It has been one heck of a week. One successful parliamentary debate. I’ve met about 45 MPs. One report on VAT published. Country-by-country reporting has made big progress. And more besides.

The result is though I am behind with work. Something has to give. That may well be comments on this blog over the next few weeks. They take a lot of time. And it’s time I haven’t got right now, so if your comment takes time to be posted, I apologise in advance. I will not be paying them as much attention as usual.

And if I delete it then it will be because I will be applying the moderation policy strictly – and the usual libertarian nonsense that passes for comment will be deleted, without conscience because let’s face it, much that many people seek to say here say is adequately addressed by this video.

Or, as one Guardian columnist put it to me this week (and I’ve tidied the language a bit for the sake of saving blushes):

I write my stuff and never look at it again. I never, ever read the comments on the web. Finding the few that are worthwhile could never justify the effort.

I have some sympathy with that. As I also do with the discussion I heard on Radio 4 today suggesting that unless a person uses their real name to comment ion a blog – and gives some evidence to a moderator that it really is their real name – why let them comment anyway? I suspect that would be just as onerous as hitting the delete button. But I’ll muse on it. When I get the time.

 

Great news from the USA. A provision in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, passed in the Senate yesterday, will require energy and mining companies registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to report payments to foreign governments for the extraction of oil, gas, and minerals on a country-by-country basis.

Oil, gas, and mining revenues are critically important economic sectors in about 60 developing countries which, despite abundant natural resources, rank among the lowest in the world on poverty, economic growth, and governance assessments. With this information the citizens of these countries will be able to demand accountability for government corruption and ensure that a fair price is paid for their natural resources. As such the new disclosure is a vital weapon in tackling the problems arising for so many countries suffering from the so-called "resource curse."

The new reporting requirements will apply to petro giants such as Exxon Mobile, BP Corporation, Chevron, Conoco Philips, Royal Dutch Shell, and Hess.  Taken together, the oil and gas companies expected to fall under the new regulation accounted for approximately $2.2 trillion in sales and $200 billion in profits last year.

The measure is not full country-by-country reporting. But it is an enormous step forward, is based on the country-by-country reporting idea, and is a massive credit to Publish What You Pay who worked tirelessly for this.

I also happen to think it’s another step towards the inevitability of full country-by-country reporting – and given it’s still only 7 years since I created the concept that’s massive progress.

Asymmetry is costly

 Economics  Comments Off
Jul 162010
 

The FT reports:

The Securities and Exchange Commission has announced a $550m settlement of its civil fraud case against Goldman Sachs in a move that closes the most high-profile regulatory action related to the financial crisis.

The SEC called the penalty the largest ever by a Wall Street firm and Goldman acknowledged using incomplete information in its marketing materials and said it would “reform its business practices”.

What was the issue? Supplying asymmetric data.

What’s the solution?

Transparency.

It pays.

Jul 162010
 

I launched Plan B for Jersey a couple of weeks ago. Now I have my first official response, from Colin Powell, the  Adviser on International Affairs in the Chief Minister’s Dept, but whom many would say is the architect of Jersey as an secrecy jurisdiction over a vey long career in the island.

In the interests of promoting the transparency I espouse I publish his mail in full

Dear Richard

Your Plan B for Jersey raises a number of issues that I imagine others may comment on. However as in my capacity  as Adviser on International Affairs in the Chief Minister’s Dept I am the person primarily involved in negotiating TIEAs and DTAs I must take issue with you on your following statements -

Page 8 – Jersey
"2. Has not evidenced compliance with international standards by actually exchanging tax information with almost any partner it has signed a TIEA with: indeed many have yet to come into operation."

"3. Has not, having reached basic compliance with the OECD standards seemed to be making haste to sign more, compared to the panicked rush to sign twelve before the April 2009 deadline."

The current position regarding TIEAs and DTAs is set out in the attached document which is on the States web-site. Of 16 TIEAs signed 13 are in force. Those not in force include France where we have been waiting for 15 months for them to complete their parliamentary procedures for ratification and New Zealand who have taken 12 months so far. Of those in force to-date we have had a number of requests for information from 5 of the jurisdictions.

We have volunteered to be reviewed under the Global Forum Peer Review process – as you know Jersey is one of four vice-chairs of the Peer Review Group -  for both Phase 1 (laws and regulations) and Phase 2 (effectiveness). The latter is only being undertaken – in the first three years of the Peer Review Programme the majority of the 90 plus members of the Global Forum are being reviewed for Phase 1 only – where jurisdictions are able to provide evidence of sufficient information exchange for effectiveness to be properly addressed. Part of the Phase 2 review has involved the countries with whom TIEAs have been entered into completing a questionnaire on their experience in requesting information from Jersey.

You will see from the attached document that we have a significant number of agreements in the pipeline, all with OECD or G 20 jurisdictions. The delay in getting these agreements signed rests entirely with the countries concerned, largely because of the need to get their Foreign Affairs Ministry clearance of a TIEA that has been agreed between ourselves and the tax authorities of the countries concerned. The worst example of delay is that with Italy where we initialled the TIEA with the Italian tax authorities in April 2009 and we are still waiting for the Italians to give us a date for signing.

I hope you will find it possible to amend your paper to reflect the foregoing.

One of the key elements in the Peer Review process is testing the availability/accessibility of information on beneficial ownership. This is also an aspect being addressed in discussions taking place regarding the FATF Recommendations on AML/CFT which I am involved with wearing the hat of Chairman of the Offshore Group of Banking Supervisors. In this connection I was surprised to read on page 9 of your paper that Jersey "has deliberately given up seeking information on beneficial ownership of companies". The present position, which has been assessed by the IMF and the Peer Review assessment team through their on-site visits, is that beneficial ownership is required at the time of company incorporation and, under the AML requirements, all service providers are required to know who the beneficial owners are of the companies they administer whether they are Jersey or non-Jersey incorporated. We have had requests for information on the beneficial ownership of companies in accordance with the terms of the TIEAs we have entered into and we have been able to respond to those requests to the satisfaction of the requesting authority.

Kind regards

Colin

None of this is news to me, of course. And none, as far as I can see does in any way invalidate what I wrote because I am in the substance of effective, realistic, and cooperative information exchange which is likely to have meaningful impact on the rate of tax compliance of those using structures registered in Jersey – which I contend is likely to be low  since as a secrecy jurisdiction Jersey refuses to tax many of those structures in Jersey on the basis that it claims they are “elsewhere” but does at the same time fail to ask where that other place that is “elsewhere” might be or tell that place of the structures existence so that they might tax it. I therefore contend that such exchange is highly likely to occur, for that very reason.

But it would be wrong to refuse to change the paper if there is evidence that it should be altered, so again in pursuit of transparency I publish my reply, in full:

Dear Colin

Thank you for your mail and I trust you are well.

I note your concerns but think you have failed to understand what I mean by transparency. I mean that the substance and not the form of transparency must be in existence of a place is to properly claim itself to be transparent and I regret to say I have seen no evidence that this is the case in Jersey.

As you will have noted in Plan B, I summarised the fundamental flaw at the heart of the Jersey secrecy jurisdiction as follows:

There is a more important issue though, which goes to the core of Jersey’s plans and suggests why there will remain considerable doubt about the good faith of Jersey in offering any [tax] scheme to the EU. This is that Jersey has not ever really acted as a good neighbour to any other jurisdiction, anywhere, with regard to tax. That is because of the combination of a number of factors.

The first is that Jersey persists in the view that a company incorporated in Jersey is not resident in the island even if its directors are located there, its registered office is there and all its book-keeping and other administrative functions are located there. This practice is contrary to any normal state law on tax residence, a point which Jersey persistently ignores. But there is more to it than that. Jersey maintains this is possible because despite all these indicators of residence it claims that if the substance of the transactions of the company, which prima facie appears resident in Jersey, are actually elsewhere then it is really tax resident in that other place where that substance occurs. There are however two obvious conditions that must be satisfied for this to be true.

The first is that Jersey satisfies itself that the company is indeed declaring itself resident in that other place and is paying tax there. However, Jersey never asks that question. Jersey does not say as it should:

This company claims not to be “here” so it must be “somewhere” else, so let’s find out where that “somewhere” is and make sure they know about it before agreeing they’re not “here”.

Instead it says:

This company claims not to be “here” so let’s take their word for it and just assume they are “elsewhere” even though we have no clue where that “elsewhere” might be.

This is the first fundamental flaw at the heart of Jersey’s corporate tax system.

The second is that Jersey makes sure that it is as hard as possible for the other place that is “elsewhere” but unknown to the Jersey authorities to secure the information they need to tax a Jersey company that undertakes the substance of its transactions in their territory, meaning it should be taxed there.

Jersey ensures that this near insurmountable obstacle, which will persist unchanged in the era of Tax Information Exchange Agreements because of the massive information hurdles they place in the path of an enquiring tax authority, still exists, and it does so deliberately. That is what makes Jersey a secrecy jurisdiction.

Now I accept this is a serious allegation – but it is one I think to be true. But if you can show it is wrong then of course I would have to change what I have written in Plan B. So perhaps you might advise me as to the following:

1. What measure Jersey adopts to ensure that a company or trust registered in its domain but claiming to be resident in another jurisdiction is actually registered as resident in that other domain and is actually paying tax there?

2. What mechanisms Jersey has to advise another jurisdiction that a company or trust registered in Jersey is actually taxable in their jurisdiction?

3. If such mechanisms exist, how they work.

If such mechanisms do not exist can you please advise how you think that other jurisdiction where the Jersey registered company or trust is resident might establish that fact given the considerable prior information requirements that exist in Tax Information Exchange Agreements and the impossibility of securing the information necessary to make a TIEA enquiry from public domain information in Jersey?

Next, turning to evidence I need to revise Plan B, if appropriate, on the substance of information exchange, rather than the existence of its form, might you provide me with the following information:

1. The number of information exchange requests received from each jurisdiction with which Jersey has a DTA or TIEA since the time that the agreement in question was signed, breaking that data down by year;

2. The number of such requests that actually resulted in information being supplied, and the average delay in supplying such data, again broken down by jurisdiction and year.

Please for this purpose exclude data exchanges for the purposes of the European Union Savings Tax Directive, but with regard to that directive please instead supply the following:

1. For each jurisdiction to which data has been supplied since 2005, with all information split by year:

a. The number of accounts for which income details were supplied in full because information exchange had been permitted by the Jersey bank customer;

b. The total income so declared;

c. The number of accounts for which income details were not supplied because permission to do so had not been granted by the Jersey bank customer;

d. The total tax withholding paid over (either before or after Jersey took its 25% share, but please make sure which number is reported) as a result of permission to exchange information having not been granted by the Jersey bank customer.

2. Details of the form in which reporting is made e.g. is this by way of paper record, spreadsheet file, computer database listing, etc., and please specify if a computer file if the data in question is readily searchable or in static form?

Thank you for your assistance. On receipt of this information I will, of course, then be willing to consider revising Plan B if appropriate.

Best regards

Richard

I look forward to receiving Colin’s reply.

 

I was at a Smith Institute debate this morning, focusing on the budget. Several insights flowed from the debate, which was chaired by my Green New Deal colleague Larry Elliott and featured Chris Wales, onetime special adviser to Gordon Brown, plus Stephen Timms MP for Labour, Lord Newby for the Lib Dems, Kwasi Kwarteng MP for the Tories and Mike Devereux from the Oxford Centre for Business Taxation.

As I said during the discussion, what struck me was how closely I agreed with the comments made by Mike Devereux (yes, I did write that). What he, in essence, said was that the debate between the parties was largely inconsequential on deficit reduction. All parties say it has to be done; all say it has to be done reasonably soon, and all think a combination tax increases and spending cuts are essential. The difference between Labour’s preferred 65% cuts / 35% tax and the Tories 80% / 20% is 1% of GDP in reality according to Mike. And as he put it, candidly either way more than enough was being done to meet the requirements of the markets – if the promises are delivered.

And yet Mike, in making that comment walked round the elephant in the room – as did all others present in the debate. That elephant is the fact that this uniformity suggests there is remarkable agreement on the role government has to play in the current phase of this financial crisis. The implicit agreement is that it should exit the economy, stage right.

And this is what I fundamentally disagree with. I did, of course, say so. My point is simply this. People may (or may not) as Kwasi Kwarteng claimed intuitively think that government has been overspending and must rein back now, but this sentiment was more than adequately and accurately described long ago by Lord Keynes, who called it the paradox of thrift.

In essence, the instinctive reaction of households in the face of crisis, uncertainty and increasing debt is to scale back expenditure and to increase savings. That reaction is entirely rational, but it does, despite that rationality create the crisis we now see – to which none of the speakers referred. That crisis is that individuals are doing just what Keynes suggested they would do. They are saving more (even if that saving is evidenced by paying down their mortgage faster than strictly required whilst interest rates are low, because that qualifies as saving in these terms). This graph from the Office for Budget Responsibility shows it:

 

The UK household savings ratio has risen since the financial crisis developed, and is expected to stay high. That means people are not spending. That means there is a shortage of spending in the High Street. And that means companies will not invest. As Martin Wolf has pointed out the UK private sector savings surplus is running at something like $200 bn or £135bn a year as a result now (give or take is good enough here). This means, because these funds have remarkably little use elsewhere since all countries are all in the same boat right now, that these funds are being used to finance our own deficit, almost in its entirety, which is exactly why 90% of our debt is owned in the UK at this point in time.

In other words – the real macroeconomic issue of the moment – the one the whole panel ignored – and which the whole debate is ignoring – is the astonishing fact that we are quite able to fund our current scale of government spending and are doing so without difficulty – but the mechanism we are using to fund it is not called tax right now.

However, if we don’t want to call the current funding of the deficit tax – instead thinking of it as saving then the real debate is not about whether we need cuts – since it is apparent that the deficit is being funded and will continue to be funded for some time to come – but is instead how we actually use those funds we are choosing to lend to the government.

The Coalition plan is to spend that money on unemployment benefits since it is readily apparent that they want to put 1.5 million or more out of work and that the consequence will be a spiraling paradox of thrift with the result that we will move to depression from recession.

The alterative is that we make a very different choice. We could choose to spend that money on investment in our economy. We could do the Green New Deal – the only industrial strategy for the UK written in many a long year but the exact missing part of the equation that is required now.

The Tories presented a budget that assumes we want a small state. I guarantee that this sentiment in the country will change very rapidly and very soon when people realise what this really means. As one astute observer put it today, very few people in the UK realise just how dependent they and others are on state services and how much their absence will affect the quality of their lives – even if they still have a job.

I do not believe people want a small state. But equally I do not think we will get the state we want by hoping for it or by playing with some minor change to corporation tax rates or allowances. We will only get it by breaking the current epidemic of thrift that is ensuring we can pay for the deficit, but which is also going to be squandered on current expenditure which will provide no chance of paying a return on the debt.

An industrial policy will create jobs. It will stimulate the economy. It will send cash back into the private sector. It will encourage spending. It will recreate the tax base. It will reflate government revenues. It will close the deficit. It will create new jobs. If it’s a Green New Deal it will ensure we have enhanced energy security, so supporting the value of the pound as well as earning long term returns. And there will be jobs.

This is what macroeconomic policy is. Arguing about tax rates is little more than glorified micro.

Or to put it another way, the debate reminded me rather uncomfortably of the rather odd people who came to see me when I was a practicing accountant. They wanted advice on business structures and tax planning for their profits from the business they were about to start which was going to make mega-bucks. But when you asked them what it was going to do they didn’t know – they were going to get the structure right first, they said. That genuinely happened occasionally. And that is what economic debate is like in this country right now – focused on getting the structure right for business – but no one has the faintest idea what the business might be. Those potential clients who asked me those questions were destined to never make money. And the UK is destined to never get out of recession unless we know how we are going to earn the tax base which can restore government revenues.

George Osborne, Vince Cable and Alastair Darling have not addressed that key question. And they’re also ignoring the glut of savings we currently have – which need a productive home. So, as Chris Wales said this morning, we need a discussion on how big the state should be (much bigger than the Tories think is the answer) and how we should pay for it (more tax is the answer) but first we have to get people working.

The lack of an industrial policy is the elephant in the room right now.

And I’m happy to offer the Green New Deal in the absence of alternatives.

 

There’s a wonderful example of the blatant misinformation that the Right peddle on the Sovereign Society web site today.

Bob Bauman writes:

What a Load of Rubbish: Forbes Gives Forum to Far-Left Radicals

Last week at Freedom Fest in Las Vegas I had the honor to speak before 2,200 attendees on the opening panel — along with one Malcolm Stevenson "Steve" Forbes, Jr.

No doubt you know Steve is a publisher, businessman and since 1990, has been editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine, founded by his late father, whose name he bears.

Steve ran for president as a Republican in 1996 and 2000. His is generous with financial support for candidates such as Rand Paul (Ron’s son) who is running for U.S. Senate from Kentucky.

I enjoyed hearing Steve speak in Las Vegas and have read and agreed with his views many times. He is a rock ribbed libertarian and a fiscal conservative.

So what, you might ask? Well, this comes next:

Major Shock

Thus it was with shock that, a few days ago, I discovered that Forbes magazine which Steve heads recently published a blatantly biased article attacking offshore tax havens. Worse, it was presented as though it was fair and objective – but was neither.

Worse still, the article, which we can assume was commissioned by someone on Steve Forbes’ staff, was authored by one Richard Murphy, (below) the long-time head of a viciously left-wing, anti-tax haven and anti-offshore group, that calls itself the Tax Justice Network (TJN).

In the Forbes article Murphy presents totally biased TJN fabrications focusing on his personal choice of two arbitrary factors – what Murphy calls “secrecy” (and you and I would call financial privacy), and each jurisdiction’s alleged capability to move money in large quantities.

Nowhere in the Forbes article is Murphy’s well known anti-tax haven bias or his connection to the Tax Justice Network revealed.

Bob was really kind – he even borrowed the photo off this blog to show what a nasty looking sort of guy I am.

But hang on a minute – let’s look at those claims he makes, especially that claim that “nowhere in the Forbes article is Murphy’s well known anti-tax haven bias or his connection to the Tax Justice Network revealed.”

You can go to the article he’s referring to here. Note how it begins:

Even if you’ve worked for some years trying to prevent the problems caused by tax havens, people will still ask you which places are the best in the world to shield your money from taxes. Working with the Tax Justice Network I set out to provide a definitive answer.

Now I reckon that gives some clue I might know those guys at TJN. And given I say I’ve been working to prevent the problems caused by tax havens I’d have thought some hint of my inclinations might be revealed.

I guess Bob didn’t notice that.

Or could it just be that like most of his friends on the right he has a real problem with telling things as they really are, because he sure as heck did not do so here. The article is literally riddled with errors – even claiming I run TJN. In fact I haven’t been an officer of it for some years and it has always been run by John Christensen.

Best to check your facts Bob – because getting the details wrong undermines all you say. And in this case everything you say is wrong.

Jul 152010
 

Perhaps the most surprising attendee at the PCS drop in session I’ve just blogged was John Redwood MP.

If you read the report of the parliamentary debate on this issue on Monday you’d think (correctly I think, based on what was said there) that John Redwood believed there is really no such thing as tax avoidance, all that can be done about tax evasion is already undertaken and that tax debt is not the issue of debate.

But that is far from the case , it seems, for when John Redwood sat down with me, face to face, for quite a long discussion (the longest I had during the whole afternoon) a quite different picture emerged.

He had detailed questions on tax debt and what to do about it, and wanted more information on what makes the figure up.

He agreed cutting staff at HMRC when tax evasion is a real issue makes no sense.

He sought reassurance I had not included the use of ISAs in my figure for tax avoidance – and I assured him I had not.

He discussed the issue of double tax relief and I could rapidly demonstrate how on the accounts based analysis I had done this could not be the basis for the  tax gap I had highlighted.

We discussed if that gap could all be capital allowances as accounts and some of my critics imply – and he laughed at the implausibility of that. He knows – and said he knows  – that this is is also an issue of transfer pricing, of non-remittance of profits captured outside the UK, of genuine tax avoidance – which he admits exists – but towards which he takes a different moral stance.

And he agreed, as did all the MPs when presented with simple reasoned evidence, that the HMRC claim that the tax gap is £40 billion has to be far too low.

Of course we disagreed too, about tax rates, flat tax and much more.

And yet we also explored country by country reporting – which he said “as a business person” made instinctive sense to him.

I suspect we will meet again to discuss these issues.

What was interesting was this – that unlike so many who bring closed minds when commenting on this blog he had sufficient open-mindedness to come and discuss the real issues – and reflect as a consequence with much less certainty than he did in the House on Monday.

We didn’t agree on all issues. I suspect we never will. But if others who like to comment on my work would like to stop fixating on whether my estimate is right to the last £1 or £2 billion (which it is not – it is an estimate after all) and were willing instead to address the issues they’d see that for any government this matter is absolutely vital. Unless you correctly estimate and try to collect your whole tax base the credibility of your tax system is threatened – and that, as the MPs I discussed this with all agreed, threatens democracy itself.

It’s that fact that justifies the focus on this issue.

And it’s that fact and the need to raise revenue that amply justifies the need to address this issue.

And my suspicion is that this is a parliament that is going to demand much enhanced action to do just that.

 

I was at a PCS “drop in” briefing session on the tax gap at the House of Commons this afternoon.

A fascinating cross section of MPs attended from across the political spectrum – Tories being well represented.

At the end of the afternoon I was amazed to discover 40 MPs had attended. That’s an astonishing number for a small parliamentary briefing. And across the spectrum there was agreement on three things.

The first is there is a tax gap.

The second is that calculating the last penny’s worth is not the issue of importance. There was widespread belief that HMRC had understated the claim – and in fairness some scepticism from one quarter in the main that my number may be too big – but also agreement that wherever the real number was in the remaining range this is an issue of massive importance.

Which led  to the third point of agreement – which was that in the face of this cutting staff at H M Revenue & Customs makes no sense at all.

For an issue unheard of a few years ago that is a massive step forward.

NB Posted 12 hours later than planned due to IT problems

 

Clifford Singer at The Other Taxpayer’s Alliance has done a great job tearing apart the government’s new Spending Challenge website.

As he notes the libertarians and racists are out in force (why do they go together?)

And this has to be a prime example as a result of a waste of government money. Odd that.

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