fuller reply

Best regards

Richard

 

Do you remember all the doom and gloom merchants form the City (and more especially, the political right) who predicted that if the volume of trading in he City was reduced by a financial transaction tax then the world as we know it would fall apart? All that was being said at about the turn of the year.

Now I note this in today’s FT and I quote at length in the public interest:

A slump in UK share trading, where volumes are on track to reach an eight-year low, is set to hit government coffers by more than £1bn ($1.6bn) this year.

According to a study to be published on Monday by Equiniti, the share registrars, trading volumes in 2010 have fallen two-fifths from their pre-crisis peak as market turmoil scared off investors.

The drop will reduce the government’s tax take from the City. It should collect this year about £3bn in the stamp duty reserve tax paid on each share transaction, down from the record £4.2bn it received before the crisis.

The trading slump is also likely to affect trading profits at some of the City’s biggest banks.

Equiniti estimated that this year, adjusting for changes in market valuations, shares worth just 1.46 times the value of the UK market will change hands. That compares with trading worth twice the market value in 2007, or 2.5 times the value of the entire UK economy.

So volume and value have fallen, dramatically.

And has liquidity collapsed as some predicted? No, it hasn’t.

Has the supply of capital to UK large business failed? No, it hasn’t.

Has the world stopped revolving as it seemed some would suggest. No, definitely not.

Because the truth is that this volume of share dealing is simply not needed to create effective markets.

The truth is that effective markets might actually benefit from considerably less dealing. Keynes suggested two trading windows of ten minutes a day might be sufficient. There’s a lot of sense in that. Calm reflection is what is needed for effective markets. We don’t have time for that. A little less liquidity would help no end. And a financial transaction tax might just help create it.

 

The Guardian ran an excellent article on Saturday  on the recent attacks mounted on The Spirit Level – the ground breaking book by Prof Richard Wilkinson and Prof Kate Pickett. Such attacks have been elad by the likes of the Taxpayer’s Alliance and, more surprisingly supposedly mainstream Tory think tank Policy Exchange.

I have read some of the attacks. I think them without foundation and academically and statistically weak . But as the Guardian notes:

Wilkinson was shocked by what he believes is part of a worrying trend in political discourse, also happening in the US, where a few people, often attached to right wing institutes, have set themselves up as professional wreckers of ideas.

"Do they even believe what they are saying?" he said today. "I suppose it doesn’t matter if their claims are right or wrong; it is about sowing doubt in people’s minds."

The authors fear the attacks have scuppered any chance of removing the inequality debate "from the left wing ghetto".

Wilkinson said: "It is now something for the left and we would rather have avoided that. People on the right will feel relieved knowing they don’t have to treat this seriously and will be happy to know it has been rubbished."

That is the nub of this. Equality is an issue for everyone – as Wilkinson and Pickett have proven. Everyone gains from it – of that I have no doubt. So of course it should not just be for the left. But now it is. A tiny coterie on the right have confirmed that equality is something they not only do not care about – but that it is something they do not believe in.

The same is true of other issues. The Tax Gap for example should be an issue for all in the UK. If it were tackled we might have better public services at lower cost and have lower tax, all at the same time. But the right dismiss it as an issue. They are only interested in the maximum of £1 billion that might be collected by tackling benefit fraud. Tax evasion is £70 billion a year.

The same is true if unemployment too: low unemployment benefits all. And yet the right is going out of its way to increase it as fast as possible.

Note too all the stories in the Observer this weekend about the enormous problem for so many people in securing housing. Again, this is an issue for everyone (I’m of an age where I know many apparently secure middle class parents who are fretting like mad about this one) but the ConDems sail on – ignoring the issue.

Which makes me note what Nick Clegg has to say today:

We are restoring a plethora of rights to liberty and privacy and have set out an ambitious programme for lasting political reform.

I agree that the aim is lasting reform. This government is intent on promoting the right of the individual – which is its definition of liberty. But it is not the right to liberty within society they are promoting, it is the right of the individual over society that they promote.

So the individual can speed now without fear of being caught by a camera. the right to speed for the irresponsible motorist comes ahead of the right of the child to life itself.

The right to wealth must come without responsibility to others or to pay tax attached.

The right to health is rationed so a few will make extraordinary profits at the expense of the rest of us.

The checks and balances – such as the Audit Commission -  are scarped to ensure profit profit is maximised.

The right to work is denied – so long as some can benefit from the removal of that right.

The right to a home – one of the most basic of rights, is undermined in the name of the market and the need to preserve baking stability.

This a the exercise of so called liberty without the exercise of morality.

This is the right to impose fear.

This is the thinking of the gated community.

This is the thinking of those who hate society.

And who hate government.

And who put themselves first, always.

This is thinking that no major religion has ever endorsed – because there is no moral basis to it.

This is thinking that the great enlightenment thinkers – Kant and Adam Smith come to mind – could not endorse.

This is thinking that threatens more than our well being, it threatens our society, our democracy, our political stability, in thinking term even life on earth.

This is the amorality of the right.

This is the ConDem government.

This is what the left has to challenge.

At least it looks like a barn door when set out like that.

Aug 162010
 

The FT reports this morning:

Fears the recovery in the UK housing market is losing ground will be bolstered by new data showing a £1bn ($1.6bn) drop in the value of work on new housing developments in the months following the general election.

The underlying value of work starting on private residential projects slumped to £1.4bn in the three months to the end of July, compared with £2.5bn in the three months before the election, according to the latest Glenigan Index, the publication that tracks the construction industry.

Building is always a good barometer of what is happening ion the economy.

This news says three things.

The first is Labour’s plans were working.

The second is that the ConDem’s plans are seen as bad news.

The third is that double dip looks to be on its way.

Nothing Clegg or Cameron can say will change that.

 

I’ve been noting some questions I’d be asking of selected taxpayers if I was a tax inspector. The first two, asking about cash payments to public schools and private hospitals (for non-UK readers, note that public schools in the UK are, in fact, private – it’s a trap just set up to confuse you) are aimed at tax evasion. I’ve a few more of them to offer, but let’s look at avoidance for a minute.

A massive source of avoidance is artificial self employment – people who set up businesses that, in practice, have just one dominant client and who should really be on the payroll of that client. National insurance and PAYE are lost as a result and expenses are offset against the supposed self employed or corporate income(becasue companies are often used for this purpose) reducing the tax take that should result from what is in effect employment income.

The government has, unsuccessfully, tried to tackle this problem, and I have suggested some corporate solutions. Assuming Vince Cable isn’t interested in the reform of small limited companies though, what can be done? I suggest this question (a form of which I’d love to see incorporated in the tax return) be sent to all self employed people declaring turnover of less than £100,000 a year and to all companies and limited liability partnerships in the same income category:

Can you please supply me with either:

a) If your sales income is predominantly derived from invoiced sales (predominantly means 80% or more), a list of your top ten customers  showing the sums invoiced to each in the year together with a month by month summary of your cash takings if you have any, or

b) A week by week summary of your cash takings for the year and a a list of your top five invoiced customers  showing the sums invoiced to each in the year, if you have any.

Why ask? First to smoke out artificial self employments – which these questions would virtually kill overnight.

Second, to look for cash.

There’s no excuse for not asking this of all self employed people, now. I’d expect the revenue yield to be significant. If only because people would stop abusing rather than take the risk of being found out. And yes, I know there would be a cost. And yes I know HM Revenue & Customs could not process all the answers they’d receive. That’s not the point. The increase in compliance is the point – and provides the reward from the activity.

Thanks Sir Philip

 Blogging  Comments Off
Aug 152010
 

This blog got several hundred (yes, I mean several hundred) new subscribers on Friday.

The only obvious explanation is traffic coming here to read about Sir Philip Green.

I won’t say every cloud has a silver lining – because that’s just not true.

But it’s an amusing consequence, none the less.

 

I’m never quite sure what i think of Victoria Coren – although I’ll admit she’s attractive and knows how to play on it – so I usually give her writing a miss.

She was spot on with this though:

There is, of course, a valid debate to be had about the Film Council. There always was: between, essentially, the right-thinking people who understand why it needs to be there and the philistines who want to see it gone.

But please let’s not lose sight of the real problem. We can’t be fooled by such a basic piece of pier magician’s trickery. It’s not about films. Axing the UKFC is a brilliant move: a big coloured handkerchief to draw our eyes away from schools, hospitals, pensions and benefits.

We know what’s going on behind the conjuror’s back. The banks were bailed out with a trillion pounds of our money, which the government is now recouping by taking more of our money while the banks privatise their fat new profits. All public services cut. We’re losing everything. It’s like the Poe story about the murder weapon hidden in plain view: we can all see it, but we’re simultaneously blind. We’re sitting here talking about whether or not we like Ken Loach. If we keep on, we’re actually going to start believing in this imaginary "waste".

Clint [Eastwood], Michael [Winner]: they are DELIGHTED for us to argue the specific toss on the Film Council. All the time we’re doing that, we’re not pointing out that the only "waste" is what the banks did with our money, and are doing again, while we somehow, inexplicably, fail to launch a revolution in the street.

True.

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